NYSE: KMX

CarMax (KMX) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$56.55−0.66 (−1.2%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

CarMax heads into its fiscal second-quarter earnings report, due before the open on 29 September, with attention fixed on CEO Keith Barr's turnaround strategy built around competitive pricing and stronger marketing. Truist has reiterated a Hold rating with a $70 price target, citing continued competition from publicly traded dealership groups and direct-to-consumer platforms, while Oppenheimer points to possible progress in the repositioning effort even as macroeconomic risks linger. Coverage also flags softening US consumer sentiment and analyst estimates ranging near $0.72 to $0.73 in EPS against revenue estimates around $6.97 billion to $7.09 billion, with the stock having climbed 48% in 2026 before this week's pullback.

CarMax shares closed at $56.55, down 1.2%, sitting below the 50-day average of $59.38 but above the 200-day average of $47.89, with a one-month return of -9.7% against a six-month gain of 38.4%. The GekkoIndex reads 67.3, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, and price sits 1.4% above Gekko Fair Value of $55.77.

Earnings arrive with zero days to go, placing the report inside the coming 20-trading-day window; the last print beat estimates with $1.31 versus $0.94 expected, producing a 3% reaction, and average absolute moves around earnings have run 9.3%. Smart money shows one Congressional buy and no sales over the past 90 days, alongside one trailblazer holder. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged -6.6% over five years, with no positive years in that span.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

CarMax price vs fair value

$56.55$55.77Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $56.55200-day averageGekko Fair Value $55.77

CarMax quick facts

Market cap
$8.03B
P/E ratio
35.7
Forward P/E
21.6
EPS, TTM
$1.58
Revenue, TTM
$28.20B
Profit margin
0.8%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
1.17
Volume
6.36M avg 2.38M
1-year return
+24.0%
Typical daily move
±4%
Typical 20-day move
±7.9%
50-day average
$59.38
200-day average
$47.89
Next earnings
Sep 29 before open
Shares outstanding
141.9M
52-week range
$30.26$65.28

CarMax swing-trade checklist

CarMax scores 2 supportive, 2 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

2 supportive2 mixed2 headwinds

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $56.55 sits between the 50-day ($59.38) and 200-day ($47.89) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    67.3, Accumulation

    Reading 67.3 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuemixed

    1.4% above

    Price is within 5% of Gekko Fair Value (1.4% above).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneysupportive

    Leans bullish

    Last 90 days: Congress 1 buy / 0 sales.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports today

    Reports on Sep 29, 2026, today — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalityheadwind

    −6.6% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −6.6% over 5 years, rising in 0 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

CarMax stock chart and price history

CarMax closed at $56.55 on Sep 28, 2026, +24.0% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $30.26 to $65.28.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
CarMax share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$30$40$50$60$70NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep56.55

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−9.7%
3 months
+6.4%
6 months
+38.4%
1 year
+24.0%
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About CarMax

CarMax sells used cars to everyday consumers across the United States, offering domestic, imported, and luxury models along with hybrid and electric vehicles. Buyers can also add extended protection plans when they purchase a vehicle. The company is widely recognized for this retail used-car business, which it runs alongside a wholesale channel that auctions off older, higher-mileage vehicles, typically around a decade old with over 100,000 miles on them. It also handles reconditioning and repair work on the cars it sells.

The business is split into two main parts: CarMax Sales Operations, which covers retail and wholesale vehicle sales, and CarMax Auto Finance, which arranges financing for retail customers. Buyers with different credit situations can secure loans either through this in-house finance arm or through outside lending partners. As of early 2022, the company ran roughly 230 used-car retail locations.

CarMax was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker KMX.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Retail trade
Industry
Specialty stores
Website
carmax.com

CarMax GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

CarMax’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 67.3, in the Accumulation zone, unchanged over five sessions.

010067.3Accumulation

Unchanged over five sessions.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying43−2.2%−0.1%+1.9%+0.6%
Accumulation (current zone)235+0.4%+0.5%+1.4%+3.1%
Neutral359+0.1%−0.3%−0.9%−3.4%
Distribution34+0.1%+1.5%+1.2%+6.9%
Selling1Too few readings yet

Average KMX share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the KMX price, zone by zone.Track KMX in Gekko

Is CarMax stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

CarMax trades 1.4% above Gekko Fair Value of $55.77, so the shares are about fair value on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what CarMax shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$55.77

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026

1.4% above fair value · About fair value

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open KMX in Gekko

CarMax insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for CarMax, and members of Congress disclosed 1 purchase and 0 sales, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for KMX in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every KMX insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open KMX in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

1trade disclosed: 1 purchase and 0 sales.

MemberTypeAmountDisclosed
Gilbert Cisneros
House, CA, purchase
Purchase$1,001 - $15,000Sep 11
traded Aug 19

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Buybacks

CarMax has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended May 31, 2026
$2.31M
As a share of market cap
0.03%
Trailing four quarters
$441.1M

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

1of the funds Gekko tracks holds KMX.

0added1opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

CarMax earnings: next date and track record

CarMax reports on Sep 29, 2026, before the open (today), and beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.

