Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for CMG in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every CMG insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open CMG in Gekko
NYSE: CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Stock Analysis & Forecast
$33.43−0.08 (−0.2%)
Close on Sep 18, 2026. Page updated Sep 19, 9:15 pm ET.
Gekko Brief
AI summaryChipotle Mexican Grill closes at $33.43, down 0.2%, sitting between its 50-day average of $35.09 and 200-day average of $34.98. The GekkoIndex reads 67.7, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, and the gap to Gekko Fair Value of $34.49 stands at -3.1%. Over the past year the stock is down 15.7%, though it has posted gains of 2.9% over three months and 1.5% over six months.
This week's coverage centers on two threads: ongoing questions about the stock's 15% one-year decline amid cautious spending and margin pressure, alongside continued unit expansion with new locations opening in Tomball, central Vermont, and Elk Grove. Separately, Chipotle is piloting a food safety risk platform built on Palantir Foundry that scores individual restaurants using health inspection and employee illness data, following a summer marked by outbreak concerns. One report also cited a discounted cash flow view suggesting the stock is overvalued by 18% against a price of $33.68.
Chipotle's next earnings report is set for 28 October, 38 days away and outside a typical 20-trading-day hold; the prior quarter saw EPS of $0.33 against a $0.32 estimate with a 15% reaction. In the last 30 days, one unusual options signal appears, with call premium of $1,137,306 against put premium of $257,525. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged -1.2% over five years, rising in 2 of them. Analyst consensus stands at 21 buy and 4 hold ratings among 25 firms, with a consensus target of $43.86.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 20, 2026 from the data above.
Price vs fair value
Close $33.43200-day averageGekko Fair Value $34.49
Key stats
- Market cap
- $42.88B
- P/E ratio
- 31
- Forward P/E
- 24
- EPS, TTM
- $1.08
- Revenue, TTM
- $12.42B
- Profit margin
- 11.4%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 0.94
- Volume
- 22.53M avg 12.72M
- 1-year return
- −15.7%
- Typical daily move
- ±3.4%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±6.2%
- 50-day average
- $35.09
- 200-day average
- $34.98
- Next earnings
- Oct 28 after close
- Shares outstanding
- 1.27B
Chipotle Mexican Grill swing-trade checklist
Chipotle Mexican Grill scores 3 supportive, 2 mixed and 1 headwind across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive2 mixed1 headwind
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $33.43 sits between the 50-day ($35.09) and 200-day ($34.98) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
67.7, Accumulation
Reading 67.7 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuemixed
3.1% below
Price is within 5% of Gekko Fair Value (3.1% below).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 30 days: 1 unusual options signal.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 38 days
Next report Oct 28, 2026, 38 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalityheadwind
−1.2% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −1.2% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Chipotle Mexican Grill stock chart and price history
Chipotle Mexican Grill closed at $33.43 on Sep 18, 2026, −15.7% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $28.04 to $42.82.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −3.5%
- 3 months
- +2.9%
- 6 months
- +1.5%
- 1 year
- −15.7%
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About Chipotle Mexican Grill
Chipotle Mexican Grill runs and manages its own network of restaurants rather than relying on outside owners to operate them. The chain serves diners looking for Mexican-style food and has built its name around this company-run restaurant model.
Its business centers on the direct operation of restaurant locations, with the company itself handling daily running of the eateries under its brand. As of February 15, 2022, its footprint spanned roughly 3,000 locations, extending beyond the United States into Canada and several European countries including the United Kingdom, France, and Germany.
Chipotle Mexican Grill was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker CMG.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer services
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Website
- chipotle.com
Chipotle Mexican Grill GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Chipotle Mexican Grill’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 67.7, in the Accumulation zone, up 9.8 points over five sessions.
67.7Accumulation
Up 9.8 points over five sessions, from the Neutral zone.
