Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for MSFT in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every MSFT insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MSFT in Gekko
NASDAQ: MSFT
Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Analysis & Forecast
$493.78−3.97 (−0.8%)
Close on Sep 18, 2026. Page updated Sep 19, 9:16 pm ET.
Gekko Brief
AI summaryMicrosoft trades at $493.78, down 0.8% on the day but still holding above both its 50-day ($464.68) and 200-day ($431.60) moving averages, with the shorter average above the longer one. The GekkoIndex reads 55.8, placing the stock in the Neutral zone, up 1.2 over the last five readings. Shares sit 13.4% above Gekko Fair Value of $435.28, a gap that stands out against an otherwise steady trend.
This week's flow has centered on institutional positioning rather than company-specific catalysts. Several asset managers disclosed changes to their Microsoft stakes via 13F filings, including increases from Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, Vanderbilt University, Mirae Asset Global Investments, My Personal CFO LLC, and Praxis Capital Management, alongside a modest reduction from J. L. Bainbridge and Co. Separately, Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman spoke publicly about the challenge of controlling AI systems, and one commentator described recent tech-sector selling as a normal pause within a broader rally, naming Microsoft among favored large-cap names.
Microsoft's next earnings report is set for 28 October 2026 after the close, 38 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day holding window. In the last 90 days, Congressional trading shows 5 buys and 0 sells. Seasonality over the next 20 trading days has averaged -0.3% across 5 years, with gains in only 2 of those instances. Analyst coverage remains heavily tilted toward buy ratings among 34 firms, with a consensus target of $572.92. The gap to Gekko Fair Value bears watching given the stock's position above its historical averages.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 20, 2026 from the data above.
Price vs fair value
Close $493.78200-day averageGekko Fair Value $435.28
Key stats
- Market cap
- $3.67T
- P/E ratio
- 27.3
- Forward P/E
- 24.8
- EPS, TTM
- $18.22
- Revenue, TTM
- $331.8B
- Profit margin
- 40.3%
- Dividend yield
- 0.74%
- Beta
- 1.11
- Volume
- 37.76M avg 20.25M
- 1-year return
- −3.2%
- Typical daily move
- ±2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4.5%
- 50-day average
- $464.68
- 200-day average
- $431.60
- Next earnings
- Oct 28 after close
- Shares outstanding
- 7.43B
Microsoft swing-trade checklist
Microsoft scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive1 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendsupportive
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $493.78 is above the 50-day ($464.68) and 200-day ($431.60) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
55.8, Neutral
Reading 55.8 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valueheadwind
13.4% above
Price is 13.4% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 90 days: Congress 5 buys / 0 sales.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 38 days
Next report Oct 28, 2026, 38 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalityheadwind
−0.3% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −0.3% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Microsoft stock chart and price history
Microsoft closed at $493.78 on Sep 18, 2026, −3.2% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $349.20 to $553.72.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +2.0%
- 3 months
- +30.1%
- 6 months
- +26.9%
- 1 year
- −3.2%
The full MSFT chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open MSFT in Gekko
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About Microsoft
Microsoft builds and maintains a wide array of software, cloud services, and computing hardware for both businesses and everyday users. It is widely recognized for products such as Windows, Office, Azure, Xbox, and LinkedIn, spanning tools that individuals use daily and infrastructure that large organizations depend on.
The company's work is grouped into three areas. One covers workplace and productivity tools, including the Office applications, Teams, Outlook.com, OneDrive, and Dynamics 365 business software, serving both companies and individual subscribers. Another centers on cloud and server technology, offering Azure cloud computing, SQL Server, Visual Studio, GitHub for developers, and Nuance's AI tools for healthcare and business, alongside consulting and support services. The third area handles personal computing, combining Windows licensing with hardware like Surface devices and Xbox consoles, plus gaming content, Bing search, and advertising services.
Microsoft's shares trade on the NASDAQ under the ticker MSFT.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Technology services
- Industry
- Packaged software
- Website
- microsoft.com
Microsoft GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Microsoft’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 55.8, in the Neutral zone, up 1.2 points over five sessions.
