Insider buying last 90 days
$249Kin 1 open-market purchase
| Filed | Insider | Type | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14 | Kraft Robert O. officer: CFO and Treasurer | Purchase | $249K |
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
NASDAQ: HLMN
Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$7.11+0.14 (+2.0%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeHillman Solutions trades near its 52-week low this week as Stifel reiterated a buy rating with a $12 price target, noting the stock's undervaluation. Separately, Wall Street analysts carry a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating with an average 12-month price target of $12.67, based on coverage from six brokerages. The company also confirmed it will release third-quarter 2026 earnings after market close on 2 November, with a conference call the following morning featuring CEO Jon Michael Adinolfi and CFO Rocky Kraft.
Shares closed at $7.11, up 2% on the day, but sit below both the 50-day average of $7.76 and the 200-day average of $8.26, with the 50-day below the 200-day. The stock has fallen 19.2% over six months and 23% over the past year, though it has gained 1.9% over the past month. The GekkoIndex reads 61.4, placing HLMN in the Accumulation zone. Gekko Fair Value stands at $11.78, putting the current price 39.6% below that level.
Earnings arrive on 2 November, 20 days out, placing the release inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the last report saw a 20.8% reaction, and average absolute moves around results have run 9.4%. Insider activity over the past 90 days includes one open-market purchase worth $248,500. Seasonality over five years shows the next 20 trading days averaging a 1% gain, with gains in 3 of those years. Analyst coverage from 4 firms shows 3 buy ratings and 1 hold.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Hillman Solutions price vs fair value
Close $7.11200-day averageGekko Fair Value $11.78
Hillman Solutions quick facts
- Market cap
- $1.40B
- P/E ratio
- 35.1
- Forward P/E
- 9.4
- EPS, TTM
- $0.20
- Revenue, TTM
- $1.60B
- Profit margin
- 2.6%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 1.42
- Volume
- 1.21M avg 1.75M
- 1-year return
- −23.0%
- Typical daily move
- ±3%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±7.2%
- 50-day average
- $7.76
- 200-day average
- $8.26
- Next earnings
- Nov 2 before open
- Shares outstanding
- 194.5M
Hillman Solutions swing-trade checklist
Hillman Solutions scores 4 supportive, 0 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
4 supportive0 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $7.11 is below the 50-day ($7.76) and 200-day ($8.26) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
61.4, Accumulation
Reading 61.4 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
39.6% below
Price is 39.6% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 90 days: 1 open-market insider purchase.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 21 days
Reports on Nov 2, 2026, 21 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+1.0% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +1% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Hillman Solutions stock chart and price history
Hillman Solutions closed at $7.11 on Oct 12, 2026, −23.0% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $6.66 to $10.85.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +1.9%
- 3 months
- −10.5%
- 6 months
- −19.2%
- 1 year
- −23.0%
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About Hillman Solutions
Hillman Solutions supplies hardware and related merchandising products across North America. Its range covers everyday items such as door hinges, anchor shackles, garage door parts, gate hooks and latches, storage pieces, corner braces and springs, along with a wide line of fasteners including bolts, nuts, screws, anchors, nails, rivets, washers and kits. The company also offers signage, stencils, driveway markers, threaded rods, aluminum profiles, wall-hanging systems, adhesives, mirrors, protective gear, key cutting and engraving, and electrical, plumbing and automotive accessories.
These products reach the market under a number of brand names, among them Hillman, Gorilla Grip, Deck Plus, Minute Key, PowerPro, OOK, AWP, OZCO, The Steel Works and Digz. Hillman Solutions sells to a mix of buyers, including independent hardware stores, home centers, mass merchants, pet supply and other retail chains, as well as industrial equipment manufacturers.
The corporation traces its founding to 1964 and operates out of Cincinnati, Ohio. Hillman Solutions is listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker HLMN.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Distribution services
- Industry
- Wholesale distributors
- Website
- hillmangroup.com
Hillman Solutions GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Hillman Solutions’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 61.4, in the Accumulation zone, down 5.7 points over five sessions.
61.4Accumulation
Down 5.7 points over five sessions.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 54 | +1.3% | +3.2% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 258 | −0.3% | +0.2% | ||
| Neutral | 337 | +0.1% | −0.7% | ||
| Distribution | 32 | −1.6% | −3.5% | ||
| Selling | 1 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average HLMN share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the HLMN price, zone by zone.Track HLMN in Gekko
Is Hillman Solutions stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Hillman Solutions trades 39.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $11.78, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Hillman Solutions shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$11.78
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
39.6% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 39.2% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open HLMN in Gekko
Hillman Solutions insider and Congress trading
Insiders filed 1 open-market purchase in Hillman Solutions worth $249K, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in HLMN were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for HLMN, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open HLMN in Gekko
Buybacks
Hillman Solutions has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 27, 2026
- $13.28M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.95%
From company filings.
