Insider buying last 90 days
$199Kin 1 open-market purchase
| Filed | Insider | Type | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10 | Cecil W. Jones Director | Purchase | $199K |
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
NYSE: OBK
Origin Bancorp (OBK) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$51.87+0.31 (+0.6%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeThis week brings scheduling news rather than operating results, as Origin Bancorp confirmed it will release third-quarter 2026 earnings after market close on 28 October, followed by a conference call on 29 October led by CEO Drake Mills, CFO William J. Wallace IV, and Origin Bank CEO Lance Hall. A separate item notes the resignation of board member Dr. Richard Gallot, Jr., while a comparison piece weighs OBK against HSBC and another notes the stock looks cheap relative to fair value.
OBK closed at $51.87, up 0.6%, sitting between its 50-day average of $53.47 and 200-day average of $47.37, with the one-month return at -4.7% against a six-month gain of 15.2%. The GekkoIndex reads 66.3, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, and the current price sits 7% below Gekko Fair Value of $55.79.
Earnings arrive on 28 October, 16 days away and inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the last report showed EPS of $1.09 against a $1 estimate with a 1.4% reaction. Over the past 90 days, one insider purchase totaling $199,282 was recorded. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 10% return over 5 years, rising in 5 of them. Analyst consensus across 4 firms carries a $59.20 target, implying 14.1% upside.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Origin Bancorp price vs fair value
Close $51.87200-day averageGekko Fair Value $55.79
Origin Bancorp quick facts
- Market cap
- $1.60B
- P/E ratio
- 16.5
- Forward P/E
- —
- EPS, TTM
- $3.18
- Revenue, TTM
- $377.3M
- Profit margin
- 26.4%
- Dividend yield
- 1.34%
- Beta
- 0.74
- Volume
- 184,323 avg 181,020
- 1-year return
- +50.6%
- Typical daily move
- ±1.9%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.9%
- 50-day average
- $53.47
- 200-day average
- $47.37
- Next earnings
- Oct 28 before open
- Shares outstanding
- 30.85M
Origin Bancorp swing-trade checklist
Origin Bancorp scores 4 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
4 supportive1 mixed1 headwind
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $51.87 sits between the 50-day ($53.47) and 200-day ($47.37) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
66.3, Accumulation
Reading 66.3 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
7.0% below
Price is 7% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 90 days: 1 open-market insider purchase.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 16 days
Reports on Oct 28, 2026, 16 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+10.0% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +10% over 5 years, rising in 5 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Origin Bancorp stock chart and price history
Origin Bancorp closed at $51.87 on Oct 12, 2026, +50.6% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $32.13 to $55.57.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −4.7%
- 3 months
- +2.0%
- 6 months
- +15.2%
- 1 year
- +50.6%
The full OBK chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open OBK in Gekko
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Origin Bancorp GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Origin Bancorp’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 66.3, in the Accumulation zone, up 7.6 points over five sessions.
66.3Accumulation
Up 7.6 points over five sessions, from the Neutral zone.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 23 | +1.2% | +2.6% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 202 | +0.7% | +4.4% | ||
| Neutral | 391 | +0.5% | +1.6% | ||
| Distribution | 64 | −0.7% | −3.8% | ||
| Selling | 2 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average OBK share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the OBK price, zone by zone.Track OBK in Gekko
Is Origin Bancorp stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Origin Bancorp trades 7.0% below Gekko Fair Value of $55.79, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Origin Bancorp shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$55.79
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
7.0% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 6.0% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open OBK in Gekko
Origin Bancorp insider and Congress trading
Insiders filed 1 open-market purchase in Origin Bancorp worth $199K, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in OBK were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for OBK, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open OBK in Gekko
Buybacks
Origin Bancorp has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $10.11M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.63%
- Trailing four quarters
- $28.37M
From company filings.
Origin Bancorp earnings: next date and track record
Origin Bancorp reports on Oct 28, 2026, before the open (16 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 28, 2026
Expected before the open, 16 days away
- EPS estimate
- $1.06
- Revenue estimate
- $111.6M
5 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±2.5%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 22, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Origin Bancorp reported a strong Q2 2026 with clear evidence that its Optimize Origin program is driving improved profitability and disciplined growth. Key financial results included diluted EPS of $1.09, net income of $33.8 million, ROA of 1.35% (above the near-term target of 1.15%), and NIM expansion to 3.92% (+21 bps). Loan balances grew sequentially (2.7%) with notable production coming from Texas and Southeast markets; the company added 27 experienced bankers year-to-date and opened a Birmingham, AL market. Credit metrics improved: low past dues (0.06% 30–89 days), annualized net charge-offs of 0.02% for the quarter, and non-performing assets fell to 0.98% of loans. Management emphasized disciplined pricing, growth in noninterest-bearing deposits (strong sequential growth), and strategic investments in technology and talent. Forward-looking commentary guided mid- to high-single-digit loan and deposit growth for the year (tracking toward the high end), net interest income growth in the high-single-digits for the full year and Q4-over-Q4, and an expectation that NIM will remain relatively flat for the remainder of the year (after removing Fed rate actions from the forecast). Management reiterated a multi-year objective to reach top-quartile performance and discussed capital deployment including a new share repurchase authorization. Overall tone was confident and constructive, while acknowledging competitive pressures on loan/deposit pricing, Durbin Amendment impacts, and liquidity/seasonality considerations.
