Insider buying last 90 days
$1.54Min 2 open-market purchases
| Filed | Insider | Type | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 | MAROONE MICHAEL E director | Purchase | $1.30M |
| Oct 5 | MAROONE MICHAEL E director | Purchase | $240K |
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
NYSE: CVNA
Carvana (CVNA) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Nov 4 close
$77.56+6.28 (+8.8%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryNov 4 closeCarvana's Q3 2026 results anchored the week's news: the company reported record retail unit sales with revenue surging 42.4%, though earnings missed estimates as higher logistics costs and interest rates pressured unit economics. Several analysts cut price targets even after what was described as a beat across major KPIs, while other coverage pointed to rising interest rates dampening used car demand and signaled possible downside risk in FY2027 if cost pressures persist. A separate item noted a new jersey patch partnership with Arizona Athletics. Filings disclosed a Form 13D/A and a Form 144, alongside shares withheld for an executive's taxes.
Shares closed at $77.56, up 8.8% on the day, sitting above both the 50-day average of $65.85 and the 200-day average of $68.94. One-month return stands at 21.4%, three-month at 13.5%, while six-month return is slightly negative at -0.4%. The GekkoIndex reads 39.9, placing the stock in the Distribution zone, down 22.9 points over the last five readings. Price sits 8% above Gekko Fair Value of $71.83.
Over the next 20 trading days, the next earnings date falls on 17 February 2027, outside this window. Smart money activity in the last 90 days shows 2 insider purchases and 2 Congress buys with 0 sales; unusual options signals in the last 30 days number 2, with call premium of $17,942,317 exceeding put premium of $6,975,496. Seasonality over 5 years shows a 6.5% average 20-day return from this point, rising in 3 of those years. Consensus among 15 firms stands at 14 buy, 1 hold, 0 sell, with a consensus target of $80.86.
Written by AI from the Nov 4, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Carvana price vs fair value
Close $77.56200-day averageGekko Fair Value $71.83
Carvana quick facts
- Market cap
- $85.06B
- P/E ratio
- 34.6
- Forward P/E
- 32.7
- EPS, TTM
- $2.08
- Revenue, TTM
- $27.45B
- Profit margin
- 6.2%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 3.65
- Volume
- 21.11M avg 11.08M
- 1-year return
- +16.7%
- Typical daily move
- ±4.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±17.4%
- 50-day average
- $65.85
- 200-day average
- $68.94
- Next earnings
- Feb 17 after close
- Shares outstanding
- 719.9M
Carvana swing-trade checklist
Carvana scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive1 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $77.56 sits between the 50-day ($65.85) and 200-day ($68.94) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexheadwind
39.9, Distribution
Reading 39.9 is in the Distribution zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valueheadwind
8.0% above
Price is 8% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 90 days: 2 open-market insider purchases; Congress 2 buys / 0 sales. Last 30 days: 2 unusual options signals.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 104 days
Next report Feb 17, 2027, 104 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+6.5% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +6.5% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Carvana stock chart and price history
Carvana closed at $77.56 on Nov 4, 2026, +16.7% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $54.46 to $97.38.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +21.4%
- 3 months
- +13.5%
- 6 months
- −0.4%
- 1 year
- +16.7%
The full CVNA chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open CVNA in Gekko
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About Carvana
Carvana runs an online marketplace where people across the United States can buy or sell used cars without visiting a traditional dealership. It is known for letting customers browse inventory, arrange financing, and complete a purchase entirely through a digital experience rather than an in-person sales process.
The company handles most stages of that process itself, from acquiring and reconditioning vehicles to arranging loans and offering related add-on products. It also runs its own delivery and pickup operations, giving buyers different ways to receive their vehicle, and continues to support customers after a sale is complete. In addition to its consumer marketplace, Carvana operates auction platforms where vehicles are sold separately from its main retail business.
Carvana was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona. Its shares trade on the NYSE under the ticker CVNA.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Retail trade
- Industry
- Specialty stores
- Website
- carvana.com
Carvana GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Carvana’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 39.9, in the Distribution zone, down 22.9 points over five sessions.
39.9Distribution
Down 22.9 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.
Reading for Nov 4, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 31 | +5.4% | +16.5% | ||
| Accumulation | 169 | +0.6% | +8.0% | ||
| Neutral | 300 | +1.1% | +2.0% | ||
| Distribution (current zone) | 88 | +2.3% | +6.4% | ||
| Selling | 9 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average CVNA share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Distribution readings averaged +1.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Distribution zone: Institutions potentially offloading. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the CVNA price, zone by zone.Track CVNA in Gekko
Is Carvana stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Carvana trades 8.0% above Gekko Fair Value of $71.83, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Carvana shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$71.83
Gekko Fair Value, Nov 4, 2026
8.0% Overvalued
At the end of Sep 2026 the price was 15.9% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open CVNA in Gekko
Carvana insider and Congress trading
Insiders filed 2 open-market purchases in Carvana worth $1.54M, and members of Congress disclosed 2 purchases and 0 sales, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
2trades disclosed: 2 purchases and 0 sales.
| Member | Amount | Disclosed |
|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna House, CA, purchase | $1,001 - $15,000 | Oct 9 traded Sep 11 |
| Ro Khanna House, CA, purchase | $1,001 - $15,000 | Oct 9 traded Sep 4 |
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Buybacks
Carvana has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $36.00M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.04%
From company filings.
Unusual options activity last 30 days
2signals, 72% of the flagged premium in calls.
