NYSE: FCF

First (FCF) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Oct 12 close

$20.05+0.16 (+0.8%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryOct 12 close

This week's coverage centers on First Commonwealth Financial Corporation's upcoming third-quarter 2026 results, with the earnings call confirmed for October 28 following the release after market close on October 27. A separate note highlights a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating with an average 12-month price target of $24.20 from six research firms, pointing back to the prior quarter's $0.44 EPS beat and a $0.14 quarterly dividend. A Form 4 filing dated October 11 was also disclosed, reflecting a change in insider ownership.

FCF closed at $20.05, up 0.8%, sitting between its 50-day average of $20.98 and 200-day average of $19.19. The one-month return stands at -5.9%, while the six-month and one-year returns are 6.5% and 20.8% respectively. The GekkoIndex reads 64.8, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, with a five-day change of 0.5. Gekko Fair Value is set at $22.23, putting the current price 9.8% below that level.

Earnings are due on 27 October, 15 days away, falling inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window and historically producing an average absolute reaction of 2%, with the last report drawing a 4.4% move. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the respective 90-day and 30-day windows. Seasonality from this point in the calendar has averaged a 7.9% move over the next 20 trading days across 5 years, with gains in 4 of those years. Analyst coverage from 5 firms shows 3 buy and 2 hold ratings, with a consensus target of $24.07 implying 20% upside.

Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

First price vs fair value

$22.23$20.05Oct ’25Apr ’26Oct ’26
Close $20.05200-day averageGekko Fair Value $22.23

First quick facts

Market cap
$2.04B
P/E ratio
12.3
Forward P/E
10.6
EPS, TTM
$1.63
Revenue, TTM
$507.1M
Profit margin
33.2%
Dividend yield
2.77%
Beta
0.75
Volume
608,002 avg 1.13M
1-year return
+20.8%
Typical daily move
±1.8%
Typical 20-day move
±5.1%
50-day average
$20.98
200-day average
$19.19
Next earnings
Oct 27
Shares outstanding
101.1M
52-week range
$15.00$22.34

First swing-trade checklist

First scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $20.05 sits between the 50-day ($20.98) and 200-day ($19.19) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    64.8, Accumulation

    Reading 64.8 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    9.8% below

    Price is 9.8% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 15 days

    Reports on Oct 27, 2026, 15 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +7.9% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +7.9% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

First stock chart and price history

First closed at $20.05 on Oct 12, 2026, +20.8% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $15.00 to $22.34.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
First share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$16$18$22NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct20.05

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−5.9%
3 months
−1.8%
6 months
+6.5%
1 year
+20.8%
The full FCF chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open FCF in Gekko

Follow First through every session

Put FCF on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About First

First operates as a financial holding company offering a broad range of banking services to individuals and businesses across the United States. On the consumer side, it provides everyday banking tools such as online, mobile, and telephone access, ATM service, checking and savings accounts, debit and credit cards, certificates of deposit, mortgages, installment loans, and retirement accounts. It is recognized for combining these retail banking functions with a wider set of financial offerings under one roof.

Beyond personal banking, First serves business customers through commercial lending and leasing, business checking, cash management, payroll deposit, and ACH origination services. It also extends into wealth-related areas, offering trust and asset management, insurance products covering auto, home, business, and life coverage, and investment services including annuities, mutual funds, and brokerage access through affiliated dealers and agents. Its lending activity further covers commercial and residential real estate, construction financing, and loans tied to agricultural and other financial needs.

The company was established in 1934 and is based in Indiana, Pennsylvania. Its shares trade on the NYSE under the ticker FCF.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Finance
Industry
Regional banks
Website
fcbanking.com

First GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

First’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 64.8, in the Accumulation zone, up 0.5 points over five sessions.

010064.8Accumulation

Up 0.5 points over five sessions.

Reading for Oct 12, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying40+1.5%+1.8%+4.3%+4.2%
Accumulation (current zone)189+0.2%+0.5%+2.4%+5.8%
Neutral411+0.3%+0.8%+1.3%+3.7%
Distribution40−0.6%−1.6%−4.3%−2.4%
Selling2Too few readings yet

Average FCF share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the FCF price, zone by zone.Track FCF in Gekko

Is First stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

First trades 9.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $22.23, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what First shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$22.23

Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026

9.8% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 9.9% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$22$20Aug 2026SepOct 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open FCF in Gekko

First insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for First, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for FCF in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every FCF insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open FCF in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in FCF were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for FCF, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open FCF in Gekko

Buybacks

First has been buying back its own shares.

Latest authorization
$75.00M, Jul 28, 2026
Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$12.06M
As a share of market cap
0.59%
Trailing four quarters
$70.35M

From company filings.

