Novo Nordisk (NVO) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Nov 4 close

$42.18+1.99 (+5.0%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryNov 4 close

Novo Nordisk shares jumped about 5% this week after the company raised its 2026 outlook for the second time in three months, with Q3 results beating estimates on surging Wegovy pill growth. The oral obesity treatment reached 5 million total prescriptions since its U.S. launch and roughly 90% of the oral obesity market, with one report citing an 80% milestone tied to the pill's uptake. Obesity care continued to offset diabetes weakness, with international markets outperforming the U.S., while CEO Mike Doustdar declined to give formal 2027 guidance despite outlining factors expected to help and hurt next year's sales.

The stock closed at $42.18, up 5% on the day, sitting between its 50-day average of $40.84 and 200-day average of $43.90. The GekkoIndex reads 47.3, placing NVO in the Neutral zone, down 16.1 points over the last five sessions. Shares trade 25.8% below the Gekko Fair Value of $56.88, within a 52-week range of $35.12 to $64.16, and remain down 14.1% over the past year despite a 12.4% gain over the last month.

No confirmed earnings date is currently on the calendar following the 5 August report, where NVO beat EPS estimates ($0.96 versus $0.82) and reacted 3.8%, part of a run of 6 beats in the last 8 quarters with an average absolute reaction of 5.3%. Over the last 90 days, Congress recorded 1 buy and 0 sells, and one billionaire holder is noted. Analyst consensus across 7 firms stands at 6 hold and 1 sell ratings, with a consensus target of $45.05, implying 6.8% upside. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 1.3% return over 5 years, positive in 2 of them.

Written by AI from the Nov 4, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

Novo Nordisk price vs fair value

$56.88$42.18Nov ’25May ’26Nov ’26
Close $42.18200-day averageGekko Fair Value $56.88

Novo Nordisk quick facts

Market cap
$187.6B
P/E ratio
9.9
Forward P/E
12.3
EPS, TTM
$4.09
Revenue, TTM
$329.4B
Profit margin
35.3%
Dividend yield
4.44%
Beta
0.37
Volume
25.31M avg 10.44M
1-year return
−14.1%
Typical daily move
±2.1%
Typical 20-day move
±6.6%
50-day average
$40.84
200-day average
$43.90
Next earnings
—
Shares outstanding
3.34B
52-week range
$35.12$64.16

Novo Nordisk swing-trade checklist

Novo Nordisk scores 2 supportive, 3 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

2 supportive3 mixed0 headwinds

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $42.18 sits between the 50-day ($40.84) and 200-day ($43.90) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexmixed

    47.3, Neutral

    Reading 47.3 is in the Neutral zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    25.8% below

    Price is 25.8% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneysupportive

    Leans bullish

    Last 90 days: Congress 1 buy / 0 sales.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskno data

    No data

    No confirmed report date on the calendar.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitymixed

    +1.3% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +1.3% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Novo Nordisk stock chart and price history

Novo Nordisk closed at $42.18 on Nov 4, 2026, −14.1% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $35.12 to $64.16.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Novo Nordisk share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$40$50$60DecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct42.18

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
+12.4%
3 months
−8.2%
6 months
−7.8%
1 year
−14.1%
The full NVO chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open NVO in Gekko

Follow Novo Nordisk through every session

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About Novo Nordisk

Novo Nordisk makes and sells medicines to patients around the world, reaching markets in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, several Asian markets such as Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, and North America. Its name is most tied to diabetes and obesity treatment, though it also supplies medicines for heart-related conditions and for a set of rare diseases.

Its work is divided into two units. One handles diabetes and obesity, plus cardiovascular care and some newer treatment areas, while the other focuses on rare blood conditions, uncommon hormonal disorders and hormone replacement therapy. Alongside its drugs, the company builds related hardware like insulin pens, growth hormone pens and needles for injections, and offers digital aids for people managing diabetes, among them connected pens and an app called Dose Check that helps with dosing decisions. It has also teamed up with other organizations, working alongside UNICEF on reducing childhood obesity and with Valo Health on identifying new drug candidates for cardiometabolic disease.

The company traces back to 1923 and runs its headquarters out of Bagsvaerd, Denmark. Its stock can be found under the ticker NVO.

Sector
Health technology
Website
novonordisk.com

Novo Nordisk GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Novo Nordisk’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 47.3, in the Neutral zone, down 16.1 points over five sessions.

010047.3Neutral

Down 16.1 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.

Reading for Nov 4, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying90+0.1%+0.5%+1.3%+4.6%
Accumulation268−0.4%−2.0%−2.6%−6.0%
Neutral (current zone)261−1.4%−1.5%−3.8%−12.4%
Distribution31+0.5%−0.7%−8.2%−10.9%
Selling0Not available

Average NVO share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.0% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the NVO price, zone by zone.Track NVO in Gekko

Is Novo Nordisk stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Novo Nordisk trades 25.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $56.88, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Novo Nordisk shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$56.88

Gekko Fair Value, Nov 4, 2026

25.8% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 28.4% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$57$40Aug 2026SepOctNov 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open NVO in Gekko

Novo Nordisk insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Novo Nordisk, and members of Congress disclosed 1 purchase and 0 sales, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for NVO in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every NVO insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open NVO in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

1trade disclosed: 1 purchase and 0 sales.

