Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for BLBD in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every BLBD insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open BLBD in Gekko
NASDAQ: BLBD
Blue Bird (BLBD) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$56.290.00 (0.0%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeBlue Bird's week was shaped mainly by its balance sheet and by analyst commentary. The company closed a $600 million senior secured credit facility, replacing a prior $250 million facility and extending maturity to September 2031 with lower loan margins, giving it expanded borrowing capacity and financial flexibility. Separately, the stock drew a consensus "Buy" rating from brokerages, with one tally citing nine firms and an average 12-month price target of $85.33, alongside coverage noting a steeper-than-market drop in a recent session and comparisons with peer IDEX.
Blue Bird shares closed at $56.29, below both the 50-day average of $61.45 and the 200-day average of $62.59, with the 50-day sitting under the 200-day. The one-month return stands at -9%, the three-month at -27.2%, and the six-month at -12.7%, while the one-year return is 1.6%. The GekkoIndex reads 63.1, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, down 0.5 over five days. Price sits 34.3% below the Gekko Fair Value of $85.67.
The next earnings date falls on 23 November 2026, 41 days out and after the close, beyond a typical 20-trading-day window; the last report on 5 August 2026 produced a -15.2% reaction despite an EPS beat ($1.25 versus $1.15 estimate), marking the 15th consecutive quarterly guidance beat. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in their respective 90-day and 30-day windows. Seasonality over 5 years shows an average 20-day return of 4.4% from this point, rising in 2 of those years. Analyst consensus from 7 firms remains unanimously "Buy," with a target of $89.12.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Blue Bird price vs fair value
Close $56.29200-day averageGekko Fair Value $85.67
Blue Bird quick facts
- Market cap
- $1.78B
- P/E ratio
- 6.8
- Forward P/E
- 12.5
- EPS, TTM
- $8.45
- Revenue, TTM
- $1.61B
- Profit margin
- 17.5%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 1.36
- Volume
- 198,053 avg 499,654
- 1-year return
- +1.6%
- Typical daily move
- ±3.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±9.1%
- 50-day average
- $61.45
- 200-day average
- $62.59
- Next earnings
- Nov 23 after close
- Shares outstanding
- 31.35M
Blue Bird swing-trade checklist
Blue Bird scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $56.29 is below the 50-day ($61.45) and 200-day ($62.59) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
63.1, Accumulation
Reading 63.1 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
34.3% below
Price is 34.3% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 42 days
Next report Nov 23, 2026, 42 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitymixed
+4.4% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +4.4% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Blue Bird stock chart and price history
Blue Bird closed at $56.29 on Oct 12, 2026, +1.6% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $46.14 to $83.39.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −9.0%
- 3 months
- −27.2%
- 6 months
- −12.7%
- 1 year
- +1.6%
The full BLBD chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open BLBD in Gekko
Follow Blue Bird through every session
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About Blue Bird
Blue Bird builds and distributes school buses, along with the parts that keep them running. Its lineup spans Type C and Type D models plus specialty configurations, and the company has put particular focus on alternative fuel options, including propane, gasoline, compressed natural gas, and electric buses. It is best known for this core school bus business, which reaches customers throughout the United States, Canada, and select international markets.
The company operates through two main divisions, one covering bus manufacturing and the other covering parts. Sales flow through a broad network of dealers as well as direct arrangements with fleet operators and government buyers at the federal and state level. A central distribution center handles parts logistics to support customers after the initial sale.
Blue Bird was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Macon, Georgia. Its shares trade on the NASDAQ under the ticker BLBD.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer durables
- Industry
- Motor vehicles
- Website
- blue-bird.com
Blue Bird GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Blue Bird’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 63.1, in the Accumulation zone, down 0.5 points over five sessions.
63.1Accumulation
Down 0.5 points over five sessions.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 13 | +5.3% | +3.9% |
| Accumulation (current zone) | 243 | +0.1% | +1.3% |
| Neutral | 358 | +0.8% | +3.5% |
| Distribution | 44 | +0.1% | +1.7% |
| Selling | 24 | +6.3% | +14.1% |
Average BLBD share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the BLBD price, zone by zone.Track BLBD in Gekko
Is Blue Bird stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Blue Bird trades 34.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $85.67, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Blue Bird shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$85.67
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 9, 2026
34.3% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 34.6% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open BLBD in Gekko
Blue Bird insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Blue Bird, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in BLBD were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for BLBD, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open BLBD in Gekko
Buybacks
Blue Bird has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 27, 2026
- $2.57M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.14%
- Trailing four quarters
- $31.11M
From company filings.
