Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for PAYX in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every PAYX insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open PAYX in Gekko
NASDAQ: PAYX
Paychex (PAYX) Stock Analysis & Forecast
$116.14−0.37 (−0.3%)
Close on Sep 18, 2026. Page updated Sep 19, 9:19 pm ET.
Gekko Brief
AI summaryPaychex closes at $116.14, down 0.3%, sitting between its 50-day average of $118.68 and 200-day average of $104.30. The GekkoIndex reads 64.8, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone. Price stands 14.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $135.85. Over the past year the stock is down 12.3%, though it has gained 18.2% over three months and 26.6% over six months.
This week's coverage centers on the approaching fiscal Q1 2027 earnings report, due 23 September, with consensus looking for EPS of $1.32 on revenue of $1.63 billion, an 8.2% year-over-year EPS increase and a 5.8% revenue rise. Commentary points to bookings, pricing, PEO momentum, Paycor synergies and AI-driven productivity as factors behind the quarter, following Q4 2026 results that showed 12% revenue growth, 11% EPS growth and 70 basis points of margin expansion. Separately, Wolfe Research upgraded Paychex to "Peer Perform" from "Underperform," and the company's WISE platform was named a 2026 Top HR Product of the Year by HR Executive.
The earnings date falls just 3 days out, inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window, with options data pointing to an expected 2.6% move on the release and an average absolute reaction of 3.8% over the last eight quarters, in which Paychex beat estimates seven times. Seasonality over this stretch of the calendar has averaged a 2.1% gain across 5 years, rising in 3 of them. Analyst coverage spans 15 firms, with a consensus target of $121 and 1 buy, 11 hold and 3 sell ratings.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 20, 2026 from the data above.
Price vs fair value
Close $116.14200-day averageGekko Fair Value $135.85
Key stats
- Market cap
- $41.31B
- P/E ratio
- 23.9
- Forward P/E
- 19.5
- EPS, TTM
- $4.88
- Revenue, TTM
- $6.51B
- Profit margin
- 27%
- Dividend yield
- 3.80%
- Beta
- 0.81
- Volume
- 9.56M avg 2.61M
- 1-year return
- −12.3%
- Typical daily move
- ±2.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4.1%
- 50-day average
- $118.68
- 200-day average
- $104.30
- Next earnings
- Sep 23
- Shares outstanding
- 356.0M
Paychex swing-trade checklist
Paychex scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $116.14 sits between the 50-day ($118.68) and 200-day ($104.30) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
64.8, Accumulation
Reading 64.8 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
14.5% below
Price is 14.5% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 3 days
Reports on Sep 23, 2026, 3 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+2.1% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +2.1% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Paychex stock chart and price history
Paychex closed at $116.14 on Sep 18, 2026, −12.3% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $85.45 to $132.87.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −5.2%
- 3 months
- +18.2%
- 6 months
- +26.6%
- 1 year
- −12.3%
The full PAYX chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open PAYX in Gekko
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About Paychex
Paychex provides human capital management services, helping smaller and mid-sized businesses handle payroll, human resources, employee benefits, and insurance needs. It is widely recognized for its payroll processing capabilities, which include tax administration, wage payments, and compliance support for tasks like new-hire reporting and garnishment handling.
Beyond payroll, Paychex offers retirement plan administration, cloud-based HR software for functions such as time tracking and recruitment, and a range of insurance products covering areas like workers' compensation and health benefits. The company also supports business operations through services like payroll funding, unemployment insurance administration, and financial wellness resources. Its customer base consists mainly of small and medium-sized businesses located in the United States, Europe, and India, and it reaches these clients primarily through its own direct sales force rather than third-party channels.
Paychex was established in 1971 and operates out of Rochester, New York. Its shares are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker PAYX.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Technology services
- Industry
- Data processing services
- Website
- paychex.com
Paychex GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Paychex’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 64.8, in the Accumulation zone, up 0.6 points over five sessions.
64.8Accumulation
Up 0.6 points over five sessions.
Reading for Sep 18, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 41 | −1.4% | −1.6% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 236 | +0.2% | −1.3% | ||
| Neutral | 363 | +0.1% | +1.4% | ||
| Distribution | 16 | −1.3% | −0.5% | ||
| Selling | 6 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average PAYX share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the PAYX price, zone by zone.Track PAYX in Gekko
Is Paychex stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Paychex trades 14.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $135.85, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Paychex shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$135.85
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 19, 2026
14.5% Undervalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open PAYX in Gekko
Paychex insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Paychex, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in PAYX were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for PAYX, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open PAYX in Gekko
Buybacks
Paychex has been buying back its own shares.
- Latest authorization
- $1.00B, Jan 20, 2026
- Bought back, quarter ended May 31, 2026
- $249.4M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.60%
- Trailing four quarters
- $611.0M
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
0of the funds Gekko tracks hold PAYX.
0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Paychex earnings: next date and track record
Paychex reports on Sep 23, 2026 (3 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Sep 23, 2026
3 days away
- EPS estimate
- $1.32
- Revenue estimate
- $1.63B
7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.8%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jun 24, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Paychex reported strong FY26 results and positive momentum exiting the year driven by successful integration of Paycor, acceleration of organic revenue growth, double-digit revenue and earnings growth in Q4 and full year, and margin expansion. Management highlighted strategic progress on upmarket expansion, advisory differentiation (ASO, PEO, retirement), product modularization (allowing non-payroll standalone sales), and AI capabilities (WISE platform and agents) that are already delivering time savings, error reductions, internal productivity gains, and early revenue. Paycor integration and cross-sell traction drove revenue synergies; enterprise bookings improved each quarter. Financial performance included 12% revenue growth in Q4 to $1.6B and 17% for the year to $6.5B, adjusted operating margin expansion (~42% Q4, ~43% FY), and EPS growth (diluted EPS +43% in Q4 to $1.17; FY diluted EPS +7% to $4.89). Management expressed confidence in FY27 setup but noted certain headwinds (e.g., lower interest income on client funds, some agency drag in insurance, and tougher PEO comps in the back half).
