NYSE: PSX

Phillips 66 (PSX) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Phillips 66. Energy minerals sector, oil refining/marketing industry. Market cap $109.5B.

$273.13−1.08 (−0.4%)

Close on Sep 18, 2026. Page updated Sep 19, 9:16 pm ET.

Gekko Brief

AI summary

Phillips 66 closes at $273.13, down 0.4% on the day, holding above both its 50-day average of $229.75 and its 200-day average of $178.16. The GekkoIndex reads 41.9, placing the stock in the Distribution zone, down 5.5 points over the last five sessions. Price sits 22.5% above Gekko Fair Value of $223.03, a gap the checklist flags as a headwind despite the constructive trend.

This week's coverage centers on continued strength in the shares, with mentions of an all-time high near $265.47 and commentary describing resilient refining margins alongside stable midstream cash flows. A new institutional position was disclosed, with Nykredit A S reporting a $28.91 million stake built during the second quarter. Phillips 66 also confirmed it will host a webcast on 28 October 2026 to discuss third-quarter results, following a second-quarter report in which adjusted earnings reached $3.8 billion against segment strength in Midstream, Refining and Chemicals.

The next earnings date falls on 28 October 2026, 38 days out and outside a typical 20-trading-day hold. Analyst coverage from 15 firms shows 9 buy and 6 hold ratings, with a consensus target of $251.95, about 7.8% below the current price. Seasonality over the next 20 trading days has averaged a 7.7% gain across 5 years, rising in 3 of them. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the current windows, though one billionaire holder and one trailblazer holder are on record.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 20, 2026 from the data above.

Price vs fair value

Close $273.13200-day averageGekko Fair Value $223.03

Key stats

Market cap
$109.5B
P/E ratio
15.7
Forward P/E
14.1
EPS, TTM
$17.52
Revenue, TTM
$152.2B
Profit margin
4.7%
Dividend yield
1.87%
Beta
0.70
Volume
10.11M avg 3.03M
1-year return
+105.1%
Typical daily move
±2.9%
Typical 20-day move
±6.5%
50-day average
$229.75
200-day average
$178.16
Next earnings
Oct 28
Shares outstanding
400.9M
52-week range
$126.74$277.12

Phillips 66 swing-trade checklist

Phillips 66 scores 3 supportive, 0 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive0 mixed2 headwinds

  • Trendsupportive

    Above 50 and 200-day

    Close $273.13 is above the 50-day ($229.75) and 200-day ($178.16) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexheadwind

    41.9, Distribution

    Reading 41.9 is in the Distribution zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valueheadwind

    22.5% above

    Price is 22.5% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 38 days

    Next report Oct 28, 2026, 38 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +7.7% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +7.7% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Phillips 66 stock chart and price history

Phillips 66 closed at $273.13 on Sep 18, 2026, +105.1% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $126.74 to $277.12.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
+12.7%
3 months
+64.4%
6 months
+53.2%
1 year
+105.1%
The full PSX chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open PSX in Gekko

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About Phillips 66

Phillips 66 works across the energy supply chain, covering manufacturing and logistics rather than a single stage of production. It is best known for turning crude oil and other feedstocks into everyday fuels such as gasoline, distillates, aviation fuel and renewable fuels, produced at a group of refineries spread across the United States and Europe.

The company organizes its work into four segments. Midstream handles the movement, storage and processing of crude oil, refined products and natural gas liquids, along with related fractionation, export and marketing activity, plus gathering and transporting natural gas. Chemicals makes olefins, aromatics, styrenics and specialty chemicals, including solvents, catalysts and compounds used in drilling and mining. Refining converts raw feedstocks into fuel products, while Marketing & Specialties buys, resells and markets refined fuels and also produces base oils and lubricants, with customers mainly in the United States and Europe.

Phillips 66 traces its founding to 1875 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker PSX.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Energy minerals
Industry
Oil refining/Marketing
Website
phillips66.com

Phillips 66 GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Phillips 66’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 41.9, in the Distribution zone, down 5.5 points over five sessions.

010041.9Distribution

Down 5.5 points over five sessions, from the Neutral zone.

Reading for Sep 18, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying30+1.9%+4.8%+8.4%+11.4%
Accumulation173+1.0%+2.7%+4.6%+6.5%
Neutral401+0.5%+0.5%+0.5%+2.6%
Distribution (current zone)530.0%−0.3%+4.2%+4.4%
Selling5Too few readings yet

Average PSX share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Distribution readings averaged +1.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Distribution zone: Institutions potentially offloading. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the PSX price, zone by zone.Track PSX in Gekko

Is Phillips 66 stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Phillips 66 trades 22.5% above Gekko Fair Value of $223.03, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Phillips 66 shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$223.03

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 19, 2026

22.5% Overvalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open PSX in Gekko

Phillips 66 insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Phillips 66, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for PSX in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every PSX insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open PSX in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in PSX were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for PSX, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open PSX in Gekko

Buybacks

Phillips 66 has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$379.0M
As a share of market cap
0.35%
Trailing four quarters
$1.19B

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

2of the funds Gekko tracks hold PSX.