4 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±9.3%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+3.8%Sep ’24+3.5%Dec ’24−14.6%Apr ’25+4.4%Jun ’25−21.4%Sep ’25−6.3%Dec ’25−17.5%Apr ’26+3.0%Jun ’26

Last earnings call, Jun 17, 2026 AI summary

What they said
CarMax Q1 FY2027 earnings call featured CEO Keith Barr outlining a four-pillar growth strategy: great offering, easy experience, value-added transactions, and operational efficiency. Management acknowledged operational shortfalls including pricing competitiveness issues, high costs, and friction in the digital-to-in-store customer journey. Key initiatives include enhanced pricing algorithms using local market data and better integration of digital capabilities with physical stores reaching 85% of U.S. population.
Guidance
Management provided no specific revenue or EPS targets in this excerpt. Forward-looking commentary focused on driving unit and earnings growth to reward shareholders, with urgency around operational improvements to improve conversion rates and market share gains in the fragmented used car market.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Jun 17, 2026$1.31
est $0.94
+38.8%$8.01B
est $7.42B
+7.9%+3.0%
Apr 14, 2026−$0.85
est $0.18
−578.3%——−17.5%
Dec 18, 2025$0.51
est $0.31
+66.4%$6.24B
est $5.64B
+10.6%−6.3%
Sep 25, 2025$0.64
est $1.04
−38.5%$7.08B
est $7.01B
+1.1%−21.4%
Jun 20, 2025$1.38
est $1.17
+18.3%$7.55B
est $7.50B
+0.6%+4.4%
Apr 10, 2025$0.58
est $0.66
−12.3%$6.00B
est $6.00B
+0.1%−14.6%
Dec 19, 2024$0.81
est $0.61
+33.3%$6.22B
est $6.05B
+2.9%+3.5%
Sep 26, 2024$0.85
est $0.86
−1.2%$7.01B
est $6.83B
+2.7%+3.8%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

CarMax stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for CarMax is $56.54, 0.0% from the last close, from 7 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$56.54consensus 12-month target, 0.0% from the last close
Low $47High $74
Buy1
Hold6
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 7 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 25OppenheimerHold, maintained——
Sep 25StephensBuy, reiterated$74+30.9%
Sep 23Morgan StanleyHold, maintained$47−16.9%
Sep 23Morgan StanleyHold, reiterated$44−22.2%
Sep 18J.P. MorganHold, reiterated$70+23.8%
+1.4%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
−6.6%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

CarMax seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, CarMax averaged −6.6% across the last 5 years, rising in 0 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−6.4%2021−4.8%2022−14.4%2023−4.0%2024−0.4%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days−4.0%2 of 5
Next 10 trading days−5.4%0 of 5
Next 15 trading days−7.6%0 of 5
Next 20 trading days−6.6%0 of 5
Next 30 trading days−5.4%2 of 5

For scale, KMX’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 7.9%.

CarMax market cap and key statistics

CarMax’s market cap is $8.03B, with a P/E ratio of 35.7 and revenue of $28.20B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$8.03B
P/E ratio
35.7
Forward P/E
21.6
EPS, TTM
$1.58
Gekko Fair Value
$55.77

Trading

Volume
6.36M
Avg volume, 20 days
2.38M
52-week high
$65.28
52-week low
$30.26
Shares outstanding
141.9M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$28.20B
Profit margin
0.8%
Return on equity
3.6%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−5.2%

Risk and income

Beta
1.17
Typical daily move
±4%
Typical 20-day move
±7.9%

CarMax stock news this week

Coverage of CarMax this week reads negative: 5 positive, 6 neutral and 11 negative headlines.

News sentiment negative

CarMax peers

CarMax’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
WMTWalmart+0.8%Neutral5.0% below
COSTCostco Wholesale−0.2%Neutral12.6% above
TGTTarget+1.2%Neutral10.7% above
ORLYO'Reilly Automotive+0.8%Neutral6.0% below
CVNACarvana−5.0%Accumulation18.8% below
AZOAutoZone+1.2%Neutral28.3% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

CarMax stock FAQ

What is CarMax’s market cap?

CarMax’s market cap is $8.03B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $56.55, with 141.9M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 35.7.

What is the CarMax stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for CarMax is $56.54, 0.0% from the last close. Of the 7 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 1 rate it a buy, 6 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is CarMax stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate CarMax is about fair value: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $56.55 is 1.4% above Gekko Fair Value of $55.77. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does CarMax report earnings next?

CarMax is expected to report on Sep 29, 2026, before the market opens (today). Analysts expect earnings of $0.73 per share on revenue of $7.09B. CarMax beat the earnings estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports, moving 9.3% on average across the report.

What is CarMax’s 52-week high and low?

CarMax’s 52-week high is $65.28 and its 52-week low is $30.26; it closed at $56.55 on Sep 28, 2026, +24.0% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $155.98 on Nov 8, 2021.

Is CarMax stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex and smart money), 2 as mixed (trend and fair value) and 2 as headwinds (earnings risk and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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