Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for TAC in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every TAC insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open TAC in Gekko
NYSE: TAC
TransAlta (TAC) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$13.00−0.13 (−1.0%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeThis week's news on TransAlta mixes analyst action with recaps of recent results. Argus raised its target price on the stock to $11.00, while a separate report flagged TransAlta as significantly overvalued against an intrinsic value estimate of $8.12, assigning a GF Score of 50/100 and citing weak financial strength, low growth and profitability concerns. Earlier quarterly results showed adjusted EBITDA of $291 million and free cash flow of $143 million for the period, with fleet availability of 90.2% and above-spot realized prices from the Alberta hedging strategy, alongside the announced acquisition of two Colorado natural gas peaking facilities for US$1 billion.
TransAlta closed at $13.00, down 1%, sitting between its 50-day average of $12.29 and 200-day average of $12.91. The GekkoIndex reads 50.3, placing the stock in the Neutral zone, down from a five-day change of -5.8. Price stands 26.6% above Gekko Fair Value of $10.27. Over the past month the stock gained 7.6%, though it remains down 16.7% over the past year and off its 52-week high of $17.88.
The next earnings date falls on 3 November 2026, 21 days out, within a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior quarter's report produced a -4% reaction despite an EPS beat of $0.13 versus $0.11 estimated. Smart money data shows no insider, Congress, or unusual options activity in their respective windows, though one trailblazer holder is noted. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged +0.4% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them, a mild supportive signal worth noting alongside the earnings-driven volatility ahead.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
TransAlta price vs fair value
Close $13.00200-day averageGekko Fair Value $10.27
TransAlta quick facts
- Market cap
- $3.88B
- P/E ratio
- —
- Forward P/E
- 26.6
- EPS, TTM
- −$0.22
- Revenue, TTM
- $2.27B
- Profit margin
- -1%
- Dividend yield
- 2.06%
- Beta
- 0.48
- Volume
- 489,060 avg 1.01M
- 1-year return
- −16.7%
- Typical daily move
- ±2.8%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±6.7%
- 50-day average
- $12.29
- 200-day average
- $12.91
- Next earnings
- Nov 3
- Shares outstanding
- 316.3M
TransAlta swing-trade checklist
TransAlta scores 1 supportive, 2 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
1 supportive2 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $13.00 sits between the 50-day ($12.29) and 200-day ($12.91) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
50.3, Neutral
Reading 50.3 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valueheadwind
26.6% above
Price is 26.6% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 22 days
Reports on Nov 3, 2026, 22 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+0.4% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +0.4% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
TransAlta stock chart and price history
TransAlta closed at $13.00 on Oct 12, 2026, −16.7% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $11.38 to $17.88.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +7.6%
- 3 months
- −6.7%
- 6 months
- −5.0%
- 1 year
- −16.7%
The full TAC chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open TAC in Gekko
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About TransAlta
TransAlta owns and runs a mix of power generation sites across Canada, the United States, and Australia. Its plants draw on several energy sources, including hydro, wind, solar, natural gas, and coal, giving it a varied footprint in how electricity is produced and supplied.
The company groups its work into four divisions: Hydro, Wind and Solar, Gas, and Energy Transition. Alongside generating electricity, TransAlta trades power, energy commodities, and financial derivatives on a wholesale basis, and it also handles related mining activities and operates natural gas pipelines. Its customers include municipalities, industrial and commercial businesses, and other utility companies.
TransAlta traces its founding back to 1909 and keeps its headquarters in Calgary, Canada. The company's shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker TAC.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Electric utilities
- Website
- transalta.com
TransAlta GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
TransAlta’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 50.3, in the Neutral zone, down 5.8 points over five sessions.
50.3Neutral
Down 5.8 points over five sessions.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 30 | +1.7% | −2.5% | ||
| Accumulation | 242 | −0.3% | −0.1% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 352 | +0.9% | +4.1% | ||
| Distribution | 56 | +1.6% | +3.0% | ||
| Selling | 2 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average TAC share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the TAC price, zone by zone.Track TAC in Gekko
Is TransAlta stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
TransAlta trades 26.6% above Gekko Fair Value of $10.27, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what TransAlta shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$10.27
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
26.6% Overvalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 12.4% above the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open TAC in Gekko
TransAlta insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for TransAlta, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in TAC were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for TAC, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open TAC in Gekko
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
1of the funds Gekko tracks holds TAC.
