NASDAQ: HFWA

Heritage Financial (HFWA) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Oct 12 close

$27.24+0.08 (+0.3%)
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Gekko Brief

AI summaryOct 12 close

A passive ownership filing this week disclosed that Dimensional Fund Advisors LP holds a 5.5% beneficial stake in Heritage Financial, totaling 2,269,348 common shares as of September 30, 2026. The company's prior earnings call had framed a positive narrative around margin expansion and a pending Olympic Bancorp merger, with management citing higher adjusted EPS, up 18% quarter over quarter and 29% year over year, a stronger ROA of 1.29%, and improved net interest margin tied to loan mix and rate dynamics.

HFWA closes at $27.24, sitting between its 50-day average of $28.67 and 200-day average of $27.52, with returns of -4.1% over one month, -8% over three months, and 15.7% over the past year. The GekkoIndex reads 65.4, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, up 1.5 over the past five sessions. Price sits 9.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $30.19.

Heritage Financial reports earnings on 22 October 2026, nine days away, falling inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior quarter beat estimates with EPS of $0.66 against a $0.57 estimate and produced a 1.2% reaction. No insider, Congress, or options activity appears in the respective 90-day and 30-day windows. Seasonality from this point in the calendar has averaged a 10.2% move over the next 20 trading days across 5 years, rising in 4 of them. Analyst consensus across 4 firms includes 2 buy and 2 hold ratings, with a consensus target of $32.40.

Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

Heritage Financial price vs fair value

$30.19$27.24Oct ’25Apr ’26Oct ’26
Close $27.24200-day averageGekko Fair Value $30.19

Heritage Financial quick facts

Market cap
$1.12B
P/E ratio
13.1
Forward P/E
12.3
EPS, TTM
$2.10
Revenue, TTM
$295.1M
Profit margin
26.4%
Dividend yield
3.52%
Beta
0.50
Volume
159,910 avg 386,757
1-year return
+15.7%
Typical daily move
±1.9%
Typical 20-day move
±5%
50-day average
$28.67
200-day average
$27.52
Next earnings
Oct 22
Shares outstanding
40.92M
52-week range
$21.32$31.25

Heritage Financial swing-trade checklist

Heritage Financial scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $27.24 sits between the 50-day ($28.67) and 200-day ($27.52) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    65.4, Accumulation

    Reading 65.4 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    9.8% below

    Price is 9.8% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 10 days

    Reports on Oct 22, 2026, 10 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +10.2% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +10.2% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Heritage Financial stock chart and price history

Heritage Financial closed at $27.24 on Oct 12, 2026, +15.7% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $21.32 to $31.25.

5Y and weekly in Gekko
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Heritage Financial share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$22$24$26$28$30NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct27.24

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−4.1%
3 months
−8.0%
6 months
+0.1%
1 year
+15.7%
The full HFWA chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open HFWA in Gekko

Follow Heritage Financial through every session

Put HFWA on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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Heritage Financial GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Heritage Financial’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 65.4, in the Accumulation zone, up 1.5 points over five sessions.

010065.4Accumulation

Up 1.5 points over five sessions.

Reading for Oct 12, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying19+1.7%+2.4%+3.2%+0.5%
Accumulation (current zone)231+0.8%+1.9%+4.8%+7.7%
Neutral3960.0%0.0%−0.2%+2.4%
Distribution30+0.1%−1.4%−1.1%−1.7%
Selling6Too few readings yet

Average HFWA share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the HFWA price, zone by zone.Track HFWA in Gekko

Is Heritage Financial stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Heritage Financial trades 9.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $30.19, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Heritage Financial shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$30.19

Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026

9.8% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 10.2% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$30$27Aug 2026SepOct 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open HFWA in Gekko

Heritage Financial insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Heritage Financial, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for HFWA in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every HFWA insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open HFWA in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in HFWA were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for HFWA, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open HFWA in Gekko

Buybacks

Heritage Financial has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$10.11M
As a share of market cap
0.90%
Trailing four quarters
$11.14M

From company filings.

Heritage Financial earnings: next date and track record

Heritage Financial reports on Oct 22, 2026 (10 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.

5 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±2.7%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−4.0%Apr ’24+6.0%Jul ’24+2.1%Oct ’24+0.2%Jan ’25−1.7%Apr ’25−6.1%Jul ’25+0.6%Oct ’25+1.2%Jan ’26

