Insider buying last 90 days
$1.28Min 1 open-market purchase
| Filed | Insider | Type | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10 | Gu Paul director, officer: Chief Executive Officer | Purchase | $1.28M |
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
NASDAQ: UPST
Upstart (UPST) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$23.75−0.35 (−1.5%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeUpstart's shares slipped this week as the company expanded its credit union network through a partnership with Credit Union of Denver, aiming to widen access to its AI-powered lending platform for personal loans. Separately, Needham reiterated a Buy rating and $42 price target after Upstart reported September loan origination volumes of $1.378 billion, a 44.2% year-over-year increase that topped the firm's estimates. Despite this positive operational update, shares continued to underperform the broader market, extending a decline that has weighed on the stock over the past month.
UPST closed at $23.75, down 1.5% on the day, and sits below both its 50-day average of $27.09 and 200-day average of $31.55, with the shorter-term average also below the longer-term one. The GekkoIndex reads 63.7, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone. The current price stands 26.2% below the Gekko Fair Value of $32.16.
Upstart's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 November 2026, after the close, falling within the next 20 trading days. Its last reaction to results was a 2.6% move, with average absolute moves of 18.1% historically. Over the last 90 days, one insider purchase of $1,277,500 and one Congressional buy have been recorded, with no Congressional sales. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a -0.2% return over the past 5 years, rising in 2 of those years.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Upstart price vs fair value
Close $23.75200-day averageGekko Fair Value $32.16
Upstart quick facts
- Market cap
- $2.27B
- P/E ratio
- 48.4
- Forward P/E
- 13.6
- EPS, TTM
- $0.50
- Revenue, TTM
- $1.29B
- Profit margin
- 4.7%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 2.43
- Volume
- 2.73M avg 4.30M
- 1-year return
- −54.6%
- Typical daily move
- ±4.1%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±17.6%
- 50-day average
- $27.09
- 200-day average
- $31.55
- Next earnings
- Nov 3 after close
- Shares outstanding
- 97.31M
Upstart swing-trade checklist
Upstart scores 3 supportive, 0 mixed and 3 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive0 mixed3 headwinds
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $23.75 is below the 50-day ($27.09) and 200-day ($31.55) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
63.7, Accumulation
Reading 63.7 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
26.2% below
Price is 26.2% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 90 days: 1 open-market insider purchase; Congress 1 buy / 0 sales.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 22 days
Reports on Nov 3, 2026, 22 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalityheadwind
−0.2% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −0.2% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Upstart stock chart and price history
Upstart closed at $23.75 on Oct 12, 2026, −54.6% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $22.56 to $55.22.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −7.2%
- 3 months
- −25.1%
- 6 months
- −15.4%
- 1 year
- −54.6%
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About Upstart
Upstart runs an artificial intelligence based lending platform delivered through the cloud, serving borrowers and lending partners across the United States. The platform is best known for applying AI models to credit decisions, covering products such as unsecured personal loans, small dollar loans, and home equity lines of credit.
The business is organized into three segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other. Within auto lending, its offerings extend to refinance loans, retail loans, and auto secured personal loans, reflecting a focus on applying its lending technology across different borrowing needs tied to vehicles as well as personal finance.
Upstart was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California. Its shares trade on the NASDAQ under the ticker UPST.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Finance
- Industry
- Finance/Rental/Leasing
- Website
- upstart.com
Upstart GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Upstart’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 63.7, in the Accumulation zone, down 2.9 points over five sessions.
63.7Accumulation
Down 2.9 points over five sessions.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 56 | +0.1% | +0.1% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 232 | −0.2% | +3.3% | ||
| Neutral | 351 | +1.3% | +0.6% | ||
| Distribution | 35 | −3.4% | +0.2% | ||
| Selling | 8 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average UPST share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the UPST price, zone by zone.Track UPST in Gekko
Is Upstart stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Upstart trades 26.2% below Gekko Fair Value of $32.16, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Upstart shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$32.16
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
26.2% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 22.4% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open UPST in Gekko
Upstart insider and Congress trading
Insiders filed 1 open-market purchase in Upstart worth $1.28M, and members of Congress disclosed 1 purchase and 0 sales, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
1trade disclosed: 1 purchase and 0 sales.
| Member | Amount | Disclosed |
|---|---|---|
| Tony Wied House, WI, purchase | $15,001 - $50,000 | Aug 19 traded Jul 14 |
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Buybacks
Upstart has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $100.1M
- As a share of market cap
- 4.40%
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Mar 31
1of the funds Gekko tracks holds UPST.
0added1opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Upstart earnings: next date and track record
Upstart reports on Nov 3, 2026, after the close (22 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 3, 2026
Expected after the close, 22 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.22
- Revenue estimate
- $365.5M
6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±18.1%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 4, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Upstart reported a strong Q2 2026 driven by re-accelerated growth in core personal loans, rapid improvements in secured products (Auto and Home), and expansion of third-party committed capital that supported originations without issuing new equity. Total originations were $4.2B, up 50% YoY and 23% sequentially, with core personal loans up 27% quarter-on-quarter. Unsecured contribution margin rose 6 percentage points QoQ, while secured products improved contribution margin by 61 percentage points in the quarter. Management emphasized capital efficiency, automation, and continued investment in product distribution and model improvements. They maintained full-year guidance despite strong Q2 results, citing a modest macro headwind from an uptick in their UMI macro indicator. Management reiterated focus on driving core personal loan growth, getting secured products to contribution profitability (targeting Q4), and scaling committed capital partnerships and bank charter plans.
