Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for VLO in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every VLO insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open VLO in Gekko
NYSE: VLO
Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Nov 4 close
$365.34−22.31 (−5.8%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryNov 4 closeValero Energy shares fell 8% in a single session on 4 November, erasing roughly $8 billion in market value, with sellers dominating throughout the day. The drop comes alongside news that Valero is acquiring LyondellBasell's former Houston refinery facility for $320.5 million, with plans to restart 165,000 barrels per day of processing capacity by the end of 2027, expanding its refining footprint on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Separately, Morgan Stanley maintained its Equal-Weight rating while raising its price target to $420 from $411.
VLO closed at $365.34, down 5.8%, with the close sitting between the 50-day average of $399.59 and the 200-day average of $288.62, pointing to a mixed trend picture. The GekkoIndex reads 64.3, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone. Price sits 4% below Gekko Fair Value of $380.51.
The next earnings date is 28 January 2027, 84 days out and beyond a typical 20-day holding window. Smart-money activity shows 3 unusual options signals over the last 30 days, with call premium of $5,567,830 against put premium of $5,666,675. Seasonality over the next 20 trading days has averaged -0.8% across 5 years, rising in 3 of them. The consensus among 17 analysts stands at 8 buy, 8 hold and 1 sell, with a consensus target of $426.89.
Written by AI from the Nov 4, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Valero Energy price vs fair value
Close $365.34200-day averageGekko Fair Value $380.51
Valero Energy quick facts
- Market cap
- $101.9B
- P/E ratio
- 8.7
- Forward P/E
- 8.3
- EPS, TTM
- $43.97
- Revenue, TTM
- $146.5B
- Profit margin
- 8.8%
- Dividend yield
- 1.18%
- Beta
- 0.55
- Volume
- 5.68M avg 2.96M
- 1-year return
- +112.9%
- Typical daily move
- ±5.5%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±7.6%
- 50-day average
- $399.59
- 200-day average
- $288.62
- Next earnings
- Jan 28
- Shares outstanding
- 278.9M
Valero Energy swing-trade checklist
Valero Energy scores 2 supportive, 3 mixed and 1 headwind across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
2 supportive3 mixed1 headwind
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $365.34 sits between the 50-day ($399.59) and 200-day ($288.62) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
64.3, Accumulation
Reading 64.3 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuemixed
4.0% below
Price is within 5% of Gekko Fair Value (4% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyheadwind
Leans bearish
Last 30 days: 3 unusual options signals.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 84 days
Next report Jan 28, 2027, 84 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitymixed
−0.8% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −0.8% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Valero Energy stock chart and price history
Valero Energy closed at $365.34 on Nov 4, 2026, +112.9% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $159.90 to $461.52.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −12.9%
- 3 months
- +20.6%
- 6 months
- +54.4%
- 1 year
- +112.9%
The full VLO chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open VLO in Gekko
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About Valero Energy
Valero Energy produces and sells fuels used in transportation along with petrochemical products, serving customers across North America, the United Kingdom, Ireland and other overseas markets. Its output ranges from different gasoline blends and diesel types to jet fuel, asphalt, lubricants and various chemical feedstocks, and the company is perhaps best known for the wide network of fuel stations carrying its own name plus brands like Beacon, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar and Texaco.
Operations are split into three areas: refining, ethanol production, and renewable diesel. The refining side supplies most of its fuel and chemical products and also handles lube oil and natural gas liquid sales, drawing on a group of large-scale refineries. The ethanol business runs multiple production plants that also generate feed-related by-products sold mainly to livestock markets. A separate facility turns waste fats and used cooking oil into renewable diesel. Products move to market through wholesale and retail channels backed by pipelines, storage terminals, docks and truck loading points.
The company began in 1980 under a different name before becoming Valero Energy Corporation in 1997. It is based in San Antonio, Texas, and trades on the NYSE under the ticker VLO.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy minerals
- Industry
- Oil refining/Marketing
- Website
- valero.com
Valero Energy GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Valero Energy’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 64.3, in the Accumulation zone, up 1.7 points over five sessions.
64.3Accumulation
Up 1.7 points over five sessions.
Reading for Nov 4, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 21 | +1.2% | +11.4% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 180 | +1.4% | +4.0% | ||
| Neutral | 406 | +0.9% | +3.4% | ||
| Distribution | 87 | +0.3% | +3.9% | ||
| Selling | 3 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average VLO share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.0% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the VLO price, zone by zone.Track VLO in Gekko
Is Valero Energy stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Valero Energy trades 4.0% below Gekko Fair Value of $380.51, so the shares are about fair value on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Valero Energy shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$380.51
Gekko Fair Value, Nov 4, 2026
4.0% below fair value · About fair value
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 10.3% above the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open VLO in Gekko
Valero Energy insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Valero Energy, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in VLO were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for VLO, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open VLO in Gekko
Buybacks
Valero Energy has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026
- $3.36B
- As a share of market cap
- 3.30%
- Trailing four quarters
- $7.26B
From company filings.
Unusual options activity last 30 days
3signals, 50% of the flagged premium in calls.
Latest: Bullish flow on Oct 29, $2.87M in unusual premium.
