Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for NBTB in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every NBTB insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open NBTB in Gekko
NASDAQ: NBTB
NBT Bancorp (NBTB) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$50.39+0.33 (+0.7%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeThis week's attention on NBT Bancorp centers on analyst commentary. Argus raised its target price for NBTB to $56.00, while coverage also notes an overall "Hold" rating with an average price target of $54.10, alongside mention that shares recently crossed above their 200-day moving average following a quarter that narrowly missed earnings estimates.
NBTB closed at $50.39, up 0.7%, sitting between its 50-day average of $51.69 and 200-day average of $47.05. The stock's one-month return stands at -2.6% while the six-month return is 11%. The GekkoIndex reads 61.9, placing it in the Accumulation zone, up 3.6 over five sessions. Shares trade 6.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $54.04, within a 52-week range of $39.20 to $54.50.
NBT Bancorp's next earnings date falls on 27 October 2026, 15 days away, which sits inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior quarter saw an EPS beat of $1.05 versus a $0.99 estimate, with a -0.5% reaction, and the company has beaten estimates in 6 of the last 8 quarters. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the current window. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 10.5% return over 5 years, rising in 5 of them. Current analyst consensus across 4 firms shows 2 buy and 2 hold ratings, with a consensus target of $57.50 and consensus upside of 14.1%.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
NBT Bancorp price vs fair value
Close $50.39200-day averageGekko Fair Value $54.04
NBT Bancorp quick facts
- Market cap
- $2.62B
- P/E ratio
- 12.4
- Forward P/E
- 13.4
- EPS, TTM
- $4.09
- Revenue, TTM
- $723.8M
- Profit margin
- 29.6%
- Dividend yield
- 2.95%
- Beta
- 0.50
- Volume
- 227,789 avg 375,996
- 1-year return
- +23.7%
- Typical daily move
- ±1.6%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.2%
- 50-day average
- $51.69
- 200-day average
- $47.05
- Next earnings
- Oct 27
- Shares outstanding
- 51.96M
NBT Bancorp swing-trade checklist
NBT Bancorp scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $50.39 sits between the 50-day ($51.69) and 200-day ($47.05) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
61.9, Accumulation
Reading 61.9 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
6.8% below
Price is 6.8% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 15 days
Reports on Oct 27, 2026, 15 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+10.5% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +10.5% over 5 years, rising in 5 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
NBT Bancorp stock chart and price history
NBT Bancorp closed at $50.39 on Oct 12, 2026, +23.7% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $39.20 to $54.50.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −2.6%
- 3 months
- −0.5%
- 6 months
- +11.0%
- 1 year
- +23.7%
The full NBTB chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open NBTB in Gekko
Follow NBT Bancorp through every session
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NBT Bancorp GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
NBT Bancorp’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 61.9, in the Accumulation zone, up 3.6 points over five sessions.
61.9Accumulation
Up 3.6 points over five sessions, from the Neutral zone.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 33 | +0.6% | +1.3% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 220 | +0.3% | +2.7% | ||
| Neutral | 403 | +0.1% | +0.7% | ||
| Distribution | 25 | +1.1% | −0.7% | ||
| Selling | 1 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average NBTB share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the NBTB price, zone by zone.Track NBTB in Gekko
Is NBT Bancorp stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
NBT Bancorp trades 6.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $54.04, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what NBT Bancorp shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$54.04
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
6.8% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 6.5% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open NBTB in Gekko
NBT Bancorp insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for NBT Bancorp, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in NBTB were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for NBTB, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open NBTB in Gekko
Buybacks
NBT Bancorp has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $3.02M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.12%
From company filings.
NBT Bancorp earnings: next date and track record
NBT Bancorp reports on Oct 27, 2026 (15 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 27, 2026
15 days away
- EPS estimate
- $1.09
- Revenue estimate
- $193.8M
6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.6%average move across the report
6 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jan 26, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- NBT Bancorp reported solid Q4 and full-year 2025 results, driven by improved net interest margin, growth from the Evans Bancorp merger, diversified revenue streams, and strong noninterest income with record results in nonbank businesses. Operating return on assets was 1.37% and return on tangible equity 17.02% with tangible book value per share up 11% year-over-year. Loans grew 16.3% including acquisitions; deposits increased $2 billion with favorable mix shift away from time deposits into lower-cost core deposits. NIM was 3.65% (-1bp sequential), supported by asset repricing and lower funding costs. Management emphasized positive asset repricing trends, prudent balance sheet management, and continued focus on organic growth, hiring in target markets (Maine, Rochester, Buffalo), and opportunistic M&A with a target of ~5%+ accretion. Credit metrics remain healthy; higher-than-normal CRE payoffs (~$150-175M in 2025) weighed on loan growth but pipeline remains strong. Management increased reserves on the solar runoff portfolio to rightsize coverage; no fundamental deterioration. Guidance: margin expected to be fairly stable with modest 2-3 bps expansion per quarter and loan growth mid-to-lower single digits for 2026; share repurchases may continue at similar self-funded levels; charge-off normalization to ~15-20 bps. Risks: CRE payoffs and market competition, Canadian cross-border tensions affecting northern markets, limited room for further NIM expansion given low funding costs, runoff of older loan portfolio.
