NASDAQ: DRVN

Driven Brands (DRVN) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Oct 12 close

$11.78+0.06 (+0.5%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryOct 12 close

This week's news for Driven Brands centers on its Q2 2026 results and the activist pressure that followed. The company reported revenue up 7% to $507 million (also cited as $507.4 million), adjusted EBITDA of $107 million, and system-wide sales growth of 5% to $1.6 billion, while guidance for full-year adjusted EBITDA is expected to land at the lower end amid consumer pressure, oil costs and restatement expenses. Alongside this, Driven Brands launched a $100 million share buyback, ADW Capital Management disclosed a 4.8% stake and urged a public sale process after the board rejected its $18 per share offer, Kuehn Law opened an investigation into alleged fiduciary breaches, and BofA downgraded the stock to Underperform with a $12.00 price target.

Shares closed at $11.78, down 0.5% on the day, sitting below both the 50-day average of $12.60 and the 200-day average of $13.52, with the 50-day below the 200-day. The GekkoIndex reads 63.8, in the Accumulation zone. Price sits 16% below Gekko Fair Value of $14.03.

The next 20 trading days bring the Q3 2026 earnings report on 3 November, with analysts anticipating $0.2845 per share on revenue of $516.18 million, a year-over-year decline in both metrics. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in their respective windows. Seasonally, this calendar stretch has averaged a 20-day return of 4.5% over five years, rising in 3 of them, a pattern worth noting alongside the earnings timing.

Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

Driven Brands price vs fair value

$14.03$11.78Oct ’25Apr ’26Oct ’26
Close $11.78200-day averageGekko Fair Value $14.03

Driven Brands quick facts

Market cap
$1.94B
P/E ratio
11.9
Forward P/E
8.6
EPS, TTM
$0.99
Revenue, TTM
$1.93B
Profit margin
8.6%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
0.96
Volume
617,852 avg 1.07M
1-year return
−17.8%
Typical daily move
±2.9%
Typical 20-day move
±6%
50-day average
$12.60
200-day average
$13.52
Next earnings
Nov 3 before open
Shares outstanding
165.0M
52-week range
$9.80$17.30

Driven Brands swing-trade checklist

Driven Brands scores 3 supportive, 0 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive0 mixed2 headwinds

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $11.78 is below the 50-day ($12.60) and 200-day ($13.52) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    63.8, Accumulation

    Reading 63.8 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    16.0% below

    Price is 16% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 22 days

    Reports on Nov 3, 2026, 22 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +4.5% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +4.5% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Driven Brands stock chart and price history

Driven Brands closed at $11.78 on Oct 12, 2026, −17.8% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $9.80 to $17.30.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Driven Brands share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$10$14$16NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct11.78

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−3.0%
3 months
−23.9%
6 months
−8.0%
1 year
−17.8%
The full DRVN chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open DRVN in Gekko

Follow Driven Brands through every session

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About Driven Brands

Driven Brands provides automotive services to everyday drivers and commercial clients throughout the United States, Canada, and other international markets. Its work spans paint and collision repair, glass replacement, general maintenance and mechanical fixes, car washing, and oil changes, delivered under a collection of well-known names such as Take 5 Oil Change, CARSTAR, ABRA, Fix Auto, Maaco, Meineke, and 1-800-Radiator & A/C, among others.

Beyond running service locations, the company distributes automotive parts and consumables, including radiators, air conditioning components, exhaust systems, windshields, oil filters, and wiper blades, supplying repair shops, parts retailers, and body shops. It also trains professionals working in repair, maintenance, and body shop fields through its Automotive Training Institute. Its locations are run through a combination of company ownership, franchising, and independent operation.

Driven Brands was established in 1972 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina. Its shares trade on the NASDAQ under the ticker DRVN.

Listed
NASDAQ
Sector
Consumer services
Industry
Other consumer services
Website
drivenbrands.com

Driven Brands GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Driven Brands’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 63.8, in the Accumulation zone, down 1 point over five sessions.

010063.8Accumulation

Down 1 point over five sessions.

Reading for Oct 12, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying47+0.2%+1.4%+4.9%+12.0%
Accumulation (current zone)186+1.7%+2.0%+4.8%+5.3%
Neutral431−0.5%−0.6%−1.9%−2.5%
Distribution17−1.7%−1.8%+1.3%−2.8%
Selling1Too few readings yet

Average DRVN share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the DRVN price, zone by zone.Track DRVN in Gekko

Is Driven Brands stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Driven Brands trades 16.0% below Gekko Fair Value of $14.03, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Driven Brands shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$14.03

Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026

16.0% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 20.6% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$14$12Aug 2026SepOct 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open DRVN in Gekko

Driven Brands insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Driven Brands, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for DRVN in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every DRVN insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open DRVN in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in DRVN were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for DRVN, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open DRVN in Gekko

Buybacks

Driven Brands has been buying back its own shares.

Latest authorization
$100.0M, Sep 15, 2026
Bought back, quarter ended Jun 27, 2026
$2.15M
As a share of market cap
0.11%

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

2of the funds Gekko tracks hold DRVN.

