Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for DBX in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every DBX insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open DBX in Gekko
NASDAQ: DBX
Dropbox (DBX) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Sep 28 close
$31.92−0.40 (−1.2%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryDropbox declined this week after Citi downgraded the stock, citing valuation concerns and arguing that the price already reflects AI-driven growth prospects prematurely. The move added to a broader pullback, with shares falling 4.56% on one session alone as the stock underperformed the broader market.
Dropbox closed at $31.92, down 1.2%, sitting between its 50-day average of $33.97 and 200-day average of $28.08. The GekkoIndex reads 67.5, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone. Price sits 40.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $53.27. Over the past month the stock has returned -11%, though it remains up 16.5% over three months and 44.1% over six months.
The next earnings report is due 5 November 2026, 37 days away and after the market close, falling outside a typical 20-trading-day holding window. In the last 30 days, one unusual options signal has been recorded, with put premium of $477,811 and no call premium. Analyst views are split, with 6 firms covering the stock: 1 buy, 2 hold, and 3 sell, and a consensus target of $31.80. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 0.1% return over 5 years, rising in 3 of those years.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.
Dropbox price vs fair value
Close $31.92200-day averageGekko Fair Value $53.27
Dropbox quick facts
- Market cap
- $8.12B
- P/E ratio
- 17.9
- Forward P/E
- 10.9
- EPS, TTM
- $1.81
- Revenue, TTM
- $2.53B
- Profit margin
- 17.5%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 0.65
- Volume
- 5.53M avg 4.80M
- 1-year return
- +2.2%
- Typical daily move
- ±4.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.6%
- 50-day average
- $33.97
- 200-day average
- $28.08
- Next earnings
- Nov 5 after close
- Shares outstanding
- 142.3M
Dropbox swing-trade checklist
Dropbox scores 4 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
4 supportive1 mixed1 headwind
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $31.92 sits between the 50-day ($33.97) and 200-day ($28.08) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
67.5, Accumulation
Reading 67.5 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
40.1% below
Price is 40.1% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyheadwind
Leans bearish
Last 30 days: 1 unusual options signal.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 37 days
Next report Nov 5, 2026, 37 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+0.1% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +0.1% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Dropbox stock chart and price history
Dropbox closed at $31.92 on Sep 28, 2026, +2.2% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $21.70 to $38.17.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −11.0%
- 3 months
- +16.5%
- 6 months
- +44.1%
- 1 year
- +2.2%
The full DBX chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open DBX in Gekko
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About Dropbox
Dropbox builds tools that let people back up, sync, and share files across devices. Its lineup extends beyond the core Dropbox product to include Reply, Sign, Reclaim.ai, Dash, DocSend, Fax, and an Early Access offering, giving it a broader set of tools around document handling and workflow beyond simple storage.
The company organizes its business into two geographic segments, one covering the United States and the other covering international markets, reflecting how it tracks and reports its operations across regions.
Dropbox was founded in May 2007 by Andrew W. Houston and Arash Ferdowsi, and it is headquartered in San Francisco, California. Its shares trade on the NASDAQ under the ticker DBX.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Technology services
- Industry
- Data processing services
- Website
- dropbox.com
Dropbox GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Dropbox’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 67.5, in the Accumulation zone, up 14.2 points over five sessions.
67.5Accumulation
Up 14.2 points over five sessions, from the Neutral zone.
Reading for Sep 28, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 33 | +0.6% | +3.5% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 205 | +0.6% | +1.3% | ||
| Neutral | 401 | 0.0% | +0.8% | ||
| Distribution | 32 | −1.1% | −7.6% | ||
| Selling | 1 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average DBX share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the DBX price, zone by zone.Track DBX in Gekko
Is Dropbox stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Dropbox trades 40.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $53.27, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Dropbox shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$53.27
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026
40.1% Undervalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open DBX in Gekko
Dropbox insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Dropbox, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in DBX were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for DBX, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open DBX in Gekko
Buybacks
Dropbox has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $330.3M
- As a share of market cap
- 4.07%
- Trailing four quarters
- $1.54B
From company filings.
Unusual options activity last 30 days
1signal, 0% of the flagged premium in calls.
Latest: Bearish flow on Sep 2, $478K in unusual premium.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Mar 31
0of the funds Gekko tracks hold DBX.
0added0opened0trimmed3sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko
Dropbox earnings: next date and track record
Dropbox reports on Nov 5, 2026, after the close (37 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 5, 2026
Expected after the close, 37 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.73
- Revenue estimate
- $629.7M
7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±6.2%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 6, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Management opened the call by describing a CEO transition and framing the quarter as proof that Dropbox's Core business has returned to growth due to operational improvements. Executives highlighted three strategic phases: returning the FSS/core product to growth, proving that growth is durable, and ultimately expanding growth via a unified platform and AI-driven capabilities. Management pointed to three consecutive quarters of paying user growth, Teams license growth, improved onboarding, conversion and retention, and success with a lower‑priced "Simple" SKU as drivers. They emphasized Dropbox's content platform as uniquely valuable in an AI-first world, noting integrations with Claude/GPT ecosystems and agentic capabilities already in the product. Financial commentary was measured: management expects modest ARPU declines (FX, monthly mix, rolling off FormSwift), reiterated positive net new paying users for the year, and flagged gross margin pressure from AI compute costs but offset by infrastructure efficiency. They are rolling out AI to the majority of Teams in the back half of the year but are not yet baking substantial monetization from AI into this year's guidance. Overall tone blended cautious confidence about execution with explicit acknowledgment of remaining work and near-term margin headwinds.
