Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for TSLA in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every TSLA insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open TSLA in Gekko
NASDAQ: TSLA
Tesla (TSLA) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$378.03−4.67 (−1.2%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeThis week's news centers on Tesla's robotaxi program, with federal regulators reviewing a petition alleging that Tesla robotaxis, including Model Y and Cybercab vehicles, have exceeded posted speed limits in school zones in Austin, Texas. Separately, Tesla is set to debut Cybercab at the Paris Motor Show as part of an expansion effort outside the US, while Lucid plans 16 locations in France to compete in the luxury EV space. On the analyst side, Jefferies raised its price target to $400 from $350 while maintaining a hold rating, citing resilient deliveries and improved prospects for non-automotive businesses.
Tesla closed at $378.03, down 1.2%, sitting between its 50-day average of $356.08 and 200-day average of $390.07. The GekkoIndex reads 50.8, placing the stock in the Neutral zone. Price stands 11.8% above Gekko Fair Value of $338.17, with chart watchers eyeing the $400 level as a potential breakout point following a 28% rise since late July.
Earnings are scheduled for 21 October 2026, after close, 8 days away, falling inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior report showed a -15.6% reaction despite a beat on EPS. Options activity shows 7 unusual signals in the last 30 days, with call premium of $363.5 million against put premium of $91.9 million. Seasonality from this point in the calendar has averaged +8.6% over the next 20 trading days across 5 years, rising in 3 of them. Consensus among 28 firms stands at 14 buy, 11 hold, and 3 sell, with a target of $392.42.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Tesla price vs fair value
Close $378.03200-day averageGekko Fair Value $338.17
Tesla quick facts
- Market cap
- $1.49T
- P/E ratio
- 347.2
- Forward P/E
- 158.7
- EPS, TTM
- $1.08
- Revenue, TTM
- $103.6B
- Profit margin
- 3.7%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 1.92
- Volume
- 19.95M avg 34.62M
- 1-year return
- −13.2%
- Typical daily move
- ±2.9%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±10.1%
- 50-day average
- $356.08
- 200-day average
- $390.07
- Next earnings
- Oct 21 after close
- Shares outstanding
- 3.95B
Tesla swing-trade checklist
Tesla scores 2 supportive, 2 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
2 supportive2 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $378.03 sits between the 50-day ($356.08) and 200-day ($390.07) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
50.8, Neutral
Reading 50.8 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valueheadwind
11.8% above
Price is 11.8% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 30 days: 7 unusual options signals.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 8 days
Reports on Oct 21, 2026, 8 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+8.6% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +8.6% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Tesla stock chart and price history
Tesla closed at $378.03 on Oct 12, 2026, −13.2% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $297.38 to $498.83.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +3.4%
- 3 months
- −4.6%
- 6 months
- +7.3%
- 1 year
- −13.2%
The full TSLA chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open TSLA in Gekko
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About Tesla
Tesla designs, builds, and sells electric vehicles worldwide, with a presence in the United States, China, and other markets. It is widely recognized for its electric sedans and sport utility vehicles, which customers can buy new or used, or upgrade through in-app purchases tied to its Supercharger charging network. Beyond vehicles, the company also produces solar power and energy storage systems for homes, businesses, and utilities.
The business runs through two main segments. The Automotive segment covers vehicle sales, regulatory credit revenue, and after-sale offerings such as insurance, used car sales, retail merchandise, financing, leasing, and maintenance through company-run service centers and mobile technicians. The Energy Generation and Storage segment handles the manufacture, installation, sale, and rental of solar and storage products, serving residential, commercial, industrial, and utility customers through its website, stores, showrooms, and partner networks, along with financing and repair services for those products.
Tesla was established in 2003 under the name Tesla Motors, Inc. and adopted its current name in February 2017. The company is headquartered in Austin, Texas, and its shares are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker TSLA.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer durables
- Industry
- Motor vehicles
- Website
- tesla.com
Tesla GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Tesla’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 50.8, in the Neutral zone, down 0.6 points over five sessions.
50.8Neutral
Down 0.6 points over five sessions.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 40 | −2.4% | +0.2% | ||
| Accumulation | 212 | +1.7% | +3.2% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 397 | +0.6% | +3.8% | ||
| Distribution | 29 | +1.5% | +0.5% | ||
| Selling | 4 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average TSLA share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the TSLA price, zone by zone.Track TSLA in Gekko
Is Tesla stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Tesla trades 11.8% above Gekko Fair Value of $338.17, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Tesla shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$338.17
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
11.8% Overvalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 3.0% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open TSLA in Gekko
Tesla insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Tesla, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in TSLA were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for TSLA, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open TSLA in Gekko
Unusual options activity last 30 days
7signals, 80% of the flagged premium in calls.
Latest: Bullish flow on Oct 9, $35.20M in unusual premium.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
9of the funds Gekko tracks hold TSLA.
