NYSE: AER

AerCap (AER) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$146.51−2.70 (−1.8%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

This week's activity centers on AerCap's debt financing and continued analyst attention. AerCap priced $1.5 billion in senior notes through its subsidiary, split between $750 million of 5.500% notes due 2030 and $750 million of 5.875% notes due 2033. Separately, analyst commentary highlighted a consensus 12-month price target of $172.56, with eleven analysts maintaining an average "Buy" rating, alongside comparative coverage weighing AER against peer WAB in the leasing sector.

AER closed at $146.51, down 1.8%, sitting between its 50-day average of $147.66 and 200-day average of $144.20. The GekkoIndex reads 55.3, placing the stock in the Neutral zone. Fair value assessment puts Gekko Fair Value at $160.32, leaving the current price 8.6% below that level.

Earnings are scheduled for 4 November 2026, 36 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day holding window. In the last 90 days, no insider or Congress buying activity is on record, and no unusual options signals appear in the last 30 days. AerCap holds one billionaire holder among tracked positions. Seasonality data shows that from this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 3.5% gain over five years, with gains in three of those years. Analyst sentiment remains largely favorable, with 9 of 10 firms rating the stock a buy and one holding a neutral stance.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

AerCap price vs fair value

$160.32$146.51Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $146.51200-day averageGekko Fair Value $160.32

AerCap quick facts

Market cap
$23.10B
P/E ratio
7.3
Forward P/E
8.1
EPS, TTM
$20.35
Revenue, TTM
$8.96B
Profit margin
37.9%
Dividend yield
1.07%
Beta
0.93
Volume
1.11M avg 1.14M
1-year return
+19.8%
Typical daily move
±2.1%
Typical 20-day move
±4.8%
50-day average
$147.66
200-day average
$144.20
Next earnings
Nov 4 before open
Shares outstanding
157.2M
52-week range
$118.96$158.81

AerCap swing-trade checklist

AerCap scores 3 supportive, 2 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive2 mixed0 headwinds

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $146.51 sits between the 50-day ($147.66) and 200-day ($144.20) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexmixed

    55.3, Neutral

    Reading 55.3 is in the Neutral zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    8.6% below

    Price is 8.6% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 36 days

    Next report Nov 4, 2026, 36 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +3.5% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +3.5% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

AerCap stock chart and price history

AerCap closed at $146.51 on Sep 28, 2026, +19.8% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $118.96 to $158.81.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
AerCap share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$110$120$130$140$150NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep146.51

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−1.0%
3 months
−0.7%
6 months
+9.8%
1 year
+19.8%
The full AER chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open AER in Gekko

Follow AerCap through every session

Put AER on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About AerCap

AerCap buys, leases, sells and manages commercial aircraft and engines for customers across the aviation world, with activity concentrated in markets such as China, Hong Kong, Macau, the United States and Ireland. It is recognized for the scale of its aircraft and engine fleet, which by the end of 2021 stood at 2,369 units either owned outright, managed on behalf of others, or on order.

The company's work goes beyond simply owning aircraft. It remarkets planes and engines to new operators, collects rent and maintenance payments, inspects and maintains equipment, arranges deliveries and redelivery, and checks on the financial health of the airlines it leases to. When leases run into trouble, it can renegotiate terms or repossess aircraft, and it also arranges insurance, registration and valuations, alongside treasury and administrative functions like budgeting and financial reporting. It further supplies airframe and engine parts through supply chain arrangements serving airlines, maintenance and repair organizations, and parts distributors.

AerCap was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker AER.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Finance
Industry
Finance/Rental/Leasing
Website
aercap.com

AerCap GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

AerCap’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 55.3, in the Neutral zone, down 7.5 points over five sessions.

010055.3Neutral

Down 7.5 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying10+4.6%+7.7%+15.1%+19.7%
Accumulation126+1.6%+2.8%+5.0%+8.3%
Neutral (current zone)476+0.2%+0.5%+1.2%+4.1%
Distribution59+0.8%+0.9%+1.2%+6.8%
Selling1Too few readings yet

Average AER share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the AER price, zone by zone.Track AER in Gekko

Is AerCap stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

AerCap trades 8.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $160.32, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what AerCap shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$160.32

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026

8.6% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open AER in Gekko

AerCap insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for AerCap, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for AER in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every AER insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open AER in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in AER were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for AER, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open AER in Gekko

Buybacks

AerCap has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$739.6M
As a share of market cap
3.20%
Trailing four quarters
$2.92B

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

1of the funds Gekko tracks holds AER.

0added0opened1trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

AerCap earnings: next date and track record

AerCap reports on Nov 4, 2026, before the open (36 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.

