Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for VLO in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every VLO insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open VLO in Gekko
NYSE: VLO
Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Analysis & Forecast
$413.28+0.75 (+0.2%)
Close on Sep 18, 2026. Page updated Sep 19, 9:16 pm ET.
Gekko Brief
AI summaryValero Energy (VLO) closes at $413.28, up 0.2%, and remains well above both its 50-day average of $337.66 and 200-day average of $249.50, confirming a supportive longer-term trend. The GekkoIndex reads 39.3, placing the stock in the Distribution zone and down 3.1 over five days. Price sits 22.1% above Gekko Fair Value of $338.55, a gap the checklist flags as a headwind.
This week's coverage centers on governance and sentiment rather than operations. Valero elected Matt Audette to its board, with a Form 3 filing noting his new insider status and a separate filing disclosing 372 stock units awarded to him. Elsewhere, commentary highlighted strong trading days for the stock, up 2.29% on 17 September and outperforming the S&P 500 and Dow that session, alongside notes on rising earnings estimate revisions. Other pieces questioned whether current 13-14x forward P/E ratios, following gains of over 150% this year for VLO and Marathon Petroleum, reflect peak-cycle earnings.
Looking ahead, the next earnings date falls on 22 October 2026, 32 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the last report on 30 July showed EPS of $12.54 against an estimate of $9.87, with an average absolute reaction of 2.8% across recent quarters. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the current windows. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 4.5% return over five years, rising in 2 of them, a mixed signal worth noting alongside the Distribution zone reading.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 20, 2026 from the data above.
Price vs fair value
Close $413.28200-day averageGekko Fair Value $338.55
Key stats
- Market cap
- $119.0B
- P/E ratio
- 16.8
- Forward P/E
- 15.2
- EPS, TTM
- $24.55
- Revenue, TTM
- $132.4B
- Profit margin
- 5.5%
- Dividend yield
- 1.16%
- Beta
- 0.57
- Volume
- 9.19M avg 3.11M
- 1-year return
- +152.5%
- Typical daily move
- ±3.3%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±7.5%
- 50-day average
- $337.66
- 200-day average
- $249.50
- Next earnings
- Oct 22
- Shares outstanding
- 287.9M
Valero Energy swing-trade checklist
Valero Energy scores 2 supportive, 1 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
2 supportive1 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendsupportive
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $413.28 is above the 50-day ($337.66) and 200-day ($249.50) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexheadwind
39.3, Distribution
Reading 39.3 is in the Distribution zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valueheadwind
22.1% above
Price is 22.1% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 32 days
Next report Oct 22, 2026, 32 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitymixed
+4.5% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +4.5% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Valero Energy stock chart and price history
Valero Energy closed at $413.28 on Sep 18, 2026, +152.5% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $155.29 to $416.66.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +19.4%
- 3 months
- +74.9%
- 6 months
- +70.7%
- 1 year
- +152.5%
The full VLO chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open VLO in Gekko
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About Valero Energy
Valero Energy produces and sells fuels used in transportation along with petrochemical products, serving customers across North America, the United Kingdom, Ireland and other overseas markets. Its output ranges from different gasoline blends and diesel types to jet fuel, asphalt, lubricants and various chemical feedstocks, and the company is perhaps best known for the wide network of fuel stations carrying its own name plus brands like Beacon, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar and Texaco.
Operations are split into three areas: refining, ethanol production, and renewable diesel. The refining side supplies most of its fuel and chemical products and also handles lube oil and natural gas liquid sales, drawing on a group of large-scale refineries. The ethanol business runs multiple production plants that also generate feed-related by-products sold mainly to livestock markets. A separate facility turns waste fats and used cooking oil into renewable diesel. Products move to market through wholesale and retail channels backed by pipelines, storage terminals, docks and truck loading points.
The company began in 1980 under a different name before becoming Valero Energy Corporation in 1997. It is based in San Antonio, Texas, and trades on the NYSE under the ticker VLO.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy minerals
- Industry
- Oil refining/Marketing
- Website
- valero.com
Valero Energy GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Valero Energy’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 39.3, in the Distribution zone, down 3.1 points over five sessions.