55.8Neutral
Up 1.2 points over five sessions.
Reading for Sep 18, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 35 | +2.1% | +3.2% | ||
| Accumulation | 221 | −0.3% | −0.1% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 344 | +0.4% | +1.6% | ||
| Distribution | 53 | +0.1% | −0.4% | ||
| Selling | 9 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average MSFT share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the MSFT price, zone by zone.Track MSFT in Gekko
Is Microsoft stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Microsoft trades 13.4% above Gekko Fair Value of $435.28, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Microsoft shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$435.28
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 19, 2026
13.4% Overvalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open MSFT in Gekko
Microsoft insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Microsoft, and members of Congress disclosed 5 purchases and 0 sales, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
5trades disclosed: 5 purchases and 0 sales.
| Member | Amount | Disclosed |
|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Cisneros House, CA, purchase | $15,001 - $50,000 | Sep 11 traded Aug 18 |
| David Taylor House, OH, purchase | $1,001 - $15,000 | Aug 7 traded Jul 24 |
| David J. Taylor House, OH, purchase | $1,001 - $15,000 | Aug 7 traded Jul 23 |
| Gilbert Ray Cisneros House, CA, purchase | $15,001 - $50,000 | Sep 7 traded Jul 17 |
| Gilbert Ray Cisneros House, CA, purchase | $15,001 - $50,000 | Sep 7 traded Jul 16 |
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Buybacks
Microsoft has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $4.58B
- As a share of market cap
- 0.12%
- Trailing four quarters
- $22.27B
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
13of the funds Gekko tracks hold MSFT.
4added3opened6trimmed3sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Microsoft earnings: next date and track record
Microsoft reports on Oct 28, 2026, after the close (38 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 28, 2026
Expected after the close, 38 days away
- EPS estimate
- $4.69
- Revenue estimate
- $90.59B
8 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±7.2%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 29, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Microsoft reported a record fiscal year with total revenue surpassing $331 billion (up 18%), Microsoft Cloud revenue above $214 billion (up 27%), and Azure exceeding $100 billion (up 41%). Management highlighted strong demand for AI infrastructure and platform services, expanding data center footprint (31 new data centers this quarter, 88 this year), accelerated capacity deployment and efficiency improvements (reduced dock-to-live times, 4x throughput improvement for Copilot workloads). M365 Copilot showed rapid adoption (over 30 million paid seats) with increased usage intensity and new SKUs (E7) driving ARPU. Management emphasized a model-agnostic enterprise architecture that preserves customer IP and supports open/custom models, and discussed cybersecurity product evolution (Project Perception) and multimodel cost efficiencies. Financials: Q4 revenue $90B (up 18% y/y), gross margins 67% (down y/y), operating income up 18%, EPS $4.74 (up 23% adjusted for OpenAI impact). Discrete items included a $3.2B gain from Anthropic, lower-than-expected VRP costs, offset by Xbox severance and impairment charges. Management reiterated focus on efficiency, margin levers (silicon, model diversification, product and infra improvements), and cautious but constructive commentary on supply constraints and pricing dynamics in the AI hardware market.