- Guidance
- - Target loan and deposit growth: mid- to high-single-digits for the year (tracking toward the higher end). - Net interest margin: expect to remain relatively flat for the remainder of the year (Fed actions removed from forecast). - Net interest income: now anticipated to grow in the high single digits for both the full year and Q4 over Q4. - Durbin Amendment impact: expected mid-year next year in the $4M–$4.5M range; management is pursuing offsets. - Capital deployment: repurchase authorization expected to be driven by holding-company cash availability and valuation considerations. - Strategic goal: reach top-quartile peer performance within the next three years.
- Risks flagged
- - Competitive pressure on loan and deposit pricing (spread/term compression and competitors offering non-recourse deals). - Deposit seasonality and liquidity risk (2Q decline in deposits and the potential for deposits to grow faster than loans, which could pressure NIM). - Durbin Amendment impact (~$4.0M–$4.5M mid-next year) could reduce interchange-related revenue without offsets. - Volatility in non-core fee income (e.g., Argent-related income is estimated and has been more volatile). - Potential margin pressure in future periods if deposit costs rise or if competition forces lower loan spreads.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | $1.09 est $1.00 | $107.6M est $108.0M | +1.4% |
| Apr 22, 2026 | $0.90 est $0.90 | $104.0M est $104.0M | +2.7% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | $0.95 est $0.88 | $103.4M est $100.2M | +3.8% |
| Oct 22, 2025 | $0.27 est $0.89 | $108.3M est $100.1M | −3.3% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | $0.47 est $0.78 | $84.74M est $98.41M | −0.7% |
| Apr 23, 2025 | $0.71 est $0.68 | $95.15M est $96.37M | +2.2% |
| Jan 22, 2025 | $0.83 est $0.52 | $77.59M est $89.46M | +3.8% |
| Oct 23, 2024 | $0.68 est $0.64 | $90.04M est $93.50M | −2.1% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Origin Bancorp stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Origin Bancorp is $59.20, +14.1% from the last close, from 4 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$59.20consensus 12-month target, +14.1% from the last close
Now $51.87Avg $59.20
Low $56High $60
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 4 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | Raymond James | $58 | +11.8% |
| Sep 25 | StoneX | — | — |
| Aug 4 | KBW | $60 | +15.7% |
| Jul 24 | Piper Sandler | $56 | +8.0% |
| Jul 23 | Raymond James | $56 | +8.0% |
+4.4%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+10.0%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±1.9%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Origin Bancorp seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Origin Bancorp averaged +10.0% across the last 5 years, rising in 5 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +3.6% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +1.6% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +4.9% | 5 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +10.0% | 5 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +9.3% | 5 of 5 |
For scale, OBK’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5.9%.
Origin Bancorp market cap and key statistics
Origin Bancorp’s market cap is $1.60B, with a P/E ratio of 16.5 and revenue of $377.3M over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $1.60B
- P/E ratio
- 16.5
- EPS, TTM
- $3.18
- Gekko Fair Value
- $55.79
Trading
- Volume
- 184,323
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 181,020
- 52-week high
- $55.57
- 52-week low
- $32.13
- Shares outstanding
- 30.85M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $377.3M
- Profit margin
- 26.4%
- Return on equity
- 8%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +132.1%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.74
- Typical daily move
- ±1.9%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.9%
- Dividend yield
- 1.34%
Origin Bancorp stock news this week
Coverage of Origin Bancorp this week reads neutral: 2 positive, 8 neutral and 0 negative headlines.
- Financial Survey: HSBC (NYSE:HSBC) and Origin Bancorp (NYSE:OBK)Defense World, Oct 12
- Origin Bancorp Schedules Q3 2026 Earnings ReleaseThe Globe and Mail, Oct 11
- Origin Bancorp (OBK) Stock Looks Cheap Relative To Fair ValueYahoo Finance, Oct 10
- What Does Origin Bancorp (OBK) Board Member Richard Gallot Jr.'s Resignation Mean?Yahoo Finance, Oct 10
- Origin Bancorp, Inc. Announces Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Callmarkets.businessinsider.com, Oct 9
- Origin Bancorp to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Results on October 28 and Host Conference Call on October 29Quiver Quantitative, Oct 9
Origin Bancorp peers
Origin Bancorp’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| CMCanadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | Accumulation | 5.7% below |
| USBU.S. Bancorp | Accumulation | 11.0% below |
| NUNu | Neutral | 0.7% below |
| TFCTruist Financial | Accumulation | 9.6% below |
| FITBFifth Third Bancorp | Accumulation | 11.2% below |
| MTBM&T Bank | Accumulation | 9.1% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Origin Bancorp stock FAQ
What is Origin Bancorp’s market cap?
Origin Bancorp’s market cap is $1.60B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $51.87, with 30.85M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 16.5.
What is the Origin Bancorp stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Origin Bancorp is $59.20, +14.1% from the last close. Of the 4 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 2 rate it a buy, 2 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Origin Bancorp stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Origin Bancorp is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $51.87 is 7.0% below Gekko Fair Value of $55.79. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Origin Bancorp report earnings next?
Origin Bancorp is expected to report on Oct 28, 2026, before the market opens (16 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.06 per share on revenue of $111.6M. Origin Bancorp beat the earnings estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, moving 2.5% on average across the report.
What is Origin Bancorp’s 52-week high and low?
Origin Bancorp’s 52-week high is $55.57 and its 52-week low is $32.13; it closed at $51.87 on Oct 12, 2026, +50.6% over the past year.
Is Origin Bancorp stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, smart money and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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