Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for NBHC in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every NBHC insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open NBHC in Gekko
NYSE: NBHC
National Bank (NBHC) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$38.05+0.12 (+0.3%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeThis week's news centers on credit quality concerns at National Bank, with disclosures of $46.8 million in expected loan charge-offs tied to commercial loans in the franchise and healthcare sectors, alongside expected third-quarter provisions of $38.0-40.0 million. The company also approved an additional $40.1 million in stock repurchase authority. Separately, National Bank confirmed its third-quarter earnings release date, and Dimensional Fund Advisors disclosed a 5.5% ownership stake in a regulatory filing.
National Bank shares closed at $38.05, down 8.9% over the past month and 15.5% over three months, trading below both the 50-day average of $41.09 and the 200-day average of $41.42. The GekkoIndex reading of 68.2 places the stock in the Accumulation zone, though the index has declined 12.9% over the past five sessions. Current price sits 10.9% below the Gekko Fair Value of $42.71.
National Bank reports third-quarter results on 27 October 2026, 15 days away and within a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the last earnings reaction was -4.5% following an EPS miss. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the recent windows. Seasonality data shows the next 20 trading days have historically averaged a 12.8% gain over 5 years, rising in 4 of those years. Four analysts cover the stock, with 2 buy and 2 hold ratings and a consensus target of $45, implying 18.3% upside per that consensus.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
National Bank price vs fair value
Close $38.05200-day averageGekko Fair Value $42.71
National Bank quick facts
- Market cap
- $1.70B
- P/E ratio
- 16
- Forward P/E
- 13.8
- EPS, TTM
- $2.38
- Revenue, TTM
- $452.3M
- Profit margin
- 21.8%
- Dividend yield
- 3.37%
- Beta
- 0.83
- Volume
- 218,479 avg 524,701
- 1-year return
- +0.1%
- Typical daily move
- ±1.9%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.6%
- 50-day average
- $41.09
- 200-day average
- $41.42
- Next earnings
- Oct 27
- Shares outstanding
- 44.29M
National Bank swing-trade checklist
National Bank scores 3 supportive, 0 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive0 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $38.05 is below the 50-day ($41.09) and 200-day ($41.42) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
68.2, Accumulation
Reading 68.2 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
10.9% below
Price is 10.9% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 15 days
Reports on Oct 27, 2026, 15 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+12.8% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +12.8% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
National Bank stock chart and price history
National Bank closed at $38.05 on Oct 12, 2026, +0.1% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $35.06 to $47.28.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −8.9%
- 3 months
- −15.5%
- 6 months
- −9.3%
- 1 year
- +0.1%
The full NBHC chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open NBHC in Gekko
Follow National Bank through every session
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About National Bank
National Bank is the parent company of NBH Bank, which supplies banking and financial services to both businesses and individual customers throughout the United States. It is recognized for a wide deposit lineup, spanning checking, savings, money market, and fixed-term accounts, paired with a broad lending business that touches commercial and industrial borrowers, real estate financing, and consumer credit needs.
Its commercial lending covers working capital, equipment purchases, lender finance, and niche areas such as food and agriculture, government entities, and non-profit organizations, alongside financing for owner-occupied and investment commercial properties like offices, warehouses, multi-family buildings, hotels, and retail sites. The bank also issues SBA-backed loans for manufacturers, distributors, and service businesses, plus term loans, credit lines, mortgages, and other consumer loans. On top of lending and deposits, it runs treasury management offerings including digital and mobile banking, commercial cards, wire and ACH transfers, lockbox and remote deposit services, merchant processing, fraud controls, and related account services such as sweep and zero balance accounts.
The company traces back to 2009 as NBH Holdings Corp. and took on its current name, National Bank Holdings Corporation, in March 2012. It is headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colorado, and its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker NBHC.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Finance
- Industry
- Regional banks
- Website
- nationalbankholdings.com
National Bank GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
National Bank’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 68.2, in the Accumulation zone, down 12.9 points over five sessions.
68.2Accumulation
Down 12.9 points over five sessions, from the Buying zone.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 42 | +0.4% | +1.4% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 238 | +0.4% | +1.3% | ||
| Neutral | 370 | 0.0% | +0.5% | ||
| Distribution | 31 | −1.0% | −3.9% | ||
| Selling | 1 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average NBHC share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the NBHC price, zone by zone.Track NBHC in Gekko
Is National Bank stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
National Bank trades 10.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $42.71, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what National Bank shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$42.71
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
10.9% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 11.7% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open NBHC in Gekko
National Bank insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for National Bank, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in NBHC were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for NBHC, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open NBHC in Gekko
Buybacks
National Bank has been buying back its own shares.
- Latest authorization
- $40.10M, Oct 1, 2026
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $11.13M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.65%
- Trailing four quarters
- $38.17M
From company filings.
