Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for MPC in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every MPC insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MPC in Gekko
NYSE: MPC
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Stock Analysis & Forecast
$424.89+2.93 (+0.7%)
Close on Sep 18, 2026. Page updated Sep 19, 9:18 pm ET.
Gekko Brief
AI summaryMarathon Petroleum (MPC) closes at $424.89, up 0.7%, holding well above both its 50-day ($347.06) and 200-day ($251.26) averages, with the shorter average above the longer one. The GekkoIndex reads 39, placing the stock in the Distribution zone, while price sits 9.9% above Gekko Fair Value of $386.48. One-month return stands at 17.8%, three-month at 74.9%, and the stock trades near its 52-week high of $428.
This week's coverage centers on the stock's rally to fresh highs, with shares touching an all-time high near $409.63 before extending further, alongside a scheduled third-quarter earnings call announcement for 3 November 2026. Reporting attributes recent strength to Middle East supply disruptions, elevated refining margins, and accelerated share buybacks, alongside bullish analyst commentary. Separately, options activity shows notable put volume, including interest in a January 2027 $350 put, described as hedging by long-term holders even as the shares advance. Bank of America Corp DE is reported to have taken a new stake of over 2.4 million shares valued at approximately $621.8 million.
Looking ahead to the next 20 trading days, earnings are scheduled for 3 November 2026, 44 days out, placing the report outside a typical holding window. Over the last 30 days, one unusual options signal has been recorded, with put premium of $2,373,030 against call premium of $491,810. Seasonally, this calendar stretch has averaged a 4.1% gain over five years, rising in 2 of those years. Analyst coverage from 16 firms shows 10 buy and 6 hold ratings, with a consensus target of $370.17.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 20, 2026 from the data above.
Price vs fair value
Close $424.89200-day averageGekko Fair Value $386.48
Key stats
- Market cap
- $124.0B
- P/E ratio
- 14.4
- Forward P/E
- 12.6
- EPS, TTM
- $29.41
- Revenue, TTM
- $154.1B
- Profit margin
- 5.6%
- Dividend yield
- 0.97%
- Beta
- 0.53
- Volume
- 9.75M avg 2.78M
- 1-year return
- +130.1%
- Typical daily move
- ±3.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±7%
- 50-day average
- $347.06
- 200-day average
- $251.26
- Next earnings
- Nov 3
- Shares outstanding
- 280.8M
Marathon Petroleum swing-trade checklist
Marathon Petroleum scores 2 supportive, 1 mixed and 3 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
2 supportive1 mixed3 headwinds
- Trendsupportive
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $424.89 is above the 50-day ($347.06) and 200-day ($251.26) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexheadwind
39, Distribution
Reading 39 is in the Distribution zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valueheadwind
9.9% above
Price is 9.9% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).
See fair value - Smart moneyheadwind
Leans bearish
Last 30 days: 1 unusual options signal.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 44 days
Next report Nov 3, 2026, 44 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitymixed
+4.1% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +4.1% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Marathon Petroleum stock chart and price history
Marathon Petroleum closed at $424.89 on Sep 18, 2026, +130.1% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $161.93 to $428.00.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +17.8%
- 3 months
- +74.9%
- 6 months
- +80.2%
- 1 year
- +130.1%
The full MPC chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open MPC in Gekko
Follow Marathon Petroleum through every session
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About Marathon Petroleum
Marathon Petroleum processes crude oil and other raw materials into fuels and related products at refineries positioned along the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States. Its output includes various gasoline blends, heavy fuel oil, asphalt, and chemical products such as aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. The company is widely associated with its Marathon-branded retail presence and its supply relationship with ARCO-branded dealer locations.
The company operates through two segments. Refining & Marketing covers the production and sale of fuels and chemicals, reaching wholesale buyers at home and abroad, spot-market purchasers, and independent operators running branded retail sites, along with dealers supplied under long-term fuel agreements. Midstream handles the transport, storage, and marketing of crude oil and refined products through pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges, and separately gathers, processes, and moves natural gas and natural gas liquids.
Marathon Petroleum was established in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker MPC.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy minerals
- Industry
- Oil refining/Marketing
- Website
- marathonpetroleum.com
Marathon Petroleum GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Marathon Petroleum’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 39, in the Distribution zone, down 7.7 points over five sessions.
39Distribution
Down 7.7 points over five sessions, from the Neutral zone.
Reading for Sep 18, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 36 | +2.3% | +8.8% | ||
| Accumulation | 175 | +0.7% | +4.3% | ||
| Neutral | 378 | +0.8% | +2.0% | ||
| Distribution (current zone) | 72 | +0.8% | +2.9% | ||
| Selling | 1 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average MPC share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Distribution readings averaged +1.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Distribution zone: Institutions potentially offloading. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the MPC price, zone by zone.Track MPC in Gekko
Is Marathon Petroleum stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Marathon Petroleum trades 9.9% above Gekko Fair Value of $386.48, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Marathon Petroleum shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$386.48
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 19, 2026
9.9% Overvalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open MPC in Gekko
Marathon Petroleum insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Marathon Petroleum, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in MPC were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for MPC, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MPC in Gekko
Buybacks
Marathon Petroleum has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $2.53B
- As a share of market cap
- 2.04%
- Trailing four quarters
- $4.93B
From company filings.
Unusual options activity last 30 days
1signal, 17% of the flagged premium in calls.
