Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for MCD in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every MCD insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MCD in Gekko
NYSE: MCD
McDonald's (MCD) Stock Analysis & Forecast
$248.24−0.24 (−0.1%)
Close on Sep 18, 2026. Page updated Sep 19, 9:15 pm ET.
Gekko Brief
AI summaryMcDonald's closes at $248.24, down slightly on the day and sitting below both its 50-day average of $265.40 and its 200-day average of $293.48, with the shorter average also under the longer one. The stock is near its 52-week low of $247.65, having fallen 7.2% over one month, 10.9% over three months, and 18.6% over the past year. The GekkoIndex reads 71.3, placing it in the Buying zone, while price sits 13% below the Gekko Fair Value estimate of $285.26.
Coverage this week centers on McDonald's recent slide alongside its 50th consecutive annual dividend increase, which has pushed the yield to a six-year high near 3% even as shares trade at their lowest forward multiple in over a decade. Commentary points to slowing traffic, weaker comparable sales, and execution issues tied to value-menu positioning, alongside inflation and fuel-cost pressure on consumers. Separately, Nykredit A/S disclosed a new position of 239,500 shares valued at approximately $64.7 million, and Representative C. Scott Franklin reported a purchase in the $1,001–$15,000 range in his Fidelity Roth IRA.
Looking ahead, McDonald's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 November 2026, 45 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day hold. Over the last 90 days, Congress recorded 1 buy and 0 sells, and the last 30 days show 1 unusual options signal, with put premium of $13.8 million against call premium of $1.8 million. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged -0.7% over five years, rising in 3 of them, a mixed backdrop worth noting alongside the current fair-value gap.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 20, 2026 from the data above.
Price vs fair value
Close $248.24200-day averageGekko Fair Value $285.26
Key stats
- Market cap
- $176.4B
- P/E ratio
- 20.2
- Forward P/E
- 17.8
- EPS, TTM
- $12.30
- Revenue, TTM
- $27.70B
- Profit margin
- 31.7%
- Dividend yield
- 2.96%
- Beta
- 0.41
- Volume
- 9.32M avg 4.72M
- 1-year return
- −18.6%
- Typical daily move
- ±1.5%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±3%
- 50-day average
- $265.40
- 200-day average
- $293.48
- Next earnings
- Nov 4 before open
- Shares outstanding
- 707.6M
McDonald's swing-trade checklist
McDonald's scores 3 supportive, 2 mixed and 1 headwind across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive2 mixed1 headwind
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $248.24 is below the 50-day ($265.40) and 200-day ($293.48) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
71.3, Buying
Reading 71.3 is in the Buying zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
13.0% below
Price is 13% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneymixed
Mixed
Last 90 days: Congress 1 buy / 0 sales. Last 30 days: 1 unusual options signal.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 45 days
Next report Nov 4, 2026, 45 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitymixed
−0.7% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −0.7% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
McDonald's stock chart and price history
McDonald's closed at $248.24 on Sep 18, 2026, −18.6% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $247.65 to $341.75.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −7.2%
- 3 months
- −10.9%
- 6 months
- −19.8%
- 1 year
- −18.6%
The full MCD chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open MCD in Gekko
Follow McDonald's through every session
Put MCD on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.
Track MCD in GekkoFree for 7 days. No credit card required.
About McDonald's
McDonald's runs and licenses a widely recognized quick-service restaurant chain, serving customers across the United States and in markets around the world. Its menu centers on staples such as burgers and cheeseburgers, along with chicken sandwiches and nuggets, lighter items like wraps, fries and salads, and a breakfast lineup that includes biscuit and bagel sandwiches, breakfast burritos, hotcakes and oatmeal. Rounding out the offering are desserts such as milkshakes, sundaes and soft-serve, baked goods, and a range of soft drinks and coffee.
The business works through a mix of company-operated and licensed locations, extending its reach through both formats to serve everyday diners looking for quick meals. As of the end of 2021, the network totaled 40,031 restaurants worldwide.
McDonald's traces its founding back to 1940 and keeps its corporate headquarters in Chicago, Illinois. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker MCD.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer services
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Website
- mcdonalds.com
McDonald's GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
McDonald's’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 71.3, in the Buying zone, up 1.1 points over five sessions.
71.3Buying
Up 1.1 points over five sessions.
Reading for Sep 18, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying (current zone) | 45 | +0.5% | +0.6% | ||
| Accumulation | 237 | +0.1% | 0.0% | ||
| Neutral | 349 | −0.2% | −0.3% | ||
| Distribution | 27 | −1.5% | −2.4% | ||
| Selling | 4 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average MCD share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Buying readings averaged +3.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Buying zone: Smart money likely accumulating heavily. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the MCD price, zone by zone.Track MCD in Gekko
Is McDonald's stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
McDonald's trades 13.0% below Gekko Fair Value of $285.26, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what McDonald's shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$285.26
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 19, 2026
13.0% Undervalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open MCD in Gekko
McDonald's insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for McDonald's, and members of Congress disclosed 1 purchase and 0 sales, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
1trade disclosed: 1 purchase and 0 sales.
| Member | Amount | Disclosed |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Mr Franklin House, FL, purchase | $1,001 - $15,000 | Sep 18 traded Aug 26 |
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Buybacks
McDonald's has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $855.0M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.48%
- Trailing four quarters
- $2.33B
From company filings.
Unusual options activity last 30 days
1signal, 12% of the flagged premium in calls.
Latest: Bullish flow on Sep 5, $15.68M in unusual premium.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
1of the funds Gekko tracks holds MCD.
