NYSE: TGT

Target (TGT) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Nov 4 close

$163.10+8.70 (+5.6%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryNov 4 close

Target shares rallied this week alongside Walmart and Dollar Tree after Democrats swept Congress, with analysts pointing to potential affordability support, targeted fiscal programs, and less tariff pressure as tailwinds for retailers. Separately, coverage continues to weigh Target's recovery under CEO Michael Fiddelke, noting a raised sales outlook alongside lingering questions about profit quality and holiday execution, while comparisons with Amazon highlight concerns about discretionary spending and competitive pressure. Dividend-focused commentary also contrasted Target's payout with Walmart's.

TGT closed at $163.10, up 5.6%, sitting above both its 50-day average of $156.69 and 200-day average of $134.74, with the shorter average above the longer one. The stock's one-month return stands at 5.7% and its six-month return at 25.3%, with the 52-week range spanning $83.44 to $170.75. The GekkoIndex reads 52.3, placing TGT in the Neutral zone, down from a higher reading five days prior. Price sits 8.6% above the Gekko Fair Value of $150.2.

Target reports fiscal third-quarter earnings on 18 November, 13 days away and within a typical 20-trading-day holding window; its last report on 19 August beat estimates, with EPS of $2.46 versus $2.30 expected, producing a 3.8% reaction, and the company has beaten estimates in 6 of 8 recent quarters. Over the last 30 days, 2 unusual options signals appeared, with call premium of $4.6 million against put premium of $551,975. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged -0.1% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them, a pattern worth noting ahead of the earnings date.

Written by AI from the Nov 4, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

Target price vs fair value

$163.10$150.20Nov ’25May ’26Nov ’26
Close $163.10200-day averageGekko Fair Value $150.20

Target quick facts

Market cap
$74.10B
P/E ratio
16.5
Forward P/E
16.7
EPS, TTM
$9.63
Revenue, TTM
$107.7B
Profit margin
4.1%
Dividend yield
2.95%
Beta
0.93
Volume
4.15M avg 3.83M
1-year return
+78.3%
Typical daily move
±3.1%
Typical 20-day move
±5.9%
50-day average
$156.69
200-day average
$134.74
Next earnings
Nov 18 before open
Shares outstanding
454.3M
52-week range
$83.44$170.75

Target swing-trade checklist

Target scores 2 supportive, 1 mixed and 3 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

2 supportive1 mixed3 headwinds

  • Trendsupportive

    Above 50 and 200-day

    Close $163.10 is above the 50-day ($156.69) and 200-day ($134.74) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexmixed

    52.3, Neutral

    Reading 52.3 is in the Neutral zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valueheadwind

    8.6% above

    Price is 8.6% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneysupportive

    Leans bullish

    Last 30 days: 2 unusual options signals.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 13 days

    Reports on Nov 18, 2026, 13 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalityheadwind

    −0.1% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −0.1% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Target stock chart and price history

Target closed at $163.10 on Nov 4, 2026, +78.3% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $83.44 to $170.75.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Target share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$80$100$120$140DecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct163.10

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
+5.7%
3 months
+10.9%
6 months
+25.3%
1 year
+78.3%
The full TGT chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open TGT in Gekko

Follow Target through every session

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About Target

Target runs a chain of general merchandise stores that stock everyday essentials alongside food, clothing, home goods, electronics and toys. Shoppers most often encounter the retailer through its long list of in-house labels, spanning apparel lines such as A New Day and Wild Fable, home brands like Threshold and Opalhouse, and grocery names including Good & Gather and Favorite Day, among many others carrying its own naming.

Much of what fills its shelves is sold under these proprietary brands rather than outside labels, covering categories from clothing and household basics to beauty, pantry staples and seasonal items. This mix lets the company offer goods across nearly every part of daily life to shoppers visiting its stores for general household and personal needs.

Target traces its start to George Draper Dayton, who founded the company in 1902, and it now operates out of Minneapolis, Minnesota. Its shares trade on the NYSE under the ticker TGT.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Retail trade
Industry
Specialty stores
Website
corporate.target.com

Target GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Target’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 52.3, in the Neutral zone, down 11 points over five sessions.

010052.3Neutral

Down 11 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.

Reading for Nov 4, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying46+0.6%+0.4%−0.8%+1.3%
Accumulation2170.0%−0.3%−1.4%−0.4%
Neutral (current zone)406+0.2%+0.6%+1.6%+2.1%
Distribution27−0.5%+1.3%+2.5%−0.2%
Selling1Too few readings yet

Average TGT share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.0% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the TGT price, zone by zone.Track TGT in Gekko

Is Target stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Target trades 8.6% above Gekko Fair Value of $150.20, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Target shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$150.20

Gekko Fair Value, Nov 4, 2026

8.6% Overvalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 9.0% above the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$150$154Aug 2026SepOctNov 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open TGT in Gekko

Target insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Target, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for TGT in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every TGT insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open TGT in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in TGT were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for TGT, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open TGT in Gekko

Buybacks

Target has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Aug 1, 2026
$3.00M
As a share of market cap
0.00%
Trailing four quarters
$492.0M

From company filings.

Unusual options activity last 30 days

2signals, 89% of the flagged premium in calls.