1added1opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

Phillips 66 earnings: next date and track record

Phillips 66 reports on Oct 28, 2026 (38 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.

6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.4%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−5.3%Oct ’24−2.5%Jan ’25+1.0%Apr ’25+2.7%Jul ’25+2.6%Oct ’25+4.3%Feb ’26+8.5%Apr ’26−0.2%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 5, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Phillips 66 reported Q2 2026 adjusted earnings of $3.8 billion, driven by strong operational performance across Midstream, Refining, and Chemicals segments. Refining captured 98% of market indicator with industry-leading utilization. Midstream achieved record LPG export volumes and over 1 million barrels/day fractionation capacity. Renewables ran above nameplate capacity despite regulatory uncertainty around renewable credits.
Guidance
Management expects net debt below $16 billion by year-end 2026, ahead of the 2027 $17 billion target. Share repurchases are expected to increase in H2 2026, with commitment to return greater than 50% of net operating cash flow to shareholders.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 5, 2026$9.41
est $7.50
+25.5%$51.93B
est $43.60B
+19.1%−0.2%
Apr 29, 2026$0.49
est $2.07
−76.3%$33.00B
est $35.86B
−8.0%+8.5%
Feb 4, 2026$2.47
est $2.12
+16.5%$36.33B
est $33.86B
+7.3%+4.3%
Oct 29, 2025$2.52
est $2.14
+17.8%$34.98B
est $33.54B
+4.3%+2.6%
Jul 25, 2025$2.38
est $1.72
+38.4%$33.32B
est $33.28B
+0.1%+2.7%
Apr 25, 2025−$0.90
est −$0.72
−24.5%$30.43B
est $31.70B
−4.0%+1.0%
Jan 31, 2025−$0.15
est −$0.23
+34.8%$33.69B
est $34.32B
−1.9%−2.5%
Oct 29, 2024$2.04
est $1.66
+22.9%$35.53B
est $36.99B
−4.0%−5.3%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Phillips 66 stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Phillips 66 is $251.95, −7.8% from the last close, from 15 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$251.95consensus 12-month target, −7.8% from the last close
Low $207High $335
Buy9
Hold6
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 15 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 17BMO CapitalBuy, reiterated$310+13.5%
Sep 14Morgan StanleyBuy, reiterated$284+4.0%
Sep 14Raymond JamesBuy, maintained$300+9.8%
Sep 14UBSBuy, maintained$300+9.8%
Sep 10Bank of America SecuritiesHold, maintained$265−3.0%
+4.2%average 20-day move after past Distribution readings
+7.7%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.9%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Phillips 66 seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 19, Phillips 66 averaged +7.7% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+25.8%2021+16.5%2022−5.2%2023+0.6%2024−0.3%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+1.5%2 of 5
Next 10 trading days+4.6%4 of 5
Next 15 trading days+6.7%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days+7.7%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days+8.5%3 of 5

For scale, PSX’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 6.5%.

Phillips 66 market cap and key statistics

Phillips 66’s market cap is $109.5B, with a P/E ratio of 15.7 and revenue of $152.2B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$109.5B
P/E ratio
15.7
Forward P/E
14.1
EPS, TTM
$17.52
Gekko Fair Value
$223.03

Trading

Volume
10.11M
Avg volume, 20 days
3.03M
52-week high
$277.12
52-week low
$126.74
Shares outstanding
400.9M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$152.2B
Profit margin
4.7%
Return on equity
23.4%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+344.9%

Risk and income

Beta
0.70
Typical daily move
±2.9%
Typical 20-day move
±6.5%
Dividend yield
1.87%

Phillips 66 stock news this week

Coverage of Phillips 66 this week reads positive: 9 positive, 0 neutral and 1 negative headlines.

News sentiment positive

Phillips 66 peers

Phillips 66’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
MPCMarathon Petroleum+1.1%Distribution9.9% above
VLOValero Energy+0.3%Distribution22.1% above
DINOHF Sinclair0.0%Distribution33.1% above
PBFPBF Energy+0.8%Neutral1.3% below
CVICVR Energy−0.8%Distribution68.3% above
CLMTCalumet−1.1%Distribution34.9% above

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Phillips 66 stock FAQ

What is Phillips 66’s market cap?

Phillips 66’s market cap is $109.5B at the Sep 18, 2026 close of $273.13, with 400.9M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 15.7.

What is the Phillips 66 stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Phillips 66 is $251.95, −7.8% from the last close. Of the 15 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 9 rate it a buy, 6 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Phillips 66 stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Phillips 66 is overvalued: the Sep 18, 2026 close of $273.13 is 22.5% above Gekko Fair Value of $223.03. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Phillips 66 report earnings next?

Phillips 66 is expected to report on Oct 28, 2026 (38 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $10.61 per share on revenue of $41.57B. Phillips 66 beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 3.4% on average across the report.

What is Phillips 66’s 52-week high and low?

Phillips 66’s 52-week high is $277.12 and its 52-week low is $126.74; it closed at $273.13 on Sep 18, 2026, +105.1% over the past year.

Is Phillips 66 stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (trend, earnings risk and seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (gekkoindex and fair value). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

Prices and signals update after every US market close; the GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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