Insider buying last 90 days
$1.54Min 2 open-market purchases
| Filed | Insider | Type | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4 | Michael E Maroone Director | Purchase | $1.30M |
| Aug 4 | Michael E Maroone Director | Purchase | $240K |
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
NYSE: CVNA
Carvana (CVNA) Stock Analysis & Forecast
$65.11−0.73 (−1.1%)
Close on Sep 18, 2026. Page updated Sep 19, 9:17 pm ET.
Gekko Brief
AI summaryCarvana trades at $65.11, down 1.1%, sitting below both its 50-day average of $69.21 and its 200-day average of $73.08, with the shorter average also below the longer one. The GekkoIndex reads 68.4, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone. Price stands 12.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $74.71.
News this week centers on operational expansion alongside routine market commentary. Carvana announced the expansion of same-day vehicle delivery to the Twin Cities and brought inspection and reconditioning center capabilities to ADESA Charlotte, both pointing to continued build-out of its logistics and reconditioning footprint. One story noted the stock closed at $65.4 on 16 September, a -2.24% move versus the prior session.
Looking ahead, the next earnings date falls on 28 October 2026, after close, which sits outside a typical 20-trading-day hold window; the prior report on 29 July showed EPS of $0.42 matching estimates, with a -7% reaction, against an average absolute reaction of 11% and 6 beats in the last 8 quarters. Smart-money activity over the past 90 days shows 2 insider purchases totaling $1,544,982 and 1 Congressional buy with 0 sells; unusual options signals over the past 30 days number 2, with call premium of $3.5 million against put premium of $2.6 million. Seasonality over this stretch has averaged -15.9% across 5 years, with gains in 1 of those years, a pattern worth noting alongside analyst consensus from 17 firms showing 13 buys, 4 holds, 0 sells, and a consensus target of $82.97.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 20, 2026 from the data above.
Price vs fair value
Close $65.11200-day averageGekko Fair Value $74.71
Key stats
- Market cap
- $71.43B
- P/E ratio
- 34.8
- Forward P/E
- 30.6
- EPS, TTM
- $1.89
- Revenue, TTM
- $25.06B
- Profit margin
- 6.3%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 3.50
- Volume
- 14.45M avg 7.09M
- 1-year return
- −13.9%
- Typical daily move
- ±4.5%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±17.6%
- 50-day average
- $69.21
- 200-day average
- $73.08
- Next earnings
- Oct 28 after close
- Shares outstanding
- 719.9M
Carvana swing-trade checklist
Carvana scores 4 supportive, 0 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
4 supportive0 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $65.11 is below the 50-day ($69.21) and 200-day ($73.08) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
68.4, Accumulation
Reading 68.4 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
12.8% below
Price is 12.8% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 90 days: 2 open-market insider purchases; Congress 1 buy / 0 sales. Last 30 days: 2 unusual options signals.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 38 days
Next report Oct 28, 2026, 38 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalityheadwind
−15.9% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −15.9% over 5 years, rising in 1 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Carvana stock chart and price history
Carvana closed at $65.11 on Sep 18, 2026, −13.9% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $54.46 to $97.38.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −7.6%
- 3 months
- −2.2%
- 6 months
- +10.7%
- 1 year
- −13.9%
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About Carvana
Carvana runs an online marketplace where people across the United States can buy or sell used cars without visiting a traditional dealership. It is known for letting customers browse inventory, arrange financing, and complete a purchase entirely through a digital experience rather than an in-person sales process.
The company handles most stages of that process itself, from acquiring and reconditioning vehicles to arranging loans and offering related add-on products. It also runs its own delivery and pickup operations, giving buyers different ways to receive their vehicle, and continues to support customers after a sale is complete. In addition to its consumer marketplace, Carvana operates auction platforms where vehicles are sold separately from its main retail business.
Carvana was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona. Its shares trade on the NYSE under the ticker CVNA.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Retail trade
- Industry
- Specialty stores
- Website
- carvana.com
Carvana GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Carvana’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 68.4, in the Accumulation zone, up 8 points over five sessions.
68.4Accumulation
Up 8 points over five sessions.
Reading for Sep 18, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 31 | +5.4% | +16.5% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 139 | +1.0% | +9.6% | ||
| Neutral | 295 | +1.3% | +2.9% | ||
| Distribution | 88 | +2.3% | +6.4% | ||
| Selling | 9 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average CVNA share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the CVNA price, zone by zone.Track CVNA in Gekko
Is Carvana stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Carvana trades 12.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $74.71, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Carvana shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$74.71
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 19, 2026
12.8% Undervalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open CVNA in Gekko
Carvana insider and Congress trading
Insiders filed 2 open-market purchases in Carvana worth $1.54M, and members of Congress disclosed 1 purchase and 0 sales, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
1trade disclosed: 1 purchase and 0 sales.
| Member | Amount | Disclosed |
|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna House, CA, purchase | $1,001 - $15,000 | Aug 12 traded Jul 7 |
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Buybacks
Carvana has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $36.00M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.05%
From company filings.
Unusual options activity last 30 days
2signals, 58% of the flagged premium in calls.
