NYSE: SPH

Suburban Propane Partners (SPH) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Oct 12 close

$17.16+0.07 (+0.4%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryOct 12 close

Suburban Propane Partners reported a wider fiscal third-quarter loss of $17.53 million, with revenue of $261.38 million topping analyst estimates by $6.38 million, even as adjusted earnings per unit missed expectations and an adjusted loss of $0.27 per common unit was posted. The stock gained 1.71% on October 2, closing at $16.67 despite the shortfall, and a head-to-head comparison with Southwest Gas also circulated. An amended Schedule 13G filing also surfaced this week, showing a passive stake reported under two names, though this was background to the earnings reaction.

SPH closed at $17.16, up 0.4%, sitting below both its 50-day average of $17.29 and its 200-day average of $18.80, with the 50-day below the 200-day. The GekkoIndex reads 54, placing the stock in the Neutral zone, down 8.6 over five days. Shares trade 35.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $26.79, a gap that stands out against the recent trend.

The next earnings report is scheduled for 12 November 2026, before the open, 30 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior report on 5 February 2026 brought a 1.3% reaction versus an average absolute move of 3.5% across the last 8 quarters, with no beat recorded. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in their respective 90-day and 30-day windows. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 2.4% gain over 5 years, rising in 4 of them, a pattern worth noting alongside the consensus target of $17, which implies -0.9% from current levels.

Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

Suburban Propane Partners price vs fair value

▲$26.79$17.16Oct ’25Apr ’26Oct ’26
Close $17.16200-day averageGekko Fair Value $26.79

Suburban Propane Partners quick facts

Market cap
$1.14B
P/E ratio
8.9
Forward P/E
16.6
EPS, TTM
$1.93
Revenue, TTM
$1.39B
Profit margin
9.4%
Dividend yield
7.66%
Beta
0.39
Volume
127,943 avg 203,285
1-year return
−6.3%
Typical daily move
±1.9%
Typical 20-day move
±3.1%
50-day average
$17.29
200-day average
$18.80
Next earnings
Nov 12 before open
Shares outstanding
66.71M
52-week range
$16.25$20.80

Suburban Propane Partners swing-trade checklist

Suburban Propane Partners scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $17.16 is below the 50-day ($17.29) and 200-day ($18.80) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexmixed

    54, Neutral

    Reading 54 is in the Neutral zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    35.9% below

    Price is 35.9% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 31 days

    Next report Nov 12, 2026, 31 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +2.4% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +2.4% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Suburban Propane Partners stock chart and price history

Suburban Propane Partners closed at $17.16 on Oct 12, 2026, −6.3% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $16.25 to $20.80.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Suburban Propane Partners share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$18$19$20NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct17.16

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
+0.5%
3 months
−6.4%
6 months
−12.7%
1 year
−6.3%
The full SPH chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open SPH in Gekko

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About Suburban Propane Partners

Suburban Propane Partners distributes propane, fuel oil and other refined fuels to customers across the country. Its customer base spans residential, commercial, industrial and agricultural users, numbering around one million and spread across 42 states, served from roughly 700 locations. The company has built its name on this broad, multi-state energy delivery network.

Operations are divided into distinct segments: Propane, Fuel Oil and Refined Fuels, Natural Gas and Electricity, and a category for other activities. Beyond its traditional fuel lines, Suburban Propane has been moving into renewable energy, adding renewable propane and renewable natural gas to its offerings alongside its established products.

The company's units trade on the NYSE under the ticker SPH.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Distribution services
Industry
Wholesale distributors
Website
suburbanpropane.com

Suburban Propane Partners GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Suburban Propane Partners’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 54, in the Neutral zone, down 8.6 points over five sessions.

010054Neutral

Down 8.6 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.

Reading for Oct 12, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying37+2.6%+4.7%+6.0%+6.8%
Accumulation242+0.6%+0.8%+0.7%+0.3%
Neutral (current zone)386−0.6%−1.0%−1.3%−1.9%
Distribution16+0.2%+1.4%+1.9%−1.2%
Selling1Too few readings yet

Average SPH share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the SPH price, zone by zone.Track SPH in Gekko

Is Suburban Propane Partners stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Suburban Propane Partners trades 35.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $26.79, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Suburban Propane Partners shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$26.79

Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026

35.9% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 43.0% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$27$17Aug 2026SepOct 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open SPH in Gekko

Suburban Propane Partners insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Suburban Propane Partners, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for SPH in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every SPH insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open SPH in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in SPH were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for SPH, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open SPH in Gekko

Buybacks

Suburban Propane Partners has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Mar 28, 2026
$14K
As a share of market cap
0.00%

From company filings.

Suburban Propane Partners earnings: next date and track record

Suburban Propane Partners reports on Nov 12, 2026, before the open (31 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 0 of its last 8 reports.

