NYSE: TOST

Toast (TOST) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$30.38−0.22 (−0.7%)

Gekko Brief

Toast closed at $30.38 on 28 September 2026, -0.7% on the day. The price sits between the 50-day ($32.95) and 200-day ($29.89) moving averages, inside a 52-week range of $22.26 to $39.73. The GekkoIndex reads 66.8, in the Accumulation zone, down 5.9 points over five sessions. Gekko Fair Value is $37.93, so the price is 19.9% below it.

The next earnings report is due on 3 November 2026, 35 days away (after close). Over the last 8 reports the company beat the earnings estimate 7 times, with an average move of 8.9% across the report. Smart-money activity over the last 90 days includes 2 Congress purchases and 0 sales. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days from this point averaged +5.2% over the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

25 firms rate the stock: 18 buy, 7 hold and 0 sell, with a consensus target of $38.92. A typical daily move is about 3.4%, and a typical 20-day move about 9.9%. On the swing-trade checklist, 5 items read supportive and 0 read as a headwind.

Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

Toast price vs fair value

$37.93$30.38Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $30.38200-day averageGekko Fair Value $37.93

Toast quick facts

Market cap
$17.62B
P/E ratio
37.6
Forward P/E
17.6
EPS, TTM
$0.80
Revenue, TTM
$6.80B
Profit margin
7.1%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
1.73
Volume
8.46M avg 8.27M
1-year return
−17.6%
Typical daily move
±3.4%
Typical 20-day move
±9.9%
50-day average
$32.95
200-day average
$29.89
Next earnings
Nov 3 after close
Shares outstanding
514.0M
52-week range
$22.26$39.73

Toast swing-trade checklist

Toast scores 5 supportive, 1 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

5 supportive1 mixed0 headwinds

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $30.38 sits between the 50-day ($32.95) and 200-day ($29.89) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    66.8, Accumulation

    Reading 66.8 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    19.9% below

    Price is 19.9% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneysupportive

    Leans bullish

    Last 90 days: Congress 2 buys / 0 sales.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 35 days

    Next report Nov 3, 2026, 35 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +5.2% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +5.2% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Toast stock chart and price history

Toast closed at $30.38 on Sep 28, 2026, −17.6% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $22.26 to $39.73.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Toast share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$25$35$40NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep30.38

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−13.6%
3 months
+7.9%
6 months
+18.5%
1 year
−17.6%
The full TOST chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open TOST in Gekko

Follow Toast through every session

Put TOST on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About Toast

Toast provides a cloud-based technology platform built for restaurants, combining hardware and software to help operators run day-to-day service. Its equipment lineup includes point-of-sale terminals and handheld devices for tableside ordering and payment, along with compact card readers and kitchen display screens, while its software covers order and pay tools, kitchen communication systems, and menu and operations management for businesses running multiple locations. It serves restaurant businesses in the United States and Ireland.

Beyond the core ordering and payment tools, Toast supports restaurants with back-office functions such as bookkeeping, payroll, and team management, plus loyalty programs, gift cards, and insurance policies adapted to restaurant needs. It also offers delivery options, letting restaurants manage their own driver fleets or connect with third-party delivery networks, and provides financing such as loans and purchase financing, along with reporting and analytics to support business decisions.

Toast, Inc. trades on the NYSE under the ticker TOST.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Technology services
Industry
Packaged software
Website
pos.toasttab.com

Toast GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Toast’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 66.8, in the Accumulation zone, down 5.9 points over five sessions.

010066.8Accumulation

Down 5.9 points over five sessions, from the Buying zone.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying22+1.5%+5.5%+9.2%+20.1%
Accumulation (current zone)224+1.2%+1.3%+3.4%+5.8%
Neutral3560.0%+1.1%+2.1%+3.8%
Distribution65+1.5%+1.1%+1.1%+9.2%
Selling5Too few readings yet

Average TOST share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the TOST price, zone by zone.Track TOST in Gekko

Is Toast stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Toast trades 19.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $37.93, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Toast shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$37.93

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026

19.9% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open TOST in Gekko

Toast insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Toast, and members of Congress disclosed 2 purchases and 0 sales, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for TOST in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every TOST insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open TOST in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

2trades disclosed: 2 purchases and 0 sales.

MemberTypeAmountDisclosed
Thomas Kean
House, NJ, purchase
Purchase$1,001 - $15,000Aug 19
traded Jul 8
Thomas Kean
House, NJ, purchase
Purchase$1,001 - $15,000Aug 19
traded Jul 7

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Buybacks

Toast has been buying back its own shares.

Latest authorization
$500.0M, Feb 12, 2026
Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$163.0M
As a share of market cap
0.93%
Trailing four quarters
$562.0M

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

3of the funds Gekko tracks hold TOST.

