Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for AAP in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every AAP insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open AAP in Gekko
NYSE: AAP
Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$41.66−0.64 (−1.5%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeThis week's news features continued store expansion, with new Advance Auto Parts locations opened in Little River, South Carolina and Wyomissing, Pennsylvania, each accompanied by donations to local technical education programs. On the analyst side, Evercore ISI cut its price target on AAP from $50.00 to $45.00 while maintaining an "In Line" rating, a revision that comes despite improved second-quarter adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow, even as revenue remained flat. Separately, a twenty-firm sell-side consensus rates the stock "Hold," with an average 12-month price target of $48.94, following EPS of $1.03 that exceeded estimates while revenue of $2.0 billion fell short.
AAP closed at $41.66, down 1.5%, sitting below both its 50-day average of $45.89 and its 200-day average of $51.49, with the 50-day below the 200-day. The GekkoIndex reads 58.8, placing the stock in the Neutral zone. Price stands 8.2% above the Gekko Fair Value of $38.51.
Earnings are scheduled for 5 November 2026, before the open, 24 days away and inside a typical 20-trading-day holding period; the prior report showed EPS of $1.03 against an estimate of $0.81, with a 5.7% reaction, and 7 beats in the last 8 quarters. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the respective 90-day and 30-day windows. Seasonality from this point has averaged a 5.8% move over the next 20 trading days across 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Advance Auto Parts price vs fair value
Close $41.66200-day averageGekko Fair Value $38.51
Advance Auto Parts quick facts
- Market cap
- $2.51B
- P/E ratio
- 23.6
- Forward P/E
- 10.8
- EPS, TTM
- $1.80
- Revenue, TTM
- $8.62B
- Profit margin
- 1%
- Dividend yield
- 2.43%
- Beta
- 1.09
- Volume
- 1.27M avg 1.71M
- 1-year return
- −17.2%
- Typical daily move
- ±3.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±7.9%
- 50-day average
- $45.89
- 200-day average
- $51.49
- Next earnings
- Nov 5 before open
- Shares outstanding
- 60.40M
Advance Auto Parts swing-trade checklist
Advance Auto Parts scores 1 supportive, 1 mixed and 3 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
1 supportive1 mixed3 headwinds
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $41.66 is below the 50-day ($45.89) and 200-day ($51.49) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
58.8, Neutral
Reading 58.8 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valueheadwind
8.2% above
Price is 8.2% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 24 days
Reports on Nov 5, 2026, 24 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+5.8% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +5.8% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Advance Auto Parts stock chart and price history
Advance Auto Parts closed at $41.66 on Oct 12, 2026, −17.2% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $37.89 to $65.20.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −6.8%
- 3 months
- −24.8%
- 6 months
- −26.1%
- 1 year
- −17.2%
The full AAP chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open AAP in Gekko
Follow Advance Auto Parts through every session
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About Advance Auto Parts
Advance Auto Parts sells replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance supplies for cars, vans, SUVs and light and heavy trucks. Its shelves cover brakes, engine components, electrical and ignition parts, cooling and heating systems, chassis parts, clutches and exhaust systems, along with tools, interior and exterior add-ons, lighting, performance pieces, chemicals and cleaning products. It also carries the oils, lubricants, additives and filters needed for routine engine and transmission upkeep, and offers in-store services such as battery and wiper fitting, diagnostic scanning, electrical testing, recycling of batteries and oil, and tool loans.
Its customer base includes both professional mechanics and do-it-yourself drivers, served through physical stores and an online channel. The company runs several store banners, including its namesake Advance Auto Parts, Autopart International, Carquest, and Worldpac branches, and it also supplies independently owned Carquest stores operating outside the United States.
The company was founded in 1929 and is headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker AAP.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Retail trade
- Industry
- Specialty stores
- Website
- shop.advanceautoparts.com
Advance Auto Parts GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Advance Auto Parts’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 58.8, in the Neutral zone, down 6.5 points over five sessions.
58.8Neutral
Down 6.5 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 65 | +1.4% | +3.6% |
| Accumulation | 247 | +0.7% | +2.4% |
| Neutral (current zone) | 327 | −1.0% | −1.8% |
| Distribution | 32 | +1.7% | −5.5% |
| Selling | 11 | +2.2% | −4.8% |
Average AAP share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the AAP price, zone by zone.Track AAP in Gekko
Is Advance Auto Parts stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Advance Auto Parts trades 8.2% above Gekko Fair Value of $38.51, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Advance Auto Parts shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$38.51
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
8.2% Overvalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 0.2% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open AAP in Gekko
Advance Auto Parts insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Advance Auto Parts, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in AAP were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for AAP, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open AAP in Gekko
Buybacks
Advance Auto Parts has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jan 3, 2026
- $4.00M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.16%
- Trailing four quarters
- $8.00M
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Dec 31
0of the funds Gekko tracks hold AAP.