Latest: Bearish flow on Sep 11, $2.86M in unusual premium.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
1of the funds Gekko tracks holds MPC.
0added1opened0trimmed0sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko
Marathon Petroleum earnings: next date and track record
Marathon Petroleum reports on Nov 3, 2026 (44 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 3, 2026
44 days away
- EPS estimate
- $22.36
- Revenue estimate
- $44.18B
7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±5%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | $17.73 est $14.27 | $52.34B est $40.87B | −3.0% |
| May 5, 2026 | $1.65 est $0.75 | $34.57B est $33.42B | −2.7% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | $4.07 est $2.72 | $33.42B est $31.08B | +10.7% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $3.01 est $3.15 | $34.81B est $33.45B | −4.9% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | $3.96 est $3.24 | $33.80B est $33.32B | −3.3% |
| May 6, 2025 | −$0.24 est −$0.54 | $31.85B est $31.87B | +0.9% |
| Feb 4, 2025 | $0.77 est $0.02 | $33.47B est $33.14B | +7.0% |
| Nov 5, 2024 | $1.87 est $1.28 | $35.37B est $34.34B | +7.1% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Marathon Petroleum stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Marathon Petroleum is $370.17, −12.9% from the last close, from 16 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$370.17consensus 12-month target, −12.9% from the last close
Now $424.89Avg $370.17
Low $290High $462
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 16 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14 | Raymond James | $445 | +4.7% |
| Sep 14 | UBS | $450 | +5.9% |
| Sep 14 | Morgan Stanley | $453 | +6.6% |
| Sep 10 | Bank of America Securities | $410 | −3.5% |
| Sep 8 | UBS | $450 | +5.9% |
+2.9%average 20-day move after past Distribution readings
+4.1%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.2%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Marathon Petroleum seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 19, Marathon Petroleum averaged +4.1% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +1.6% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +3.7% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +3.5% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +4.1% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +5.6% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, MPC’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 7%.
Marathon Petroleum market cap and key statistics
Marathon Petroleum’s market cap is $124.0B, with a P/E ratio of 14.4 and revenue of $154.1B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $124.0B
- P/E ratio
- 14.4
- Forward P/E
- 12.6
- EPS, TTM
- $29.41
- Gekko Fair Value
- $386.48
Trading
- Volume
- 9.75M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 2.78M
- 52-week high
- $428.00
- 52-week low
- $161.93
- Shares outstanding
- 280.8M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $154.1B
- Profit margin
- 5.6%
- Return on equity
- 42.1%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +348.0%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.53
- Typical daily move
- ±3.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±7%
- Dividend yield
- 0.97%
Marathon Petroleum stock news this week
Coverage of Marathon Petroleum this week reads positive: 10 positive, 4 neutral and 0 negative headlines.
- Marathon Petroleum Corp. to Report Third-Quarter Financial Results on November 3, 2026Lelezard, Sep 17
- Marathon Petroleum options activity points to hedging by long-term holdersInvesting.com, Sep 17
- Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Exceeds Market Returns: Some Facts to ConsiderZacks Investment Research, Sep 17
- Bank of America Corp DE Takes Position in Marathon Petroleum Corporation $MPCMarketBeat, Sep 16
- Marathon Petroleum Corp. stock outperforms competitors on strong trading dayMarketWatch, Sep 15
- Marathon Petroleum Corp Stock (MPC) Moved Up by 3.44% on Sep 15: Facts Behind the MovementTradingKey, Sep 15
Marathon Petroleum peers
Marathon Petroleum’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| VLOValero Energy | Distribution | 22.1% above |
| PSXPhillips 66 | Distribution | 22.5% above |
| DINOHF Sinclair | Distribution | 33.1% above |
| PBFPBF Energy | Neutral | 1.3% below |
| CVICVR Energy | Distribution | 68.3% above |
| CLMTCalumet | Distribution | 34.9% above |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Marathon Petroleum stock FAQ
What is Marathon Petroleum’s market cap?
Marathon Petroleum’s market cap is $124.0B at the Sep 18, 2026 close of $424.89, with 280.8M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 14.4.
What is the Marathon Petroleum stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Marathon Petroleum is $370.17, −12.9% from the last close. Of the 16 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 10 rate it a buy, 6 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Marathon Petroleum stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Marathon Petroleum is overvalued: the Sep 18, 2026 close of $424.89 is 9.9% above Gekko Fair Value of $386.48. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Marathon Petroleum report earnings next?
Marathon Petroleum is expected to report on Nov 3, 2026 (44 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $22.36 per share on revenue of $44.18B. Marathon Petroleum beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 5% on average across the report.
What is Marathon Petroleum’s 52-week high and low?
Marathon Petroleum’s 52-week high is $428.00 and its 52-week low is $161.93; it closed at $424.89 on Sep 18, 2026, +130.1% over the past year.
Is Marathon Petroleum stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (trend and earnings risk), 1 as mixed (seasonality) and 3 as headwinds (gekkoindex, fair value and smart money). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
Is there unusual options activity in Marathon Petroleum?
Gekko flagged 1 unusual options signal in Marathon Petroleum over the last 30 days, with $492K of flagged premium in calls and $2.37M in puts. The latest, bearish flow, was on Sep 11, 2026 with $2.86M in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.
How this page works
Prices and signals update after every US market close; the GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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