Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for FRME in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every FRME insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open FRME in Gekko
NASDAQ: FRME
First Merchants (FRME) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$39.25+0.25 (+0.6%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeThis week's attention on First Merchants centers on analyst coverage rather than company news: brokerages covering FRME carry an average rating described as "Moderate Buy," with five firms weighing in, two at hold and three at buy, and an average target price cited at $46.00.
FRME closed at $39.25, up 0.6%, with the stock sitting between its 50-day average of $41.41 and 200-day average of $40.58, reflecting a mixed trend. Shares are down 4.5% over one month, 9.4% over three months, and 4.6% over six months, though still up 5.2% over the past year. The GekkoIndex reads 66, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone. Gekko Fair Value stands at $43.49, putting the current price 9.7% below that level.
First Merchants reports earnings on 21 October 2026, eight days away, placing the release inside the next 20-trading-day stretch. The prior quarter saw an EPS of $0.74 against an estimate of $1.03, with a -4.9% reaction, and the company has beaten estimates in 7 of the last 8 quarters, with an average absolute reaction of 3.5%. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the current windows. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 7.2% return over 5 years, positive in 4 of those years. Separately, three covering firms carry buy ratings, with a consensus target of $46.5 and consensus upside of 18.5%.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
First Merchants price vs fair value
Close $39.25200-day averageGekko Fair Value $43.49
First Merchants quick facts
- Market cap
- $2.46B
- P/E ratio
- 12.7
- Forward P/E
- 11.1
- EPS, TTM
- $3.11
- Revenue, TTM
- $642.2M
- Profit margin
- 29%
- Dividend yield
- 3.69%
- Beta
- 0.88
- Volume
- 283,299 avg 562,331
- 1-year return
- +5.2%
- Typical daily move
- ±1.8%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5%
- 50-day average
- $41.41
- 200-day average
- $40.58
- Next earnings
- Oct 21
- Shares outstanding
- 62.80M
First Merchants swing-trade checklist
First Merchants scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $39.25 sits between the 50-day ($41.41) and 200-day ($40.58) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
66, Accumulation
Reading 66 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
9.7% below
Price is 9.7% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 9 days
Reports on Oct 21, 2026, 9 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+7.2% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +7.2% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
First Merchants stock chart and price history
First Merchants closed at $39.25 on Oct 12, 2026, +5.2% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $34.66 to $45.33.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −4.5%
- 3 months
- −9.4%
- 6 months
- −4.6%
- 1 year
- +5.2%
The full FRME chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open FRME in Gekko
Follow First Merchants through every session
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About First Merchants
First Merchants provides community banking through its subsidiary, First Merchants Bank. It takes deposits such as term, savings, and checking accounts, and offers loans covering consumer, commercial, agricultural, and real estate mortgage needs, along with public finance options. The bank is also known for pairing everyday banking with trust, brokerage, and private wealth management services.
On the corporate side, First Merchants arranges letters of credit, repurchase agreements, and related financial services for business clients. Customers can reach the bank through 109 physical locations spread across counties in Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, and Michigan, as well as through electronic and mobile banking channels that supplement its branch network.
First Merchants was founded in 1893 and is based in Muncie, Indiana. Its shares are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker FRME.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Finance
- Industry
- Major banks
- Website
- firstmerchants.com
First Merchants GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
First Merchants’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 66, in the Accumulation zone, up 0.7 points over five sessions.
66Accumulation
Up 0.7 points over five sessions.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 20 | +0.1% | +3.6% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 244 | +0.3% | +3.2% | ||
| Neutral | 375 | +0.1% | −0.2% | ||
| Distribution | 36 | −0.2% | −5.3% | ||
| Selling | 7 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average FRME share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the FRME price, zone by zone.Track FRME in Gekko
Is First Merchants stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
First Merchants trades 9.7% below Gekko Fair Value of $43.49, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what First Merchants shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$43.49
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
9.7% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 10.3% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open FRME in Gekko
First Merchants insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for First Merchants, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in FRME were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for FRME, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open FRME in Gekko
Buybacks
First Merchants has been buying back its own shares.
- Latest authorization
- $100.0M, Jun 24, 2026
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $13.37M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.54%
- Trailing four quarters
- $55.18M
From company filings.
First Merchants earnings: next date and track record
First Merchants reports on Oct 21, 2026 (9 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 21, 2026
9 days away
- EPS estimate
- $1.04
- Revenue estimate
- $203.9M
7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.5%average move across the report
2 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 22, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- First Merchants reported Q2 2026 results with reported net income of $43.5 million ($0.70 per diluted share). Adjusted pretax pre-provision earnings rose to $84.6 million (up 7.5% vs. Q1). Net interest margin expanded to 3.38% and loan growth returned to more-normal levels with roughly 6% annualized growth in both commercial and consumer segments. Management completed integration of the First Savings acquisition and closed a mortgage loan sale that added $271 million of liquidity. Q2 results were negatively affected by two commercial credits that were placed on nonaccrual (a $28.1 million syndicated participation in an authorized wireless retailer and a $13.7 million sponsor-financed roofing contractor loan), which increased nonaccrual loans to $118.2 million and classified loans to $393.3 million. Management described the credit events as isolated to a limited number of relationships and reiterated confidence in the broader portfolio while initiating further reviews of the shared national credit (SNC) exposures. Revenue growth was broad-based with net interest income and noninterest income improving; tangible book value per share rose to $29.80. Management reaffirmed expense run-rate guidance, expects mid-single-digit loan growth for the remainder of 2026, and outlined continued capital returns including share repurchases under a recently approved $100 million program.
