Petrobras (PBR) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Nov 4 close

$19.61−1.47 (−7.0%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryNov 4 close

Petrobras shares fell sharply this week, dropping about 6.97% to $19.61, amid investor anxiety over Brazilian political developments and energy policy uncertainty. Against that backdrop, the company announced a third oil discovery in the Morpho well in block FZA-M-59, in the ultra-deep waters of Brazil's Equatorial Margin, reinforcing its exploration strategy to replenish reserves. Separately, analysts trimmed their average 12-month price target to $23.67 from $23.93, still implying upside, ahead of next week's earnings report.

Price now sits at $19.61, between the 50-day average of $22.11 and the 200-day average of $19.26, a mixed trend picture. The GekkoIndex reads 68.3, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, up 5.3 points over the past five sessions. Shares trade 42.5% below the Gekko Fair Value of $34.10.

Petrobras reports third-quarter results after the close on 10 November 2026, five days away and inside a typical 20-trading-day hold; its prior release showed EPS of $1.62 against an estimate of $1.52, with a -2.2% reaction. No insider or Congress activity appears in the past 90 days, and no unusual options activity appears in the past 30 days. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 1.8% gain over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Written by AI from the Nov 4, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

Petrobras price vs fair value

▲$34.10$19.61Nov ’25May ’26Nov ’26
Close $19.61200-day averageGekko Fair Value $34.10

Petrobras quick facts

Market cap
$126.4B
P/E ratio
5.3
Forward P/E
8.5
EPS, TTM
$3.96
Revenue, TTM
$548.5B
Profit margin
24.3%
Dividend yield
16.60%
Beta
-0.23
Volume
35.38M avg 27.18M
1-year return
+65.9%
Typical daily move
±5.6%
Typical 20-day move
±7.1%
50-day average
$22.11
200-day average
$19.26
Next earnings
Nov 10 after close
Shares outstanding
3.72B
52-week range
$11.43$26.39

Petrobras swing-trade checklist

Petrobras scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $19.61 sits between the 50-day ($22.11) and 200-day ($19.26) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    68.3, Accumulation

    Reading 68.3 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    42.5% below

    Price is 42.5% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 5 days

    Reports on Nov 10, 2026, 5 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +1.8% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +1.8% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Petrobras stock chart and price history

Petrobras closed at $19.61 on Nov 4, 2026, +65.9% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $11.43 to $26.39.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Petrobras share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$15$25DecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct19.61

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−17.6%
3 months
+5.9%
6 months
−6.2%
1 year
+65.9%
The full PBR chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open PBR in Gekko

Follow Petrobras through every session

Put PBR on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About Petrobras

Petrobras works across the full oil and gas business, pulling crude out of the ground in Brazil and other countries and then moving it through refining, trading and distribution. Its reach covers onshore fields, offshore platforms and shale formations, and it also handles natural gas and various refined fuels sold to end markets.

The business is split into four segments. One unit hunts for and develops crude, natural gas liquids and gas, mostly to keep the firm's domestic refineries supplied. Another oversees refining, shipping, sales and trading of crude and fuel products, sends ethanol abroad, works shale deposits and holds shares in petrochemical firms. A third segment trades natural gas and power, moves and sells LNG, runs thermoelectric plants, holds interests in gas pipeline and delivery systems, and produces fertilizer while processing gas. The last segment makes biodiesel and related byproducts, produces ethanol and distributes petroleum products more broadly.

Petrobras traces back to 1953 and runs its operations out of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Its stock carries the ticker PBR.

Sector
Energy minerals
Website
petrobras.com.br

Petrobras GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Petrobras’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 68.3, in the Accumulation zone, up 5.3 points over five sessions.

010068.3Accumulation

Up 5.3 points over five sessions.

Reading for Nov 4, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying52+1.1%+4.2%+10.5%+15.1%
Accumulation (current zone)193+0.5%+1.6%+2.7%+5.5%
Neutral347+0.1%−0.2%−0.4%+0.6%
Distribution58+2.0%+2.8%+6.7%+9.7%
Selling0Not available

Average PBR share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.0% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the PBR price, zone by zone.Track PBR in Gekko

Is Petrobras stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Petrobras trades 42.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $34.10, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Petrobras shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$34.10

Gekko Fair Value, Nov 4, 2026

42.5% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 6.0% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$34$21Aug 2026SepOctNov 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open PBR in Gekko

Petrobras insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Petrobras, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for PBR in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every PBR insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open PBR in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in PBR were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for PBR, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open PBR in Gekko

Buybacks

Petrobras has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Dec 31, 2024
$4.86M
As a share of market cap
0.00%

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Dec 31

0of the funds Gekko tracks hold PBR.