Hillman Solutions earnings: next date and track record
Hillman Solutions reports on Nov 2, 2026, before the open (21 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 2, 2026
Expected before the open, 21 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.21
- Revenue estimate
- $460.8M
3 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±9.4%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 3, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Hillman Solutions reported strong Q2 2026 results and announced a definitive agreement to acquire Kanebridge Corporation, a leading industrial channel fastener master distributor. The acquisition doubles Hillman's industrial business from ~$65M to ~$130M. Kanebridge's model mirrors Hillman's specialty SKU, long-tail distribution approach. Hillman sees industrial as a major growth channel alongside DIY and pro-distribution, where it holds only ~3% share of a ~$10B market.
- Guidance
- Management did not provide specific numerical guidance in this excerpt. Full guidance details were expected to be covered by CFO Rocky Kraft later in the call. Strategic growth targets focus on industrial channel expansion and pro-distribution market share gains.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | $0.17 est $0.17 | $442.3M est $433.7M | +20.8% |
| Apr 27, 2026 | $0.07 est $0.08 | $370.1M est $371.7M | −5.4% |
| Feb 17, 2026 | $0.10 est $0.10 | $365.1M est $371.8M | −11.9% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $0.22 est $0.18 | $424.9M est $371.7M | −1.7% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | $0.17 est $0.15 | $402.8M est $427.1M | +23.0% |
| Apr 29, 2025 | $0.10 est $0.10 | $359.3M est $389.4M | −7.7% |
| Feb 18, 2025 | $0.10 est $0.11 | $349.6M est $362.7M | −1.2% |
| Nov 5, 2024 | $0.16 est $0.16 | $393.3M est $351.6M | +3.8% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Hillman Solutions stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Hillman Solutions is $12.00, +68.8% from the last close, from 4 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$12.00consensus 12-month target, +68.8% from the last close
Now $7.11Avg $12.00
Low $11High $14
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 4 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | Stifel Nicolaus | $12 | +68.8% |
| Oct 1 | Canaccord Genuity | $13 | +82.8% |
| Aug 10 | Barclays | $11 | +54.7% |
| Aug 5 | Benchmark Co. | $14 | +96.9% |
| Aug 5 | Canaccord Genuity | $14 | +96.9% |
+0.2%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+1.0%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Hillman Solutions seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Hillman Solutions averaged +1.0% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +1.4% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −1.5% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +0.2% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +1.0% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | −3.1% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, HLMN’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 7.2%.
Hillman Solutions market cap and key statistics
Hillman Solutions’s market cap is $1.40B, with a P/E ratio of 35.1 and revenue of $1.60B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $1.40B
- P/E ratio
- 35.1
- Forward P/E
- 9.4
- EPS, TTM
- $0.20
- Gekko Fair Value
- $11.78
Trading
- Volume
- 1.21M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 1.75M
- 52-week high
- $10.85
- 52-week low
- $6.66
- Shares outstanding
- 194.5M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $1.60B
- Profit margin
- 2.6%
- Return on equity
- 3.4%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +34.8%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 1.42
- Typical daily move
- ±3%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±7.2%
Hillman Solutions stock news this week
Coverage of Hillman Solutions this week reads positive: 3 positive, 2 neutral and 0 negative headlines.
- 2,586,097 Hillman Solutions Corp. $HLMN Shares Sold by Reinhart Partners LLC.MarketBeat, Oct 10
- Stifel reiterates Hillman Solutions stock rating at buy, $12 target By Investing.comInvesting.com Nigeria, Oct 7
- Hillman Solutions Corp. to Host Third-Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call on November 3Quiver Quantitative, Oct 7
- Hillman Sets Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Results Presentation DateStreetInsider, Oct 7
- Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:HLMN) Stock Rated "Moderate Buy" by Wall Street AnalystsMarketBeat, Oct 6
- Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:HLMN) Stock Rated “Moderate Buy” by Wall Street AnalystsDefense World, Oct 6
Hillman Solutions peers
Hillman Solutions’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| GWWW.W. Grainger | Neutral | 22.6% above |
| FASTFastenal | Neutral | 29.5% above |
| FERGFerguson Enterprises | Accumulation | 4.7% below |
| GPCGenuine Parts | Neutral | 7.1% above |
| WCCWESCO International | Neutral | 16.9% above |
| AITApplied Industrial Technologies | Neutral | 2.7% above |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Hillman Solutions stock FAQ
What is Hillman Solutions’s market cap?
Hillman Solutions’s market cap is $1.40B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $7.11, with 194.5M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 35.1.
What is the Hillman Solutions stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Hillman Solutions is $12.00, +68.8% from the last close. Of the 4 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 3 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Hillman Solutions stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Hillman Solutions is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $7.11 is 39.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $11.78. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Hillman Solutions report earnings next?
Hillman Solutions is expected to report on Nov 2, 2026, before the market opens (21 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.21 per share on revenue of $460.8M. Hillman Solutions beat the earnings estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports, moving 9.4% on average across the report.
What is Hillman Solutions’s 52-week high and low?
Hillman Solutions’s 52-week high is $10.85 and its 52-week low is $6.66; it closed at $7.11 on Oct 12, 2026, −23.0% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $12.45 on Jun 6, 2022.
Is Hillman Solutions stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, smart money and seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (trend and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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