Oct 12 close
This week's attention around Harley-Davidson centers on the upcoming announcement that third-quarter 2026 results will be released on 29 October, with a conference call at 8:00 a.m. CT. Separately, Indian Motorcycle's CEO publicly criticized Harley-Davidson's withdrawal from the King of the Baggers race series, and shares rose 2.86% to $26.94 on 6 October, outperforming a session in which the S&P 500 gained 0.58% and the Dow rose 0.49%. A filing noted RVW Wealth LLC cut its stake by 36% during the quarter while retaining a holding valued near $9.45 million.
HOG closed at $27.37, up 1.7%, sitting above both its 50-day average of $26.73 and 200-day average of $23.46, with the 50-day above the 200-day. The stock's one-month return is -1.8%, while three- and six-month returns stand at 9.1% and 19.6%. The GekkoIndex reads 53.1, placing it in the Neutral zone, down 8.1 over five days. Price remains 22.4% below Gekko Fair Value of $35.28.
Earnings on 29 October, 16 days out, fall inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the last report on 23 July saw EPS of $0.75 against a $0.62 estimate, followed by a -7.7% reaction, with 4 beats in the last 8 quarters and an average absolute reaction of 4.6%. Over the last 90 days, insiders made 3 open-market purchases totaling $1,439,491. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged 3.4% over 5 years, rising in 2 of those years. Analyst consensus across 10 firms shows 5 buy, 3 hold, and 2 sell ratings, with a consensus target of $27.90.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Harley-Davidson scores 3 supportive, 2 mixed and 1 headwind across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive2 mixed1 headwind
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $27.37 is above the 50-day ($26.73) and 200-day ($23.46) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart53.1, Neutral
Reading 53.1 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex22.4% below
Price is 22.4% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair valueLeans bullish
Last 90 days: 3 open-market insider purchases.
See smart moneyReports in 17 days
Reports on Oct 29, 2026, 17 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings+3.4% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +3.4% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonalityA description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Harley-Davidson closed at $27.37 on Oct 12, 2026, +3.3% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $17.09 to $28.86.
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Put HOG on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.
Harley-Davidson designs, builds and sells motorcycles, offering cruiser, touring, standard, sportbike and dual-purpose models along with parts, accessories and apparel carrying its name. The company is widely recognized for these motorcycles, which reach riders through independent dealers and online sales across North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and the Asia-Pacific region.
The business runs through two main arms. One handles the creation and distribution of the motorcycles themselves plus related gear and services, while the other, a financial services unit, supports the sales process. That financing arm extends wholesale credit to dealers for inventory, offers installment loans to buyers of new and used bikes, sells insurance and service or maintenance plans at the point of sale, and licenses its brand to partners issuing co-branded credit cards.
Founded in 1903, Harley-Davidson is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Its stock trades on the NYSE under the ticker HOG.
Harley-Davidson’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 53.1, in the Neutral zone, down 8.1 points over five sessions.
Down 8.1 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 43 | +1.3% | −1.0% | ||
| Accumulation | 283 | −0.4% | −1.1% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 335 | +0.1% | +0.1% | ||
| Distribution | 20 | −1.1% | +4.0% | ||
| Selling | 1 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average HOG share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
Harley-Davidson trades 22.4% below Gekko Fair Value of $35.28, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Harley-Davidson shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$35.28
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
22.4% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 25.8% below the estimate.
Insiders filed 3 open-market purchases in Harley-Davidson worth $1.44M, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
$1.44Min 3 open-market purchases
| Filed | Insider | Type | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13 | Littleton Gayle officer: CLO, CCO, CAO & Corp Sec | Purchase | $198K |
| Aug 11 | Artie Starrs President & CEO | Purchase | $259K |
| Aug 3 | Daniel J Nova Director | Purchase | $983K |
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
No trades in HOG were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Harley-Davidson has been buying back its own shares.
From company filings.
Harley-Davidson reports on Oct 29, 2026, before the open (17 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.
Oct 29, 2026
Expected before the open, 17 days away
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | $0.75 est $0.62 | $1.10B est $1.17B | −7.7% |
| May 5, 2026 | $0.22 est $0.34 | $1.06B est $1.01B | +2.7% |
| Feb 10, 2026 | −$2.44 est −$0.92 | $379.2M est $484.6M | +2.2% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $3.10 est $1.38 | $1.07B est $509.3M | −6.2% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | $0.88 est $0.99 | $1.31B est $1.05B | +6.0% |
| May 1, 2025 | $1.07 est $0.80 | $1.33B est $1.18B | +4.9% |
| Feb 5, 2025 | −$0.93 est −$0.65 | $687.6M est $1.37B | −0.4% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | $0.91 est $0.79 | $1.15B est $463.1M | −6.7% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Harley-Davidson is $27.90, +1.9% from the last close, from 10 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 10 firms.
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 | Citi | $33 | +20.6% |
| Sep 8 | Citi | $31 | +13.3% |
| Sep 2 | UBS | $28 | +2.3% |
| Aug 17 | D.A. Davidson | $33 | +20.6% |
| Jul 28 | Morgan Stanley | $17 | −37.9% |
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Harley-Davidson averaged +3.4% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +2.7% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +1.0% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +3.0% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +3.4% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +4.2% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, HOG’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 6.7%.
Harley-Davidson’s market cap is $2.88B, with a P/E ratio of 14.7 and revenue of $4.24B over the last twelve months.
Coverage of Harley-Davidson this week reads neutral: 5 positive, 6 neutral and 2 negative headlines.
Harley-Davidson’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| TSLATesla | Neutral | 11.8% above |
| GMGeneral Motors | Neutral | 11.2% below |
| RACEFerrari | Accumulation | 13.1% above |
| FFord Motor | Accumulation | 16.9% below |
| RIVNRivian Automotive | Buying | 19.9% below |
| STLAStellantis | Accumulation | 25.5% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Harley-Davidson’s market cap is $2.88B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $27.37, with 104.1M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 14.7.
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Harley-Davidson is $27.90, +1.9% from the last close. Of the 10 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 5 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 2 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
On Gekko’s estimate Harley-Davidson is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $27.37 is 22.4% below Gekko Fair Value of $35.28. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
Harley-Davidson is expected to report on Oct 29, 2026, before the market opens (17 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.47 per share on revenue of $1.07B. Harley-Davidson beat the earnings estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports, moving 4.6% on average across the report.
Harley-Davidson’s 52-week high is $28.86 and its 52-week low is $17.09; it closed at $27.37 on Oct 12, 2026, +3.3% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $51.77 on Feb 2, 2023.
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (trend, fair value and smart money), 2 as mixed (gekkoindex and seasonality) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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