NYSE: DRI

Darden Restaurants (DRI) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$197.02−2.73 (−1.4%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

Darden Restaurants shares fell after the fiscal first-quarter report, with the stock down 3.6% as Olive Garden growth came in slower than expected and revenue slightly missed expectations, even as overall sales growth continued and full-year guidance was reaffirmed. LongHorn Steakhouse was highlighted as a stronger performer within the portfolio. Coverage this week also compared Darden's dividend and free cash flow position against Starbucks, and included a bond profile detailing coupon and redemption terms, alongside routine director RSU grants.

The stock closes at $197.02, down 1.4%, sitting between its 50-day average of $211.61 and 200-day average of $203.77, a mixed trend picture. The GekkoIndex reads 68.3, placing Darden in the Accumulation zone. Price stands 26.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $268.29. Over the past month the stock has declined 6.7%, though it remains up 5.3% over the past year. The 52-week range spans $169.00 to $229.76.

The next earnings date falls on 17 December, 79 days out and outside a typical 20-trading-day hold. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the current windows. Seasonality is a headwind: over the past 5 years, the next 20 trading days from this point averaged a -1.4% return, rising in just 1 of those years. Analyst coverage from 21 firms shows 16 buy and 5 hold ratings, with a consensus target of $234.42 implying 19% upside.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

Darden Restaurants price vs fair value

$268.29$197.02Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $197.02200-day averageGekko Fair Value $268.29

Darden Restaurants quick facts

Market cap
$22.55B
P/E ratio
19.1
Forward P/E
18.9
EPS, TTM
$10.44
Revenue, TTM
$13.37B
Profit margin
8.9%
Dividend yield
2.95%
Beta
0.59
Volume
1.49M avg 1.31M
1-year return
+5.3%
Typical daily move
±2.8%
Typical 20-day move
±4.4%
50-day average
$211.61
200-day average
$203.77
Next earnings
Dec 17
Shares outstanding
113.5M
52-week range
$169.00$229.76

Darden Restaurants swing-trade checklist

Darden Restaurants scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $197.02 sits between the 50-day ($211.61) and 200-day ($203.77) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    68.3, Accumulation

    Reading 68.3 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    26.6% below

    Price is 26.6% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 79 days

    Next report Dec 17, 2026, 79 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalityheadwind

    −1.4% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −1.4% over 5 years, rising in 1 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Darden Restaurants stock chart and price history

Darden Restaurants closed at $197.02 on Sep 28, 2026, +5.3% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $169.00 to $229.76.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Darden Restaurants share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$180$220NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep197.02

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−6.7%
3 months
−4.2%
6 months
+2.4%
1 year
+5.3%
The full DRI chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open DRI in Gekko

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About Darden Restaurants

Darden Restaurants owns and runs full-service restaurants across the United States and Canada, serving diners through a group of well-known chains. It is most recognized for Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse, which together make up the largest share of its locations, alongside other brands such as Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen, Yard House, Capital Grille, Seasons 52, Bahama Breeze, Eddie V's Prime Seafood, and Capital Burger.

The company earns its revenue mainly by directly operating the majority of its restaurants, while a smaller number are run through franchise agreements covering brands including Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen, Capital Grille, and Bahama Breeze. Its customer base consists of restaurant patrons dining across its various concepts in both countries.

Darden Restaurants traces its origins to 1968 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker DRI.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Consumer services
Industry
Restaurants
Website
darden.com

Darden Restaurants GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Darden Restaurants’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 68.3, in the Accumulation zone, up 8.3 points over five sessions.

010068.3Accumulation

Up 8.3 points over five sessions.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying18+0.8%0.0%+0.5%+7.7%
Accumulation (current zone)225+0.8%+1.0%+1.4%+3.3%
Neutral3920.0%+0.4%+0.7%+1.9%
Distribution33−0.9%−0.9%+1.0%−1.6%
Selling4Too few readings yet

Average DRI share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the DRI price, zone by zone.Track DRI in Gekko

Is Darden Restaurants stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Darden Restaurants trades 26.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $268.29, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Darden Restaurants shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$268.29

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026

26.6% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open DRI in Gekko

Darden Restaurants insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Darden Restaurants, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for DRI in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every DRI insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open DRI in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in DRI were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for DRI, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open DRI in Gekko

Buybacks

Darden Restaurants has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Aug 30, 2026
$220.8M
As a share of market cap
0.98%
Trailing four quarters
$709.8M

From company filings.

Darden Restaurants earnings: next date and track record

Darden Restaurants reports on Dec 17, 2026 (79 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.