Reading for Sep 18, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 58 | +0.9% | +3.7% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 204 | −0.1% | −0.4% | ||
| Neutral | 362 | −0.2% | −1.5% | ||
| Distribution | 34 | +0.8% | +2.9% | ||
| Selling | 4 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average CMG share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the CMG price, zone by zone.Track CMG in Gekko
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Chipotle Mexican Grill trades 3.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $34.49, so the shares are about fair value on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Chipotle Mexican Grill shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$34.49
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 19, 2026
3.1% below fair value · About fair value
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open CMG in Gekko
Chipotle Mexican Grill insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Chipotle Mexican Grill, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in CMG were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for CMG, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open CMG in Gekko
Buybacks
Chipotle Mexican Grill has been buying back its own shares.
- Latest authorization
- $1.30B, Jul 29, 2026
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $653.9M
- As a share of market cap
- 1.53%
- Trailing four quarters
- $2.78B
From company filings.
Unusual options activity last 30 days
1signal, 82% of the flagged premium in calls.
Latest: Bullish flow on Aug 22, $1.39M in unusual premium.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
0of the funds Gekko tracks hold CMG.
0added0opened0trimmed3sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko
Chipotle Mexican Grill earnings: next date and track record
Chipotle Mexican Grill reports on Oct 28, 2026, after the close (38 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 28, 2026
Expected after the close, 38 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.29
- Revenue estimate
- $3.28B
7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±8.6%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 29, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Chipotle reported solid second quarter fiscal 2026 results driven by transaction growth and early traction from its 'Recipe for Growth' initiatives. Revenue grew 9.3% to $3.3 billion, comparable restaurant sales increased 2.2% (transaction comp +1%), and digital sales reached $1.3 billion (38.3% of total). Restaurant-level margin decreased 220 basis points to 25.2%; adjusted diluted EPS was $0.33, flat year-over-year. Management highlighted the successful return of Chipotle Honey Chicken, strength from Cilantro Lime Sauce, a revamped Rewards program, targeted marketing, the high-efficiency equipment package (HEEP) rollout, and international partner expansion. They opened 101 new restaurants in the quarter (80 Chipotlanes) and plan continued rollout of HEEP to 2,000 restaurants by year-end and full system completion in 2027. Management raised full-year comparable sales guidance to low single-digit growth, but noted softer trends in late July tied partly to a ~200 bps industry cyclospora-related impact and tougher year-over-year comparisons in Q3. Management emphasized continued investments in menu innovation, digital, remodel pilots, and talent, while testing remodel refreshes in select restaurants and expanding partner-operated international development.
- Guidance
- Full-year comparable restaurant sales: low single-digit growth (raised). Q3 comparable restaurant sales: approximately +1% (assumes ~200 bps headwind from industry cyclospora issue persisting). Pricing: Q2 impact ~1.6%; Q3 pricing expected mid-2% range; full year expected near high end of prior 1%-2% range. HEEP rollout: 2,000 restaurants by year-end; full portfolio targeted in 2027. New openings: management cites ~350 company-operated openings/year as target cadence.
- Risks flagged
- Industry cyclospora outbreak impacting consumer traffic (~200 bps headwind noted), tougher year-over-year comparisons in Q3 due to prior year promotional activity, margin pressure from inflation (restaurant-level margin down 220 bps), uncertainty around the duration/impact of the cyclospora concern, execution risk and unproven ROI for remodel/refresh pilots, potential diminishing returns from repeated LTOs, friction in in-restaurant loyalty enrollment impacting adoption, and general consumer caution/softening in recent weeks.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | $0.33 est $0.32 | $3.35B est $3.33B | +15.0% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | $0.24 est $0.24 | $3.09B est $3.07B | +3.4% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | $0.25 est $0.24 | $2.98B est $2.96B | +3.7% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | $0.29 est $0.29 | $3.00B est $3.02B | −19.2% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | $0.33 est $0.33 | $3.06B est $3.11B | −12.7% |
| Apr 23, 2025 | $0.29 est $0.28 | $2.88B est $2.94B | +5.2% |
| Feb 4, 2025 | $0.25 est $0.25 | $2.85B est $2.85B | −1.5% |
| Oct 29, 2024 | $0.27 est $0.25 | $2.79B est $2.82B | −8.0% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Chipotle Mexican Grill stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Chipotle Mexican Grill is $43.86, +31.2% from the last close, from 25 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$43.86consensus 12-month target, +31.2% from the last close
Now $33.43Avg $43.86
Low $35High $53
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 25 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15 | Seaport Global | $35 | +4.7% |
| Sep 14 | Bank of America Securities | $53 | +58.5% |
| Sep 5 | Morgan Stanley | $39 | +16.7% |
| Sep 1 | Bank of America Securities | $53 | +58.5% |
| Aug 5 | TD Cowen | $44 | +31.6% |
−0.4%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
−1.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.4%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Chipotle Mexican Grill seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 19, Chipotle Mexican Grill averaged −1.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −1.8% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −2.6% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −4.1% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | −1.2% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | −7.4% | 1 of 5 |
For scale, CMG’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 6.2%.
