NYSE: UWMC

UWM (UWMC) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Oct 12 close

$1.02−0.06 (−5.6%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryOct 12 close

This week's news centers on a wave of securities class action deadline alerts from multiple law firms, including Rosen, Kaplan Fox, Faruqi & Faruqi, Bronstein Gewirtz & Grossman, and Glancy Prongay Wolke & Rotter, all tied to the period between March 9, 2026 and August 5, 2026. The underlying claim concerns alleged misleading statements about UWM's hedging strategy, specifically over-hedging ahead of a transaction, which one filing ties to a reported $603 million hedge loss connected to a failed bid to acquire Two Harbors. These alerts reference an October 13, 2026 lead plaintiff deadline.

UWM closes at $1.02, down 5.6%, sitting below both the 50-day average of $1.37 and the 200-day average of $3.04, with the 50-day below the 200-day. The stock has fallen 24.4% over one month, 49.5% over three months, and 80.7% over the past year, trading near its 52-week low of $0.93. The GekkoIndex reads 71.8, placing it in the Buying zone. Gekko Fair Value stands at $1.64, putting the current price 37.8% below that level.

UWM's next earnings date falls on 5 November 2026, 24 days away, within a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior report on 6 August 2026 saw EPS of -$0.23 against an estimate of $0.07, with a 30.4% reaction. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the respective 90-day and 30-day windows. Seasonality over this stretch has averaged a 4.5% return across 5 years, rising in 2 of them. Analyst consensus shows 2 buy and 4 hold ratings among 6 firms, with a consensus target of $2.05.

Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

UWM price vs fair value

$1.64$1.02Oct ’25Apr ’26Oct ’26
Close $1.02200-day averageGekko Fair Value $1.64

UWM quick facts

Market cap
$1.55B
P/E ratio
—
Forward P/E
3.1
EPS, TTM
−$0.11
Revenue, TTM
$2.93B
Profit margin
-1.3%
Dividend yield
35.40%
Beta
1.87
Volume
10.68M avg 12.66M
1-year return
−80.7%
Typical daily move
±8.5%
Typical 20-day move
±10.5%
50-day average
$1.37
200-day average
$3.04
Next earnings
Nov 5
Shares outstanding
345.1M
52-week range
$0.93$6.15

UWM swing-trade checklist

UWM scores 2 supportive, 1 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

2 supportive1 mixed2 headwinds

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $1.02 is below the 50-day ($1.37) and 200-day ($3.04) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    71.8, Buying

    Reading 71.8 is in the Buying zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    37.8% below

    Price is 37.8% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 24 days

    Reports on Nov 5, 2026, 24 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitymixed

    +4.5% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +4.5% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

UWM stock chart and price history

UWM closed at $1.02 on Oct 12, 2026, −80.7% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $0.93 to $6.15.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
UWM share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$2$3$4$5$6NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct1.02

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−24.4%
3 months
−49.5%
6 months
−72.7%
1 year
−80.7%
The full UWMC chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open UWMC in Gekko

Follow UWM through every session

Put UWMC on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About UWM

UWM provides residential mortgage financing, giving borrowers access to home loan products that include both conforming loans and those backed by government programs. Rather than lending directly to homebuyers, the company channels its loans through a wholesale distribution approach, working with outside parties to originate mortgages. It has built its reputation around this wholesale method of getting home financing to consumers.

Operating through this wholesale structure, UWM relies on independent mortgage brokers and similar partners to connect with homebuyers, rather than marketing loans to the public directly. Its product mix centers on standard conforming mortgages alongside loans supported by government backing, which together form the core of what it originates.

UWM traces its founding back to 1986 and keeps its headquarters in Pontiac, Michigan. Its shares trade on the NYSE under the ticker UWMC.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Finance
Industry
Finance/Rental/Leasing
Website
uwm.com

UWM GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

UWM’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 71.8, in the Buying zone, up 10.5 points over five sessions.

010071.8Buying

Up 10.5 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.

Reading for Oct 12, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying (current zone)86−0.1%−1.6%−4.0%−18.3%
Accumulation303−1.9%−2.8%−6.2%−9.7%
Neutral264−0.1%−1.3%−2.0%−5.3%
Distribution28−1.2%−0.3%+2.9%−3.9%
Selling1Too few readings yet

Average UWMC share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Buying readings averaged +3.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Buying zone: Smart money likely accumulating heavily. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the UWMC price, zone by zone.Track UWMC in Gekko

Is UWM stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

UWM trades 37.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $1.64, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what UWM shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$1.64

Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026

37.8% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 30.0% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$2$1Aug 2026SepOct 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open UWMC in Gekko

UWM insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for UWM, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for UWMC in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every UWMC insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open UWMC in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in UWMC were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for UWMC, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open UWMC in Gekko

Buybacks

UWM has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Dec 31, 2021
$60.63M
As a share of market cap
3.92%

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

1of the funds Gekko tracks holds UWMC.

