Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for FAST in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every FAST insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open FAST in Gekko
NASDAQ: FAST
Fastenal (FAST) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Nov 4 close
$53.21+0.88 (+1.7%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryNov 4 closeFastenal's stock has drawn attention this week from a mix of ETF flow activity and valuation commentary. Net ETF outflows of $50.9 million on October 30 were noted across multiple reports, tied to selling from funds including SDY, NOBL and KNG, marking a second consecutive day of net selling despite more funds buying than selling. Separately, commentary following the Q3 report questioned further upside given the shares trading above perceived fair value, while other coverage highlighted a 45.3% gross margin, 20.5% operating margin, and 32.3% five-year ROIC as context for the post-earnings buy-sell-hold debate.
Fastenal closed at $53.21, up 1.7%, sitting above both its 50-day average of $50.58 and 200-day average of $47.35, with the shorter average above the longer one. The GekkoIndex reading of 50.4 places the stock in the Neutral zone, down 3.9 points over the past five readings. Price stands 27.1% above the Gekko Fair Value of $41.87.
The next earnings date falls on 19 January 2027, 75 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day holding window. Smart money activity over the past 90 days shows one Congressional buy and no sales. Seasonality data covering five years shows the next 20 trading days from this point averaging a 2.8% return, with gains in 4 of those years. The stock remains below its 52-week high of $53.86, with analyst consensus among 10 firms split between 3 buy, 5 hold and 2 sell ratings, and a consensus target of $51.07.
Written by AI from the Nov 4, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Fastenal price vs fair value
Close $53.21200-day averageGekko Fair Value $41.87
Fastenal quick facts
- Market cap
- $61.05B
- P/E ratio
- 42.7
- Forward P/E
- 37
- EPS, TTM
- $1.23
- Revenue, TTM
- $9.08B
- Profit margin
- 15.6%
- Dividend yield
- 1.85%
- Beta
- 0.66
- Volume
- 10.84M avg 8.44M
- 1-year return
- +29.7%
- Typical daily move
- ±2.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4.6%
- 50-day average
- $50.58
- 200-day average
- $47.35
- Next earnings
- Jan 19
- Shares outstanding
- 1.15B
Fastenal swing-trade checklist
Fastenal scores 4 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
4 supportive1 mixed1 headwind
- Trendsupportive
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $53.21 is above the 50-day ($50.58) and 200-day ($47.35) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
50.4, Neutral
Reading 50.4 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valueheadwind
27.1% above
Price is 27.1% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 90 days: Congress 1 buy / 0 sales.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 75 days
Next report Jan 19, 2027, 75 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+2.8% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +2.8% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Fastenal stock chart and price history
Fastenal closed at $53.21 on Nov 4, 2026, +29.7% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $38.97 to $53.86.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +4.7%
- 3 months
- +4.7%
- 6 months
- +19.0%
- 1 year
- +29.7%
The full FAST chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open FAST in Gekko
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About Fastenal
Fastenal acts as a wholesale source for materials used in industry and construction, reaching buyers in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and additional markets abroad. Its main business centers on fasteners like bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and washers, items commonly needed in manufacturing lines, construction sites, and machine upkeep. Alongside these, Fastenal stocks a broader mix of hardware pieces such as pins, keys for machinery, anchors for concrete, framing hardware made of metal, wire rope, strut parts, rivets, and the accessories that go with them.
The company works with a broad mix of buyers, from equipment makers to maintenance crews inside manufacturing plants, plus contractors handling general building, electrical work, plumbing, sheet metal, and road projects. It also counts farms, trucking and rail operators, mining firms, schools, stores, and companies in oil and gas among its clients, together with government offices at the federal, state, and local level. To get products to these groups, Fastenal relies on a large web of local branch locations backed by a handful of major distribution hubs.
Fastenal got its start in 1967 and runs its main offices out of Winona, Minnesota. Its stock trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker FAST.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Distribution services
- Industry
- Wholesale distributors
- Website
- fastenal.com
Fastenal GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Fastenal’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 50.4, in the Neutral zone, down 3.9 points over five sessions.
50.4Neutral
Down 3.9 points over five sessions.
Reading for Nov 4, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 27 | −0.9% | −0.8% | ||
| Accumulation | 184 | +0.6% | +1.2% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 436 | +0.5% | +1.6% | ||
| Distribution | 47 | −0.9% | +1.5% | ||
| Selling | 3 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average FAST share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.0% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the FAST price, zone by zone.Track FAST in Gekko
Is Fastenal stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Fastenal trades 27.1% above Gekko Fair Value of $41.87, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Fastenal shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$41.87
Gekko Fair Value, Nov 4, 2026
27.1% Overvalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 22.1% above the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open FAST in Gekko
Fastenal insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Fastenal, and members of Congress disclosed 1 purchase and 0 sales, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
1trade disclosed: 1 purchase and 0 sales.
| Member | Amount | Disclosed |
|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna House, CA, purchase | $1,001 - $15,000 | Oct 9 traded Sep 4 |
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Buybacks
Fastenal has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026
- $30.50M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.05%
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Dec 31
0of the funds Gekko tracks hold FAST.
