Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for MCD in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every MCD insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MCD in Gekko
NYSE: MCD
McDonald's (MCD) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Nov 4 close
$280.22+17.18 (+6.5%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryNov 4 closeMcDonald's reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $3.57, ahead of the $3.38 estimate, with profitability up 11% year-over-year and franchised margins cited as a driver. Consolidated revenue came in at $7.16 billion, below expectations, as U.S. comparable sales slipped 0.2%, the chain's first domestic decline in over a year, even as global comparable sales grew 1.5%. The stock rose 5% on the print as investors focused on the earnings beat rather than the sales dip, with peers Chipotle and Starbucks also higher. Separately, McDonald's is testing a new value menu and plans new value bundles next year as part of a broader push amid fast-food discount competition.
Shares close at $280.22, up 6.5%, sitting between the 50-day average of $248.22 and the 200-day average of $282.63, with a one-month return of 20.6% but a one-year return of -5.4%. The GekkoIndex reads 39.1, placing the stock in the Distribution zone, down from a five-point change of -13.8. Price sits 2.6% above Gekko Fair Value of $273.04.
No confirmed earnings date currently appears on the calendar. Over the last 90 days Congress recorded 3 buys and 0 sells, while the last 30 days show 1 unusual options signal, with put premium of $5,196,240 against call premium of $1,114,177. Seasonality from this point has averaged a 1.5% gain over the next 20 trading days across 5 years, rising in 3 of them. Analyst consensus among 25 firms stands at 14 buy, 10 hold, 1 sell, with a consensus target of $291.75.
Written by AI from the Nov 4, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
McDonald's price vs fair value
Close $280.22200-day averageGekko Fair Value $273.04
McDonald's quick facts
- Market cap
- $198.3B
- P/E ratio
- 21.6
- Forward P/E
- 18.7
- EPS, TTM
- $12.31
- Revenue, TTM
- $27.70B
- Profit margin
- 31.7%
- Dividend yield
- 2.85%
- Beta
- 0.43
- Volume
- 11.49M avg 5.80M
- 1-year return
- −5.4%
- Typical daily move
- ±2.1%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±3.2%
- 50-day average
- $248.22
- 200-day average
- $282.63
- Next earnings
- —
- Shares outstanding
- 707.6M
McDonald's swing-trade checklist
McDonald's scores 1 supportive, 3 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
1 supportive3 mixed1 headwind
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $280.22 sits between the 50-day ($248.22) and 200-day ($282.63) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexheadwind
39.1, Distribution
Reading 39.1 is in the Distribution zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuemixed
2.6% above
Price is within 5% of Gekko Fair Value (2.6% above).
See fair value - Smart moneymixed
Mixed
Last 90 days: Congress 3 buys / 0 sales. Last 30 days: 1 unusual options signal.
See smart money - Earnings riskno data
No data
No confirmed report date on the calendar.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+1.5% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +1.5% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
McDonald's stock chart and price history
McDonald's closed at $280.22 on Nov 4, 2026, −5.4% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $229.20 to $341.75.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +20.6%
- 3 months
- +1.4%
- 6 months
- −1.4%
- 1 year
- −5.4%
The full MCD chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open MCD in Gekko
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About McDonald's
McDonald's runs and licenses a widely recognized quick-service restaurant chain, serving customers across the United States and in markets around the world. Its menu centers on staples such as burgers and cheeseburgers, along with chicken sandwiches and nuggets, lighter items like wraps, fries and salads, and a breakfast lineup that includes biscuit and bagel sandwiches, breakfast burritos, hotcakes and oatmeal. Rounding out the offering are desserts such as milkshakes, sundaes and soft-serve, baked goods, and a range of soft drinks and coffee.
The business works through a mix of company-operated and licensed locations, extending its reach through both formats to serve everyday diners looking for quick meals. As of the end of 2021, the network totaled 40,031 restaurants worldwide.
McDonald's traces its founding back to 1940 and keeps its corporate headquarters in Chicago, Illinois. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker MCD.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer services
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Website
- mcdonalds.com
McDonald's GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
McDonald's’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 39.1, in the Distribution zone, down 13.8 points over five sessions.
39.1Distribution
Down 13.8 points over five sessions, from the Neutral zone.
Reading for Nov 4, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 58 | 0.0% | +1.1% | ||
| Accumulation | 252 | +0.1% | −0.6% | ||
| Neutral | 356 | −0.1% | −0.4% | ||
| Distribution (current zone) | 27 | −1.5% | −2.4% | ||
| Selling | 4 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average MCD share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Distribution readings averaged +1.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Distribution zone: Institutions potentially offloading. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the MCD price, zone by zone.Track MCD in Gekko
Is McDonald's stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
McDonald's trades 2.6% above Gekko Fair Value of $273.04, so the shares are about fair value on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what McDonald's shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$273.04
Gekko Fair Value, Nov 4, 2026
2.6% above fair value · About fair value
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 10.9% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open MCD in Gekko
McDonald's insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for McDonald's, and members of Congress disclosed 3 purchases and 0 sales, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
3trades disclosed: 3 purchases and 0 sales.
| Member | Amount | Disclosed |
|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna House, CA, purchase | $1,001 - $15,000 | Oct 9 traded Sep 25 |
| Ro Khanna House, CA, purchase | $15,001 - $50,000 | Oct 9 traded Sep 11 |
| Scott Mr Franklin House, FL, purchase | $1,001 - $15,000 | Sep 18 traded Aug 26 |
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Buybacks
McDonald's has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $855.0M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.43%
- Trailing four quarters
- $2.33B
From company filings.