0added0opened1trimmed1sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko
McDonald's earnings: next date and track record
McDonald's reports on Nov 4, 2026, before the open (45 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 4, 2026
Expected before the open, 45 days away
- EPS estimate
- $3.39
- Revenue estimate
- $7.32B
6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±2.6%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 4, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- McDonald's Q2 2026 system-wide sales grew 4% in constant currency, driven by new unit openings. Global comparable sales rose 1.3% across all segments. U.S. comp sales disappointed at 0.8%, below expectations, due to inconsistent execution of value offerings and operational complexity. Loyalty platform reached 220 million active users; delivery generates $20B+ in annual system-wide sales. Management cited execution failures, not strategy, as the core issue.
- Guidance
- Management previewed an Investor Day in September to outline next strategic phase dubbed McDonald's NEXT. No specific revenue or EPS targets were provided in this excerpt. Leadership changes in the U.S. market signal operational refocus to improve execution consistency.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | $3.38 est $3.32 | $7.10B est $7.13B | +3.3% |
| May 7, 2026 | $2.83 est $2.74 | $6.52B est $6.47B | −2.9% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | $3.12 est $3.05 | $7.01B est $6.84B | +1.9% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | $3.22 est $3.33 | $7.08B est $7.08B | −0.3% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $3.19 est $3.14 | $6.84B est $6.70B | +3.1% |
| May 1, 2025 | $2.67 est $2.66 | $5.96B est $6.10B | −2.4% |
| Feb 10, 2025 | $2.83 est $2.85 | $6.39B est $6.45B | +5.4% |
| Oct 29, 2024 | $3.23 est $3.20 | $6.87B est $6.82B | −1.8% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
McDonald's stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for McDonald's is $312.84, +26.0% from the last close, from 25 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$312.84consensus 12-month target, +26.0% from the last close
Now $248.24Avg $312.84
Low $280High $390
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 25 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18 | Bernstein | $295 | +18.8% |
| Sep 17 | Citi | $310 | +24.9% |
| Sep 16 | BTIG | $350 | +41.0% |
| Sep 15 | Seaport Global | — | — |
| Sep 15 | Jefferies | $325 | +30.9% |
+0.6%average 20-day move after past Buying readings
−0.7%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±1.5%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
McDonald's seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 19, McDonald's averaged −0.7% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −0.3% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −2.3% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −2.5% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | −0.7% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +0.7% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, MCD’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 3%.
McDonald's market cap and key statistics
McDonald's’s market cap is $176.4B, with a P/E ratio of 20.2 and revenue of $27.70B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $176.4B
- P/E ratio
- 20.2
- Forward P/E
- 17.8
- EPS, TTM
- $12.30
- Gekko Fair Value
- $285.26
Trading
- Volume
- 9.32M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 4.72M
- 52-week high
- $341.75
- 52-week low
- $247.65
- Shares outstanding
- 707.6M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $27.70B
- Profit margin
- 31.7%
- Return on equity
- 0%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +5.7%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.41
- Typical daily move
- ±1.5%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±3%
- Dividend yield
- 2.96%
McDonald's stock news this week
Coverage of McDonald's this week reads neutral: 6 positive, 7 neutral and 1 negative headlines.
- McDonald's: Becoming A Dividend King Didn't Help The Price, But It's Still A Long-Term BuySeeking Alpha, Sep 19
- Nykredit A S Takes Position in McDonald's Corporation $MCDMarketBeat, Sep 19
- Rep. C. Scott Franklin Acquires McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD) StockMarketBeat, Sep 19
- Nykredit A S Takes Position in McDonald’s Corporation $MCDDefense World, Sep 19
- McDonald's: The Crowd Sold The King, I'm Underwriting The ThroneSeeking Alpha, Sep 19
- What’s Driving McDonald (NYSE:MCD) In The Bluechip Stocks Story?Kalkine Media, Sep 18
McDonald's peers
McDonald's’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| SBUXStarbucks | Buying | 11.9% above |
| CMGChipotle Mexican Grill | Accumulation | 3.1% below |
| YUMYum! Brands | Accumulation | 27.8% below |
| QSRRestaurant Brands International | Accumulation | 37.7% below |
| DRIDarden Restaurants | Accumulation | 23.3% below |
| ARMKAramark | Accumulation | 0.8% above |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
McDonald's stock FAQ
What is McDonald's’s market cap?
McDonald's’s market cap is $176.4B at the Sep 18, 2026 close of $248.24, with 707.6M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 20.2.
What is the McDonald's stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for McDonald's is $312.84, +26.0% from the last close. Of the 25 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 14 rate it a buy, 11 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is McDonald's stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate McDonald's is undervalued: the Sep 18, 2026 close of $248.24 is 13.0% below Gekko Fair Value of $285.26. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does McDonald's report earnings next?
McDonald's is expected to report on Nov 4, 2026, before the market opens (45 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $3.39 per share on revenue of $7.32B. McDonald's beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 2.6% on average across the report.
What is McDonald's’s 52-week high and low?
McDonald's’s 52-week high is $341.75 and its 52-week low is $247.65; it closed at $248.24 on Sep 18, 2026, −18.6% over the past year.
Is McDonald's stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and earnings risk), 2 as mixed (smart money and seasonality) and 1 as a headwind (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
Is there unusual options activity in McDonald's?
Gekko flagged 1 unusual options signal in McDonald's over the last 30 days, with $1.85M of flagged premium in calls and $13.83M in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Sep 5, 2026 with $15.68M in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.
How this page works
Prices and signals update after every US market close; the GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
See McDonald's the way Gekko members do
Every GekkoIndex reading, insider trade, options bet and Congress disclosure plotted on the chart, plus the 5,800-name screener and trade planning tools.
Join 1,349 other traders using Gekko
Start Your FREE 7 Day Trial → Every feature unlocked. No credit card required.