0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

Petrobras earnings: next date and track record

Petrobras reports on Nov 10, 2026, after the close (5 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.

5 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±4.1%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+2.1%Nov ’24−6.4%Feb ’25+3.3%May ’25−7.4%Aug ’25+5.9%Nov ’25+4.9%Mar ’26+0.8%May ’26−2.2%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 6, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Petrobras reported record-high recurring net profit and gross profit in Q2 2026, the highest in company history. Oil production reached 2.7 million barrels per day (3 million BOE/day), surpassing the 2.5 million barrel target by 200,000 bpd. Refinery utilization exceeded 100%, byproduct production grew 6% QoQ, and oil exports increased 12%. Results were achieved without asset sales, supported by Brent above $100/barrel and accelerated platform deliveries including P-78 and P-79.
Guidance
Management expects continued production growth driven by additional platform deliveries scheduled for the remainder of 2026. Increased cash flow generation will fund future investments and long-term company growth, with capital discipline remaining a stated priority.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 6, 2026$1.62
est $1.52
+6.6%$33.61B
est $31.46B
+6.8%−2.2%
May 11, 2026$0.96
est $1.02
−5.9%$23.54B
est $26.53B
−11.3%+0.8%
Mar 5, 2026$0.72
est $0.57
+26.3%$23.61B
est $23.09B
+2.2%+4.9%
Nov 6, 2025$0.82
est $0.79
+3.8%$23.48B
est $23.58B
−0.4%+5.9%
Aug 8, 2025$0.64
est $0.70
−8.6%$21.04B
est $21.29B
−1.2%−7.4%
May 12, 2025$0.62
est $0.92
−32.6%$21.07B
est $22.30B
−5.5%+3.3%
Feb 26, 2025$0.49
est $0.37
+32.4%$20.82B
est $21.45B
−2.9%−6.4%
Nov 7, 2024$0.93
est $0.82
+13.4%$23.37B
est $22.46B
+4.0%+2.1%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Petrobras stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Petrobras is $24.14, +23.1% from the last close, from 6 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$24.14consensus 12-month target, +23.1% from the last close
Low $20High $24.30
Buy5
Hold1
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 6 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Nov 3CitiHold, maintained$21.50+9.6%
Oct 29Bank of America SecuritiesBuy, maintained——
Oct 26Bank of America SecuritiesBuy, maintained——
Oct 21Goldman SachsBuy, maintained$24.30+23.9%
Oct 14Bank of America SecuritiesBuy, reiterated$28+42.8%
+2.7%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+1.8%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±5.6%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Petrobras seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Nov 4, Petrobras averaged +1.8% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+11.5%2021−12.4%2022−6.7%2023+7.4%2024+8.2%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+2.5%3 of 5
Next 10 trading days+3.3%4 of 5
Next 15 trading days+1.9%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days+1.8%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days−2.1%2 of 5

For scale, PBR’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 7.1%.

Petrobras market cap and key statistics

Petrobras’s market cap is $126.4B, with a P/E ratio of 5.3 and revenue of $548.5B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$126.4B
P/E ratio
5.3
Forward P/E
8.5
EPS, TTM
$3.96
Gekko Fair Value
$34.10

Trading

Volume
35.38M
Avg volume, 20 days
27.18M
52-week high
$26.39
52-week low
$11.43
Shares outstanding
3.72B

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$548.5B
Profit margin
24.3%
Return on equity
30.3%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+96.8%

Risk and income

Beta
-0.23
Typical daily move
±5.6%
Typical 20-day move
±7.1%
Dividend yield
16.60%

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Petrobras stock FAQ

What is Petrobras’s market cap?

Petrobras’s market cap is $126.4B at the Nov 4, 2026 close of $19.61, with 3.72B shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 5.3.

What is the Petrobras stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Petrobras is $24.14, +23.1% from the last close. Of the 6 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 5 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Petrobras stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Petrobras is undervalued: the Nov 4, 2026 close of $19.61 is 42.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $34.10. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Petrobras report earnings next?

Petrobras is expected to report on Nov 10, 2026, after the market closes (5 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.23 per share on revenue of $33.26B. Petrobras beat the earnings estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, moving 4.1% on average across the report.

What is Petrobras’s 52-week high and low?

Petrobras’s 52-week high is $26.39 and its 52-week low is $11.43; it closed at $19.61 on Nov 4, 2026, +65.9% over the past year.

Is Petrobras stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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