Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for MSFT in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every MSFT insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MSFT in Gekko
NASDAQ: MSFT
Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Nov 4 close
$555.80+34.81 (+6.7%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryNov 4 closeMicrosoft shares climbed almost 7% on Wednesday to close at $555.80, touching a new 52-week high of $559.15, as hyperscalers broadly rallied following a Democratic sweep of both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections. The move comes after last week's fiscal Q1 earnings, where Microsoft Cloud revenue surpassed $63 billion with growth accelerating to 30% year-over-year, and Copilot daily users grew nearly 50% quarter-over-quarter; EPS of $4.89 beat the $4.72 estimate, though the stock had initially reacted by -0.2% and was down 2% since the report before this week's surge. Separate coverage noted a Microsoft Teams security report on social-engineering attacks, and the appointment of Microsoft board member Emma Walmsley as HP's new CEO.
The close of $555.80 sits above both the 50-day average of $515.34 and the 200-day average of $438.99, with the stock up 5% over one month and 34.3% over six months. The GekkoIndex reads 48.5, placing the stock in the Neutral zone, down 3.9 over five days. Price stands 17.8% above the Gekko Fair Value of $471.64.
The next earnings date falls on 27 January 2027, 83 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day hold. Over the last 90 days, Congress recorded 3 buys and 0 sells, alongside 6 billionaire holders and 7 trailblazer holders. Analyst coverage shows 34 buy ratings against 4 hold and 0 sell among 38 firms, with a consensus target of $633.13. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 2.4% gain over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Written by AI from the Nov 4, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Microsoft price vs fair value
Close $555.80200-day averageGekko Fair Value $471.64
Microsoft quick facts
- Market cap
- $4.13T
- P/E ratio
- 27.2
- Forward P/E
- 26.3
- EPS, TTM
- $18.62
- Revenue, TTM
- $346.4B
- Profit margin
- 41.2%
- Dividend yield
- 0.71%
- Beta
- 1.05
- Volume
- 50.59M avg 23.21M
- 1-year return
- +7.5%
- Typical daily move
- ±2.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4.6%
- 50-day average
- $515.34
- 200-day average
- $438.99
- Next earnings
- Jan 27 after close
- Shares outstanding
- 7.43B
Microsoft swing-trade checklist
Microsoft scores 4 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
4 supportive1 mixed1 headwind
- Trendsupportive
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $555.80 is above the 50-day ($515.34) and 200-day ($438.99) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
48.5, Neutral
Reading 48.5 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valueheadwind
17.8% above
Price is 17.8% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 90 days: Congress 3 buys / 0 sales.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 83 days
Next report Jan 27, 2027, 83 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+2.4% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +2.4% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Microsoft stock chart and price history
Microsoft closed at $555.80 on Nov 4, 2026, +7.5% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $349.20 to $559.15.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +5.0%
- 3 months
- +11.2%
- 6 months
- +34.3%
- 1 year
- +7.5%
The full MSFT chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open MSFT in Gekko
Follow Microsoft through every session
Put MSFT on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.
Track MSFT in GekkoFree for 7 days. No credit card required.
About Microsoft
Microsoft builds and maintains a wide array of software, cloud services, and computing hardware for both businesses and everyday users. It is widely recognized for products such as Windows, Office, Azure, Xbox, and LinkedIn, spanning tools that individuals use daily and infrastructure that large organizations depend on.
The company's work is grouped into three areas. One covers workplace and productivity tools, including the Office applications, Teams, Outlook.com, OneDrive, and Dynamics 365 business software, serving both companies and individual subscribers. Another centers on cloud and server technology, offering Azure cloud computing, SQL Server, Visual Studio, GitHub for developers, and Nuance's AI tools for healthcare and business, alongside consulting and support services. The third area handles personal computing, combining Windows licensing with hardware like Surface devices and Xbox consoles, plus gaming content, Bing search, and advertising services.
Microsoft's shares trade on the NASDAQ under the ticker MSFT.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Technology services
- Industry
- Packaged software
- Website
- microsoft.com
Microsoft GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Microsoft’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 48.5, in the Neutral zone, down 3.9 points over five sessions.
48.5Neutral
Down 3.9 points over five sessions.
Reading for Nov 4, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 35 | +2.1% | +3.2% | ||
| Accumulation | 221 | −0.3% | −0.1% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 379 | +0.5% | +1.8% | ||
| Distribution | 53 | +0.1% | −0.4% | ||
| Selling | 9 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average MSFT share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.0% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the MSFT price, zone by zone.Track MSFT in Gekko
Is Microsoft stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Microsoft trades 17.8% above Gekko Fair Value of $471.64, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Microsoft shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$471.64
Gekko Fair Value, Nov 4, 2026
17.8% Overvalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 16.6% above the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open MSFT in Gekko
Microsoft insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Microsoft, and members of Congress disclosed 3 purchases and 0 sales, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
3trades disclosed: 3 purchases and 0 sales.
| Member | Amount | Disclosed |
|---|---|---|
| Lisa McClain House, MI, purchase | $1,001 - $15,000 | Oct 12 traded Sep 30 |
| Cleo Fields House, LA, purchase | $1,001 - $15,000 | Oct 2 traded Sep 10 |
| Gilbert Cisneros House, CA, purchase | $15,001 - $50,000 | Sep 11 traded Aug 18 |
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Buybacks
Microsoft has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026
- $4.38B
- As a share of market cap
- 0.11%
- Trailing four quarters
- $21.00B
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
13of the funds Gekko tracks hold MSFT.
