Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for MPC in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every MPC insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MPC in Gekko
NYSE: MPC
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Nov 4 close
$392.68−34.66 (−8.1%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryNov 4 closeMarathon Petroleum fell this week after third-quarter earnings that beat expectations, with adjusted earnings per share of $26.93 against an estimate of $25.37, driven by strong refining margins and record utilization. The results coincided with a definitive agreement for CVR Energy to acquire MPC's St. Paul Park and Mandan refineries and related marketing business for approximately $4.2 billion, part of a broader portfolio shift toward the Gulf Coast. Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $458 while maintaining an Overweight rating, whereas Raymond James cut its target from $560 to $550. Shares also came under pressure alongside peers Chevron and Exxon Mobil following midterm election results that gave Democrats control of the Senate.
MPC closed at $392.68, down 8.1%, sitting below its 50-day average of $421.26 but above its 200-day average of $294.10. The GekkoIndex reads 65.9, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone. The price sits 10.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $439.09.
The next earnings date falls on 2 February 2027, 89 days out, beyond a typical 20-trading-day holding window. Options activity over the last 30 days shows 1 unusual signal, with put premium of $9,052,525 well above call premium of $350,715. Seasonality over 5 years shows an average 20-day return of 0.7% from this point in the calendar, with gains in 3 of those years. Analyst coverage from 16 firms shows 9 buy and 7 hold ratings, with a consensus target of $458.72.
Written by AI from the Nov 4, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Marathon Petroleum price vs fair value
Close $392.68200-day averageGekko Fair Value $439.09
Marathon Petroleum quick facts
- Market cap
- $110.3B
- P/E ratio
- 14.9
- Forward P/E
- 6.3
- EPS, TTM
- $28.88
- Revenue, TTM
- $154.1B
- Profit margin
- 5.6%
- Dividend yield
- 0.90%
- Beta
- 0.51
- Volume
- 4.01M avg 2.22M
- 1-year return
- +100.6%
- Typical daily move
- ±5.5%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±7.1%
- 50-day average
- $421.26
- 200-day average
- $294.10
- Next earnings
- Feb 2
- Shares outstanding
- 280.8M
Marathon Petroleum swing-trade checklist
Marathon Petroleum scores 4 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
4 supportive1 mixed1 headwind
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $392.68 sits between the 50-day ($421.26) and 200-day ($294.10) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
65.9, Accumulation
Reading 65.9 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
10.6% below
Price is 10.6% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyheadwind
Leans bearish
Last 30 days: 1 unusual options signal.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 89 days
Next report Feb 2, 2027, 89 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+0.7% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +0.7% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Marathon Petroleum stock chart and price history
Marathon Petroleum closed at $392.68 on Nov 4, 2026, +100.6% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $161.93 to $493.98.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −9.2%
- 3 months
- +31.2%
- 6 months
- +59.8%
- 1 year
- +100.6%
The full MPC chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open MPC in Gekko
Follow Marathon Petroleum through every session
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About Marathon Petroleum
Marathon Petroleum processes crude oil and other raw materials into fuels and related products at refineries positioned along the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States. Its output includes various gasoline blends, heavy fuel oil, asphalt, and chemical products such as aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. The company is widely associated with its Marathon-branded retail presence and its supply relationship with ARCO-branded dealer locations.
The company operates through two segments. Refining & Marketing covers the production and sale of fuels and chemicals, reaching wholesale buyers at home and abroad, spot-market purchasers, and independent operators running branded retail sites, along with dealers supplied under long-term fuel agreements. Midstream handles the transport, storage, and marketing of crude oil and refined products through pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges, and separately gathers, processes, and moves natural gas and natural gas liquids.
Marathon Petroleum was established in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker MPC.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy minerals
- Industry
- Oil refining/Marketing
- Website
- marathonpetroleum.com
Marathon Petroleum GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Marathon Petroleum’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 65.9, in the Accumulation zone, up 10.8 points over five sessions.
65.9Accumulation
Up 10.8 points over five sessions, from the Neutral zone.
Reading for Nov 4, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 36 | +2.3% | +8.8% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 175 | +0.7% | +4.3% | ||
| Neutral | 403 | +1.0% | +2.7% | ||
| Distribution | 82 | +0.4% | +4.3% | ||
| Selling | 1 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average MPC share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.0% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the MPC price, zone by zone.Track MPC in Gekko
Is Marathon Petroleum stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Marathon Petroleum trades 10.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $439.09, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Marathon Petroleum shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$439.09
Gekko Fair Value, Nov 4, 2026
10.6% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 1.2% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open MPC in Gekko
Marathon Petroleum insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Marathon Petroleum, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in MPC were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for MPC, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MPC in Gekko
Buybacks
Marathon Petroleum has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $2.53B
- As a share of market cap
- 2.30%
- Trailing four quarters
- $4.93B
From company filings.
Unusual options activity last 30 days
1signal, 4% of the flagged premium in calls.
Latest: Bearish flow on Oct 10, $9.40M in unusual premium.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
1of the funds Gekko tracks holds MPC.