Latest: Bullish flow on Oct 23, $2.87M in unusual premium.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

1of the funds Gekko tracks holds TGT.

0added1opened0trimmed1sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko

Target earnings: next date and track record

Target reports on Nov 18, 2026, before the open (13 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.

6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±6.6%average move across the report
2 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−22.1%Nov ’24−3.5%Mar ’25−3.1%May ’25−7.9%Aug ’25−5.5%Nov ’25+6.1%Mar ’26−0.9%May ’26+3.8%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 19, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Target reported Q2 2026 results with traffic growth of 3.6% year-over-year, slightly accelerating on a 2-year basis versus Q1. The company completed its largest volume of in-store transitions in over a decade, overhauling nearly half of center store grocery layout and replacing 75% of decorative accessories assortment. Target has lowered prices on over 10,000 items in the past year while pursuing four strategic priorities: merchandising authority, guest experience, technology acceleration, and team development.
Guidance
Management expressed increasing confidence that ongoing investments will support continued top and bottom line growth. Full-year outlook and specific financial targets were not yet disclosed in this excerpt, with CFO Jim Lee expected to provide detailed guidance later in the call.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 19, 2026$2.46
est $2.30
+7.0%$26.54B
est $26.13B
+1.6%+3.8%
May 20, 2026$1.71
est $1.46
+17.1%$25.44B
est $24.66B
+3.2%−0.9%
Mar 3, 2026$2.44
est $2.16
+13.0%$30.45B
est $30.46B
0.0%+6.1%
Nov 19, 2025$1.78
est $1.71
+4.1%$25.27B
est $25.32B
−0.2%−5.5%
Aug 20, 2025$2.05
est $2.04
+0.5%$25.21B
est $24.94B
+1.1%−7.9%
May 21, 2025$1.30
est $1.56
−16.7%$23.85B
est $24.14B
−1.2%−3.1%
Mar 4, 2025$2.41
est $2.27
+6.2%$30.92B
est $30.76B
+0.5%−3.5%
Nov 20, 2024$1.85
est $2.30
−19.6%$25.67B
est $25.87B
−0.8%−22.1%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Target stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Target is $163.35, +0.2% from the last close, from 28 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$163.35consensus 12-month target, +0.2% from the last close
Low $140High $200
Buy12
Hold14
Sell2

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 28 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Nov 3BernsteinHold, maintained$154−5.6%
Nov 3OppenheimerBuy, maintained$180+10.4%
Oct 13Evercore ISIHold, maintained$165+1.2%
Oct 13BernsteinHold, maintained$154−5.6%
Oct 9Bank of America SecuritiesSell, maintained$140−14.2%
+1.6%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
−0.1%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.1%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Target seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Nov 4, Target averaged −0.1% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−4.9%2021−2.9%2022+19.7%2023−12.4%2024+1.0%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+1.4%3 of 5
Next 10 trading days+3.3%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days−0.4%2 of 5
Next 20 trading days−0.1%2 of 5
Next 30 trading days−0.9%2 of 5

For scale, TGT’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5.9%.

Target market cap and key statistics

Target’s market cap is $74.10B, with a P/E ratio of 16.5 and revenue of $107.7B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$74.10B
P/E ratio
16.5
Forward P/E
16.7
EPS, TTM
$9.63
Gekko Fair Value
$150.20

Trading

Volume
4.15M
Avg volume, 20 days
3.83M
52-week high
$170.75
52-week low
$83.44
Shares outstanding
454.3M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$107.7B
Profit margin
4.1%
Return on equity
26.4%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+100.5%

Risk and income

Beta
0.93
Typical daily move
±3.1%
Typical 20-day move
±5.9%
Dividend yield
2.95%

Target peers

Target’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
WMTWalmart+1.7%Neutral1.7% above
COSTCostco Wholesale+0.9%Neutral24.7% above
CVNACarvana+5.9%Distribution8.0% above
ORLYO'Reilly Automotive+0.4%Neutral0.9% below
AZOAutoZone+1.5%Neutral13.6% below
WSMWilliams-Sonoma+3.2%Neutral35.5% above

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

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Target stock FAQ

What is Target’s market cap?

Target’s market cap is $74.10B at the Nov 4, 2026 close of $163.10, with 454.3M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 16.5.

What is the Target stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Target is $163.35, +0.2% from the last close. Of the 28 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 12 rate it a buy, 14 a hold and 2 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Target stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Target is overvalued: the Nov 4, 2026 close of $163.10 is 8.6% above Gekko Fair Value of $150.20. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Target report earnings next?

Target is expected to report on Nov 18, 2026, before the market opens (13 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $2.06 per share on revenue of $26.40B. Target beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 6.6% on average across the report.

What is Target’s 52-week high and low?

Target’s 52-week high is $170.75 and its 52-week low is $83.44; it closed at $163.10 on Nov 4, 2026, +78.3% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $268.98 on Nov 15, 2021.

Is Target stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (trend and smart money), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 3 as headwinds (fair value, earnings risk and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

Is there unusual options activity in Target?

Gekko flagged 2 unusual options signals in Target over the last 30 days, with $4.57M of flagged premium in calls and $552K in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Oct 23, 2026 with $2.87M in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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