- Guidance
- Fiscal 2027 guidance highlights provided during the call: - Revenue growth range: ~5%–6% (management said FY27 guide in that range for organic growth). - Adjusted operating income margin: approximately 44% (management noted ~44% as the guide for FY27 adjusted operating margin). - Interest on funds held for clients expected to decline ~4%–5% year-over-year (a headwind for revenue).
- Risks flagged
- - Macro and recession risk: Management assumes a stable macro environment; deterioration could hurt bookings/retention. - Interest-rate/interest-on-funds headwind: expected ~4%–5% decline in interest income on client funds. - Agency (insurance) segment drag: agency business is a headwind within PEO & Insurance Solutions, though improving. - Competitive pressure and client churn in lower-end market: client losses occur primarily among smaller clients (out-of-business or lower-LTV); aggressive client acquisition could hurt margins. - Integration and execution risks: while management reports progress, past integration work disrupted sales/operations and future integration or migration choices (e.g., platform unification) carry execution risk.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 2026 | $1.32 est $1.31 | $1.61B est $1.60B | −1.3% |
| Mar 25, 2026 | $1.71 est $1.67 | $1.81B est $1.78B | +3.3% |
| Dec 19, 2025 | $1.26 est $1.23 | $1.56B est $1.55B | +0.6% |
| Sep 30, 2025 | $1.22 est $1.20 | $1.54B est $1.54B | −3.5% |
| Jun 25, 2025 | $1.19 est $1.19 | $1.43B est $1.44B | −7.4% |
| Mar 26, 2025 | $1.49 est $1.48 | $1.51B est $1.51B | +5.3% |
| Dec 19, 2024 | $1.14 est $1.13 | $1.32B est $1.31B | +2.7% |
| Sep 30, 2024 | $1.16 est $1.14 | $1.32B est $1.31B | +5.9% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Paychex stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Paychex is $121.00, +4.2% from the last close, from 15 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$121.00consensus 12-month target, +4.2% from the last close
Now $116.14Avg $121.00
Low $103High $150
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 15 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18 | Morgan Stanley | $109 | −6.1% |
| Sep 16 | Wolfe Research | — | — |
| Sep 16 | Guggenheim | — | — |
| Sep 14 | UBS | $125 | +7.6% |
| Sep 11 | UBS | $125 | +7.6% |
−1.3%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+2.1%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.2%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Paychex seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 19, Paychex averaged +2.1% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −2.0% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +0.2% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +0.6% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +2.1% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +0.4% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, PAYX’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 4.1%.
Paychex market cap and key statistics
Paychex’s market cap is $41.31B, with a P/E ratio of 23.9 and revenue of $6.51B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $41.31B
- P/E ratio
- 23.9
- Forward P/E
- 19.5
- EPS, TTM
- $4.88
- Gekko Fair Value
- $135.85
Trading
- Volume
- 9.56M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 2.61M
- 52-week high
- $132.87
- 52-week low
- $85.45
- Shares outstanding
- 356.0M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $6.51B
- Profit margin
- 27%
- Return on equity
- 44.8%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +43.4%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.81
- Typical daily move
- ±2.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4.1%
- Dividend yield
- 3.80%
Paychex stock news this week
Coverage of Paychex this week reads positive: 2 positive, 2 neutral and 0 negative headlines.
- Paychex (PAYX) Q1 2027 Preview: EPS Est. $1.32, Reports September 23AlphaStreet, Sep 18
- Paychex Gears Up to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store?Zacks Investment Research, Sep 18
- Paychex (PAYX) Q1 Earnings Preview: What You Should Know Beyond the Headline EstimatesZacks Investment Research, Sep 18
- Paychex: Moderate Growth, Better Price, Still A BuySeeking Alpha, Sep 17
- Paychex shares may move 2.6% on Sept. 23 earnings release By Investing.comInvesting.com Australia, Sep 17
- Wolfe Research Upgrades Paychex to Peer Perform From Underperformmarketscreener.com, Sep 16
Paychex peers
Paychex’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| VRSKVerisk Analytics | Accumulation | 26.2% below |
| JJacobs Solutions | Neutral | 9.0% above |
| IRENIREN | Neutral | 15.6% below |
| AKAMAkamai Technologies | Accumulation | 21.1% below |
| TYLTyler Technologies | Neutral | 13.1% below |
| GDDYGoDaddy | Neutral | 19.0% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Paychex stock FAQ
What is Paychex’s market cap?
Paychex’s market cap is $41.31B at the Sep 18, 2026 close of $116.14, with 356.0M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 23.9.
What is the Paychex stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Paychex is $121.00, +4.2% from the last close. Of the 15 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 1 rate it a buy, 11 a hold and 3 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Paychex stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Paychex is undervalued: the Sep 18, 2026 close of $116.14 is 14.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $135.85. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Paychex report earnings next?
Paychex is expected to report on Sep 23, 2026 (3 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.32 per share on revenue of $1.63B. Paychex beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 3.8% on average across the report.
What is Paychex’s 52-week high and low?
Paychex’s 52-week high is $132.87 and its 52-week low is $85.45; it closed at $116.14 on Sep 18, 2026, −12.3% over the past year.
Is Paychex stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
Prices and signals update after every US market close; the GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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