First earnings: next date and track record

First reports on Oct 27, 2026 (15 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports.

3 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±2%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−1.2%Oct ’24−3.6%Jan ’25+0.1%Apr ’25+0.2%Jul ’25−5.0%Oct ’25+0.4%Jan ’26−1.4%Apr ’26+4.4%Jul ’26

Last earnings call, Jul 28, 2026 AI summary

What they said
First Commonwealth Financial reported Q2 2026 core EPS of $0.44, up $0.07 from Q1, with core ROAA of 1.46% and net interest margin expanding 9 basis points to 4.01%. Loan growth was 1.97% annualized despite record commercial payoffs of ~$740M. Fee income rose $2.3M quarter-over-quarter, driven by BOLI claims and debt redemption gains. Credit quality improved modestly with lower nonperforming loan balances.
Guidance
Management expects net loan growth to return toward mid-single-digit targets in H2 2026 as payoffs normalize. NIM is projected to remain in the low 4% range, benefiting from the rate environment but facing pressure from increased deposit competition.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Jul 28, 2026$0.44
est $0.42
+3.9%$139.4M
est $137.5M
+1.4%+4.4%
Apr 28, 2026$0.37
est $0.42
−12.6%$133.7M
est $134.3M
−0.5%−1.4%
Jan 27, 2026$0.43
est $0.42
+2.4%$137.8M
est $135.6M
+1.6%+0.4%
Oct 28, 2025$0.39
est $0.41
−4.9%$136.0M
est $138.0M
−1.5%−5.0%
Jul 29, 2025$0.38
est $0.34
+11.8%$130.9M
est $134.0M
−2.3%+0.2%
Apr 29, 2025$0.32
est $0.32
0.0%$118.0M
est $121.3M
−2.7%+0.1%
Jan 28, 2025$0.35
est $0.36
−2.8%$120.4M
est $119.9M
+0.4%−3.6%
Oct 29, 2024$0.31
est $0.36
−13.9%$121.2M
est $119.4M
+1.5%−1.2%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

First stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for First is $24.07, +20.0% from the last close, from 5 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$24.07consensus 12-month target, +20.0% from the last close
Low $24High $25
Buy3
Hold2
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 5 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 28D.A. DavidsonHold, initiated$24+19.7%
Jul 31Raymond JamesBuy, maintained$24+19.7%
Jul 31KBWHold, maintained$24+19.7%
Jul 30RBC CapitalBuy, maintained$24+19.7%
Jul 30Piper SandlerBuy, reiterated$25+24.7%
+2.4%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+7.9%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±1.8%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

First seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, First averaged +7.9% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+11.7%2021+9.1%2022+3.5%2023+13.2%2024−2.1%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+2.7%3 of 5
Next 10 trading days+1.8%4 of 5
Next 15 trading days+2.9%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days+7.9%4 of 5
Next 30 trading days+8.7%5 of 5

For scale, FCF’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5.1%.

First market cap and key statistics

First’s market cap is $2.04B, with a P/E ratio of 12.3 and revenue of $507.1M over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$2.04B
P/E ratio
12.3
Forward P/E
10.6
EPS, TTM
$1.63
Gekko Fair Value
$22.23

Trading

Volume
608,002
Avg volume, 20 days
1.13M
52-week high
$22.34
52-week low
$15.00
Shares outstanding
101.1M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$507.1M
Profit margin
33.2%
Return on equity
10.9%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+37.5%

Risk and income

Beta
0.75
Typical daily move
±1.8%
Typical 20-day move
±5.1%
Dividend yield
2.77%

First peers

First’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
CMCanadian Imperial Bank of Commerce+0.4%Accumulation5.7% below
USBU.S. Bancorp+0.4%Accumulation11.0% below
NUNu−0.6%Neutral0.7% below
TFCTruist Financial+0.9%Accumulation9.6% below
FITBFifth Third Bancorp+0.1%Accumulation11.2% below
MTBM&T Bank+0.9%Accumulation9.1% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

First stock FAQ

What is First’s market cap?

First’s market cap is $2.04B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $20.05, with 101.1M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 12.3.

What is the First stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for First is $24.07, +20.0% from the last close. Of the 5 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 3 rate it a buy, 2 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is First stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate First is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $20.05 is 9.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $22.23. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does First report earnings next?

First is expected to report on Oct 27, 2026 (15 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.46 per share on revenue of $141.4M. First beat the earnings estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports, moving 2% on average across the report.

What is First’s 52-week high and low?

First’s 52-week high is $22.34 and its 52-week low is $15.00; it closed at $20.05 on Oct 12, 2026, +20.8% over the past year.

Is First stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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