4 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±5.6%average move across the report
6 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+0.9%Jun ’24+6.9%Sep ’24+17.3%Dec ’24+6.3%Mar ’25−0.6%Jun ’25−11.5%Sep ’25+0.2%Dec ’25+1.2%Mar ’26

Last earnings call, Mar 19, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Darden generated $3.3 billion in total sales, up 5.9% year-over-year, with same-restaurant sales growth of 4.2%, outperforming the casual dining industry by 400+ basis points across its four largest brands. Olive Garden posted 3.2% comp sales growth supported by new lighter portion menu items under $15, while LongHorn Steakhouse led with 7.2% comp sales growth. All segments delivered positive same-restaurant sales with record guest satisfaction scores and historically high employee retention.
Guidance
Darden updated its fiscal 2026 financial outlook, with Q4 earnings scheduled for release June 25. Management expressed confidence in delivering planned new restaurant openings for the fiscal year, signaling continued expansion momentum.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Mar 19, 2026$2.95
est $2.94
+0.3%$3.35B
est $3.33B
+0.3%+1.2%
Dec 18, 2025$2.08
est $2.10
−1.0%$3.10B
est $3.08B
+0.9%+0.2%
Sep 18, 2025$1.97
est $2.00
−1.5%$3.04B
est $3.04B
+0.1%−11.5%
Jun 20, 2025$2.98
est $2.97
+0.3%$3.27B
est $3.26B
+0.3%−0.6%
Mar 20, 2025$2.80
est $2.80
0.0%$3.16B
est $3.21B
−1.8%+6.3%
Dec 19, 2024$2.03
est $2.02
+0.5%$2.89B
est $2.87B
+0.7%+17.3%
Sep 19, 2024$1.75
est $1.83
−4.4%$2.76B
est $2.80B
−1.5%+6.9%
Jun 20, 2024$2.65
est $2.61
+1.5%$2.96B
est $2.97B
−0.5%+0.9%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Darden Restaurants stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Darden Restaurants is $234.42, +19.0% from the last close, from 21 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$234.42consensus 12-month target, +19.0% from the last close
Low $210High $276
Buy16
Hold5
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 21 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 27Bank of America SecuritiesBuy, reiterated$276+40.1%
Sep 25Freedom Capital MarketsBuy, reiterated$260+32.0%
Sep 25Wells FargoHold, maintained$210+6.6%
Sep 25BTIGBuy, reiterated$235+19.3%
Sep 25Evercore ISIHold, maintained$230+16.7%
+1.4%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
−1.4%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.8%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Darden Restaurants seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Darden Restaurants averaged −1.4% across the last 5 years, rising in 1 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−6.6%2021+8.8%2022−0.5%2023−1.2%2024−4.8%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days−0.6%3 of 5
Next 10 trading days−3.3%1 of 5
Next 15 trading days−2.0%1 of 5
Next 20 trading days−1.4%1 of 5
Next 30 trading days+1.4%3 of 5

For scale, DRI’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 4.4%.

Darden Restaurants market cap and key statistics

Darden Restaurants’s market cap is $22.55B, with a P/E ratio of 19.1 and revenue of $13.37B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$22.55B
P/E ratio
19.1
Forward P/E
18.9
EPS, TTM
$10.44
Gekko Fair Value
$268.29

Trading

Volume
1.49M
Avg volume, 20 days
1.31M
52-week high
$229.76
52-week low
$169.00
Shares outstanding
113.5M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$13.37B
Profit margin
8.9%
Return on equity
55.4%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−6.7%

Risk and income

Beta
0.59
Typical daily move
±2.8%
Typical 20-day move
±4.4%
Dividend yield
2.95%

Darden Restaurants stock news this week

Coverage of Darden Restaurants this week reads neutral: 4 positive, 9 neutral and 7 negative headlines.

News sentiment neutral

Darden Restaurants peers

Darden Restaurants’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
MCDMcDonald's−0.9%Buying14.3% below
SBUXStarbucks+1.1%Buying11.3% above
CMGChipotle Mexican Grill+2.1%Buying6.2% below
YUMYum! Brands−0.4%Accumulation24.5% below
QSRRestaurant Brands International−0.1%Accumulation36.7% below
YUMCYum China+0.2%Accumulation47.8% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Darden Restaurants stock FAQ

What is Darden Restaurants’s market cap?

Darden Restaurants’s market cap is $22.55B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $197.02, with 113.5M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 19.1.

What is the Darden Restaurants stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Darden Restaurants is $234.42, +19.0% from the last close. Of the 21 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 16 rate it a buy, 5 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Darden Restaurants stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Darden Restaurants is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $197.02 is 26.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $268.29. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Darden Restaurants report earnings next?

Darden Restaurants is expected to report on Dec 17, 2026 (79 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $2.30 per share on revenue of $3.27B. Darden Restaurants beat the earnings estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports, moving 5.6% on average across the report.

What is Darden Restaurants’s 52-week high and low?

Darden Restaurants’s 52-week high is $229.76 and its 52-week low is $169.00; it closed at $197.02 on Sep 28, 2026, +5.3% over the past year.

Is Darden Restaurants stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and earnings risk), 1 as mixed (trend) and 1 as a headwind (seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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