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium.Unlock in Gekko
Valero Energy earnings: next date and track record
Valero Energy reports on Jan 28, 2027 (84 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Jan 28, 2027
84 days away
- EPS estimate
- $19.66
- Revenue estimate
- $41.68B
8 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.2%average move across the report
2 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Oct 22, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Valero reported Q3 2026 net income of $6.8 billion ($23.89/share), up dramatically from $1.1 billion ($3.53/share) in Q3 2025. Refining segment operating income surged to $8.8 billion from $1.6 billion year-over-year, with throughput averaging 3 million barrels per day. Renewable Diesel swung to $353 million profit from a $28 million loss. Ethanol set a quarterly production record at 4.8 million gallons/day. The $230 million FCC optimization at St. Charles Refinery was completed on schedule.
- Guidance
- Management remains constructive on long-term outlook, citing low product inventories, limited excess refining capacity, and sustained transportation fuel demand. U.S. Gulf Coast operations benefit from domestic crude production advantages. Additional strategic capital opportunities are being evaluated with disciplined investment criteria.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | $23.90 est $21.17 | $46.10B est $42.71B | −4.0% |
| Jul 30, 2026 | $12.54 est $9.87 | $44.48B est $39.47B | +3.8% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | $4.22 est $3.16 | $32.38B est $31.38B | −1.8% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | $3.82 est $3.27 | $30.37B est $28.51B | −1.4% |
| Oct 23, 2025 | $3.66 est $3.05 | $32.17B est $29.96B | +5.7% |
| Jul 24, 2025 | $2.28 est $1.75 | $29.89B est $27.51B | −3.8% |
| Apr 24, 2025 | $0.89 est $0.41 | $30.26B est $28.76B | −0.5% |
| Jan 30, 2025 | $0.88 est $0.05 | $30.76B est $30.02B | −4.6% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Valero Energy stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Valero Energy is $426.89, +16.8% from the last close, from 17 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$426.89consensus 12-month target, +16.8% from the last close
Now $365.34Avg $426.89
Low $358High $530
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 17 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | Mizuho Securities | $436 | +19.3% |
| Nov 3 | Wells Fargo | $489 | +33.8% |
| Nov 2 | Barclays | $443 | +21.3% |
| Nov 2 | Morgan Stanley | $420 | +15.0% |
| Nov 2 | BMO Capital | $505 | +38.2% |
+4.0%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
−0.8%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±5.5%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Valero Energy seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Nov 4, Valero Energy averaged −0.8% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +3.1% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +4.2% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +0.8% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | −0.8% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | −4.0% | 1 of 5 |
For scale, VLO’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 7.6%.
Valero Energy market cap and key statistics
Valero Energy’s market cap is $101.9B, with a P/E ratio of 8.7 and revenue of $146.5B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $101.9B
- P/E ratio
- 8.7
- Forward P/E
- 8.3
- EPS, TTM
- $43.97
- Gekko Fair Value
- $380.51
Trading
- Volume
- 5.68M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 2.96M
- 52-week high
- $461.52
- 52-week low
- $159.90
- Shares outstanding
- 278.9M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $146.5B
- Profit margin
- 8.8%
- Return on equity
- 46.9%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +577.0%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.55
- Typical daily move
- ±5.5%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±7.6%
- Dividend yield
- 1.18%
Valero Energy stock news this week
Coverage of Valero Energy this week reads positive: 7 positive, 2 neutral and 1 negative headlines.
- Valero Energy (VLO) Drops 8% in a Single Session, Erasing Roughly $8 Billion24/7 Wall St., Nov 4
- Valero's $320.5M Houston Refinery Deal: A Growth Catalyst for VLO?The Globe and Mail, Nov 4
- 8,435 Valero Energy Corporation $VLO Shares Sold by Carmel Capital Management L.L.C.MarketBeat, Nov 4
- VLO Stock Price Prediction 2026-2027 | Valero Energy Forecast24/7 Wall St., Nov 3
- Valero to Acquire Houston Refining Site, Plans 165,000 BPD RestartTradingView, Nov 3
- Morgan Stanley maintains Valero Energy at Equal-Weight, raises price target to $420 from $411TradingView, Nov 2
Valero Energy peers
Valero Energy’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| MPCMarathon Petroleum | Accumulation | 10.6% below |
| PSXPhillips 66 | Accumulation | 4.9% above |
| DINOHF Sinclair | Accumulation | 5.8% above |
| PBFPBF Energy | Neutral | 14.5% below |
| CVICVR Energy | Buying | 5.1% above |
| DKDelek US | Accumulation | 16.6% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Valero Energy stock FAQ
What is Valero Energy’s market cap?
Valero Energy’s market cap is $101.9B at the Nov 4, 2026 close of $365.34, with 278.9M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 8.7.
What is the Valero Energy stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Valero Energy is $426.89, +16.8% from the last close. Of the 17 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 8 rate it a buy, 8 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Valero Energy stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Valero Energy is about fair value: the Nov 4, 2026 close of $365.34 is 4.0% below Gekko Fair Value of $380.51. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Valero Energy report earnings next?
Valero Energy is expected to report on Jan 28, 2027 (84 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $19.66 per share on revenue of $41.68B. Valero Energy beat the earnings estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports, moving 3.2% on average across the report.
What is Valero Energy’s 52-week high and low?
Valero Energy’s 52-week high is $461.52 and its 52-week low is $159.90; it closed at $365.34 on Nov 4, 2026, +112.9% over the past year.
Is Valero Energy stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex and earnings risk), 3 as mixed (trend, fair value and seasonality) and 1 as a headwind (smart money). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
Is there unusual options activity in Valero Energy?
Gekko flagged 3 unusual options signals in Valero Energy over the last 30 days, with $5.57M of flagged premium in calls and $5.67M in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Oct 29, 2026 with $2.87M in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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