NYSE: PBF

PBF Energy (PBF) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$74.39+0.70 (+0.9%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

PBF Energy's week centers on refining sector commentary and an upcoming earnings date, with the company confirming it will release third quarter 2026 results on 29 October. Several pieces frame PBF alongside peers such as Valero, Neste and Par Pacific, pointing to its refining scale, cost-efficiency efforts and lower capex as differentiators, while high oil prices and market volatility are cited as backdrop for low-beta names with positive momentum. A separate note recaps that PBF priced $500 million in exchangeable notes due 2032, raising approximately $485 million to repay existing 2030 notes and fund capped call hedging activity.

The stock closed at $74.39, up 0.9%, sitting above both its 50-day average of $70.50 and 200-day average of $47.29, with the shorter average also above the longer one, consistent with an established uptrend. Momentum over the past month, three months and six months shows gains of 8.5%, 60.2% and 45.2% respectively, and the one-year return stands at 121.7%. The GekkoIndex reads 56.2, placing PBF in the Neutral zone, while price sits 3.4% below the Gekko Fair Value estimate of $77.02.

Over the next 20 trading days, the earnings date of 29 October falls just outside that window, at 30 days away. Options activity shows 1 unusual signal in the last 30 days, with put premium of $2,193,980 against call premium of $184,500. Analyst coverage from 11 firms splits 1 buy, 7 hold and 3 sell, with a consensus target of $72.54, implying -2.5% versus current price. Seasonality over 5 years shows the next 20 trading days averaging a 9.4% gain, rising in 4 of those years.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

PBF Energy price vs fair value

$77.02$74.39Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $74.39200-day averageGekko Fair Value $77.02

PBF Energy quick facts

Market cap
$8.82B
P/E ratio
6.2
Forward P/E
8.4
EPS, TTM
$11.64
Revenue, TTM
$34.37B
Profit margin
3.9%
Dividend yield
1.56%
Beta
0.08
Volume
2.46M avg 3.95M
1-year return
+121.7%
Typical daily move
±6.5%
Typical 20-day move
±11.6%
50-day average
$70.50
200-day average
$47.29
Next earnings
Oct 29 before open
Shares outstanding
118.5M
52-week range
$25.62$82.61

PBF Energy swing-trade checklist

PBF Energy scores 3 supportive, 2 mixed and 1 headwind across the 6 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive2 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendsupportive

    Above 50 and 200-day

    Close $74.39 is above the 50-day ($70.50) and 200-day ($47.29) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexmixed

    56.2, Neutral

    Reading 56.2 is in the Neutral zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuemixed

    3.4% below

    Price is within 5% of Gekko Fair Value (3.4% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyheadwind

    Leans bearish

    Last 30 days: 1 unusual options signal.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 30 days

    Next report Oct 29, 2026, 30 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +9.4% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +9.4% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

PBF Energy stock chart and price history

PBF Energy closed at $74.39 on Sep 28, 2026, +121.7% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $25.62 to $82.61.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
PBF Energy share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$40$60$80NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep74.39

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
+8.5%
3 months
+60.2%
6 months
+45.2%
1 year
+121.7%
The full PBF chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open PBF in Gekko

Follow PBF Energy through every session

Put PBF on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

Track PBF in GekkoFree for 7 days. No credit card required.

About PBF Energy

PBF Energy processes crude oil into a wide range of fuels and related products, including gasoline, diesel, heating oil, jet fuel, lubricants, petrochemicals and asphalt. It also supplies unbranded transportation fuels and feedstocks used in blending. The company is perhaps most recognized for running a network of refineries that feed these products into regional markets across the country.

The business runs through two main areas: refining, which turns crude into finished fuels, and logistics, which moves and stores them using rail cars, trucks, marine terminals and pipelines. Its refined products reach customers in the Northeast, Midwest, Gulf Coast and West Coast of the United States, with additional sales extending into other parts of the country as well as Canada and Mexico. As of the end of 2021 it owned and ran six refineries along with the supporting infrastructure needed to move that output to market.

PBF Energy was founded in 2008 and operates out of Parsippany, New Jersey. Its shares trade on the NYSE under the ticker PBF.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Energy minerals
Industry
Oil refining/Marketing
Website
pbfenergy.com

PBF Energy GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

PBF Energy’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 56.2, in the Neutral zone, down 0.7 points over five sessions.

010056.2Neutral

Down 0.7 points over five sessions.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying74+0.8%+1.7%+4.0%0.0%
Accumulation209−0.2%+0.9%+3.1%+5.4%
Neutral (current zone)335+1.3%+1.5%+2.5%+8.8%
Distribution47+0.3%+2.3%+3.2%+9.2%
Selling7Too few readings yet

Average PBF share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the PBF price, zone by zone.Track PBF in Gekko

Is PBF Energy stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

PBF Energy trades 3.4% below Gekko Fair Value of $77.02, so the shares are about fair value on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what PBF Energy shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$77.02

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026

3.4% below fair value · About fair value

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open PBF in Gekko

PBF Energy insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for PBF Energy, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for PBF in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every PBF insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open PBF in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in PBF were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for PBF, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open PBF in Gekko

Buybacks

PBF Energy has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Dec 31, 2024
$29.00M
As a share of market cap
0.33%
Trailing four quarters
$329.1M

From company filings.

Unusual options activity last 30 days

1signal, 8% of the flagged premium in calls.

Latest: Bearish flow on Sep 19, $2.38M in unusual premium.

Every signal with its contract, strike and premium.Unlock in Gekko

PBF Energy earnings: next date and track record

PBF Energy reports on Oct 29, 2026, before the open (30 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.