0added1opened0trimmed0sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko
Marathon Petroleum earnings: next date and track record
Marathon Petroleum reports on Feb 2, 2027 (89 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Feb 2, 2027
89 days away
- EPS estimate
- $21.20
- Revenue estimate
- $45.58B
7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±5.2%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | $26.93 est $25.37 | $56.49B est $46.60B | −8.8% |
| Aug 4, 2026 | $17.73 est $14.27 | $52.34B est $40.87B | −3.0% |
| May 5, 2026 | $1.65 est $0.75 | $34.57B est $33.42B | −2.7% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | $4.07 est $2.72 | $33.42B est $31.08B | +10.7% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $3.01 est $3.15 | $34.81B est $33.45B | −4.9% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | $3.96 est $3.24 | $33.80B est $33.32B | −3.3% |
| May 6, 2025 | −$0.24 est −$0.54 | $31.85B est $31.87B | +0.9% |
| Feb 4, 2025 | $0.77 est $0.02 | $33.47B est $33.14B | +7.0% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Marathon Petroleum stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Marathon Petroleum is $458.72, +16.8% from the last close, from 16 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$458.72consensus 12-month target, +16.8% from the last close
Now $392.68Avg $458.72
Low $323High $564
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 16 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | TD Cowen | $478 | +21.7% |
| Nov 4 | Freedom Capital Markets | $425 | +8.2% |
| Nov 4 | Morgan Stanley | $458 | +16.6% |
| Nov 4 | Wells Fargo | $564 | +43.6% |
| Oct 22 | TD Cowen | $478 | +21.7% |
+4.3%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+0.7%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±5.5%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Marathon Petroleum seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Nov 4, Marathon Petroleum averaged +0.7% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +3.9% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +3.7% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +2.3% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +0.7% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | −3.3% | 1 of 5 |
For scale, MPC’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 7.1%.
Marathon Petroleum market cap and key statistics
Marathon Petroleum’s market cap is $110.3B, with a P/E ratio of 14.9 and revenue of $154.1B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $110.3B
- P/E ratio
- 14.9
- Forward P/E
- 6.3
- EPS, TTM
- $28.88
- Gekko Fair Value
- $439.09
Trading
- Volume
- 4.01M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 2.22M
- 52-week high
- $493.98
- 52-week low
- $161.93
- Shares outstanding
- 280.8M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $154.1B
- Profit margin
- 5.6%
- Return on equity
- 42.1%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +348.0%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.51
- Typical daily move
- ±5.5%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±7.1%
- Dividend yield
- 0.90%
Marathon Petroleum stock news this week
Coverage of Marathon Petroleum this week reads positive: 12 positive, 3 neutral and 2 negative headlines.
- Oil Stocks Chevron (CVX), Marathon (MPC), and Exxon Mobil (XOM) Take a Beating on Midterm ResultsTipRanks, Nov 4
- Marathon Petroleum Earnings: Divestiture of Refining Assets Focuses Portfolio on Gulf CoastMorningstar, Nov 4
- Marathon Petroleum Drops Nearly Six Percent on Wall Street : 기업주식정보 : JKN재경일보, Nov 4
- How to Play MPC Stock After Its Compelling 795% YoY Earnings Surge?Zacks Investment Research, Nov 4
- MPC Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates on Strong Refining MarginsZacks Investment Research, Nov 4
- CVR Energy to acquire two refineries and marketing platform from Marathon PetroleumHydrocarbon Engineering, Nov 4
Marathon Petroleum peers
Marathon Petroleum’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| VLOValero Energy | Accumulation | 4.0% below |
| PSXPhillips 66 | Accumulation | 4.9% above |
| DINOHF Sinclair | Accumulation | 5.8% above |
| PBFPBF Energy | Neutral | 14.5% below |
| CVICVR Energy | Buying | 5.1% above |
| DKDelek US | Accumulation | 16.6% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Marathon Petroleum stock FAQ
What is Marathon Petroleum’s market cap?
Marathon Petroleum’s market cap is $110.3B at the Nov 4, 2026 close of $392.68, with 280.8M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 14.9.
What is the Marathon Petroleum stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Marathon Petroleum is $458.72, +16.8% from the last close. Of the 16 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 9 rate it a buy, 7 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Marathon Petroleum stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Marathon Petroleum is undervalued: the Nov 4, 2026 close of $392.68 is 10.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $439.09. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Marathon Petroleum report earnings next?
Marathon Petroleum is expected to report on Feb 2, 2027 (89 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $21.20 per share on revenue of $45.58B. Marathon Petroleum beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 5.2% on average across the report.
What is Marathon Petroleum’s 52-week high and low?
Marathon Petroleum’s 52-week high is $493.98 and its 52-week low is $161.93; it closed at $392.68 on Nov 4, 2026, +100.6% over the past year.
Is Marathon Petroleum stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, earnings risk and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend) and 1 as a headwind (smart money). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
Is there unusual options activity in Marathon Petroleum?
Gekko flagged 1 unusual options signal in Marathon Petroleum over the last 30 days, with $351K of flagged premium in calls and $9.05M in puts. The latest, bearish flow, was on Oct 10, 2026 with $9.40M in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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