MemberTypeAmountDisclosed
Scott Mr Franklin
House, FL, purchase
Purchase$1,001 - $15,000Sep 18
traded Aug 26

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Dec 31

1of the funds Gekko tracks holds NVO.

1added0opened0trimmed2sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

Novo Nordisk earnings: next date and track record

Novo Nordisk beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 5.3% on average across the report.

6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±5.3%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−2.3%Nov ’24+5.5%Feb ’25−2.2%May ’25+3.3%Aug ’25−3.6%Nov ’25−19.9%Feb ’26+2.1%May ’26+3.8%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 5, 2026 AI summary

What they said
NVO reported Q2 2026 adjusted sales growth of 7% at CER, with U.S. operations up 4% and International Operations up 10%. Obesity care sales surged 16% driven by Wegovy portfolio volume growth. The Wegovy pill achieved 5 million total prescriptions since U.S. launch, capturing ~90% of oral obesity market. Nearly 5 million patients are on obesity treatments, up ~70% year-over-year. ZEUS trial with ziltivekimab produced disappointing results but management reaffirmed strategic direction.
Guidance
Management raised full-year 2026 guidance for the second time, citing continued volume-driven growth momentum. No specific revenue or EPS targets were detailed in this excerpt, with CFO Karsten Munk Knudsen expected to elaborate on updated figures later in the call.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 5, 2026$0.96
est $0.82
+17.1%$12.13B
est $10.89B
+11.4%+3.8%
May 6, 2026$6.63
est $6.96
−4.7%$11.02B
est $10.86B
+1.5%+2.1%
Feb 3, 2026$6.04
est $5.90
+2.4%——−19.9%
Nov 5, 2025$1.02
est $0.77
+32.5%$11.78B
est $12.37B
−4.8%−3.6%
Aug 6, 2025$0.97
est $0.93
+4.3%$12.13B
est $12.30B
−1.4%+3.3%
May 7, 2025$0.92
est $0.92
0.0%$11.49B
est $11.94B
−3.8%−2.2%
Feb 5, 2025$6.34
est $5.97
+6.2%$11.86B
est $11.55B
+2.7%+5.5%
Nov 6, 2024$6.12
est $5.92
+3.4%——−2.3%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Novo Nordisk stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Novo Nordisk is $45.05, +6.8% from the last close, from 7 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$45.05consensus 12-month target, +6.8% from the last close
Low $40High $47
Buy0
Hold6
Sell1

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 7 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Nov 4BMO CapitalHold, maintained$40−5.2%
Oct 12BMO CapitalHold, maintained$40−5.2%
Oct 7BMO CapitalHold, maintained$47+11.4%
Sep 29BMO CapitalHold, maintained$47+11.4%
Sep 22TD CowenHold, maintained$42−0.4%
−3.8%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+1.3%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.1%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Novo Nordisk seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Nov 4, Novo Nordisk averaged +1.3% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−7.6%2021+13.0%2022−1.4%2023−0.5%2024−1.4%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+0.3%2 of 5
Next 10 trading days−1.4%2 of 5
Next 15 trading days0.0%2 of 5
Next 20 trading days+1.3%2 of 5
Next 30 trading days+1.4%2 of 5

For scale, NVO’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 6.6%.

Novo Nordisk market cap and key statistics

Novo Nordisk’s market cap is $187.6B, with a P/E ratio of 9.9 and revenue of $329.4B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$187.6B
P/E ratio
9.9
Forward P/E
12.3
EPS, TTM
$4.09
Gekko Fair Value
$56.88

Trading

Volume
25.31M
Avg volume, 20 days
10.44M
52-week high
$64.16
52-week low
$35.12
Shares outstanding
3.34B

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$329.4B
Profit margin
35.3%
Return on equity
59.8%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−20.6%

Risk and income

Beta
0.37
Typical daily move
±2.1%
Typical 20-day move
±6.6%
Dividend yield
4.44%

Novo Nordisk stock news this week

Coverage of Novo Nordisk this week reads negative: 0 positive, 1 neutral and 5 negative headlines.

News sentiment negative

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Novo Nordisk stock FAQ

What is Novo Nordisk’s market cap?

Novo Nordisk’s market cap is $187.6B at the Nov 4, 2026 close of $42.18, with 3.34B shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 9.9.

What is the Novo Nordisk stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Novo Nordisk is $45.05, +6.8% from the last close. Of the 7 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 0 rate it a buy, 6 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Novo Nordisk stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Novo Nordisk is undervalued: the Nov 4, 2026 close of $42.18 is 25.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $56.88. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

What is Novo Nordisk’s 52-week high and low?

Novo Nordisk’s 52-week high is $64.16 and its 52-week low is $35.12; it closed at $42.18 on Nov 4, 2026, −14.1% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $148.15 on Jun 25, 2024.

Is Novo Nordisk stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (fair value and smart money), 3 as mixed (trend, gekkoindex and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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