6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±5.9%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−2.6%Oct ’24−12.8%Feb ’25+2.0%May ’25−12.0%Jul ’25+0.2%Oct ’25−3.4%Feb ’26−0.3%Apr ’26+14.1%Jul ’26

Last earnings call, Jul 30, 2026 AI summary

What they said
PBF Energy reported a strong Q2 2026, reducing net debt by over $1.4 billion and ending the quarter with ~$900 million in cash, expected to reach ~$1.5 billion by end of July. Middle East and Eastern Europe conflicts have trapped ~15M barrels/day of crude and ~5M barrels/day of products, driving global refining utilization down ~10% YoY. PBF views its crude slate flexibility and Americas proximity as competitive advantages in the current dislocated market.
Guidance
Management expects product inventories to rebuild slowly, maintaining elevated refining margins over coming quarters. Crude markets are expected to normalize faster than product markets post-conflict. PBF anticipates a favorable crude cost environment and continued strong cash generation.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Jul 30, 2026$6.22
est $4.05
+53.6%$11.68B
est $9.61B
+21.6%+14.1%
Apr 30, 2026−$0.88
est −$0.90
+2.2%$7.90B
est $7.32B
+7.9%−0.3%
Feb 12, 2026$0.49
est −$0.15
+426.7%$7.14B
est $7.11B
+0.4%−3.4%
Oct 30, 2025−$0.52
est −$0.69
+24.6%$7.65B
est $7.27B
+5.3%+0.2%
Jul 31, 2025−$1.03
est −$1.19
+13.4%$7.48B
est $7.30B
+2.4%−12.0%
May 1, 2025−$3.09
est −$3.50
+11.7%$7.07B
est $7.24B
−2.5%+2.0%
Feb 13, 2025−$2.82
est −$2.78
−1.4%$7.35B
est $7.53B
−2.3%−12.8%
Oct 31, 2024−$2.48
est −$1.27
−95.3%$8.38B
est $7.90B
+6.1%−2.6%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

PBF Energy stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for PBF Energy is $72.54, −2.5% from the last close, from 11 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$72.54consensus 12-month target, −2.5% from the last close
Low $50High $84
Buy1
Hold7
Sell3

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 11 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 14Morgan StanleySell, reiterated$76+2.2%
Sep 10Bank of America SecuritiesSell, maintained$60−19.3%
Aug 18Goldman SachsHold, reiterated$81+8.9%
Aug 18Goldman SachsHold, maintained$81+8.9%
Aug 4J.P. MorganHold, maintained$83+11.6%
+2.5%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+9.4%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±6.5%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

PBF Energy seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, PBF Energy averaged +9.4% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+15.7%2021+34.6%2022−13.9%2023+2.1%2024+8.0%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+2.9%4 of 5
Next 10 trading days+5.3%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days+8.6%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days+9.4%4 of 5
Next 30 trading days+12.5%3 of 5

For scale, PBF’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 11.6%.

PBF Energy market cap and key statistics

PBF Energy’s market cap is $8.82B, with a P/E ratio of 6.2 and revenue of $34.37B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$8.82B
P/E ratio
6.2
Forward P/E
8.4
EPS, TTM
$11.64
Gekko Fair Value
$77.02

Trading

Volume
2.46M
Avg volume, 20 days
3.95M
52-week high
$82.61
52-week low
$25.62
Shares outstanding
118.5M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$34.37B
Profit margin
3.9%
Return on equity
23.2%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−69.9%

Risk and income

Beta
0.08
Typical daily move
±6.5%
Typical 20-day move
±11.6%
Dividend yield
1.56%

PBF Energy stock news this week

6 headlines about PBF Energy from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.

PBF Energy peers

PBF Energy’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
MPCMarathon Petroleum−1.7%Neutral1.3% above
VLOValero Energy+0.1%Neutral15.3% above
PSXPhillips 66−1.4%Neutral14.4% above
DINOHF Sinclair−0.9%Neutral22.3% above
CVICVR Energy−2.4%Neutral57.8% above
IEPIcahn Enterprises−1.3%Accumulation26.4% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

PBF Energy stock FAQ

What is PBF Energy’s market cap?

PBF Energy’s market cap is $8.82B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $74.39, with 118.5M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 6.2.

What is the PBF Energy stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for PBF Energy is $72.54, −2.5% from the last close. Of the 11 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 1 rate it a buy, 7 a hold and 3 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is PBF Energy stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate PBF Energy is about fair value: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $74.39 is 3.4% below Gekko Fair Value of $77.02. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does PBF Energy report earnings next?

PBF Energy is expected to report on Oct 29, 2026, before the market opens (30 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $9.53 per share on revenue of $9.70B. PBF Energy beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 5.9% on average across the report.

What is PBF Energy’s 52-week high and low?

PBF Energy’s 52-week high is $82.61 and its 52-week low is $25.62; it closed at $74.39 on Sep 28, 2026, +121.7% over the past year.

Is PBF Energy stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (trend, earnings risk and seasonality), 2 as mixed (gekkoindex and fair value) and 1 as a headwind (smart money). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

Is there unusual options activity in PBF Energy?

Gekko flagged 1 unusual options signal in PBF Energy over the last 30 days, with $185K of flagged premium in calls and $2.19M in puts. The latest, bearish flow, was on Sep 19, 2026 with $2.38M in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

See PBF Energy the way Gekko members do

Every GekkoIndex reading, insider trade, options bet and Congress disclosure plotted on the chart, plus the 5,800-name screener and trade planning tools.

Join 1,380 other traders using Gekko

Start Your FREE 7 Day Trial → Every feature unlocked. No credit card required.