2added0opened1trimmed2sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

Toast earnings: next date and track record

Toast reports on Nov 3, 2026, after the close (35 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.

7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±8.9%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+16.6%Nov ’24−3.9%Feb ’25+14.8%May ’25−6.8%Aug ’25+9.2%Nov ’25−2.5%Feb ’26−11.5%May ’26+6.1%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 4, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Toast reported Q2 2026 results with recurring gross profit streams growing over 28% year-over-year and GAAP operating income margins expanding to 26%. The company achieved a record 9,500 net location adds, 1,000 above their previous high. Key wins include Kung Fu Tea (300+ locations), Best Western endorsement, and TGI Fridays UK expansion. Toast IQ Grow, their AI marketing agent, is on track to become the fastest product to reach $10M ARR.
Guidance
Management targets scaling Toast to $10 billion in ARR long-term. Top priorities for H2 2026 include expanding AI/Agentic platform capabilities, growing into new markets including retail and hospitality, and leveraging AI internally to accelerate growth.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 4, 2026$0.26
est $0.23
+13.0%$1.91B
est $1.87B
+1.9%+6.1%
May 7, 2026$0.20
est $0.16
+25.0%$1.63B
est $1.63B
−0.2%−11.5%
Feb 12, 2026$0.27
est $0.24
+12.5%$1.63B
est $1.62B
+0.9%−2.5%
Nov 4, 2025$0.25
est $0.24
+4.4%$1.63B
est $1.59B
+2.9%+9.2%
Aug 5, 2025$0.24
est $0.23
+6.6%$1.55B
est $1.52B
+1.6%−6.8%
May 8, 2025$0.20
est $0.18
+11.3%$1.34B
est $1.34B
−0.5%+14.8%
Feb 19, 2025$0.05
est $0.17
−70.4%$1.34B
est $1.31B
+1.8%−3.9%
Nov 7, 2024$0.07
est $0.02
+366.7%$1.31B
est $1.29B
+0.9%+16.6%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Toast stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Toast is $38.92, +28.1% from the last close, from 25 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$38.92consensus 12-month target, +28.1% from the last close
Low $34High $47
Buy18
Hold7
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 25 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 25UBSBuy, reiterated$39+28.4%
Sep 25JefferiesBuy, maintained$40+31.7%
Sep 24Evercore ISIBuy, maintained$40+31.7%
Sep 24UBSBuy, maintained$39+28.4%
Sep 24Wells FargoBuy, maintained$47+54.7%
+3.4%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+5.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.4%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Toast seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Toast averaged +5.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+6.0%2021+25.7%2022−15.8%2023+6.4%2024+4.7%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+0.2%3 of 5
Next 10 trading days+0.3%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days+3.4%4 of 5
Next 20 trading days+5.2%4 of 5
Next 30 trading days+5.4%4 of 5

For scale, TOST’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 9.9%.

Toast market cap and key statistics

Toast’s market cap is $17.62B, with a P/E ratio of 37.6 and revenue of $6.80B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$17.62B
P/E ratio
37.6
Forward P/E
17.6
EPS, TTM
$0.80
Gekko Fair Value
$37.93

Trading

Volume
8.46M
Avg volume, 20 days
8.27M
52-week high
$39.73
52-week low
$22.26
Shares outstanding
514.0M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$6.80B
Profit margin
7.1%
Return on equity
25.2%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+100.0%

Risk and income

Beta
1.73
Typical daily move
±3.4%
Typical 20-day move
±9.9%

Toast stock news this week

3 headlines about Toast from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.

Toast peers

Toast’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
MSFTMicrosoft+0.7%Neutral17.3% above
PLTRPalantir Technologies+0.7%Neutral15.7% above
ORCLOracle−0.1%Accumulation25.9% below
PANWPalo Alto Networks+5.8%Neutral16.1% above
CRWDCrowdStrike+4.2%Neutral27.2% above
CRMSalesforce+1.0%Neutral5.9% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Toast stock FAQ

What is Toast’s market cap?

Toast’s market cap is $17.62B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $30.38, with 514.0M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 37.6.

What is the Toast stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Toast is $38.92, +28.1% from the last close. Of the 25 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 18 rate it a buy, 7 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Toast stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Toast is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $30.38 is 19.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $37.93. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Toast report earnings next?

Toast is expected to report on Nov 3, 2026, after the market closes (35 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.37 per share on revenue of $1.97B. Toast beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 8.9% on average across the report.

What is Toast’s 52-week high and low?

Toast’s 52-week high is $39.73 and its 52-week low is $22.26; it closed at $30.38 on Sep 28, 2026, −17.6% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $69.93 on Nov 3, 2021.

Is Toast stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 5 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, smart money, earnings risk and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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