National Bank earnings: next date and track record
National Bank reports on Oct 27, 2026 (15 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 27, 2026
15 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.82
- Revenue estimate
- $136.2M
5 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.5%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 21, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- NBHC reported Q2 2026 adjusted net income of $35.3 million ($0.78 EPS), 33% higher annualized than prior quarter. Record loan originations of $927 million drove 10% year-to-date annualized loan growth. Net interest margin was 3.94%, top quartile among peers. Pre-provision net revenue grew 23% year-over-year. Vista acquisition integration is on track with full conversions targeted by quarter end.
- Guidance
- Management expects full year loan portfolio growth of 10% and net interest margin near 4% for remainder of 2026. Full year fee income guided to $75-$80 million range. Guidance excludes any future Fed rate policy changes.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | $0.78 est $0.83 | $129.1M est $135.1M | −4.5% |
| Apr 21, 2026 | $0.72 est $0.65 | $126.8M est $131.2M | −1.5% |
| Jan 27, 2026 | $0.60 est $0.87 | $100.6M est $107.5M | −1.1% |
| Oct 21, 2025 | $0.96 est $0.90 | $107.9M est $108.2M | +2.7% |
| Jul 22, 2025 | $0.88 est $0.82 | $103.2M est $111.8M | +1.7% |
| Apr 22, 2025 | $0.63 est $0.76 | $101.0M est $110.9M | −3.9% |
| Jan 22, 2025 | $0.86 est $0.79 | $99.98M est $109.0M | −4.2% |
| Oct 22, 2024 | $0.86 est $0.75 | $104.9M est $104.6M | +8.1% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
National Bank stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for National Bank is $45.00, +18.3% from the last close, from 4 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$45.00consensus 12-month target, +18.3% from the last close
Now $38.05Avg $45.00
Low $43High $49
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 4 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | D.A. Davidson | $43 | +13.0% |
| Oct 1 | Piper Sandler | $49 | +28.8% |
| Aug 6 | Stephens | $46 | +20.9% |
| Jul 27 | Piper Sandler | $51 | +34.0% |
| Jul 23 | D.A. Davidson | $49 | +28.8% |
+1.3%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+12.8%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±1.9%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
National Bank seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, National Bank averaged +12.8% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +2.5% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +3.8% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +6.7% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +12.8% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +11.7% | 5 of 5 |
For scale, NBHC’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5.6%.
National Bank market cap and key statistics
National Bank’s market cap is $1.70B, with a P/E ratio of 16 and revenue of $452.3M over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $1.70B
- P/E ratio
- 16
- Forward P/E
- 13.8
- EPS, TTM
- $2.38
- Gekko Fair Value
- $42.71
Trading
- Volume
- 218,479
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 524,701
- 52-week high
- $47.28
- 52-week low
- $35.06
- Shares outstanding
- 44.29M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $452.3M
- Profit margin
- 21.8%
- Return on equity
- 6.5%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −34.1%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.83
- Typical daily move
- ±1.9%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.6%
- Dividend yield
- 3.37%
National Bank stock news this week
Coverage of National Bank this week reads negative: 1 positive, 1 neutral and 2 negative headlines.
- Critical Survey: National Bank (NYSE:NBHC) & BV Financial (NASDAQ:BVFL)Defense World, Oct 12
- Dimensional Fund Advisors Reports 5.5% Ownership Stake in National Bank Holdings CorpKalkine Media, Oct 8
- National Bank Holdings Corporation Announces Date for 2026 Third Quarter Earnings Releasewww.marketscreener.com, Oct 7
- National Bank Holdings (NBHC) Could Be a Great ChoiceZacks Investment Research, Oct 6
- National Bank Holdings stock faces USD 46.8 million charge-offsAD HOC NEWS, Oct 5
- National Bank Holdings reports loan impairments and National Bank Holdings stock trades at EUR 34.00AD HOC NEWS, Oct 5
National Bank peers
National Bank’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| CMCanadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | Accumulation | 5.7% below |
| USBU.S. Bancorp | Accumulation | 11.0% below |
| NUNu | Neutral | 0.7% below |
| TFCTruist Financial | Accumulation | 9.6% below |
| FITBFifth Third Bancorp | Accumulation | 11.2% below |
| MTBM&T Bank | Accumulation | 9.1% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
National Bank stock FAQ
What is National Bank’s market cap?
National Bank’s market cap is $1.70B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $38.05, with 44.29M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 16.
What is the National Bank stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for National Bank is $45.00, +18.3% from the last close. Of the 4 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 2 rate it a buy, 2 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is National Bank stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate National Bank is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $38.05 is 10.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $42.71. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does National Bank report earnings next?
National Bank is expected to report on Oct 27, 2026 (15 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.82 per share on revenue of $136.2M. National Bank beat the earnings estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, moving 3.5% on average across the report.
What is National Bank’s 52-week high and low?
National Bank’s 52-week high is $47.28 and its 52-week low is $35.06; it closed at $38.05 on Oct 12, 2026, +0.1% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $51.76 on Nov 6, 2024.
Is National Bank stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (trend and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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