39.3Distribution
Down 3.1 points over five sessions.
Reading for Sep 18, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 21 | +1.2% | +11.4% | ||
| Accumulation | 180 | +1.4% | +4.0% | ||
| Neutral | 383 | +0.8% | +3.1% | ||
| Distribution (current zone) | 75 | +0.5% | +2.1% | ||
| Selling | 3 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average VLO share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Distribution readings averaged +1.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Distribution zone: Institutions potentially offloading. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the VLO price, zone by zone.Track VLO in Gekko
Is Valero Energy stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Valero Energy trades 22.1% above Gekko Fair Value of $338.55, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Valero Energy shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$338.55
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 19, 2026
22.1% Overvalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open VLO in Gekko
Valero Energy insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Valero Energy, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in VLO were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for VLO, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open VLO in Gekko
Buybacks
Valero Energy has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $2.26B
- As a share of market cap
- 1.90%
- Trailing four quarters
- $4.82B
From company filings.
Valero Energy earnings: next date and track record
Valero Energy reports on Oct 22, 2026 (32 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 22, 2026
32 days away
- EPS estimate
- $18.52
- Revenue estimate
- $39.53B
8 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±2.8%average move across the report
2 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 30, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Valero reported an exceptionally strong Q2 2026 driven by robust operational performance across refining, renewable diesel (RD) and ethanol. Net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $3.7 billion ($12.62 per share), up substantially year-over-year. Refining operating income was $4.5 billion; Renewable Diesel moved to a $717 million operating income from a prior-year loss; Ethanol operating income improved to $318 million. Refining throughput averaged ~3.0 million bpd and renewable diesel volumes averaged 3.8 million gallons per day; ethanol production averaged 4.7 million gallons per day. Management emphasized a strong balance sheet, continued cash build while maintaining a commitment to returning at least 50% of excess cash to shareholders, and announced a $1.20 per share dividend. Strategic items highlighted included completing an FCC optimization at St. Charles (a $230 million project) in Q3, continued disciplined capital allocation and select small growth opportunities (notably ethanol debottlenecks). Management characterized the macro backdrop as constructive: tight global product markets, constrained refining capacity, advantaged Gulf Coast crude access, and supportive mid-cycle refining fundamentals. They also discussed elevated D4 RIN values, feedstock dynamics, and potential structural upward pressure on mid-cycle margins.
- Guidance
- Forward-looking commentary included: expect completion of the St. Charles FCC optimization during Q3 2026 (a $230 million investment); management expects refining margins and capture rates to be constructive into Q3 versus Q2; long-term target cash balance remains $4.0-5.0 billion while continuing higher-than-50% shareholder returns when appropriate; no change to overall CapEx guidance and no intention to delay planned turnarounds; small ethanol debottlenecking expansions of ~100-200 million gallons/year expected within 1-2 years; no current intent to expand RD capacity given policy uncertainty; management noted continued constructive D4/RIN outlook through 2026-2027 but flagged uncertainty about the timing of when the RIN bank may be depleted.