Unusual options activity last 30 days
1signal, 18% of the flagged premium in calls.
Latest: Bearish flow on Oct 16, $6.31M in unusual premium.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
1of the funds Gekko tracks holds MCD.
0added0opened1trimmed1sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko
McDonald's earnings: next date and track record
McDonald's beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 2.8% on average across the report.
6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±2.8%average move across the report
4 of 7reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | $3.57 est $3.38 | $7.16B est $7.28B | — |
| Aug 4, 2026 | $3.38 est $3.32 | $7.10B est $7.13B | +3.3% |
| May 7, 2026 | $2.83 est $2.74 | $6.52B est $6.47B | −2.9% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | $3.12 est $3.05 | $7.01B est $6.84B | +1.9% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | $3.22 est $3.33 | $7.08B est $7.08B | −0.3% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $3.19 est $3.14 | $6.84B est $6.70B | +3.1% |
| May 1, 2025 | $2.67 est $2.66 | $5.96B est $6.10B | −2.4% |
| Feb 10, 2025 | $2.83 est $2.85 | $6.39B est $6.45B | +5.4% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
McDonald's stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for McDonald's is $291.75, +4.1% from the last close, from 25 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$291.75consensus 12-month target, +4.1% from the last close
Now $280.22Avg $291.75
Low $230High $343
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 25 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | TD Cowen | $285 | +1.7% |
| Nov 4 | Robert W. Baird | $275 | −1.9% |
| Nov 4 | Oppenheimer | $310 | +10.6% |
| Nov 4 | Gordon Haskett Capital Corporation | $305 | +8.8% |
| Nov 3 | Bernstein | $250 | −10.8% |
−2.4%average 20-day move after past Distribution readings
+1.5%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.1%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
McDonald's seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Nov 4, McDonald's averaged +1.5% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +0.6% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +0.7% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +1.6% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +1.5% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +3.2% | 4 of 5 |
For scale, MCD’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 3.2%.
McDonald's market cap and key statistics
McDonald's’s market cap is $198.3B, with a P/E ratio of 21.6 and revenue of $27.70B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $198.3B
- P/E ratio
- 21.6
- Forward P/E
- 18.7
- EPS, TTM
- $12.31
- Gekko Fair Value
- $273.04
Trading
- Volume
- 11.49M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 5.80M
- 52-week high
- $341.75
- 52-week low
- $229.20
- Shares outstanding
- 707.6M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $27.70B
- Profit margin
- 31.7%
- Return on equity
- 0%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +5.7%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.43
- Typical daily move
- ±2.1%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±3.2%
- Dividend yield
- 2.85%
McDonald's stock news this week
Coverage of McDonald's this week reads positive: 5 positive, 2 neutral and 2 negative headlines.
- McDonald's Beats Earnings, but US Sales Tell Another StoryTradingView, Nov 4
- McDonald's Rises 5% as Earnings Beat Outweighs U.S. Sales Dip; Chipotle Climbs 4%, Starbucks Gains 3%24/7 Wall St., Nov 4
- McDonald's Q3 Earnings Beat on Franchised Margins, Revenues MissTradingView, Nov 4
- McDonald's tests new value menu as fast-food discount wars heat upMarket Watch, Nov 4
- McDonald's to add new value bundles next yearFast Company, Nov 4
- McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptSeeking Alpha, Nov 4
McDonald's peers
McDonald's’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| SBUXStarbucks | Neutral | 27.4% above |
| YUMYum! Brands | Distribution | 13.8% below |
| CMGChipotle Mexican Grill | Neutral | 6.9% above |
| QSRRestaurant Brands International | Neutral | 31.7% below |
| DRIDarden Restaurants | Neutral | 3.9% below |
| YUMCYum China | Distribution | 40.9% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
McDonald's stock FAQ
What is McDonald's’s market cap?
McDonald's’s market cap is $198.3B at the Nov 4, 2026 close of $280.22, with 707.6M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 21.6.
What is the McDonald's stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for McDonald's is $291.75, +4.1% from the last close. Of the 25 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 14 rate it a buy, 10 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is McDonald's stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate McDonald's is about fair value: the Nov 4, 2026 close of $280.22 is 2.6% above Gekko Fair Value of $273.04. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
What is McDonald's’s 52-week high and low?
McDonald's’s 52-week high is $341.75 and its 52-week low is $229.20; it closed at $280.22 on Nov 4, 2026, −5.4% over the past year.
Is McDonald's stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 1 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (seasonality), 3 as mixed (trend, fair value and smart money) and 1 as a headwind (gekkoindex). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
Is there unusual options activity in McDonald's?
Gekko flagged 1 unusual options signal in McDonald's over the last 30 days, with $1.11M of flagged premium in calls and $5.20M in puts. The latest, bearish flow, was on Oct 16, 2026 with $6.31M in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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