Latest: Bearish flow on Sep 12, $2.62M in unusual premium.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
11of the funds Gekko tracks hold CVNA.
9added2opened0trimmed0sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko
Carvana earnings: next date and track record
Carvana reports on Oct 28, 2026, after the close (38 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 28, 2026
Expected after the close, 38 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.46
- Revenue estimate
- $7.61B
6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±11%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 29, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Carvana sold nearly 200,000 vehicles in Q2 2026, up 38% YoY, with revenue hitting $7.376 billion (+52%), both company records. Adjusted EBITDA surpassed a $3 billion annual run rate for the first time, with operating income and net income run rates of ~$2.7 billion and ~$2 billion respectively. Inventory expansion strategy shows strong correlation to sales growth, with high-inventory regions growing sales 54% vs 30% in lower-inventory regions.
- Guidance
- Management targets 3 million cars annually at 13.5% adjusted EBITDA margin by 2030-2035, requiring less than 4x current scale. Revenue growth expected to align more closely with retail unit growth in Q3 as gross revenue treatment comparison normalizes.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | $0.42 est $0.42 | $7.38B est $6.90B | −7.0% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | $1.69 est $1.58 | $6.43B est $6.12B | −2.6% |
| Feb 18, 2026 | $4.22 est $1.09 | $5.60B est $5.27B | −5.2% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | $1.03 est $1.30 | $5.65B est $5.11B | −15.8% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | $1.28 est $1.17 | $4.84B est $4.58B | +15.9% |
| May 7, 2025 | $1.51 est $0.73 | $4.23B est $4.00B | +10.3% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | $0.61 est $0.17 | $3.55B est $3.32B | −13.0% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | $0.64 est $0.25 | $3.66B est $3.47B | +18.5% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Carvana stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Carvana is $82.97, +27.4% from the last close, from 17 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$82.97consensus 12-month target, +27.4% from the last close
Now $65.11Avg $82.97
Low $70High $120
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 17 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3 | Morgan Stanley | $90 | +38.2% |
| Sep 3 | Morgan Stanley | $90 | +38.2% |
| Aug 18 | BTIG | $87 | +33.6% |
| Aug 18 | Wells Fargo | $80 | +22.9% |
| Aug 12 | William Blair | — | — |
+9.6%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
−15.9%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4.5%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Carvana seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 19, Carvana averaged −15.9% across the last 5 years, rising in 1 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −9.3% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −12.0% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −15.0% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | −15.9% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | −20.7% | 1 of 5 |
For scale, CVNA’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 17.6%.
Carvana market cap and key statistics
Carvana’s market cap is $71.43B, with a P/E ratio of 34.8 and revenue of $25.06B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $71.43B
- P/E ratio
- 34.8
- Forward P/E
- 30.6
- EPS, TTM
- $1.89
- Gekko Fair Value
- $74.71
Trading
- Volume
- 14.45M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 7.09M
- 52-week high
- $97.38
- 52-week low
- $54.46
- Shares outstanding
- 719.9M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $25.06B
- Profit margin
- 6.3%
- Return on equity
- 58.8%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +61.5%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 3.50
- Typical daily move
- ±4.5%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±17.6%
Carvana stock news this week
4 headlines about Carvana from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.
- Why Carvana (CVNA) Dipped More Than Broader Market TodayZacks Investment Research, Sep 16
- Carvana Expands Same-Day Delivery to the Twin CitiesGuruFocus, Sep 16
- Carvana Brings Inspection and Reconditioning Center Capabilities to ADESA CharlotteBusiness Wire, Sep 15
- NewEdge Advisors LLC Raises Stake in Carvana Co. $CVNADefense World, Sep 14
Carvana peers
Carvana’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| WMTWalmart | Accumulation | 10.6% below |
| COSTCostco Wholesale | Buying | 9.8% above |
| TGTTarget | Neutral | 8.8% above |
| ORLYO'Reilly Automotive | Accumulation | 10.5% below |
| AZOAutoZone | Accumulation | 24.7% below |
| CPRTCopart | Accumulation | 5.8% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Carvana stock FAQ
What is Carvana’s market cap?
Carvana’s market cap is $71.43B at the Sep 18, 2026 close of $65.11, with 719.9M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 34.8.
What is the Carvana stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Carvana is $82.97, +27.4% from the last close. Of the 17 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 13 rate it a buy, 4 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Carvana stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Carvana is undervalued: the Sep 18, 2026 close of $65.11 is 12.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $74.71. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Carvana report earnings next?
Carvana is expected to report on Oct 28, 2026, after the market closes (38 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.46 per share on revenue of $7.61B. Carvana beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 11% on average across the report.
What is Carvana’s 52-week high and low?
Carvana’s 52-week high is $97.38 and its 52-week low is $54.46; it closed at $65.11 on Sep 18, 2026, −13.9% over the past year.
Is Carvana stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, smart money and earnings risk) and 2 as headwinds (trend and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
Is there unusual options activity in Carvana?
Gekko flagged 2 unusual options signals in Carvana over the last 30 days, with $3.53M of flagged premium in calls and $2.59M in puts. The latest, bearish flow, was on Sep 12, 2026 with $2.62M in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.
How this page works
Prices and signals update after every US market close; the GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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