Chipotle Mexican Grill market cap and key statistics
Chipotle Mexican Grill’s market cap is $42.88B, with a P/E ratio of 31 and revenue of $12.42B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $42.88B
- P/E ratio
- 31
- Forward P/E
- 24
- EPS, TTM
- $1.08
- Gekko Fair Value
- $34.49
Trading
- Volume
- 22.53M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 12.72M
- 52-week high
- $42.82
- 52-week low
- $28.04
- Shares outstanding
- 1.27B
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $12.42B
- Profit margin
- 11.4%
- Return on equity
- 49.6%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −1.3%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.94
- Typical daily move
- ±3.4%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±6.2%
Chipotle Mexican Grill stock news this week
Coverage of Chipotle Mexican Grill this week reads positive: 8 positive, 7 neutral and 4 negative headlines.
- CMG Stock Slips 15% in a Year: Can Growth Catalysts Spark a Rebound?Zacks Investment Research, Sep 18
- Is Most-Watched Stock Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) Worth Betting on Now?Zacks Investment Research, Sep 18
- Chipotle Mexican Grill opening in TomballCommunity Impact, Sep 17
- Chipotle Mexican Grill to open restaurant in central VermontWPTZ, Sep 17
- Chipotle Is Using Palantir to Score Food Safety Risk at Individual RestaurantsGadget Review, Sep 17
- Chipotle (CMG) Stock Could Be 18% Overvalued On Manager Expansion PlansYahoo! Finance Canada, Sep 17
Chipotle Mexican Grill peers
Chipotle Mexican Grill’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| MCDMcDonald's | Buying | 13.0% below |
| SBUXStarbucks | Buying | 11.9% above |
| YUMYum! Brands | Accumulation | 27.8% below |
| QSRRestaurant Brands International | Accumulation | 37.7% below |
| DRIDarden Restaurants | Accumulation | 23.3% below |
| ARMKAramark | Accumulation | 0.8% above |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Chipotle Mexican Grill stock FAQ
What is Chipotle Mexican Grill’s market cap?
Chipotle Mexican Grill’s market cap is $42.88B at the Sep 18, 2026 close of $33.43, with 1.27B shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 31.
What is the Chipotle Mexican Grill stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Chipotle Mexican Grill is $43.86, +31.2% from the last close. Of the 25 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 21 rate it a buy, 4 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Chipotle Mexican Grill is about fair value: the Sep 18, 2026 close of $33.43 is 3.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $34.49. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Chipotle Mexican Grill report earnings next?
Chipotle Mexican Grill is expected to report on Oct 28, 2026, after the market closes (38 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.29 per share on revenue of $3.28B. Chipotle Mexican Grill beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 8.6% on average across the report.
What is Chipotle Mexican Grill’s 52-week high and low?
Chipotle Mexican Grill’s 52-week high is $42.82 and its 52-week low is $28.04; it closed at $33.43 on Sep 18, 2026, −15.7% over the past year.
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, smart money and earnings risk), 2 as mixed (trend and fair value) and 1 as a headwind (seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
Is there unusual options activity in Chipotle Mexican Grill?
Gekko flagged 1 unusual options signal in Chipotle Mexican Grill over the last 30 days, with $1.14M of flagged premium in calls and $258K in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Aug 22, 2026 with $1.39M in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.
How this page works
Prices and signals update after every US market close; the GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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