Last earnings call, Jan 22, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Heritage Financial's Q4 2025 earnings call framed a positive earnings narrative with margin expansion and a pending Olympic Bancorp merger. Management highlighted higher adjusted EPS (up 18% QoQ, 29% YoY), a stronger ROA (1.29%), and improved NIM driven by loan mix and rate dynamics, plus expected cost reductions from the Olympic combination. The company guided toward continued margin improvement, potential mid-to-upper single-digit loan growth in 2026 after a period of elevated payoffs, and meaningful accretion and deposit advantages from Olympic. Credit quality remained solid with nonaccruals low, though some downgrades and substandard loans rose modestly. Executives signaled merger-related expenses (~$20-$21 million) and cost-saving opportunities, with a plan to close the Olympic deal by month-end January and to integrate Kitsap. The tone was cautiously optimistic with emphasis on tailwinds from the merger and repricing opportunities, tempered by ongoing credit monitoring and the integration execution risk.
Guidance
Forward-looking guidance included: (1) margin improvement continuing on legacy Heritage and potential margin near 4% by year-end after the Olympic integration; (2) 2026 loan growth resuming to more historical levels; (3) merger-related expenses expected around $20–$21 million, with cost saves leading to a lower core expense run rate (Q2–Q3 ~56–57% of revenue and core expenses around $54 million after integration); (4) capital deployment primarily focused on completing the merger and integrating Olympic, with possible buybacks later depending on post-close accretion; (5) cross to $10B in assets still years away, with prep work and integration the near-term priorities.
Risks flagged
Key risks discussed or implied included: integration risk and fair value adjustments post-merger; timing and execution of Olympic integration; macro/credit headwinds and loan demand volatility; credit quality challenges evidenced by downgrades and substandard loans; reliance on repricing and rate environment to drive NIM; deposit cost dynamics and competition for deposits; potential changes to regulatory criteria and the path to capital deployment; and potential variability in payoffs and loan runoff that could influence earnings.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Jan 22, 2026$0.66
est $0.57		+15.8%$66.35M
est $66.10M		+0.4%+1.2%
Oct 23, 2025$0.56
est $0.55		+2.4%$65.70M
est $66.21M		−0.8%+0.6%
Jul 24, 2025$0.53
est $0.50		+6.7%$56.50M
est $65.35M		−13.5%−6.1%
Apr 24, 2025$0.49
est $0.45		+8.5%$57.59M
est $61.76M		−6.7%−1.7%
Jan 23, 2025$0.34
est $0.44		−22.7%$57.05M
est $60.20M		−5.2%+0.2%
Oct 24, 2024$0.33
est $0.41		−19.5%$54.80M
est $58.12M		−5.7%+2.1%
Jul 25, 2024$0.41
est $0.40		+2.5%$56.36M
est $58.29M		−3.3%+6.0%
Apr 25, 2024$0.16
est $0.41		−61.0%$71.45M
est $59.89M		+19.3%−4.0%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Heritage Financial stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Heritage Financial is $32.40, +18.9% from the last close, from 4 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$32.40consensus 12-month target, +18.9% from the last close
Low $32High $34
Buy2
Hold2
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 4 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 22Brean CapitalBuy, upgraded$33+21.1%
Jul 28StephensHold, maintained$32+17.5%
Jul 27Piper SandlerBuy, maintained$34+24.8%
Jul 27KBWHold, maintained$32+17.5%
+4.8%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+10.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±1.9%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Heritage Financial seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Heritage Financial averaged +10.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+2.2%2021+19.6%2022+3.5%2023+24.2%2024−3.1%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+1.6%2 of 5
Next 10 trading days+1.9%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days+4.4%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days+10.2%4 of 5
Next 30 trading days+8.4%5 of 5

For scale, HFWA’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5%.

Heritage Financial market cap and key statistics

Heritage Financial’s market cap is $1.12B, with a P/E ratio of 13.1 and revenue of $295.1M over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$1.12B
P/E ratio
13.1
Forward P/E
12.3
EPS, TTM
$2.10
Gekko Fair Value
$30.19

Trading

Volume
159,910
Avg volume, 20 days
386,757
52-week high
$31.25
52-week low
$21.32
Shares outstanding
40.92M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$295.1M
Profit margin
26.4%
Return on equity
7.8%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+17.0%

Risk and income

Beta
0.50
Typical daily move
±1.9%
Typical 20-day move
±5%
Dividend yield
3.52%

Heritage Financial stock news this week

1 headline about Heritage Financial from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.

Heritage Financial peers

Heritage Financial’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
CMCanadian Imperial Bank of Commerce+0.4%Accumulation5.7% below
USBU.S. Bancorp+0.4%Accumulation11.0% below
NUNu−0.6%Neutral0.7% below
TFCTruist Financial+0.9%Accumulation9.6% below
FITBFifth Third Bancorp+0.1%Accumulation11.2% below
MTBM&T Bank+0.9%Accumulation9.1% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

VZTMUSTBMYINGBCS

Reporting earnings this week

JPMJNJUNHGSWFCC

Popular on Gekko

NVDATSLAMSFTAMZNMETAGOOGL

Heritage Financial stock FAQ

What is Heritage Financial’s market cap?

Heritage Financial’s market cap is $1.12B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $27.24, with 40.92M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 13.1.

What is the Heritage Financial stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Heritage Financial is $32.40, +18.9% from the last close. Of the 4 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 2 rate it a buy, 2 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Heritage Financial stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Heritage Financial is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $27.24 is 9.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $30.19. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Heritage Financial report earnings next?

Heritage Financial is expected to report on Oct 22, 2026 (10 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.51 per share on revenue of $86.11M. Heritage Financial beat the earnings estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, moving 2.7% on average across the report.

What is Heritage Financial’s 52-week high and low?

Heritage Financial’s 52-week high is $31.25 and its 52-week low is $21.32; it closed at $27.24 on Oct 12, 2026, +15.7% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $34.34 on Nov 10, 2022.

Is Heritage Financial stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

Built and overseen by Jared Mann

Founder of Gekko.app. Jared has traded stocks and ETFs for more than 20 years and has a financial industry background.

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