2added4opened3trimmed1sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko
Tesla earnings: next date and track record
Tesla reports on Oct 21, 2026, after the close (8 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 21, 2026
Expected after the close, 8 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.45
- Revenue estimate
- $27.89B
5 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±7.7%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 22, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Tesla reported record Q2 deliveries with Model Y cited as the best-selling car globally. FSD adoption is accelerating, becoming a primary purchase driver. Energy business is growing rapidly. Cybercab production has started, Tesla Semi is ramping, and Optimus humanoid robot production has begun. Management describes this as the most ambitious advanced infrastructure manufacturing build-out in history, with significant CapEx investment.
- Guidance
- Management flagged 2026 as a massive CapEx year, expecting strong returns on infrastructure investments. Robotaxi is scaling at 10%+ weekly mile growth across Florida, Texas, and Bay Area. Optimus production ramp faces supply chain challenges as Tesla builds entirely new component ecosystems.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | $0.33 est $0.32 | $28.24B est $26.42B | −15.6% |
| Apr 22, 2026 | $0.41 est $0.35 | $22.39B est $22.10B | −3.3% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | $0.50 est $0.45 | $24.90B est $24.78B | −3.3% |
| Oct 22, 2025 | $0.50 est $0.56 | $28.10B est $26.54B | +1.4% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | $0.40 est $0.40 | $22.50B est $22.28B | −8.1% |
| Apr 22, 2025 | $0.27 est $0.41 | $19.34B est $21.27B | +10.2% |
| Jan 29, 2025 | $0.73 est $0.77 | $25.71B est $27.26B | +0.6% |
| Oct 23, 2024 | $0.72 est $0.58 | $25.18B est $25.47B | +19.5% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Tesla stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Tesla is $392.42, +3.8% from the last close, from 28 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$392.42consensus 12-month target, +3.8% from the last close
Now $378.03Avg $392.42
Low $24.86High $550
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 28 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12 | Jefferies | $400 | +5.8% |
| Oct 12 | Barclays | $370 | −2.1% |
| Oct 12 | RBC Capital | $480 | +27.0% |
| Oct 8 | Tigress Financial | $550 | +45.5% |
| Oct 8 | Oppenheimer | — | — |
+3.8%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+8.6%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.9%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Tesla seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Tesla averaged +8.6% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +0.6% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | 0.0% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +9.6% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +8.6% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +9.9% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, TSLA’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 10.1%.
Tesla market cap and key statistics
Tesla’s market cap is $1.49T, with a P/E ratio of 347.2 and revenue of $103.6B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $1.49T
- P/E ratio
- 347.2
- Forward P/E
- 158.7
- EPS, TTM
- $1.08
- Gekko Fair Value
- $338.17
Trading
- Volume
- 19.95M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 34.62M
- 52-week high
- $498.83
- 52-week low
- $297.38
- Shares outstanding
- 3.95B
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $103.6B
- Profit margin
- 3.7%
- Return on equity
- 4.7%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −3.0%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 1.92
- Typical daily move
- ±2.9%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±10.1%
Tesla stock news this week
Coverage of Tesla this week reads positive: 6 positive, 4 neutral and 3 negative headlines.
- Tesla robotaxis face NHTSA review over alleged school zone speedingYahoo, Oct 12
- Elon Musk takes a dig at Waymo's pet collision history and says Tesla Robotaxi has a solutionBusiness Insider, Oct 12
- Tesla Faces New Luxury EV Rival in France as Lucid Plans 16 LocationsYahoo Finance, Oct 12
- Tesla (TSLA) Declines More Than Market: Some Information for InvestorsZacks Investment Research, Oct 12
- Tesla to Debut Cybercab at Paris Motor ShowBloomberg Technology, Oct 12
- Tesla robotaxis face investigation over alleged speeding in school zonesNew York Post, Oct 12
Tesla peers
Tesla’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| GMGeneral Motors | Neutral | 11.2% below |
| RACEFerrari | Accumulation | 13.1% above |
| FFord Motor | Accumulation | 16.9% below |
| RIVNRivian Automotive | Buying | 19.9% below |
| STLAStellantis | Accumulation | 25.5% below |
| OSKOshkosh | Accumulation | 22.3% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Tesla stock FAQ
What is Tesla’s market cap?
Tesla’s market cap is $1.49T at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $378.03, with 3.95B shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 347.2.
What is the Tesla stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Tesla is $392.42, +3.8% from the last close. Of the 28 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 14 rate it a buy, 11 a hold and 3 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Tesla stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Tesla is overvalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $378.03 is 11.8% above Gekko Fair Value of $338.17. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Tesla report earnings next?
Tesla is expected to report on Oct 21, 2026, after the market closes (8 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.45 per share on revenue of $27.89B. Tesla beat the earnings estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, moving 7.7% on average across the report.
What is Tesla’s 52-week high and low?
Tesla’s 52-week high is $498.83 and its 52-week low is $297.38; it closed at $378.03 on Oct 12, 2026, −13.2% over the past year.
Is Tesla stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (smart money and seasonality), 2 as mixed (trend and gekkoindex) and 2 as headwinds (fair value and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
Is there unusual options activity in Tesla?
Gekko flagged 7 unusual options signals in Tesla over the last 30 days, with $363.5M of flagged premium in calls and $91.89M in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Oct 9, 2026 with $35.20M in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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