0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Fastenal earnings: next date and track record
Fastenal reports on Jan 19, 2027 (75 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Jan 19, 2027
75 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.31
- Revenue estimate
- $2.32B
5 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±4.6%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Oct 14, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Fastenal reported Q3 2026 net sales of $2.46 billion, up 15.5% year-over-year, with operating margin expanding 90 basis points to 21.5%. Operating income increased $90 million, the largest single-quarter year-over-year increase in company history. Growth was driven by market share gains through key account strategy, with contract customers representing 76% of sales growing 18.8%. Sites spending $50K+ monthly grew 19% to ~3,300, with sales from those sites up 28%.
- Guidance
- Management did not provide explicit forward-looking financial targets in this excerpt. Growth is expected to moderate on pricing contributions as the company laps 2025-2026 pricing peaks, with continued focus on key account signings and FMI installed base expansion.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | $0.35 est $0.34 | $2.46B est $2.44B | −2.0% |
| Jul 14, 2026 | $0.33 est $0.33 | $2.39B est $2.34B | −3.6% |
| Apr 13, 2026 | $0.30 est $0.30 | $2.20B est $2.20B | −9.3% |
| Jan 20, 2026 | $0.26 est $0.26 | $2.03B est $2.04B | +2.0% |
| Oct 13, 2025 | $0.29 est $0.30 | $2.13B est $2.13B | −6.6% |
| Jul 14, 2025 | $0.29 est $0.28 | $2.08B est $2.07B | +4.3% |
| Apr 11, 2025 | $0.26 est $0.26 | $1.96B est $1.95B | +7.3% |
| Jan 17, 2025 | $0.23 est $0.24 | $1.82B est $1.84B | +1.8% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Fastenal stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Fastenal is $51.07, −4.0% from the last close, from 10 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$51.07consensus 12-month target, −4.0% from the last close
Now $53.21Avg $51.07
Low $46High $60
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 10 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 | Morgan Stanley | $52 | −2.3% |
| Oct 29 | Morgan Stanley | $52 | −2.3% |
| Oct 23 | Bank of America Securities | $55 | +3.4% |
| Oct 15 | Barclays | $46 | −13.6% |
| Oct 15 | KeyBanc | — | — |
+1.6%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+2.8%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.2%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Fastenal seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Nov 4, Fastenal averaged +2.8% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +2.9% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +2.4% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +2.6% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +2.8% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +2.4% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, FAST’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 4.6%.
Fastenal market cap and key statistics
Fastenal’s market cap is $61.05B, with a P/E ratio of 42.7 and revenue of $9.08B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $61.05B
- P/E ratio
- 42.7
- Forward P/E
- 37
- EPS, TTM
- $1.23
- Gekko Fair Value
- $41.87
Trading
- Volume
- 10.84M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 8.44M
- 52-week high
- $53.86
- 52-week low
- $38.97
- Shares outstanding
- 1.15B
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $9.08B
- Profit margin
- 15.6%
- Return on equity
- 35.3%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +20.7%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.66
- Typical daily move
- ±2.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4.6%
- Dividend yield
- 1.85%
Fastenal stock news this week
Coverage of Fastenal this week reads positive: 10 positive, 9 neutral and 6 negative headlines.
- Fastenal stock faces $50.9 million ETF outflowad-hoc-news.de, Nov 4
- 28,212 Fastenal Company $FAST Shares Acquired by Vise Technologies Inc.MarketBeat, Nov 4
- Fastenal Company $FAST Shares Newly Purchased by Summit Wealth Group LLC Co.MarketBeat, Nov 4
- 28,556 Shares of Fastenal Company $FAST Acquired by GRIMES & Co WEALTH MANAGEMENT LLCMarketBeat, Nov 4
- Fastenal (FAST) Looks Fully Valued As ETF Outflows Test Its Growth StorySimply Wall St, Nov 4
- Fastenal Company (FAST.VI) Seasonal returns chartYahoo Finance Australia, Nov 3
Fastenal peers
Fastenal’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| GWWW.W. Grainger | Distribution | 37.9% above |
| FERGFerguson Enterprises | Distribution | 8.9% above |
| GPCGenuine Parts | Neutral | 0.5% above |
| WCCWESCO International | Accumulation | 1.8% above |
| QXOQXO | Neutral | 47.8% below |
| AITApplied Industrial Technologies | Accumulation | 7.0% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Fastenal stock FAQ
What is Fastenal’s market cap?
Fastenal’s market cap is $61.05B at the Nov 4, 2026 close of $53.21, with 1.15B shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 42.7.
What is the Fastenal stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Fastenal is $51.07, −4.0% from the last close. Of the 10 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 3 rate it a buy, 5 a hold and 2 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Fastenal stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Fastenal is overvalued: the Nov 4, 2026 close of $53.21 is 27.1% above Gekko Fair Value of $41.87. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Fastenal report earnings next?
Fastenal is expected to report on Jan 19, 2027 (75 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.31 per share on revenue of $2.32B. Fastenal beat the earnings estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, moving 4.6% on average across the report.
What is Fastenal’s 52-week high and low?
Fastenal’s 52-week high is $53.86 and its 52-week low is $38.97; it closed at $53.21 on Nov 4, 2026, +29.7% over the past year.
Is Fastenal stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (trend, smart money, earnings risk and seasonality), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 1 as a headwind (fair value). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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