0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Advance Auto Parts earnings: next date and track record
Advance Auto Parts reports on Nov 5, 2026, before the open (24 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 5, 2026
Expected before the open, 24 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.80
- Revenue estimate
- $2.04B
7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±15.8%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | $1.03 est $0.81 | — | +5.7% |
| May 21, 2026 | $0.77 est $0.44 | $2.61B est $2.05B | +13.1% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | $0.86 est $0.42 | $1.97B est $1.95B | −2.5% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | $0.92 est $0.76 | $2.00B est $1.95B | −14.5% |
| Aug 14, 2025 | $0.69 est $0.59 | $2.01B est $1.98B | −8.0% |
| May 22, 2025 | −$0.22 est −$0.81 | $2.58B est $1.97B | +55.4% |
| Feb 26, 2025 | −$1.18 est −$1.23 | $2.00B est $2.53B | −19.4% |
| Nov 14, 2024 | −$0.04 est $0.44 | $2.15B est $2.62B | −7.9% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Advance Auto Parts stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Advance Auto Parts is $49.95, +19.9% from the last close, from 17 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$49.95consensus 12-month target, +19.9% from the last close
Now $41.66Avg $49.95
Low $40High $70
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 17 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | Evercore ISI | $45 | +8.0% |
| Sep 28 | Wells Fargo | $50 | +20.0% |
| Sep 9 | Truist Financial | — | — |
| Aug 25 | Truist Financial | — | — |
| Aug 21 | UBS | $47 | +12.8% |
−1.8%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+5.8%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.7%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Advance Auto Parts seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Advance Auto Parts averaged +5.8% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +4.2% | 5 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +3.2% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +1.8% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +5.8% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +0.3% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, AAP’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 7.9%.
Advance Auto Parts market cap and key statistics
Advance Auto Parts’s market cap is $2.51B, with a P/E ratio of 23.6 and revenue of $8.62B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $2.51B
- P/E ratio
- 23.6
- Forward P/E
- 10.8
- EPS, TTM
- $1.80
- Gekko Fair Value
- $38.51
Trading
- Volume
- 1.27M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 1.71M
- 52-week high
- $65.20
- 52-week low
- $37.89
- Shares outstanding
- 60.40M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $8.62B
- Profit margin
- 1%
- Return on equity
- 4.9%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +260.0%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 1.09
- Typical daily move
- ±3.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±7.9%
- Dividend yield
- 2.43%
Advance Auto Parts stock news this week
Coverage of Advance Auto Parts this week reads neutral: 3 positive, 3 neutral and 3 negative headlines.
- Advance Auto Parts Opens Second Little River StoreAftermarketNews, Oct 12
- Advance Auto Parts opens new store in BerksReading Eagle, Oct 10
- Will Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report?Zacks Investment Research, Oct 8
- Evercore cut target for Advance Auto Parts stock to USD 45AD HOC NEWS, Oct 8
- Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP) Stock Rated "Hold" by Sell-Side BrokeragesMarketBeat, Oct 8
- Evercore Maintains Advance Auto Parts(AAP.US) With Hold Rating, Cuts Target Price to $45Moomoo, Oct 7
Advance Auto Parts peers
Advance Auto Parts’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| WMTWalmart | Neutral | 2.5% below |
| COSTCostco Wholesale | Neutral | 16.4% above |
| ORLYO'Reilly Automotive | Neutral | 4.7% below |
| TGTTarget | Accumulation | 5.7% above |
| CVNACarvana | Accumulation | 19.7% below |
| AZOAutoZone | Neutral | 28.5% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Advance Auto Parts stock FAQ
What is Advance Auto Parts’s market cap?
Advance Auto Parts’s market cap is $2.51B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $41.66, with 60.40M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 23.6.
What is the Advance Auto Parts stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Advance Auto Parts is $49.95, +19.9% from the last close. Of the 17 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 1 rate it a buy, 14 a hold and 2 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Advance Auto Parts stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Advance Auto Parts is overvalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $41.66 is 8.2% above Gekko Fair Value of $38.51. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Advance Auto Parts report earnings next?
Advance Auto Parts is expected to report on Nov 5, 2026, before the market opens (24 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.80 per share on revenue of $2.04B. Advance Auto Parts beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 15.8% on average across the report.
What is Advance Auto Parts’s 52-week high and low?
Advance Auto Parts’s 52-week high is $65.20 and its 52-week low is $37.89; it closed at $41.66 on Oct 12, 2026, −17.2% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $244.55 on Jan 5, 2022.
Is Advance Auto Parts stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 1 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (seasonality), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 3 as headwinds (trend, fair value and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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