- Guidance
- Expect positive net new paying users for the full year; modest decline in ARPU for the year; gross margin guidance for the year of ~81.5%; majority of Teams to receive AI rollouts in back half of the year. Management is not baking Phase 3 AI-driven monetization into this year and will provide further updates quarter-to-quarter.
- Risks flagged
- Gross margin pressure from increased compute costs for AI features; FX headwinds and mix effects lowering ARPU (including rolling off FormSwift); execution risk in moving from Phase 2 to Phase 3 and monetizing AI; macroeconomic uncertainty noted in legal disclaimers.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | $0.42 est $0.48 | $631.5M est $626.7M | −0.5% |
| May 7, 2026 | $0.76 est $0.70 | $629.5M est $620.6M | +17.1% |
| Feb 19, 2026 | $0.68 est $0.66 | $636.2M est $628.9M | +3.2% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $0.74 est $0.65 | $634.4M est $624.0M | +6.0% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | $0.71 est $0.63 | $625.7M est $619.9M | +1.5% |
| May 8, 2025 | $0.70 est $0.62 | $624.7M est $620.1M | +0.2% |
| Feb 20, 2025 | $0.73 est $0.62 | $643.6M est $638.6M | −18.2% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $0.60 est $0.53 | $638.8M est $637.7M | −3.1% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Dropbox stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Dropbox is $31.80, −0.4% from the last close, from 6 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$31.80consensus 12-month target, −0.4% from the last close
Now $31.92Avg $31.80
Low $23High $42
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 6 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | Citi | $29 | −9.1% |
| Sep 8 | Citi | $33 | +3.4% |
| Sep 2 | RBC Capital | $42 | +31.6% |
| Aug 8 | William Blair | — | — |
| Aug 7 | Citi | $33 | +3.4% |
+1.3%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+0.1%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4.2%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Dropbox seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Dropbox averaged +0.1% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +0.3% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −1.0% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +0.6% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +0.1% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +1.3% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, DBX’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5.6%.
Dropbox market cap and key statistics
Dropbox’s market cap is $8.12B, with a P/E ratio of 17.9 and revenue of $2.53B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $8.12B
- P/E ratio
- 17.9
- Forward P/E
- 10.9
- EPS, TTM
- $1.81
- Gekko Fair Value
- $53.27
Trading
- Volume
- 5.53M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 4.80M
- 52-week high
- $38.17
- 52-week low
- $21.70
- Shares outstanding
- 142.3M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $2.53B
- Profit margin
- 17.5%
- Return on equity
- 16.8%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −6.7%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.65
- Typical daily move
- ±4.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.6%
Dropbox stock news this week
2 headlines about Dropbox from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.
- Why Dropbox (DBX) Dipped More Than Broader Market TodayZacks Investment Research, Sep 24
- Dropbox Stock Falls on Downgrade as Price Prematurely Reflects AI Growth, Says AnalystBarrons, Sep 24
Dropbox peers
Dropbox’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| PAYXPaychex | Buying | 24.5% below |
| VRSKVerisk Analytics | Accumulation | 27.1% below |
| JJacobs Solutions | Accumulation | 6.2% above |
| AKAMAkamai Technologies | Neutral | 15.4% below |
| IRENIREN | Neutral | 24.3% below |
| TYLTyler Technologies | Accumulation | 15.0% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Dropbox stock FAQ
What is Dropbox’s market cap?
Dropbox’s market cap is $8.12B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $31.92, with 142.3M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 17.9.
What is the Dropbox stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Dropbox is $31.80, −0.4% from the last close. Of the 6 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 1 rate it a buy, 2 a hold and 3 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Dropbox stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Dropbox is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $31.92 is 40.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $53.27. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Dropbox report earnings next?
Dropbox is expected to report on Nov 5, 2026, after the market closes (37 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.73 per share on revenue of $629.7M. Dropbox beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 6.2% on average across the report.
What is Dropbox’s 52-week high and low?
Dropbox’s 52-week high is $38.17 and its 52-week low is $21.70; it closed at $31.92 on Sep 28, 2026, +2.2% over the past year.
Is Dropbox stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, earnings risk and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend) and 1 as a headwind (smart money). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
Is there unusual options activity in Dropbox?
Gekko flagged 1 unusual options signal in Dropbox over the last 30 days, with $0 of flagged premium in calls and $478K in puts. The latest, bearish flow, was on Sep 2, 2026 with $478K in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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