Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for CAKE in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every CAKE insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open CAKE in Gekko
NASDAQ: CAKE
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Sep 28 close
$105.16+0.67 (+0.6%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryThis week's coverage centers on comparisons within casual dining and on Cheesecake Factory's own brand mix. One piece weighs Brinker International's (EAT) Chili's strength against Cheesecake Factory's core brand, noting North Italia as a drag on both narratives, while another highlights growth investor interest in CAKE. A separate item focuses on plans to turn around North Italia traffic through value-focused menus, targeted marketing and operational changes amid ongoing competitive pressure.
CAKE closed at $105.16, up 0.6%, sitting above both its 50-day average of $103.61 and 200-day average of $72.78, with the shorter average above the longer one. The GekkoIndex reads 55.3, placing the stock in the Neutral zone, down from a five-day change of -7.5. Price stands 30.9% above the Gekko Fair Value of $80.35.
Cheesecake Factory next reports earnings on 27 October 2026, after the close, 28 days out and within a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior quarter saw EPS of $1.44 against a $1.17 estimate, with a 16.2% reaction. Seasonality over the next 20 trading days has averaged 1.4% across 5 years, rising in 3 of them. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the current window. Analyst coverage shows 13 firms with a consensus target of $95.93, implying a -8.8% consensus upside from current levels.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.
Cheesecake Factory price vs fair value
Close $105.16200-day averageGekko Fair Value $80.35
Cheesecake Factory quick facts
- Market cap
- $5.22B
- P/E ratio
- 28.3
- Forward P/E
- 22.6
- EPS, TTM
- $3.69
- Revenue, TTM
- $3.88B
- Profit margin
- 4.6%
- Dividend yield
- 1.09%
- Beta
- 1.01
- Volume
- 1.28M avg 1.42M
- 1-year return
- +93.7%
- Typical daily move
- ±3.6%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±6.9%
- 50-day average
- $103.61
- 200-day average
- $72.78
- Next earnings
- Oct 27 after close
- Shares outstanding
- 49.76M
Cheesecake Factory swing-trade checklist
Cheesecake Factory scores 2 supportive, 1 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
2 supportive1 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendsupportive
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $105.16 is above the 50-day ($103.61) and 200-day ($72.78) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
55.3, Neutral
Reading 55.3 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valueheadwind
30.9% above
Price is 30.9% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 28 days
Reports on Oct 27, 2026, 28 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+1.4% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +1.4% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Cheesecake Factory stock chart and price history
Cheesecake Factory closed at $105.16 on Sep 28, 2026, +93.7% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $43.07 to $118.46.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −4.5%
- 3 months
- +32.5%
- 6 months
- +94.5%
- 1 year
- +93.7%
The full CAKE chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open CAKE in Gekko
Follow Cheesecake Factory through every session
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About Cheesecake Factory
Cheesecake Factory runs sit-down restaurants across the United States and Canada, with 306 locations spanning its namesake brand alongside North Italia and various Fox Restaurant Concepts eateries. It is widely recognized for the cheesecakes and baked goods produced at its two in-house bakeries, which supply not just its own dining rooms but a wider network of buyers.
Beyond restaurant operations, the company functions as a baked-goods supplier, sending its cheesecakes and other desserts to international licensees, outside foodservice businesses, third-party bakery clients, retailers, and distributors. Its restaurant footprint includes 208 Cheesecake Factory locations, 29 North Italia outlets, and other Fox Restaurant Concepts brands domestically, while 29 additional Cheesecake Factory restaurants operate abroad through licensing arrangements.
The company was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Calabasas, California. Its shares trade on the NASDAQ under the ticker CAKE.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer services
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Website
- thecheesecakefactory.com
Cheesecake Factory GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Cheesecake Factory’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 55.3, in the Neutral zone, down 7.5 points over five sessions.
55.3Neutral
Down 7.5 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.
Reading for Sep 28, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 28 | −1.5% | +1.4% | ||
| Accumulation | 147 | +2.2% | +3.9% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 428 | +0.8% | +4.3% | ||
| Distribution | 63 | +0.6% | +2.8% | ||
| Selling | 6 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average CAKE share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the CAKE price, zone by zone.Track CAKE in Gekko
Is Cheesecake Factory stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Cheesecake Factory trades 30.9% above Gekko Fair Value of $80.35, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Cheesecake Factory shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$80.35
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026
30.9% Overvalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open CAKE in Gekko
Cheesecake Factory insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Cheesecake Factory, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in CAKE were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for CAKE, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open CAKE in Gekko
Buybacks
Cheesecake Factory has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $10.96M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.21%
- Trailing four quarters
- $41.77M
From company filings.