- Guidance
- Company maintained full-year guidance. Key forward-looking commentary: UMI was ~1.5 (high end of guided 1.4-1.5), representing a modest headwind; management expects EBITDA margins to ramp in the back half of the year, implying roughly mid-20s EBITDA margin in H2 (~24-25% implied by Q3/Q4 cadence commentary); secured products expected to be contribution profitable by Q4; fixed OpEx growth expected to moderate to low single digits for the remainder of the year; full-year stock-based comp expected ~ $170M.
- Risks flagged
- Risks called out: UMI/macro sensitivity (UMI increase to ~1.5 seen as a modest headwind to originations and fair value marks); funding and capital timing (though improved, funding remains critical); continued execution risk in scaling secured products and bank launch timing/operationalization; model/underwriting limits (acknowledged theoretical limits to predictability); higher OpEx from investments and one-time restructuring costs.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | $0.18 est $0.30 | $364.7M est $354.7M | +2.6% |
| May 5, 2026 | $0.30 est $0.49 | $308.2M est $301.3M | −10.5% |
| Feb 10, 2026 | $0.17 est $0.15 | $296.1M est $288.5M | −14.8% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $0.52 est $0.42 | $285.9M est $288.6M | −12.2% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | $0.36 est $0.27 | $257.3M est $281.0M | −18.9% |
| May 6, 2025 | $0.30 est $0.19 | $220.4M est $201.3M | −10.7% |
| Feb 11, 2025 | $0.26 est −$0.04 | $211.3M est $181.9M | +25.1% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | −$0.06 est −$0.15 | $162.1M est $149.3M | +50.1% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Upstart stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Upstart is $40.00, +68.4% from the last close, from 12 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$40.00consensus 12-month target, +68.4% from the last close
Now $23.75Avg $40.00
Low $34High $61
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 12 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | Needham | $42 | +76.8% |
| Sep 21 | BTIG | $43 | +81.1% |
| Sep 8 | Loop Capital Markets | $34 | +43.2% |
| Sep 4 | Truist Financial | — | — |
| Sep 3 | Goldman Sachs | $39 | +64.2% |
+3.3%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
−0.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4.1%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Upstart seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Upstart averaged −0.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +10.4% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +4.4% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +3.4% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | −0.2% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | −5.4% | 1 of 5 |
For scale, UPST’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 17.6%.
Upstart market cap and key statistics
Upstart’s market cap is $2.27B, with a P/E ratio of 48.4 and revenue of $1.29B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $2.27B
- P/E ratio
- 48.4
- Forward P/E
- 13.6
- EPS, TTM
- $0.50
- Gekko Fair Value
- $32.16
Trading
- Volume
- 2.73M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 4.30M
- 52-week high
- $55.22
- 52-week low
- $22.56
- Shares outstanding
- 97.31M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $1.29B
- Profit margin
- 4.7%
- Return on equity
- 7.9%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +211.2%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 2.43
- Typical daily move
- ±4.1%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±17.6%
Upstart stock news this week
Coverage of Upstart this week reads positive: 6 positive, 2 neutral and 1 negative headlines.
- Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Sees a More Significant Dip Than Broader Market: Some Facts to KnowZacks Investment Research, Oct 12
- Upstart Expands Credit Union Network With Denver PartnershipTradingView, Oct 8
- Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) options chainYahoo Finance UK, Oct 8
- Colorado’s oldest state-chartered credit union uses Upstart to offer personal loans online.Stock Titan, Oct 7
- Credit Union of Denver Partners with Upstart to Expand Access to Personal LendingBusiness Wire, Oct 7
- Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: Here's WhyYahoo! Finance Canada, Oct 6
Upstart peers
Upstart’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| VVisa | Neutral | 0.1% below |
| MAMastercard | Neutral | 2.4% below |
| AXPAmerican Express | Accumulation | 9.3% below |
| COFCapital One Financial | Neutral | 12.1% below |
| URIUnited Rentals | Neutral | 7.5% below |
| RKTRocket Companies | Accumulation | 25.9% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Upstart stock FAQ
What is Upstart’s market cap?
Upstart’s market cap is $2.27B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $23.75, with 97.31M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 48.4.
What is the Upstart stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Upstart is $40.00, +68.4% from the last close. Of the 12 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 7 rate it a buy, 5 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Upstart stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Upstart is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $23.75 is 26.2% below Gekko Fair Value of $32.16. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Upstart report earnings next?
Upstart is expected to report on Nov 3, 2026, after the market closes (22 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.22 per share on revenue of $365.5M. Upstart beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 18.1% on average across the report.
What is Upstart’s 52-week high and low?
Upstart’s 52-week high is $55.22 and its 52-week low is $22.56; it closed at $23.75 on Oct 12, 2026, −54.6% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $401.49 on Oct 15, 2021.
Is Upstart stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and smart money) and 3 as headwinds (trend, earnings risk and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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