4added3opened6trimmed3sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Microsoft earnings: next date and track record
Microsoft reports on Jan 27, 2027, after the close (83 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Jan 27, 2027
Expected after the close, 83 days away
- EPS estimate
- $4.87
- Revenue estimate
- $96.57B
8 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±6.5%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Oct 28, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Microsoft Cloud revenue surpassed $63 billion in Q1 FY2027, with growth accelerating to 30% year-over-year. Copilot daily users grew nearly 50% quarter-over-quarter and over 5x year-over-year, with customers holding 50,000+ seats increasing 8x year-over-year. Consumption-based billing customers grew over 75% in the quarter. GitHub agent-generated PRs increased 6x over six months, with agents now opening over one-third of all PRs.
- Guidance
- No explicit forward-looking financial targets or guidance figures were provided in this excerpt. Management signaled expanding TAM and ARPU through a shift from per-seat subscriptions to consumption-based billing models tied to agent value delivery.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | $4.89 est $4.72 | $92.28B est $90.62B | −0.2% |
| Jul 29, 2026 | $4.74 est $4.21 | $90.01B est $87.62B | +14.7% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | $4.27 est $4.09 | $82.89B est $81.44B | −5.0% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | $4.14 est $3.92 | $81.27B est $80.31B | −9.8% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | $4.13 est $3.67 | $77.67B est $75.49B | −3.0% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | $3.65 est $3.37 | $76.44B est $73.93B | +4.1% |
| Apr 30, 2025 | $3.46 est $3.22 | $70.07B est $68.44B | +8.0% |
| Jan 29, 2025 | $3.23 est $3.15 | $69.63B est $68.87B | −7.2% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Microsoft stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Microsoft is $633.13, +13.9% from the last close, from 38 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$633.13consensus 12-month target, +13.9% from the last close
Now $555.80Avg $633.13
Low $440High $750
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 38 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | Barclays | $610 | +9.8% |
| Nov 2 | Jefferies | $650 | +16.9% |
| Nov 2 | DZ BANK AG | — | — |
| Nov 2 | Phillip Securities | $515 | −7.3% |
| Oct 30 | Bank of America Securities | $630 | +13.4% |
+1.8%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+2.4%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.7%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Microsoft seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Nov 4, Microsoft averaged +2.4% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +3.3% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +2.6% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +2.0% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +2.4% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +2.9% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, MSFT’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 4.6%.
Microsoft market cap and key statistics
Microsoft’s market cap is $4.13T, with a P/E ratio of 27.2 and revenue of $346.4B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $4.13T
- P/E ratio
- 27.2
- Forward P/E
- 26.3
- EPS, TTM
- $18.62
- Gekko Fair Value
- $471.64
Trading
- Volume
- 50.59M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 23.21M
- 52-week high
- $559.15
- 52-week low
- $349.20
- Shares outstanding
- 7.43B
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $346.4B
- Profit margin
- 41.2%
- Return on equity
- 34.2%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +32.3%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 1.05
- Typical daily move
- ±2.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4.6%
- Dividend yield
- 0.71%
Microsoft stock news this week
Coverage of Microsoft this week reads positive: 9 positive, 3 neutral and 1 negative headlines.
- Microsoft climbs 7% to hit a new 52-week high (MSFT:NASDAQ)Seeking Alpha, Nov 4
- Microsoft Teams Hack Report Shows Old-School Attacks Are Still a ThingCNET, Nov 4
- Microsoft Stock Hits Record High After Blue Wave - Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)Benzinga, Nov 4
- HP taps Emma Walmsley, ex-GSK chief and Microsoft board member, as CEONew York Post, Nov 4
- Microsoft Shares Are Down 2% Since Earnings. Is the Stock a Buy?Morningstar, Nov 4
- Forget the 12-Month Squeeze: Microsoft Is Primed for an Explosive AI Payoff24/7 Wall St., Nov 4
Microsoft peers
Microsoft’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| PLTRPalantir Technologies | Accumulation | 4.7% below |
| ORCLOracle | Accumulation | 29.7% below |
| PANWPalo Alto Networks | Accumulation | 7.4% above |
| CRWDCrowdStrike | Neutral | 8.1% above |
| CRMSalesforce | Accumulation | 9.3% below |
| ADPAutomatic Data Processing | Neutral | 2.5% above |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Microsoft stock FAQ
What is Microsoft’s market cap?
Microsoft’s market cap is $4.13T at the Nov 4, 2026 close of $555.80, with 7.43B shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 27.2.
What is the Microsoft stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Microsoft is $633.13, +13.9% from the last close. Of the 38 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 34 rate it a buy, 4 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Microsoft stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Microsoft is overvalued: the Nov 4, 2026 close of $555.80 is 17.8% above Gekko Fair Value of $471.64. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Microsoft report earnings next?
Microsoft is expected to report on Jan 27, 2027, after the market closes (83 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $4.87 per share on revenue of $96.57B. Microsoft beat the earnings estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports, moving 6.5% on average across the report.
What is Microsoft’s 52-week high and low?
Microsoft’s 52-week high is $559.15 and its 52-week low is $349.20; it closed at $555.80 on Nov 4, 2026, +7.5% over the past year.
Is Microsoft stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (trend, smart money, earnings risk and seasonality), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 1 as a headwind (fair value). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
See Microsoft the way Gekko members do
Every GekkoIndex reading, insider trade, options bet and Congress disclosure plotted on the chart, plus the 5,800-name screener and trade planning tools.
Join 1,460 other traders using Gekko
Start Your FREE 7 Day Trial → Every feature unlocked. No credit card required.