Cheesecake Factory earnings: next date and track record
Cheesecake Factory reports on Oct 27, 2026, after the close (28 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 27, 2026
Expected after the close, 28 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.87
- Revenue estimate
- $989.1M
7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±5%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 28, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) delivered a record Q2 2026 with quarterly revenue exceeding $1 billion for the first time, and adjusted diluted EPS up 24% year-over-year. Comparable sales grew 5.8% with traffic up 2.7%, outperforming the Black Box Casual Dining Index by 350 basis points. Average weekly sales hit an all-time high with annualized unit volumes above $13.5 million. Restaurant-level margin reached 20%, the highest in a decade, driven by labor productivity and food efficiency gains.
- Guidance
- Management expects to open up to 26 restaurants in fiscal 2026, consistent with a 7% annual unit growth target. The company entered H2 2026 from a position of strength with momentum in traffic, margins, and menu innovation driving continued confidence in growth outlook.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | $1.44 est $1.17 | $1.03B est $999.5M | +16.2% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | $1.02 est $1.03 | $978.8M est $964.6M | +0.3% |
| Feb 18, 2026 | $1.00 est $1.00 | $961.6M est $948.9M | −0.2% |
| Oct 28, 2025 | $0.68 est $0.60 | $907.2M est $948.9M | −9.9% |
| Jul 29, 2025 | $1.16 est $1.06 | $955.8M est $911.7M | +0.9% |
| Apr 30, 2025 | $0.93 est $0.81 | $927.2M est $925.7M | −3.0% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | $1.04 est $0.91 | $921.0M est $936.0M | −1.5% |
| Oct 29, 2024 | $0.58 est $0.48 | $865.5M est $912.2M | +7.8% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Cheesecake Factory stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Cheesecake Factory is $95.93, −8.8% from the last close, from 13 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$95.93consensus 12-month target, −8.8% from the last close
Now $105.16Avg $95.93
Low $60High $117
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 13 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15 | Wells Fargo | $105 | −0.2% |
| Sep 10 | Bank of America Securities | $117 | +11.3% |
| Aug 26 | J.P. Morgan | $105 | −0.2% |
| Aug 24 | Robert W. Baird | $105 | −0.2% |
| Jul 30 | J.P. Morgan | $92 | −12.5% |
+4.3%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+1.4%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.6%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Cheesecake Factory seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Cheesecake Factory averaged +1.4% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +0.8% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −1.1% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +0.7% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +1.4% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +3.4% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, CAKE’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 6.9%.
Cheesecake Factory market cap and key statistics
Cheesecake Factory’s market cap is $5.22B, with a P/E ratio of 28.3 and revenue of $3.88B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $5.22B
- P/E ratio
- 28.3
- Forward P/E
- 22.6
- EPS, TTM
- $3.69
- Gekko Fair Value
- $80.35
Trading
- Volume
- 1.28M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 1.42M
- 52-week high
- $118.46
- 52-week low
- $43.07
- Shares outstanding
- 49.76M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $3.88B
- Profit margin
- 4.6%
- Return on equity
- 38.8%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +23.7%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 1.01
- Typical daily move
- ±3.6%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±6.9%
- Dividend yield
- 1.09%
Cheesecake Factory stock news this week
3 headlines about Cheesecake Factory from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.
- EAT vs. CAKE: Which Restaurant Stock Is the Better Buy Now?TradingView, Sep 22
- Here is Why Growth Investors Should Buy Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) NowZacks Investment Research, Sep 21
- CAKE Targets North Italia Recovery: Can Traffic Turn Around?Zacks Investment Research, Sep 21
Cheesecake Factory peers
Cheesecake Factory’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| MCDMcDonald's | Buying | 14.3% below |
| SBUXStarbucks | Buying | 11.3% above |
| CMGChipotle Mexican Grill | Buying | 6.2% below |
| YUMYum! Brands | Accumulation | 24.5% below |
| QSRRestaurant Brands International | Accumulation | 36.7% below |
| DRIDarden Restaurants | Accumulation | 26.6% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Cheesecake Factory stock FAQ
What is Cheesecake Factory’s market cap?
Cheesecake Factory’s market cap is $5.22B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $105.16, with 49.76M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 28.3.
What is the Cheesecake Factory stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Cheesecake Factory is $95.93, −8.8% from the last close. Of the 13 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 4 rate it a buy, 8 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Cheesecake Factory stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Cheesecake Factory is overvalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $105.16 is 30.9% above Gekko Fair Value of $80.35. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Cheesecake Factory report earnings next?
Cheesecake Factory is expected to report on Oct 27, 2026, after the market closes (28 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.87 per share on revenue of $989.1M. Cheesecake Factory beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 5% on average across the report.
What is Cheesecake Factory’s 52-week high and low?
Cheesecake Factory’s 52-week high is $118.46 and its 52-week low is $43.07; it closed at $105.16 on Sep 28, 2026, +93.7% over the past year.
Is Cheesecake Factory stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (trend and seasonality), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 2 as headwinds (fair value and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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