0 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.5%average move across the report
2 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−7.7%May ’24+0.7%Aug ’24−6.2%Nov ’24−2.5%Feb ’25−5.7%May ’25−0.3%Aug ’25+3.8%Nov ’25−1.3%Feb ’26

Last earnings call, Feb 5, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Suburban Propane Partners reported a strong fiscal Q1 2026 driven by colder-than-typical weather in the Eastern U.S., which resulted in a 4.2% increase in retail propane gallons sold and an 10.8% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $83.4 million. Net income rose to $46.6 million ($0.70 per common unit) from $38.0 million the prior year. Management highlighted operational resilience amid harsh weather, continued customer growth and retention efforts, and progress in renewable natural gas (RNG) projects, including improved uptime at Stanfield, AZ, commissioning at a new Upstate NY digester, and construction progress in Columbus, OH. The Board declared a quarterly distribution of $0.0325 per common unit (annualized $1.30) with distribution coverage of 2.19x for the trailing twelve months. Management emphasized a strong operational and financial position to meet increased demand and execute strategic growth plans while remaining disciplined on the balance sheet.
Guidance
Board declared quarterly distribution of $0.0325 per common unit (annualized $1.30). RNG capital projects on track for completion toward the end of the second fiscal quarter with RNG injections scheduled thereafter. No other specific numerical revenue or earnings guidance provided.
Risks flagged
Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties outlined in the company's press release and SEC filings. Specific risks referenced include weather variability affecting demand, operational challenges from severe weather, and commodity price fluctuations (wholesale propane prices decreased 14% year-over-year). Management also noted general cautionary language around forward-looking statements and the need for disclosures in the Form 10-K and Form 10-Q.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Feb 5, 2026$0.70
est $0.73
−4.1%$326.4M
est $392.0M
−16.7%−1.3%
Nov 13, 2025−$0.54
est −$0.51
−6.3%$211.4M
est $227.0M
−6.9%+3.8%
Aug 7, 2025−$0.23
est −$0.19
−21.1%$260.1M
est $227.0M
+14.6%−0.3%
May 8, 2025$2.10
est $2.21
−5.0%$587.7M
est $270.0M
+117.7%−5.7%
Feb 6, 2025$0.58
est $0.76
−23.7%$373.3M
est $543.0M
−31.2%−2.5%
Nov 14, 2024−$0.54
est −$0.48
−12.5%$1.33B
est $237.0M
+460.0%−6.2%
Aug 8, 2024−$0.27
est −$0.17
−58.8%$254.6M
est $277.0M
−8.1%+0.7%
May 9, 2024$1.72
est $1.89
−9.0%$498.1M
est $511.0M
−2.5%−7.7%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Suburban Propane Partners stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Suburban Propane Partners is $17.00, −0.9% from the last close.

$17.00consensus 12-month target, −0.9% from the last close
−1.3%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+2.4%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±1.9%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Suburban Propane Partners seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Suburban Propane Partners averaged +2.4% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−0.9%2021+3.4%2022+6.1%2023+1.3%2024+1.1%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+2.2%4 of 5
Next 10 trading days+3.3%5 of 5
Next 15 trading days+3.3%5 of 5
Next 20 trading days+2.4%4 of 5
Next 30 trading days+0.6%2 of 5

For scale, SPH’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 3.1%.

Suburban Propane Partners market cap and key statistics

Suburban Propane Partners’s market cap is $1.14B, with a P/E ratio of 8.9 and revenue of $1.39B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$1.14B
P/E ratio
8.9
Forward P/E
16.6
EPS, TTM
$1.93
Gekko Fair Value
$26.79

Trading

Volume
127,943
Avg volume, 20 days
203,285
52-week high
$20.80
52-week low
$16.25
Shares outstanding
66.71M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$1.39B
Profit margin
9.4%
Return on equity
19.2%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−1.9%

Risk and income

Beta
0.39
Typical daily move
±1.9%
Typical 20-day move
±3.1%
Dividend yield
7.66%

Suburban Propane Partners stock news this week

Coverage of Suburban Propane Partners this week reads negative: 0 positive, 1 neutral and 2 negative headlines.

News sentiment negative

Suburban Propane Partners peers

Suburban Propane Partners’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
GWWW.W. Grainger+0.9%Neutral22.6% above
FASTFastenal+1.0%Neutral29.5% above
FERGFerguson Enterprises+0.8%Accumulation4.7% below
GPCGenuine Parts+2.2%Neutral7.1% above
WCCWESCO International−1.4%Neutral16.9% above
AITApplied Industrial Technologies−0.2%Neutral2.7% above

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Suburban Propane Partners stock FAQ

What is Suburban Propane Partners’s market cap?

Suburban Propane Partners’s market cap is $1.14B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $17.16, with 66.71M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 8.9.

What is the Suburban Propane Partners stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Suburban Propane Partners is $17.00, −0.9% from the last close. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Suburban Propane Partners stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Suburban Propane Partners is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $17.16 is 35.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $26.79. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Suburban Propane Partners report earnings next?

Suburban Propane Partners is expected to report on Nov 12, 2026, before the market opens (31 days away). Analysts expect earnings of −$0.58 per share on revenue of $217.0M. Suburban Propane Partners beat the earnings estimate in 0 of its last 8 reports, moving 3.5% on average across the report.

What is Suburban Propane Partners’s 52-week high and low?

Suburban Propane Partners’s 52-week high is $20.80 and its 52-week low is $16.25; it closed at $17.16 on Oct 12, 2026, −6.3% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $22.33 on Dec 22, 2023.

Is Suburban Propane Partners stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (fair value, earnings risk and seasonality), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 1 as a headwind (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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