Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for PARR in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every PARR insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open PARR in Gekko
NYSE: PARR
Par Pacific (PARR) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$83.12+1.23 (+1.5%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closePar Pacific touched a new 52-week high of $88.34 on 7 October before Mizuho downgraded the stock from outperform to neutral, setting a $91 price target, citing that the refiner rally has already priced in most gains; the same note also cut Phillips 66 and Delek US Holdings. Shares fell 5.8% on the downgrade news. The company also confirmed it will report third-quarter 2026 results after the close on 3 November, and separately disclosed insider Form 4 filings and a restricted stock unit grant to director Robert S. Silberman.
PARR closed at $83.12, up 1.5%, sitting above both its 50-day average of $80.02 and 200-day average of $61.05, with the 50-day above the 200-day. The GekkoIndex reads 56.6, placing the stock in the Neutral zone. Price remains 32.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $123.29.
Earnings arrive on 3 November, 21 days out and inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window, with the prior quarter's EPS of $10.10 beating an $8.20 estimate and triggering a -15.6% reaction. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the respective 90-day and 30-day windows. Seasonality from this point in the calendar has averaged a 9.3% move over the next 20 trading days across 5 years, rising in 3 of them. Analyst consensus target sits at $86.71, with 3 buy and 1 hold rating among 4 firms.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Par Pacific price vs fair value
Close $83.12200-day averageGekko Fair Value $123.29
Par Pacific quick facts
- Market cap
- $4.17B
- P/E ratio
- 4.8
- Forward P/E
- 10.5
- EPS, TTM
- $17.13
- Revenue, TTM
- $8.62B
- Profit margin
- 9.9%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 0.75
- Volume
- 699,420 avg 944,718
- 1-year return
- +129.7%
- Typical daily move
- ±5.4%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±10.5%
- 50-day average
- $80.02
- 200-day average
- $61.05
- Next earnings
- Nov 3
- Shares outstanding
- 50.10M
Par Pacific swing-trade checklist
Par Pacific scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind
- Trendsupportive
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $83.12 is above the 50-day ($80.02) and 200-day ($61.05) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
56.6, Neutral
Reading 56.6 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
32.6% below
Price is 32.6% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 22 days
Reports on Nov 3, 2026, 22 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+9.3% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +9.3% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Par Pacific stock chart and price history
Par Pacific closed at $83.12 on Oct 12, 2026, +129.7% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $33.21 to $89.45.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −1.8%
- 3 months
- +13.0%
- 6 months
- +26.3%
- 1 year
- +129.7%
The full PARR chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open PARR in Gekko
Follow Par Pacific through every session
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Par Pacific GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Par Pacific’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 56.6, in the Neutral zone, up 5.1 points over five sessions.
56.6Neutral
Up 5.1 points over five sessions.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 56 | +2.4% | +3.3% | ||
| Accumulation | 220 | −0.7% | +1.0% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 338 | +1.2% | +5.1% | ||
| Distribution | 67 | +4.2% | +7.9% | ||
| Selling | 1 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average PARR share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the PARR price, zone by zone.Track PARR in Gekko
Is Par Pacific stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Par Pacific trades 32.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $123.29, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Par Pacific shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$123.29
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
32.6% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 39.2% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open PARR in Gekko
Par Pacific insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Par Pacific, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in PARR were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for PARR, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open PARR in Gekko
Buybacks
Par Pacific has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $359K
- As a share of market cap
- 0.01%
- Trailing four quarters
- $81.07M
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
0of the funds Gekko tracks hold PARR.
0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Par Pacific earnings: next date and track record
Par Pacific reports on Nov 3, 2026 (22 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 3, 2026
22 days away
- EPS estimate
- $6.89
- Revenue estimate
- $2.13B
4 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±9.1%average move across the report
1 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 4, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Par Pacific reported a strong second quarter driven by exceptionally favorable market conditions and solid operational execution. Second quarter adjusted EBITDA was $571 million and adjusted net income was $499 million ($10.10 per share); Refining contributed $552 million of adjusted EBITDA, a sharp increase from $69 million in Q1. System-wide refining capture was reported at 125% (112% normalized), with a combined refining index averaging approximately $33/barrel. Operations highlights included record quarterly production in Tacoma (41,200 bpd, 98.1% utilization), record monthly throughput in Montana (~62,000 bpd with OpEx per barrel of $7.56), and steady ramp of renewable diesel in Hawaii (June ~3,000 bpd) ahead of a planned turnaround that began in late June and is now substantially complete. Retail same-store fuel volumes declined 0.8% while in-store sales rose 1%. Logistics EBITDA was $30 million and Retail EBITDA $17 million. Management emphasized disciplined capital allocation, ongoing small-scale growth projects, and strategic flexibility (M&A, buybacks, or organic investment).
