NYSE: W

Wayfair (W) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$98.63+0.48 (+0.5%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

This week Wayfair introduced "Wayfair Delivers," a new brand platform built around a campaign featuring Matthew Stafford and expanded football partnerships, part of the company's broader push to sharpen its consumer positioning. The launch follows a Q2 2026 report in which net revenue rose 7.5% year-over-year, with U.S. revenue up 8.7% and orders up 6% year-over-year, alongside gross margin of 30.0% and contribution margin of 15.3%.

Wayfair closed at $98.63, up 0.5%, sitting between its 50-day average of $99.07 and 200-day average of $88.16, a mixed trend picture. The GekkoIndex reads 60.5, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, up 6.5 over the past five sessions. Shares trade 9.2% below Gekko Fair Value of $108.66, with a 52-week range spanning $55.60 to $119.98 and a six-month return of 37.9%.

Wayfair's next earnings date falls on 27 October, 28 days out and within a typical 20-trading-day holding window; its last report produced a 20.4% reaction versus an average absolute reaction of 12.3% across recent quarters. Options activity shows 4 unusual signals over the last 30 days, with call premium of $2,042,879 against put premium of $1,526,915. Seasonality over the next 20 trading days has averaged -14.2% across 5 years, rising in 1 of them, a pattern worth noting alongside consensus analyst coverage of 17 buy and 9 hold ratings among 26 firms.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

Wayfair price vs fair value

$108.66$98.63Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $98.63200-day averageGekko Fair Value $108.66

Wayfair quick facts

Market cap
$13.50B
P/E ratio
—
Forward P/E
25.8
EPS, TTM
−$2.43
Revenue, TTM
$12.90B
Profit margin
-2.5%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
3.00
Volume
2.21M avg 2.42M
1-year return
+16.1%
Typical daily move
±4.9%
Typical 20-day move
±15.1%
50-day average
$99.07
200-day average
$88.16
Next earnings
Oct 27 before open
Shares outstanding
116.0M
52-week range
$55.60$119.98

Wayfair swing-trade checklist

Wayfair scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive1 mixed2 headwinds

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $98.63 sits between the 50-day ($99.07) and 200-day ($88.16) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    60.5, Accumulation

    Reading 60.5 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    9.2% below

    Price is 9.2% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneysupportive

    Leans bullish

    Last 30 days: 4 unusual options signals.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 28 days

    Reports on Oct 27, 2026, 28 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalityheadwind

    −14.2% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −14.2% over 5 years, rising in 1 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Wayfair stock chart and price history

Wayfair closed at $98.63 on Sep 28, 2026, +16.1% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $55.60 to $119.98.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Wayfair share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$60$80$120NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep98.63

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−6.1%
3 months
+3.1%
6 months
+37.9%
1 year
+16.1%
The full W chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open W in Gekko

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About Wayfair

Wayfair sells home goods to shoppers across the United States and internationally through online retail. Its catalog holds around 33 million distinct products for the home, many sold under brands the company owns itself, spanning furniture, decorative accents, kitchenware, and supplies for home renovation projects.

Customers can browse and buy through several dedicated platforms Wayfair runs, including its namesake site along with Joss & Main, AllModern, Birch Lane, and Perigold. Each of these online storefronts offers its own selection within the broader home category, giving shoppers different entry points into the same overall catalog of furnishings and related goods.

Wayfair was established in 2002 and keeps its corporate headquarters in Boston, Massachusetts. Its shares trade on the NYSE under the ticker W.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Retail trade
Industry
Specialty stores
Website
wayfair.com

Wayfair GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Wayfair’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 60.5, in the Accumulation zone, up 6.5 points over five sessions.

010060.5Accumulation

Up 6.5 points over five sessions, from the Neutral zone.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying51+0.5%−0.5%+0.1%+14.8%
Accumulation (current zone)211+1.0%+2.9%+7.6%+3.4%
Neutral364+1.1%+1.6%+2.1%+10.8%
Distribution43−0.3%+2.4%+3.9%+18.7%
Selling3Too few readings yet

Average W share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the W price, zone by zone.Track W in Gekko

Is Wayfair stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Wayfair trades 9.2% below Gekko Fair Value of $108.66, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Wayfair shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$108.66

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026

9.2% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open W in Gekko

Wayfair insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Wayfair, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for W in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every W insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open W in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in W were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for W, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open W in Gekko

Buybacks

Wayfair has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Sep 30, 2025
$9.00M
As a share of market cap
0.07%

From company filings.

Unusual options activity last 30 days

4signals, 57% of the flagged premium in calls.

Latest: Bearish flow on Sep 23, $1.48M in unusual premium.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

5of the funds Gekko tracks hold W.

1added2opened2trimmed1sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko

Wayfair earnings: next date and track record

Wayfair reports on Oct 27, 2026, before the open (28 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.