- Risks flagged
- Supply constraints for CPUs/GPUs and potential overcapacity/overbuilding of data centers and chips; component and hardware price increases that could pressure margins; discrete charges (Xbox severance and impairments) and other one-time items; macro uncertainty around the pace of enterprise adoption and potential volatility in AI demand and pricing; need to manage capital allocation for short-lived assets (CPUs/GPUs) and timing of data center builds.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | $4.74 est $4.21 | $90.01B est $87.62B | +14.7% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | $4.27 est $4.09 | $82.89B est $81.44B | −5.0% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | $4.14 est $3.92 | $81.27B est $80.31B | −9.8% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | $4.13 est $3.67 | $77.67B est $75.49B | −3.0% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | $3.65 est $3.37 | $76.44B est $73.93B | +4.1% |
| Apr 30, 2025 | $3.46 est $3.22 | $70.07B est $68.44B | +8.0% |
| Jan 29, 2025 | $3.23 est $3.15 | $69.63B est $68.87B | −7.2% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | $3.30 est $3.10 | $65.59B est $64.56B | −5.9% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Microsoft stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Microsoft is $572.92, +16.0% from the last close, from 34 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$572.92consensus 12-month target, +16.0% from the last close
Now $493.78Avg $572.92
Low $510High $700
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 34 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15 | Barclays | $512 | +3.7% |
| Sep 13 | Wells Fargo | $700 | +41.8% |
| Sep 10 | Goldman Sachs | $640 | +29.6% |
| Sep 10 | RBC Capital | $640 | +29.6% |
| Sep 9 | RBC Capital | $640 | +29.6% |
+1.6%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
−0.3%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Microsoft seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 19, Microsoft averaged −0.3% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −1.8% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −2.7% | 0 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −2.2% | 0 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | −0.3% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +2.0% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, MSFT’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 4.5%.
Microsoft market cap and key statistics
Microsoft’s market cap is $3.67T, with a P/E ratio of 27.3 and revenue of $331.8B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $3.67T
- P/E ratio
- 27.3
- Forward P/E
- 24.8
- EPS, TTM
- $18.22
- Gekko Fair Value
- $435.28
Trading
- Volume
- 37.76M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 20.25M
- 52-week high
- $553.72
- 52-week low
- $349.20
- Shares outstanding
- 7.43B
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $331.8B
- Profit margin
- 40.3%
- Return on equity
- 34%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +31.7%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 1.11
- Typical daily move
- ±2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4.5%
- Dividend yield
- 0.74%
Microsoft stock news this week
Coverage of Microsoft this week reads neutral: 1 positive, 5 neutral and 1 negative headlines.
- McMahon: AAPL iPhone Duo Adds Mag 7 Muscle, Likes MSFT & GOOGLSchwab Network, Sep 19
- Microsoft's AI CEO says ‘controlling' AI ‘is going to be a really, really big challenge'Business Insider, Sep 19
- Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management Company Ltd Buys 34,077 Shares of Microsoft Corporation $MSFTDefense World, Sep 19
- Microsoft Corporation $MSFT is Vanderbilt University’s 6th Largest PositionDefense World, Sep 19
- Mirae Asset Global Investments Co. Ltd. Has $1.53 Billion Position in Microsoft Corporation $MSFTDefense World, Sep 19
- My Personal CFO LLC Raises Stake in Microsoft Corporation $MSFTDefense World, Sep 19
Microsoft peers
Microsoft’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| ORCLOracle | Neutral | 17.7% below |
| PLTRPalantir Technologies | Neutral | 11.3% above |
| PANWPalo Alto Networks | Neutral | 8.9% above |
| CRWDCrowdStrike | Neutral | 19.0% above |
| CRMSalesforce | Neutral | 1.3% below |
| NOWServiceNow | Neutral | 9.7% above |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Microsoft stock FAQ
What is Microsoft’s market cap?
Microsoft’s market cap is $3.67T at the Sep 18, 2026 close of $493.78, with 7.43B shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 27.3.
What is the Microsoft stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Microsoft is $572.92, +16.0% from the last close. Of the 34 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 33 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Microsoft stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Microsoft is overvalued: the Sep 18, 2026 close of $493.78 is 13.4% above Gekko Fair Value of $435.28. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Microsoft report earnings next?
Microsoft is expected to report on Oct 28, 2026, after the market closes (38 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $4.69 per share on revenue of $90.59B. Microsoft beat the earnings estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports, moving 7.2% on average across the report.
What is Microsoft’s 52-week high and low?
Microsoft’s 52-week high is $553.72 and its 52-week low is $349.20; it closed at $493.78 on Sep 18, 2026, −3.2% over the past year.
Is Microsoft stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (trend, smart money and earnings risk), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 2 as headwinds (fair value and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
Prices and signals update after every US market close; the GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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