Blue Bird earnings: next date and track record
Blue Bird reports on Nov 23, 2026, after the close (42 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 23, 2026
Expected after the close, 42 days away
- EPS estimate
- $1.48
- Revenue estimate
- $551.5M
8 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±8%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 5, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Blue Bird reported Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue of $517 million, up $119 million year-over-year, selling 3,525 buses with adjusted EBITDA of $71 million ($13M above prior year). The company beat guidance for the 15th consecutive quarter. EV sales comprised 10% of unit volume (355 units), with an EV backlog of ~800 units. Blue Bird closed the Micro Bird acquisition, expanding into Type A buses and commercial shuttles. Alt-powered buses represented 54% of unit sales mix.
- Guidance
- Management maintained a margin-neutral tariff strategy and expressed optimism for midterm school bus volumes driven by aging fleets and pent-up demand. EV order book extends into 2027, supported by intact EPA Clean School Bus funding rounds two through five.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | $1.25 est $1.15 | $517.2M est $485.7M | −15.2% |
| May 6, 2026 | $1.00 est $0.87 | $353.0M est $335.2M | +11.8% |
| Feb 4, 2026 | $1.00 est $0.80 | $333.0M est $326.9M | +5.9% |
| Nov 24, 2025 | $1.32 est $1.05 | $409.4M est $380.4M | −3.7% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $1.19 est $0.90 | $398.0M est $380.4M | +19.9% |
| May 7, 2025 | $0.96 est $0.95 | $358.9M est $348.2M | −2.9% |
| Feb 5, 2025 | $0.92 est $0.81 | $313.9M est $357.6M | +3.0% |
| Nov 25, 2024 | $0.77 est $0.65 | — | −1.2% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Blue Bird stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Blue Bird is $89.12, +58.3% from the last close, from 7 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$89.12consensus 12-month target, +58.3% from the last close
Now $56.29Avg $89.12
Low $85High $95
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 7 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | Craig-Hallum | $93 | +65.2% |
| Aug 10 | Roth MKM | $93 | +65.2% |
| Aug 7 | Freedom Capital Markets | $88 | +56.3% |
| Aug 6 | Craig-Hallum | $93 | +65.2% |
| Aug 6 | D.A. Davidson | $91 | +61.7% |
+1.3%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+4.4%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.2%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Blue Bird seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Blue Bird averaged +4.4% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −1.7% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −2.5% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −0.4% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +4.4% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +7.4% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, BLBD’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 9.1%.
Blue Bird market cap and key statistics
Blue Bird’s market cap is $1.78B, with a P/E ratio of 6.8 and revenue of $1.61B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $1.78B
- P/E ratio
- 6.8
- Forward P/E
- 12.5
- EPS, TTM
- $8.45
- Gekko Fair Value
- $85.67
Trading
- Volume
- 198,053
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 499,654
- 52-week high
- $83.39
- 52-week low
- $46.14
- Shares outstanding
- 31.35M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $1.61B
- Profit margin
- 17.5%
- Return on equity
- 64.3%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +370.5%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 1.36
- Typical daily move
- ±3.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±9.1%
Blue Bird stock news this week
Coverage of Blue Bird this week reads positive: 4 positive, 0 neutral and 2 negative headlines.
- Contrasting Blue Bird (NASDAQ:BLBD) and IDEX (NYSE:IEX)Defense World, Oct 12
- Blue Bird (BLBD) Registers a Bigger Fall Than the Market: Important Facts to NoteYahoo! Finance Canada, Oct 7
- Lower loan margins accompany Blue Bird (BLBD)'s credit expansion, with maturity extended to 2031.Stock Titan, Oct 6
- Blue Bird Closes $600 Million Credit Facility Refinancing, Extends Maturity to 2031Yahoo Finance, Oct 6
- School bus maker Blue Bird now has lower loan rates and $600 million in credit capacity.Stock Titan, Oct 6
- Bear of the Day: Blue Bird (BLBD)Yahoo Finance, Oct 5
Blue Bird peers
Blue Bird’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| TSLATesla | Neutral | 11.8% above |
| GMGeneral Motors | Neutral | 11.2% below |
| RACEFerrari | Accumulation | 13.1% above |
| FFord Motor | Accumulation | 16.9% below |
| RIVNRivian Automotive | Buying | 19.9% below |
| STLAStellantis | Accumulation | 25.5% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Blue Bird stock FAQ
What is Blue Bird’s market cap?
Blue Bird’s market cap is $1.78B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $56.29, with 31.35M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 6.8.
What is the Blue Bird stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Blue Bird is $89.12, +58.3% from the last close. Of the 7 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 7 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Blue Bird stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Blue Bird is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $56.29 is 34.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $85.67. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Blue Bird report earnings next?
Blue Bird is expected to report on Nov 23, 2026, after the market closes (42 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.48 per share on revenue of $551.5M. Blue Bird beat the earnings estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports, moving 8% on average across the report.
What is Blue Bird’s 52-week high and low?
Blue Bird’s 52-week high is $83.39 and its 52-week low is $46.14; it closed at $56.29 on Oct 12, 2026, +1.6% over the past year.
Is Blue Bird stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and earnings risk), 1 as mixed (seasonality) and 1 as a headwind (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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