Latest: Bullish flow on Oct 28, $18.25M in unusual premium.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
11of the funds Gekko tracks hold CVNA.
9added2opened0trimmed0sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko
Carvana earnings: next date and track record
Carvana reports on Feb 17, 2027, after the close (104 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Feb 17, 2027
Expected after the close, 104 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.38
- Revenue estimate
- $7.84B
5 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±10.6%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Oct 28, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Carvana reported Q3 2026 record results including 200,000+ retail units sold (870,000 annualized run rate), $8 billion in quarterly revenue ($32 billion annualized), $800 million adjusted EBITDA ($3 billion+ annualized), and $480 million net income. The company achieved 8 consecutive quarters of ~40% growth in a flat industry while maintaining margins approximately twice the industry average. Carvana holds just 2% used car market share, signaling significant runway ahead.
- Guidance
- Management targets 3 million units annually at 13.5% adjusted EBITDA margin as long-term goals. Near-term growth continues at approximately 40% annually. Expanding into new car sales via Stellantis partnership and AI/agentic commerce integration are cited as emerging growth drivers.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | $0.39 est $0.44 | $8.04B est $7.71B | +15.3% |
| Jul 29, 2026 | $0.42 est $0.42 | $7.38B est $6.90B | −7.0% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | $1.69 est $1.58 | $6.43B est $6.12B | −2.6% |
| Feb 18, 2026 | $4.22 est $1.09 | $5.60B est $5.27B | −5.2% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | $1.03 est $1.30 | $5.65B est $5.11B | −15.8% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | $1.28 est $1.17 | $4.84B est $4.58B | +15.9% |
| May 7, 2025 | $1.51 est $0.73 | $4.23B est $4.00B | +10.3% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | $0.61 est $0.17 | $3.55B est $3.32B | −13.0% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Carvana stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Carvana is $80.86, +4.3% from the last close, from 15 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$80.86consensus 12-month target, +4.3% from the last close
Now $77.56Avg $80.86
Low $72High $100
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 15 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | Citizens JMP | $85 | +9.6% |
| Oct 30 | Barclays | $82 | +5.7% |
| Oct 29 | Bank of America Securities | $72 | −7.2% |
| Oct 29 | Needham | $100 | +28.9% |
| Oct 29 | Morgan Stanley | $88 | +13.5% |
+6.4%average 20-day move after past Distribution readings
+6.5%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4.7%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Carvana seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Nov 4, Carvana averaged +6.5% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +7.6% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −0.4% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +1.3% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +6.5% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +10.7% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, CVNA’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 17.4%.
Carvana market cap and key statistics
Carvana’s market cap is $85.06B, with a P/E ratio of 34.6 and revenue of $27.45B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $85.06B
- P/E ratio
- 34.6
- Forward P/E
- 32.7
- EPS, TTM
- $2.08
- Gekko Fair Value
- $71.83
Trading
- Volume
- 21.11M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 11.08M
- 52-week high
- $97.38
- 52-week low
- $54.46
- Shares outstanding
- 719.9M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $27.45B
- Profit margin
- 6.2%
- Return on equity
- 54.7%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +85.7%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 3.65
- Typical daily move
- ±4.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±17.4%
Carvana stock news this week
Coverage of Carvana this week reads neutral: 0 positive, 3 neutral and 1 negative headlines.
- Options to buy Carvana (CVNA) shares at $90 were sold by Ernest C. Garcia II's entity.Stock Titan, Nov 4
- Form 13D/A Carvana Co. For: 3 November By Investing.comInvesting.com UK, Nov 4
- At $68.29 each, 4,451 Carvana (CVNA) shares were withheld for counsel Paul W. Breaux's taxes.Stock Titan, Nov 3
- Carvana: High Growth At The Cost Of Margins - More Risks AheadSeeking Alpha, Oct 30
- Carvana Stock After Q3 Earnings: Should You Buy, Hold or Sell?Zacks Investment Research, Oct 30
- CVNA Q3 Earnings Miss on Higher Costs Despite Record SalesZacks Investment Research, Oct 30
Carvana peers
Carvana’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| WMTWalmart | Neutral | 1.7% above |
| COSTCostco Wholesale | Neutral | 24.7% above |
| ORLYO'Reilly Automotive | Neutral | 0.9% below |
| TGTTarget | Neutral | 8.6% above |
| AZOAutoZone | Neutral | 13.6% below |
| WSMWilliams-Sonoma | Neutral | 35.5% above |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Carvana stock FAQ
What is Carvana’s market cap?
Carvana’s market cap is $85.06B at the Nov 4, 2026 close of $77.56, with 719.9M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 34.6.
What is the Carvana stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Carvana is $80.86, +4.3% from the last close. Of the 15 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 14 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Carvana stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Carvana is overvalued: the Nov 4, 2026 close of $77.56 is 8.0% above Gekko Fair Value of $71.83. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Carvana report earnings next?
Carvana is expected to report on Feb 17, 2027, after the market closes (104 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.38 per share on revenue of $7.84B. Carvana beat the earnings estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, moving 10.6% on average across the report.
What is Carvana’s 52-week high and low?
Carvana’s 52-week high is $97.38 and its 52-week low is $54.46; it closed at $77.56 on Nov 4, 2026, +16.7% over the past year.
Is Carvana stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (smart money, earnings risk and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend) and 2 as headwinds (gekkoindex and fair value). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
Is there unusual options activity in Carvana?
Gekko flagged 2 unusual options signals in Carvana over the last 30 days, with $17.94M of flagged premium in calls and $6.98M in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Oct 28, 2026 with $18.25M in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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