- Guidance
- • Expense run-rate guidance: $111 million to $114 million per quarter for remainder of 2026. • Loan growth: Management expects mid-single-digit loan growth through the end of 2026. • Net interest margin: Management assumes no Fed rate changes and expects margin to be stable to up a couple basis points in H2 2026. • Noninterest income: Expectation of ~10% increase year-over-year for full year 2026. • Tax rate: Effective tax rate expected to be ~13%. • Capital management: Continue share repurchases assuming similar stock price and use of capital to support loan growth, dividends, and buybacks (recent $100 million repurchase approval).
- Risks flagged
- • Two commercial credits moved to nonaccrual in Q2 (a syndicated retail wireless participation and a roofing contractor loan), increasing nonaccruals and classified loans. • Potential concentration or rapid changes in certain industry verticals (e.g., retail wireless distribution changes impacted the borrower). • Deposit seasonality and maturity deposit declines; competition on deposit pricing (CD specials) could pressure funding costs. • Market/interest-rate uncertainty — guidance assumes no Fed moves; adverse rate changes could affect margin and securities valuations. • Need for further review of shared national credit (SNC) exposures and potential for additional credit migration.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | $0.74 est $1.03 | $202.5M est $202.8M | −4.9% |
| Apr 22, 2026 | $1.03 est $0.97 | $193.3M est $188.4M | −1.6% |
| Jan 26, 2026 | $0.98 est $0.95 | $178.4M est $173.2M | +0.3% |
| Oct 22, 2025 | $0.99 est $0.96 | $166.1M est $172.5M | −1.4% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | $0.98 est $0.95 | $164.3M est $172.8M | −4.2% |
| Apr 24, 2025 | $0.94 est $0.91 | $160.3M est $170.9M | −3.7% |
| Jan 30, 2025 | $1.00 est $0.90 | $157.1M est $167.0M | +7.7% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | $0.95 est $0.90 | $156.0M est $166.3M | −4.3% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
First Merchants stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for First Merchants is $46.50, +18.5% from the last close, from 3 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$46.50consensus 12-month target, +18.5% from the last close
Now $39.25Avg $46.50
Low $46High $50
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 3 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | Raymond James | $46 | +17.2% |
| Oct 5 | Piper Sandler | $46 | +17.2% |
| Sep 25 | Piper Sandler | $51 | +29.9% |
| Aug 11 | Piper Sandler | $51 | +29.9% |
| Jul 27 | Piper Sandler | $51 | +29.9% |
+3.2%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+7.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±1.8%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
First Merchants seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, First Merchants averaged +7.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +3.2% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +2.3% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +2.7% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +7.2% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +8.1% | 5 of 5 |
For scale, FRME’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5%.
First Merchants market cap and key statistics
First Merchants’s market cap is $2.46B, with a P/E ratio of 12.7 and revenue of $642.2M over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $2.46B
- P/E ratio
- 12.7
- Forward P/E
- 11.1
- EPS, TTM
- $3.11
- Gekko Fair Value
- $43.49
Trading
- Volume
- 283,299
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 562,331
- 52-week high
- $45.33
- 52-week low
- $34.66
- Shares outstanding
- 62.80M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $642.2M
- Profit margin
- 29%
- Return on equity
- 7.4%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −28.7%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.88
- Typical daily move
- ±1.8%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5%
- Dividend yield
- 3.69%
First Merchants stock news this week
1 headline about First Merchants from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.
First Merchants peers
First Merchants’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| JPMJP Morgan Chase | Accumulation | 6.9% below |
| BACBank of America | Accumulation | 13.1% below |
| RYRoyal Bank Of Canada | Accumulation | 6.5% below |
| WFCWells Fargo | Neutral | 8.5% below |
| CCitigroup | Neutral | 6.6% below |
| TDToronto Dominion Bank | Accumulation | 2.9% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
First Merchants stock FAQ
What is First Merchants’s market cap?
First Merchants’s market cap is $2.46B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $39.25, with 62.80M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 12.7.
What is the First Merchants stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for First Merchants is $46.50, +18.5% from the last close. Of the 3 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 3 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is First Merchants stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate First Merchants is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $39.25 is 9.7% below Gekko Fair Value of $43.49. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does First Merchants report earnings next?
First Merchants is expected to report on Oct 21, 2026 (9 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.04 per share on revenue of $203.9M. First Merchants beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 3.5% on average across the report.
What is First Merchants’s 52-week high and low?
First Merchants’s 52-week high is $45.33 and its 52-week low is $34.66; it closed at $39.25 on Oct 12, 2026, +5.2% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $46.13 on Nov 25, 2024.
Is First Merchants stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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