- Risks flagged
- Key risks discussed include: geopolitical disruptions (Middle East, Russia-Ukraine) that can both create short-term tailwinds and long-term uncertainty; Russian refinery damage potentially taking longer to recover; commodity price volatility and potential rapid crude price pullbacks that can draw on working capital; RIN/RVO policy uncertainty (possibility of high D4 RINs, risk the RIN bank could be exhausted, and potential EPA actions driven by consumer affordability); tariffs and policy changes that could reduce foreign feedstock imports; SPR drawdown uncertainties; inflationary pressures on OpEx/CapEx; and turnaround/operational risks.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | $12.54 est $9.87 | $44.48B est $39.47B | +3.8% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | $4.22 est $3.16 | $32.38B est $31.38B | −1.8% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | $3.82 est $3.27 | $30.37B est $28.51B | −1.4% |
| Oct 23, 2025 | $3.66 est $3.05 | $32.17B est $29.96B | +5.7% |
| Jul 24, 2025 | $2.28 est $1.75 | $29.89B est $27.51B | −3.8% |
| Apr 24, 2025 | $0.89 est $0.41 | $30.26B est $28.76B | −0.5% |
| Jan 30, 2025 | $0.88 est $0.05 | $30.76B est $30.02B | −4.6% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | $1.14 est $0.98 | $32.85B est $31.04B | −0.4% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Valero Energy stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Valero Energy is $355.47, −14.0% from the last close, from 16 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$355.47consensus 12-month target, −14.0% from the last close
Now $413.28Avg $355.47
Low $276High $450
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 16 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14 | Morgan Stanley | $411 | −0.6% |
| Sep 14 | UBS | $450 | +8.9% |
| Sep 14 | Raymond James | $450 | +8.9% |
| Sep 10 | Bank of America Securities | $395 | −4.4% |
| Sep 10 | Barclays | $323 | −21.8% |
+2.1%average 20-day move after past Distribution readings
+4.5%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.3%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Valero Energy seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 19, Valero Energy averaged +4.5% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +2.1% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +3.6% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +4.0% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +4.5% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +6.3% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, VLO’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 7.5%.
Valero Energy market cap and key statistics
Valero Energy’s market cap is $119.0B, with a P/E ratio of 16.8 and revenue of $132.4B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $119.0B
- P/E ratio
- 16.8
- Forward P/E
- 15.2
- EPS, TTM
- $24.55
- Gekko Fair Value
- $338.55
Trading
- Volume
- 9.19M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 3.11M
- 52-week high
- $416.66
- 52-week low
- $155.29
- Shares outstanding
- 287.9M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $132.4B
- Profit margin
- 5.5%
- Return on equity
- 27.6%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +453.5%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.57
- Typical daily move
- ±3.3%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±7.5%
- Dividend yield
- 1.16%
Valero Energy stock news this week
Coverage of Valero Energy this week reads positive: 12 positive, 3 neutral and 2 negative headlines.
- Nykredit A S Acquires New Position in Valero Energy Corporation $VLODefense World, Sep 19
- Valero Energy Director Matthew J. Audette Awarded 372 Stock Units on September 17, 2026Kalkine Media, Sep 18
- New Valero (NYSE: VLO) director becomes an SEC-reporting insiderStock Titan, Sep 18
- The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Applied Materials, Philip Morris, Valero Energy, Crimson Wine and Global Self StorageYahoo Finance, Sep 18
- Valero Energy Corporation Elects Matt Audette to its Board of DirectorsBusiness Wire, Sep 18
- Valero Energy Corp. stock outperforms competitors on strong trading dayMarketWatch, Sep 17
Valero Energy peers
Valero Energy’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| MPCMarathon Petroleum | Distribution | 9.9% above |
| PSXPhillips 66 | Distribution | 22.5% above |
| DINOHF Sinclair | Distribution | 33.1% above |
| PBFPBF Energy | Neutral | 1.3% below |
| CVICVR Energy | Distribution | 68.3% above |
| CLMTCalumet | Distribution | 34.9% above |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Valero Energy stock FAQ
What is Valero Energy’s market cap?
Valero Energy’s market cap is $119.0B at the Sep 18, 2026 close of $413.28, with 287.9M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 16.8.
What is the Valero Energy stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Valero Energy is $355.47, −14.0% from the last close. Of the 16 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 9 rate it a buy, 7 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Valero Energy stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Valero Energy is overvalued: the Sep 18, 2026 close of $413.28 is 22.1% above Gekko Fair Value of $338.55. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Valero Energy report earnings next?
Valero Energy is expected to report on Oct 22, 2026 (32 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $18.52 per share on revenue of $39.53B. Valero Energy beat the earnings estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports, moving 2.8% on average across the report.
What is Valero Energy’s 52-week high and low?
Valero Energy’s 52-week high is $416.66 and its 52-week low is $155.29; it closed at $413.28 on Sep 18, 2026, +152.5% over the past year.
Is Valero Energy stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (trend and earnings risk), 1 as mixed (seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (gekkoindex and fair value). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
Prices and signals update after every US market close; the GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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