0added1opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

UWM earnings: next date and track record

UWM reports on Nov 5, 2026 (24 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 2 of its last 8 reports.

2 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±9.3%average move across the report
1 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−6.0%Nov ’24−7.6%Feb ’25−14.5%May ’25+7.1%Aug ’25−7.2%Nov ’25−0.2%Feb ’26−1.5%May ’26−30.4%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 6, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Mathew Ishbia discusses UWM's strong operating performance in Q2, highlighting adjusted EBITDA over $180 million and approximately $40 billion in business. He emphasizes confidence in the broker channel and the strategic partnership with Oaktree, portraying Oaktree as more than a capital provider—offering mortgage-related expertise and alignment on long-term vision. Ishbia notes UWM's consistent profitability despite a tough mortgage market over the past 4-5 years, expects significantly improved market conditions over the next 4-5 years, and states the balance sheet is fortified with debt ratios no longer a concern. He also signals that he will address questions on Oaktree partnership, dividend, Two Harbors, hedging, and AI.
Guidance
No explicit forward-looking numerical guidance provided; management expresses qualitative optimism about the next 4-5 years and future growth but did not issue specific forecasts.
Risks flagged
Mortgage market has been "tough for the last 5 years"; implied risk around market cycles. No new or explicit risk disclosures beyond acknowledging past headwinds.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 6, 2026−$0.23
est $0.07
−428.6%$162.1M
est $727.5M
−77.7%−30.4%
May 6, 2026$0.09
est $0.07
+28.6%$901.4M
est $709.8M
+27.0%−1.5%
Feb 25, 2026$0.08
est $0.09
−9.3%$759.0M
est $759.7M
−0.1%−0.2%
Nov 6, 2025$0.01
est $0.08
−86.9%$470.7M
est $654.8M
−28.1%−7.2%
Aug 7, 2025$0.16
est $0.06
+166.7%$784.6M
est $655.9M
+19.6%+7.1%
May 6, 2025$0.02
est $0.05
−60.0%$161.6M
est $660.3M
−75.5%−14.5%
Feb 26, 2025$0.02
est $0.08
−73.7%$478.6M
est $645.8M
−25.9%−7.6%
Nov 7, 2024$0.01
est $0.07
−85.7%$459.4M
est $583.8M
−21.3%−6.0%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

UWM stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for UWM is $2.05, +101.0% from the last close, from 6 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$2.05consensus 12-month target, +101.0% from the last close
Low $1.50High $4.05
Buy2
Hold4
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 6 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Oct 12BTIGHold, downgraded——
Oct 12Morgan StanleyHold, maintained$1.50+47.1%
Oct 7KBWHold, downgraded$1.50+47.1%
Oct 5BarclaysBuy, maintained$2+96.1%
Aug 10KBWBuy, maintained$2.75+169.6%
−4.0%average 20-day move after past Buying readings
+4.5%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±8.5%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

UWM seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, UWM averaged +4.5% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+10.5%2021+24.5%2022−1.4%2023−15.2%2024−1.9%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+2.5%4 of 5
Next 10 trading days−0.4%2 of 5
Next 15 trading days+0.5%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days+4.5%2 of 5
Next 30 trading days+4.6%3 of 5

For scale, UWMC’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 10.5%.

UWM market cap and key statistics

UWM’s market cap is $1.55B and revenue of $2.93B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$1.55B
Forward P/E
3.1
EPS, TTM
−$0.11
Gekko Fair Value
$1.64

Trading

Volume
10.68M
Avg volume, 20 days
12.66M
52-week high
$6.15
52-week low
$0.93
Shares outstanding
345.1M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$2.93B
Profit margin
-1.3%
Return on equity
-7.7%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+277.8%

Risk and income

Beta
1.87
Typical daily move
±8.5%
Typical 20-day move
±10.5%
Dividend yield
35.40%

UWM peers

UWM’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
VVisa+0.9%Neutral0.1% below
MAMastercard+0.4%Neutral2.4% below
AXPAmerican Express+1.1%Accumulation9.3% below
COFCapital One Financial+1.0%Neutral12.1% below
URIUnited Rentals+0.4%Neutral7.5% below
RKTRocket Companies−4.1%Accumulation25.9% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

UWM stock FAQ

What is UWM’s market cap?

UWM’s market cap is $1.55B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $1.02, with 345.1M shares outstanding.

What is the UWM stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for UWM is $2.05, +101.0% from the last close. Of the 6 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 2 rate it a buy, 4 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is UWM stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate UWM is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $1.02 is 37.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $1.64. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does UWM report earnings next?

UWM is expected to report on Nov 5, 2026 (24 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.06 per share on revenue of $687.2M. UWM beat the earnings estimate in 2 of its last 8 reports, moving 9.3% on average across the report.

What is UWM’s 52-week high and low?

UWM’s 52-week high is $6.15 and its 52-week low is $0.93; it closed at $1.02 on Oct 12, 2026, −80.7% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $9.74 on Aug 23, 2024.

Is UWM stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex and fair value), 1 as mixed (seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (trend and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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