6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±12.3%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−2.1%Nov ’24−9.7%Feb ’25+11.6%May ’25+13.0%Aug ’25+19.9%Oct ’25−11.0%Feb ’26−10.6%Apr ’26+20.4%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 4, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Wayfair reported a strong Q2 2026 with net revenue up 7.5% year-over-year driven by U.S. strength (+8.7%) and order growth (+6% y/y, +12% sequential vs Q1). Management highlighted accelerating share capture, improving active customers, modest AOV growth, and notable outperformance in specialty retail and luxury (Perigold). Gross margin was 30.0% of net revenue and contribution margin 15.3%. SOTG&A showed 100 bps of leverage y/y; adjusted EBITDA was $242M (6.9% margin), the best since 2021. Balance sheet had $1.1B cash and $1.6B liquidity including revolver availability. Management emphasized investments (Wayfair Rewards, Wayfair Verified, Stores, Delivery Plus) as core drivers of sustained, compounding growth and outlined a multi-year path toward double-digit adjusted EBITDA margins and long-term organic growth targets (eventually >10% and potentially toward 15-20% annually). Stores are early but promising (3 Wayfair stores, 2 Perigold stores open) and management indicated international rollouts are sequencing behind the U.S. Operational headwinds noted include soft Canada and U.K. markets and broader macro uncertainty; supplier dynamics and tariff-related cash flows were discussed but seen as unlikely to materially change marketplace pricing. Management sounded confident throughout.
Guidance
Third-quarter 2026 revenue guidance: high single-digit growth (management specifically provided this Q3 guide). (No other explicit numeric guidance beyond qualitative direction was given in the transcript.)
Risks flagged
Macro uncertainty including depressed housing turnover; weakness in Canada and the U.K.; supplier cost and inventory dynamics; potential volatility from tariff refunds (working-capital effects); historical convert settlements affecting GAAP net income; sequencing risk for international rollouts and stores.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 4, 2026$0.51
est $0.33
+54.5%$3.52B
est $3.47B
+1.4%+20.4%
Apr 30, 2026$0.26
est $0.28
−5.7%$2.93B
est $2.89B
+1.5%−10.6%
Feb 19, 2026$0.85
est $0.64
+32.8%$3.34B
est $3.30B
+1.1%−11.0%
Oct 28, 2025$0.70
est $0.46
+52.2%$3.12B
est $3.30B
−5.4%+19.9%
Aug 4, 2025$0.87
est $0.36
+141.7%$3.27B
est $2.97B
+10.1%+13.0%
May 1, 2025$0.10
est −$0.20
+150.0%$2.73B
est $3.13B
−12.7%+11.6%
Feb 20, 2025−$0.25
est −$0.01
−2,647.3%$3.12B
est $2.71B
+15.0%−9.7%
Nov 1, 2024$0.22
est $0.13
+69.2%$2.88B
est $3.05B
−5.4%−2.1%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Wayfair stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Wayfair is $123.34, +25.1% from the last close, from 26 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$123.34consensus 12-month target, +25.1% from the last close
Low $92High $156
Buy17
Hold9
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 26 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 28BernsteinBuy, maintained$125+26.7%
Sep 23Truist FinancialBuy, maintained——
Sep 10BernsteinBuy, maintained$125+26.7%
Aug 19Rosenblatt SecuritiesBuy, initiated$125+26.7%
Aug 14BernsteinBuy, upgraded$125+26.7%
+7.6%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
−14.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4.9%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Wayfair seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Wayfair averaged −14.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 1 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−15.0%2021+2.0%2022−33.0%2023−20.9%2024−3.1%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days−5.4%0 of 5
Next 10 trading days−12.9%0 of 5
Next 15 trading days−11.6%0 of 5
Next 20 trading days−14.2%1 of 5
Next 30 trading days−7.7%2 of 5

For scale, W’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 15.1%.

Wayfair market cap and key statistics

Wayfair’s market cap is $13.50B and revenue of $12.90B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$13.50B
Forward P/E
25.8
EPS, TTM
−$2.43
Gekko Fair Value
$108.66

Trading

Volume
2.21M
Avg volume, 20 days
2.42M
52-week high
$119.98
52-week low
$55.60
Shares outstanding
116.0M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$12.90B
Profit margin
-2.5%
Return on equity
0%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−55.1%

Risk and income

Beta
3.00
Typical daily move
±4.9%
Typical 20-day move
±15.1%

Wayfair stock news this week

1 headline about Wayfair from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.

Wayfair peers

Wayfair’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
WMTWalmart+0.8%Neutral5.0% below
COSTCostco Wholesale−0.2%Neutral12.6% above
TGTTarget+1.2%Neutral10.7% above
ORLYO'Reilly Automotive+0.8%Neutral6.0% below
CVNACarvana−5.0%Accumulation18.8% below
AZOAutoZone+1.2%Neutral28.3% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Wayfair stock FAQ

What is Wayfair’s market cap?

Wayfair’s market cap is $13.50B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $98.63, with 116.0M shares outstanding.

What is the Wayfair stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Wayfair is $123.34, +25.1% from the last close. Of the 26 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 17 rate it a buy, 9 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Wayfair stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Wayfair is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $98.63 is 9.2% below Gekko Fair Value of $108.66. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Wayfair report earnings next?

Wayfair is expected to report on Oct 27, 2026, before the market opens (28 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.82 per share on revenue of $3.37B. Wayfair beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 12.3% on average across the report.

What is Wayfair’s 52-week high and low?

Wayfair’s 52-week high is $119.98 and its 52-week low is $55.60; it closed at $98.63 on Sep 28, 2026, +16.1% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $298.00 on Nov 26, 2021.

Is Wayfair stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and smart money), 1 as mixed (trend) and 2 as headwinds (earnings risk and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

Is there unusual options activity in Wayfair?

Gekko flagged 4 unusual options signals in Wayfair over the last 30 days, with $2.04M of flagged premium in calls and $1.53M in puts. The latest, bearish flow, was on Sep 23, 2026 with $1.48M in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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