- Guidance
- Third-quarter Hawaii conventional throughput expected between 59,000 and 65,000 bpd; renewable throughput expected between 1,500 and 2,000 bpd. Management expects Q3 capture to come in below the firm's typical normalized guidance range of 100%–110% due to the Hawaii turnaround and cost timing (imported barrels costed in Q3). Most turnaround expenditures are capitalized (only marginal OpEx increase expected). NOL balance (~$700M at start of year) expected to be largely utilized in 2026; company likely to transition to a typical federal tax position in 2027 if current margins persist. Mainland RVO exposure ~140M RINs; a full small refinery exemption across 3 refineries at current RIN prices would be ~ $300M (partial exemption roughly half).
- Risks flagged
- Significant market volatility in crude and refined product markets driven by geopolitical events (Middle East conflict) and protectionist policies; uncertainty in China refined product export behavior; execution and timing risk from Hawaii plant-wide turnaround (throughput and capture impacts, inventory timing and price lag effects); regulatory uncertainty and timing around small refinery exemptions (EPA) and RIN outcomes; exposure to inventory price movements (FIFO and price lag impacts) and potential tax/timing headwinds as NOLs are utilized.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | $10.10 est $8.20 | $2.97B est $2.40B | −15.6% |
| May 5, 2026 | $0.78 est $0.69 | $1.82B est $1.78B | −7.5% |
| Feb 24, 2026 | $1.17 est $1.21 | $1.81B est $1.68B | −5.4% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $5.95 est $1.98 | $2.01B est $1.68B | −8.7% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | $1.54 est $0.74 | $1.89B est $1.69B | −11.3% |
| May 6, 2025 | −$0.94 est −$0.06 | $1.75B est $1.48B | +10.9% |
| Feb 25, 2025 | −$0.79 est $0.14 | $1.83B est $1.68B | −10.5% |
| Nov 4, 2024 | −$0.10 est −$0.06 | $2.14B est $1.78B | −3.2% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Par Pacific stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Par Pacific is $86.71, +4.3% from the last close, from 4 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$86.71consensus 12-month target, +4.3% from the last close
Now $83.12Avg $86.71
Low $90High $104
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 4 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | Mizuho Securities | $91 | +9.5% |
| Oct 1 | TD Cowen | $90 | +8.3% |
| Sep 14 | Raymond James | $104 | +25.1% |
| Aug 11 | Mizuho Securities | $85 | +2.3% |
| Aug 7 | TD Cowen | $95 | +14.3% |
+5.1%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+9.3%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±5.4%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Par Pacific seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Par Pacific averaged +9.3% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +2.9% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +9.2% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +7.4% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +9.3% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +9.9% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, PARR’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 10.5%.
Par Pacific market cap and key statistics
Par Pacific’s market cap is $4.17B, with a P/E ratio of 4.8 and revenue of $8.62B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $4.17B
- P/E ratio
- 4.8
- Forward P/E
- 10.5
- EPS, TTM
- $17.13
- Gekko Fair Value
- $123.29
Trading
- Volume
- 699,420
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 944,718
- 52-week high
- $89.45
- 52-week low
- $33.21
- Shares outstanding
- 50.10M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $8.62B
- Profit margin
- 9.9%
- Return on equity
- 53.5%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +699.0%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.75
- Typical daily move
- ±5.4%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±10.5%
Par Pacific stock news this week
Coverage of Par Pacific this week reads neutral: 3 positive, 7 neutral and 3 negative headlines.
- Par Pacific Announces Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call ScheduleGlobeNewsWire, Oct 12
- Form 4 Par Pacific Holdings Inc For: 11 October By Investing.comInvesting.com South Africa, Oct 11
- Par Pacific (NYSE:PARR) Shares Down 5.8% After Analyst DowngradeMarketBeat, Oct 9
- Par Pacific (NYSE:PARR) Stock Rating Lowered by MizuhoMarketBeat, Oct 9
- Mizuho cuts Phillips 66, Delek, Par Pacific as refiner rally prices in gainsYahoo Finance, Oct 8
- After a 314-share grant, Par Pacific (PARR) director Hatcher holds 40,729 shares directly.Stock Titan, Oct 7
Par Pacific peers
Par Pacific’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| MPCMarathon Petroleum | Neutral | 17.6% above |
| VLOValero Energy | Neutral | 24.4% above |
| PSXPhillips 66 | Neutral | 24.7% above |
| DINOHF Sinclair | Distribution | 38.0% above |
| PBFPBF Energy | Neutral | 7.2% above |
| CVICVR Energy | Neutral | 68.7% above |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Par Pacific stock FAQ
What is Par Pacific’s market cap?
Par Pacific’s market cap is $4.17B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $83.12, with 50.10M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 4.8.
What is the Par Pacific stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Par Pacific is $86.71, +4.3% from the last close. Of the 4 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 3 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Par Pacific stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Par Pacific is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $83.12 is 32.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $123.29. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Par Pacific report earnings next?
Par Pacific is expected to report on Nov 3, 2026 (22 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $6.89 per share on revenue of $2.13B. Par Pacific beat the earnings estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports, moving 9.1% on average across the report.
What is Par Pacific’s 52-week high and low?
Par Pacific’s 52-week high is $89.45 and its 52-week low is $33.21; it closed at $83.12 on Oct 12, 2026, +129.7% over the past year.
Is Par Pacific stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (trend, fair value and seasonality), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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