7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.6%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−7.8%Aug ’24−2.3%Oct ’24+1.0%Feb ’25+0.1%Apr ’25−4.8%Jul ’25+7.8%Oct ’25−1.0%Feb ’26+3.7%Apr ’26

Last earnings call, Apr 29, 2026 AI summary

What they said
AerCap reported record Q1 2026 adjusted net income of $889 million ($5.39/share) and GAAP net income of $818 million ($4.96/share), representing 19% adjusted ROE. The company closed 286 transactions including 202 lease agreements with an 87% lease extension rate and $1.5 billion in asset sales. AerCap repurchased $745 million in shares and added 110 aircraft to its backlog, while maintaining $21 billion liquidity and 2.1x net debt-to-equity.
Guidance
AerCap raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $14.50/share, excluding additional gains on sale. Management authorized a new $1 billion share repurchase program and cited $3 billion of excess capital to balance organic growth and buybacks, with elevated fuel costs potentially creating sale-leaseback growth opportunities.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Apr 29, 2026$5.39
est $3.70
+45.7%$2.24B
est $2.07B
+8.2%+3.7%
Feb 6, 2026$3.95
est $3.40
+16.2%$2.24B
est $2.11B
+6.4%−1.0%
Oct 29, 2025$4.97
est $3.10
+60.3%$1.89B
est $1.98B
−4.4%+7.8%
Jul 30, 2025$2.83
est $2.68
+5.6%$1.89B
est $2.01B
−6.3%−4.8%
Apr 30, 2025$3.68
est $2.80
+31.6%$2.08B
est $2.01B
+3.2%+0.1%
Feb 26, 2025$3.31
est $2.57
+28.7%$2.07B
est $1.96B
+5.5%+1.0%
Oct 30, 2024$2.41
est $2.41
0.0%$1.95B
est $1.92B
+1.4%−2.3%
Aug 1, 2024$3.01
est $2.37
+27.0%$1.89B
est $1.89B
−0.2%−7.8%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

AerCap stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for AerCap is $179.30, +22.4% from the last close, from 10 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$179.30consensus 12-month target, +22.4% from the last close
Low $165High $190
Buy9
Hold1
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 10 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Aug 18Bank of America SecuritiesBuy, maintained——
Jul 30TD CowenBuy, reiterated$180+22.9%
Jul 30J.P. MorganBuy, reiterated$183+24.9%
Jul 30Morgan StanleyHold, maintained$165+12.6%
Jul 30Truist FinancialBuy, reiterated$180+22.9%
+1.2%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+3.5%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.1%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

AerCap seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, AerCap averaged +3.5% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+0.3%2021+22.0%2022−5.2%2023+1.4%2024−0.3%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+2.3%3 of 5
Next 10 trading days+1.9%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days+3.7%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days+3.5%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days+14.4%5 of 5

For scale, AER’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 4.8%.

AerCap market cap and key statistics

AerCap’s market cap is $23.10B, with a P/E ratio of 7.3 and revenue of $8.96B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$23.10B
P/E ratio
7.3
Forward P/E
8.1
EPS, TTM
$20.35
Gekko Fair Value
$160.32

Trading

Volume
1.11M
Avg volume, 20 days
1.14M
52-week high
$158.81
52-week low
$118.96
Shares outstanding
157.2M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$8.96B
Profit margin
37.9%
Return on equity
18.7%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−35.3%

Risk and income

Beta
0.93
Typical daily move
±2.1%
Typical 20-day move
±4.8%
Dividend yield
1.07%

AerCap stock news this week

Coverage of AerCap this week reads neutral: 3 positive, 5 neutral and 0 negative headlines.

News sentiment neutral

AerCap peers

AerCap’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
VVisa+0.3%Neutral5.4% below
MAMastercard+0.4%Neutral6.5% below
AXPAmerican Express−0.4%Accumulation12.9% below
COFCapital One Financial−1.4%Accumulation14.8% below
URIUnited Rentals+0.5%Neutral9.0% below
RKTRocket Companies−1.8%Accumulation23.5% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

AerCap stock FAQ

What is AerCap’s market cap?

AerCap’s market cap is $23.10B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $146.51, with 157.2M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 7.3.

What is the AerCap stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for AerCap is $179.30, +22.4% from the last close. Of the 10 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 9 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is AerCap stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate AerCap is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $146.51 is 8.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $160.32. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does AerCap report earnings next?

AerCap is expected to report on Nov 4, 2026, before the market opens (36 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $4.15 per share on revenue of $2.08B. AerCap beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 3.6% on average across the report.

What is AerCap’s 52-week high and low?

AerCap’s 52-week high is $158.81 and its 52-week low is $118.96; it closed at $146.51 on Sep 28, 2026, +19.8% over the past year.

Is AerCap stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (fair value, earnings risk and seasonality), 2 as mixed (trend and gekkoindex). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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