- Guidance
- Net interest margin: likely stable with modest expansion of ~2-3 bps per quarter in absence of unexpected accretion changes; loan growth: mid- to lower single-digit growth rate for 2026 (plan), acknowledging ~$100M/year runoff from older loan portfolio; deposit repricing: opportunity in CDs (77% reprices in next 2 quarters), mortgage repricing capacity (~125-130 bps), investment securities repricing; share repurchases: management may self-fund ~$10M per quarter similar to Q4; charge-offs: normalized to ~15-20 bps going forward.
- Risks flagged
- Elevated unscheduled CRE payoffs (~$150-175M in 2025) could pressure loan growth; competition from agency/private equity funding offering higher rates/structures; exposure to Canadian-U.S. tensions impacting cross-border commerce in northern markets; runoff of older loan portfolios (~$800M) reducing growth; limited remaining repricing room in some loan categories and potential pressure on spreads.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | $1.05 est $0.99 | $185.1M est $183.6M | −0.5% |
| Oct 27, 2025 | $1.05 est $0.97 | $183.0M est $183.8M | +0.9% |
| Jul 28, 2025 | $0.88 est $0.82 | $170.7M est $183.9M | +4.0% |
| Apr 24, 2025 | $0.80 est $0.76 | $154.0M est $151.0M | +1.7% |
| Jan 27, 2025 | $0.77 est $0.76 | $147.9M est $146.7M | −4.0% |
| Oct 28, 2024 | $0.80 est $0.77 | $146.9M est $145.2M | +3.9% |
| Jul 22, 2024 | $0.69 est $0.69 | $139.7M est $141.1M | +9.7% |
| Apr 22, 2024 | $0.68 est $0.68 | $140.0M est $139.2M | +4.1% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
NBT Bancorp stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for NBT Bancorp is $57.50, +14.1% from the last close, from 4 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$57.50consensus 12-month target, +14.1% from the last close
Now $50.39Avg $57.50
Low $54High $59
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 4 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3 | KBW | $54 | +7.2% |
| Jul 30 | Stephens | $55 | +9.1% |
| Jul 29 | D.A. Davidson | $59 | +17.1% |
| Jul 29 | Piper Sandler | $56 | +11.1% |
| Jul 28 | D.A. Davidson | — | — |
+2.7%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+10.5%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±1.6%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
NBT Bancorp seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, NBT Bancorp averaged +10.5% across the last 5 years, rising in 5 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +3.4% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +1.7% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +6.1% | 5 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +10.5% | 5 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +9.2% | 5 of 5 |
For scale, NBTB’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5.2%.
NBT Bancorp market cap and key statistics
NBT Bancorp’s market cap is $2.62B, with a P/E ratio of 12.4 and revenue of $723.8M over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $2.62B
- P/E ratio
- 12.4
- Forward P/E
- 13.4
- EPS, TTM
- $4.09
- Gekko Fair Value
- $54.04
Trading
- Volume
- 227,789
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 375,996
- 52-week high
- $54.50
- 52-week low
- $39.20
- Shares outstanding
- 51.96M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $723.8M
- Profit margin
- 29.6%
- Return on equity
- 11.4%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +131.8%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.50
- Typical daily move
- ±1.6%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.2%
- Dividend yield
- 2.95%
NBT Bancorp stock news this week
2 headlines about NBT Bancorp from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.
- NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) Stock ForecastsYahoo! Finance Canada, Oct 11
- NBT Bancorp (NASDAQ:NBTB) Stock Crosses Above 200 Day Moving Average - Should You Sell?MarketBeat, Oct 8
NBT Bancorp peers
NBT Bancorp’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| JPMJP Morgan Chase | Accumulation | 6.9% below |
| BACBank of America | Accumulation | 13.1% below |
| RYRoyal Bank Of Canada | Accumulation | 6.5% below |
| WFCWells Fargo | Neutral | 8.5% below |
| CCitigroup | Neutral | 6.6% below |
| TDToronto Dominion Bank | Accumulation | 2.9% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
NBT Bancorp stock FAQ
What is NBT Bancorp’s market cap?
NBT Bancorp’s market cap is $2.62B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $50.39, with 51.96M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 12.4.
What is the NBT Bancorp stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for NBT Bancorp is $57.50, +14.1% from the last close. Of the 4 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 2 rate it a buy, 2 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is NBT Bancorp stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate NBT Bancorp is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $50.39 is 6.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $54.04. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does NBT Bancorp report earnings next?
NBT Bancorp is expected to report on Oct 27, 2026 (15 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.09 per share on revenue of $193.8M. NBT Bancorp beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 3.6% on average across the report.
What is NBT Bancorp’s 52-week high and low?
NBT Bancorp’s 52-week high is $54.50 and its 52-week low is $39.20; it closed at $50.39 on Oct 12, 2026, +23.7% over the past year.
Is NBT Bancorp stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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