0added0opened1trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
TransAlta earnings: next date and track record
TransAlta reports on Nov 3, 2026 (22 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 3, 2026
22 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.05
- Revenue estimate
- $366.4M
3 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±4.3%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 31, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- TransAlta reported Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $291 million and free cash flow of $143 million ($0.47/share) with fleet availability of 90.2%. Alberta merchant portfolio faced softer prices but hedging strategy delivered above-spot realized prices. Company announced acquisition of two Colorado natural gas peaking facilities for US$1 billion, expected to contribute $110 million annually in adjusted EBITDA. Data center strategy with CPP Investments and Brookfield continues to advance alongside Far North integration.
- Guidance
- Management reaffirmed confidence in achieving 2026 guidance range. Colorado acquisition expected to close Q4 2026, adding $110 million/year in adjusted EBITDA and being immediately accretive to free cash flow per share. Centralia coal-to-gas conversion final investment decision remains on track for Q1 2027.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | $0.13 est $0.11 | $342.8M est $379.5M | −4.0% |
| May 6, 2026 | $0.06 est −$0.01 | $406.2M est $436.4M | +1.3% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | −$0.04 est $0.05 | $436.2M est $493.4M | +6.0% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | −$0.01 est $0.06 | $440.9M est $558.8M | −8.1% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | $0.13 est $0.07 | $317.8M est $473.9M | +3.9% |
| May 7, 2025 | $0.10 est $0.14 | $532.3M est $509.3M | −6.1% |
| Feb 20, 2025 | −$0.33 est $0.04 | $471.1M est $412.3M | +3.2% |
| Nov 5, 2024 | −$0.09 est $0.14 | $470.1M est $394.0M | +1.4% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
TransAlta stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for TransAlta is $13.01, +0.1% from the last close.
$13.01consensus 12-month target, +0.1% from the last close
+4.1%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+0.4%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.8%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
TransAlta seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, TransAlta averaged +0.4% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +1.4% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +1.3% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +2.2% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +0.4% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | −2.0% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, TAC’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 6.7%.
TransAlta market cap and key statistics
TransAlta’s market cap is $3.88B and revenue of $2.27B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $3.88B
- Forward P/E
- 26.6
- EPS, TTM
- −$0.22
- Gekko Fair Value
- $10.27
Trading
- Volume
- 489,060
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 1.01M
- 52-week high
- $17.88
- 52-week low
- $11.38
- Shares outstanding
- 316.3M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $2.27B
- Profit margin
- -1%
- Return on equity
- -1.4%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −71.6%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.48
- Typical daily move
- ±2.8%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±6.7%
- Dividend yield
- 2.06%
TransAlta stock news this week
Coverage of TransAlta this week reads neutral: 2 positive, 4 neutral and 1 negative headlines.
- TransAlta Corporation (TAC) Stock ForecastsYahoo! Finance Canada, Oct 10
- TransAlta Corp (TA-PE.TO) Analyst insights, Price targets and RecommendationsYahoo Finance UK, Oct 8
- Q3 2025 TransAlta Corp Earnings Call TranscriptGuruFocus, Oct 8
- TRANSALTA CORP PREF SH SERIES E (TA-PH.TO) Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcriptYahoo Finance, Oct 8
- TransAlta Corp (TAC) Stock Up 5.2% but GF Value Says Overvalued -- GF Score: 50/100GuruFocus, Oct 7
- Results arrive before markets open November 3 for TransAlta (TAC), with a 10 a.m. Eastern call.Stock Titan, Oct 6
TransAlta peers
TransAlta’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| NEENextEra Energy | Accumulation | 20.2% below |
| CEGConstellation Energy | Neutral | 16.5% above |
| SOSouthern | Neutral | 8.8% above |
| DUKDuke Energy | Neutral | 4.8% above |
| AEPAmerican Electric Power | Neutral | 12.1% above |
| DDominion Energy | Accumulation | 8.0% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
TransAlta stock FAQ
What is TransAlta’s market cap?
TransAlta’s market cap is $3.88B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $13.00, with 316.3M shares outstanding.
What is the TransAlta stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for TransAlta is $13.01, +0.1% from the last close. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is TransAlta stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate TransAlta is overvalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $13.00 is 26.6% above Gekko Fair Value of $10.27. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does TransAlta report earnings next?
TransAlta is expected to report on Nov 3, 2026 (22 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.05 per share on revenue of $366.4M. TransAlta beat the earnings estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports, moving 4.3% on average across the report.
What is TransAlta’s 52-week high and low?
TransAlta’s 52-week high is $17.88 and its 52-week low is $11.38; it closed at $13.00 on Oct 12, 2026, −16.7% over the past year.
Is TransAlta stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 1 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (seasonality), 2 as mixed (trend and gekkoindex) and 2 as headwinds (fair value and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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