Chagee (CHA) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Oct 12 close

$11.97+0.72 (+6.4%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryOct 12 close

Chagee drew fresh analyst attention this week after Wall Street issued a consensus "Hold" rating on the stock, with an average 12-month price target of $13.82 against a recent share price of $11.25. The same coverage noted that the company's latest quarterly EPS came in at $0.37, exceeding estimates, with a market capitalization of $2.06 billion.

Shares of CHA closed at $11.97, up 6.4% on the day, sitting above both the 50-day average of $11.24 and the 200-day average of $11.14. The GekkoIndex reads 54, placing the stock in the Neutral zone, while the price stands 34.9% below the Gekko Fair Value of $18.39.

The next earnings report is scheduled for 27 November 2026, 45 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior release on 28 August showed EPS of $0.36 against a $0.33 estimate, with a 12.4% reaction. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the current window. Separately, the broader analyst base tracked covers 2 firms, both rated buy, with a consensus target of $15.08 and consensus upside of 26%, a contrast worth noting against the single "Hold" rating highlighted this week.

Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

Chagee price vs fair value

$18.39$11.97Oct ’25Apr ’26Oct ’26
Close $11.97200-day averageGekko Fair Value $18.39

Chagee quick facts

Market cap
$2.28B
P/E ratio
11.4
Forward P/E
—
EPS, TTM
$0.99
Revenue, TTM
$13.14B
Profit margin
10.2%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
—
Volume
1.44M avg 796,628
1-year return
−26.4%
Typical daily move
±3.5%
Typical 20-day move
±8.3%
50-day average
$11.24
200-day average
$11.14
Next earnings
Nov 27 before open
Shares outstanding
125.5M
52-week range
$8.98$17.66

Chagee swing-trade checklist

Chagee scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 4 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive1 mixed0 headwinds

  • Trendsupportive

    Above 50 and 200-day

    Close $11.97 is above the 50-day ($11.24) and 200-day ($11.14) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexmixed

    54, Neutral

    Reading 54 is in the Neutral zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    34.9% below

    Price is 34.9% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 46 days

    Next report Nov 27, 2026, 46 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalityno data

    No data

    Not enough years of history for a seasonal read.

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Chagee stock chart and price history

Chagee closed at $11.97 on Oct 12, 2026, −26.4% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $8.98 to $17.66.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Chagee share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$10$15$20NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct11.97

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−2.2%
3 months
+6.1%
6 months
+19.3%
1 year
−26.4%
The full CHA chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open CHA in Gekko

Follow Chagee through every session

Put CHA on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About Chagee

Chagee owns, runs, and licenses teahouses under the CHAGEE name, serving customers in China as well as other countries. It is best known for its tea-based drinks, sold alongside the ingredients, packaging, and equipment that go into making and running its teahouses.

The business covers both the retail side, selling beverages to everyday customers, and a supply side, providing the raw materials and tools that teahouse operations need. Some of its commercial activity also takes place through online channels, giving customers additional ways to order and engage with the brand beyond physical locations.

Chagee was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Shanghai, in the People's Republic of China. Its shares trade under the ticker CHA.

Sector
Consumer non-durables
Website
investor.chagee.com

Chagee GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Chagee’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 54, in the Neutral zone, down 8.3 points over five sessions.

010054Neutral

Down 8.3 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.

Reading for Oct 12, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying38+2.6%+1.7%−2.1%−10.8%
Accumulation193−0.5%−1.3%−4.8%−15.9%
Neutral (current zone)129−3.0%−5.3%−6.4%−8.8%
Distribution7Too few readings yet
Selling0Not available

Average CHA share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the CHA price, zone by zone.Track CHA in Gekko

Is Chagee stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Chagee trades 34.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $18.39, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Chagee shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$18.39

Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026

34.9% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 19.2% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$18$11Aug 2026SepOct 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open CHA in Gekko

Chagee insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Chagee, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for CHA in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every CHA insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open CHA in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in CHA were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for CHA, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open CHA in Gekko

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Mar 31

0of the funds Gekko tracks hold CHA.

0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

Chagee earnings: next date and track record

Chagee reports on Nov 27, 2026, before the open (46 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 6 reports.

4 of 6reports beat the EPS estimate
±11.9%average move across the report
3 of 6reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−0.6%May ’25−15.9%Aug ’25+12.5%Nov ’25−4.7%Mar ’26+25.5%May ’26+12.4%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 28, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Chagee's Q2 2026 call highlighted strategic focus on fundamentals amid intensifying competition in the fresh milk tea category. The company is expanding its product mix with specialty deals and gelato, enhancing consumer reach through diversified content marketing, and upgrading its operating infrastructure. Management noted structural industry shifts including crowded supply side and fragmented traffic distribution. A $150M share repurchase program was announced, with ~$30M executed as of August 24.
Guidance
Management expressed confidence in achieving high-quality sustainable growth across any market environment. No specific revenue or earnings targets were disclosed in this excerpt. Continued investment in product innovation, overseas expansion, and organizational efficiency is expected.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 28, 2026$0.36
est $0.33
+9.1%$502.6M
est $526.2M
−4.5%+12.4%
May 28, 2026$0.38
est $0.27
+39.4%$513.9M
est $468.2M
+9.8%+25.5%
Mar 31, 2026$0.07
est $0.27
−74.4%$425.2M
est $518.2M
−17.9%−4.7%
Nov 28, 2025$0.36
est $0.36
0.0%$450.6M
est $3.74B
−87.9%+12.5%
Aug 29, 2025$0.46
est $0.09
+411.1%$464.6M
est $4.11B
−88.7%−15.9%
May 30, 2025$0.54—$3.39B—−0.6%
Mar 11, 2025$14.64
est $0.00
————

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Chagee stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Chagee is $15.08, +26.0% from the last close, from 2 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$15.08consensus 12-month target, +26.0% from the last close
Low $15.70High $16.60
Buy2
Hold0
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 2 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 1J.P. MorganBuy, maintained$16.60+38.7%
Aug 28MacquarieBuy, upgraded$15.70+31.2%
−6.4%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
±3.5%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Chagee market cap and key statistics

Chagee’s market cap is $2.28B, with a P/E ratio of 11.4 and revenue of $13.14B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$2.28B
P/E ratio
11.4
EPS, TTM
$0.99
Gekko Fair Value
$18.39

Trading

Volume
1.44M
Avg volume, 20 days
796,628
52-week high
$17.66
52-week low
$8.98
Shares outstanding
125.5M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$13.14B
Profit margin
10.2%
Return on equity
16.2%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+591.0%

Risk and income

Typical daily move
±3.5%
Typical 20-day move
±8.3%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Chagee stock news this week

2 headlines about Chagee from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.

More stocks

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Chagee stock FAQ

What is Chagee’s market cap?

Chagee’s market cap is $2.28B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $11.97, with 125.5M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 11.4.

What is the Chagee stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Chagee is $15.08, +26.0% from the last close. Of the 2 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 2 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Chagee stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Chagee is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $11.97 is 34.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $18.39. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Chagee report earnings next?

Chagee is expected to report on Nov 27, 2026, before the market opens (46 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.39 per share on revenue of $585.1M. Chagee beat the earnings estimate in 4 of its last 6 reports, moving 11.9% on average across the report.

What is Chagee’s 52-week high and low?

Chagee’s 52-week high is $17.66 and its 52-week low is $8.98; it closed at $11.97 on Oct 12, 2026, −26.4% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $41.80 on Apr 17, 2025.

Is Chagee stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 4 items with data read as supportive (trend, fair value and earnings risk), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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