0added0opened2trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

Driven Brands earnings: next date and track record

Driven Brands reports on Nov 3, 2026, before the open (22 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.

7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.7%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+6.7%Feb ’25+5.2%May ’25+2.2%Aug ’25+1.7%Nov ’25−0.1%Feb ’26−4.3%May ’26−0.8%Jun ’26−8.8%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 6, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Driven Brands Q2 2026 showed system-wide sales growth of 5% to $1.6B, revenue up 7% to $507M, and adjusted EBITDA of $107M. Take 5 delivered its 24th consecutive quarter of same-store sales growth at 3.6%, with system-wide sales up 13%. Net leverage reduced to 3.1x. Total footprint grew 5% to 4,300+ locations, adding 192 net new stores over 12 months.
Guidance
Management is approaching H2 with caution amid K-shaped consumer pressures, rising oil prices, and macro volatility. Take 5 targets 150+ annual new unit openings toward a 2,500+ location goal, supported by an 800-unit pipeline.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 6, 2026$0.29
est $0.26
+9.9%$507.4M
est $506.3M
+0.2%−8.8%
Jun 11, 2026$0.30
est $0.24
+25.0%$484.4M
est $480.8M
+0.7%−0.8%
May 12, 2026$0.34
est $0.24
+41.7%$460.1M
est $454.9M
+1.1%−4.3%
Feb 19, 2026$0.00
est $0.28
−100.0%——−0.1%
Nov 4, 2025$0.34
est $0.29
+17.2%$535.7M
est $459.5M
+16.6%+1.7%
Aug 5, 2025$0.36
est $0.34
+5.9%$551.0M
est $537.1M
+2.6%+2.2%
May 6, 2025$0.27
est $0.23
+17.4%$516.2M
est $540.9M
−4.6%+5.2%
Feb 25, 2025$0.30
est $0.17
+76.5%$564.1M
est $604.7M
−6.7%+6.7%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Driven Brands stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Driven Brands is $16.09, +36.6% from the last close, from 9 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$16.09consensus 12-month target, +36.6% from the last close
Low $12High $18
Buy2
Hold6
Sell1

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 9 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 22BarclaysHold, initiated$14+18.8%
Sep 15Goldman SachsHold, maintained$15+27.3%
Sep 10Bank of America SecuritiesSell, initiated$12+1.9%
Sep 10Canaccord GenuityBuy, reiterated$18+52.8%
Aug 7Canaccord GenuityBuy, maintained$17+44.3%
+4.8%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+4.5%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.9%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Driven Brands seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Driven Brands averaged +4.5% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+11.0%2021+1.2%2022−3.2%2023+20.6%2024−3.1%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+4.8%4 of 5
Next 10 trading days+4.9%4 of 5
Next 15 trading days+3.8%4 of 5
Next 20 trading days+4.5%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days+6.1%4 of 5

For scale, DRVN’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 6%.

Driven Brands market cap and key statistics

Driven Brands’s market cap is $1.94B, with a P/E ratio of 11.9 and revenue of $1.93B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$1.94B
P/E ratio
11.9
Forward P/E
8.6
EPS, TTM
$0.99
Gekko Fair Value
$14.03

Trading

Volume
617,852
Avg volume, 20 days
1.07M
52-week high
$17.30
52-week low
$9.80
Shares outstanding
165.0M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$1.93B
Profit margin
8.6%
Return on equity
20.7%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−37.0%

Risk and income

Beta
0.96
Typical daily move
±2.9%
Typical 20-day move
±6%

Driven Brands stock news this week

Coverage of Driven Brands this week reads negative: 2 positive, 3 neutral and 3 negative headlines.

News sentiment negative

Driven Brands peers

Driven Brands’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
BKNGBooking−1.2%Accumulation28.5% below
EXPEExpedia−1.5%Neutral2.6% below
SCIService Corporation International+0.7%Accumulation2.1% above
LTHLife Time−0.6%Accumulation15.7% below
ANDGAndersen+2.8%Neutral8.0% below
HRBH&R Block+0.3%Neutral38.0% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Driven Brands stock FAQ

What is Driven Brands’s market cap?

Driven Brands’s market cap is $1.94B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $11.78, with 165.0M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 11.9.

What is the Driven Brands stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Driven Brands is $16.09, +36.6% from the last close. Of the 9 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 2 rate it a buy, 6 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Driven Brands stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Driven Brands is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $11.78 is 16.0% below Gekko Fair Value of $14.03. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Driven Brands report earnings next?

Driven Brands is expected to report on Nov 3, 2026, before the market opens (22 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.28 per share on revenue of $516.2M. Driven Brands beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 3.7% on average across the report.

What is Driven Brands’s 52-week high and low?

Driven Brands’s 52-week high is $17.30 and its 52-week low is $9.80; it closed at $11.78 on Oct 12, 2026, −17.8% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $35.45 on Sep 12, 2022.

Is Driven Brands stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (trend and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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