Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for SAFT in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every SAFT insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open SAFT in Gekko
NASDAQ: SAFT
Safety Insurance (SAFT) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$103.83+0.01 (0.0%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeSafety Insurance has drawn attention this week after a sharp share price rally built on strong recent total shareholder returns, with commentary raising valuation questions around the move. Separately, Glazer Capital, LLC disclosed a new position of 750,000 shares at $103.51 each, representing a 1.94% portfolio impact and a 5.10% ownership stake. Alongside this, an overview piece recapped the company's stock performance, financial data, and analyst estimates ahead of its upcoming earnings report.
Shares closed at $103.83, just above both the 50-day average of $103.54 and the 200-day average of $82.76, with the close near the 52-week high of $104.01. The GekkoIndex reads 48.5, placing it in the Neutral zone, up 2 points over five days. Gekko Fair Value stands at $90.12, putting the current price 15.2% above that level.
Safety Insurance next reports earnings on 2 November 2026, 21 days away, placing the release inside a typical 20-trading-day holding period; the prior quarter's actual EPS of $1.58 beat the $1.53 estimate with a 0.4% reaction, and the company has beaten estimates in 3 of the last 6 quarters, with an average absolute reaction of 2.2%. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the current windows. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days from this point in the calendar have averaged +7.6% over 5 years, rising in 4 of those years. The consensus analyst target sits at 70, implying a -32.6% gap to the current price.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Safety Insurance price vs fair value
Close $103.83200-day averageGekko Fair Value $90.12
Safety Insurance quick facts
- Market cap
- $1.52B
- P/E ratio
- 22.3
- Forward P/E
- 17.1
- EPS, TTM
- $4.66
- Revenue, TTM
- $1.29B
- Profit margin
- 5.3%
- Dividend yield
- 3.54%
- Beta
- 0.17
- Volume
- 129,863 avg 127,946
- 1-year return
- +50.0%
- Typical daily move
- ±0.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±3.8%
- 50-day average
- $103.54
- 200-day average
- $82.76
- Next earnings
- Nov 2
- Shares outstanding
- 14.68M
Safety Insurance swing-trade checklist
Safety Insurance scores 2 supportive, 1 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
2 supportive1 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendsupportive
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $103.83 is above the 50-day ($103.54) and 200-day ($82.76) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
48.5, Neutral
Reading 48.5 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valueheadwind
15.2% above
Price is 15.2% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 21 days
Reports on Nov 2, 2026, 21 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+7.6% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +7.6% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Safety Insurance stock chart and price history
Safety Insurance closed at $103.83 on Oct 12, 2026, +50.0% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $67.04 to $104.01.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +0.4%
- 3 months
- +38.8%
- 6 months
- +38.0%
- 1 year
- +50.0%
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About Safety Insurance
Safety Insurance sells personal and commercial insurance policies across the United States. Its private passenger auto coverage protects against liability for injury and property damage to others, pays no-fault personal injury benefits, and covers physical damage to a policyholder's own vehicle. The company also writes commercial auto policies for business vehicles, from cars to trucks and trailers, insured individually or as fleets.
For homeowners, the company covers houses, condominiums and apartments against structural and content damage along with liability tied to owning or occupying a property. Business owners policies serve operations such as apartment complexes, condo associations, restaurants, office condos, processing and service firms, trade contractors and wholesalers. Additional products include personal and commercial umbrella policies for extra liability protection, dwelling fire insurance for non-owner-occupied properties, inland marine coverage attached to home and business policies, and insurance for small to medium recreational watercraft. All products reach customers through a network of independent agents.
Safety Insurance was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts. It previously operated as Safety Holdings Inc. before adopting its current name in April 2002. Its shares are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker SAFT.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Finance
- Industry
- Property/Casualty insurance
- Website
- safetyinsurance.com
Safety Insurance GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Safety Insurance’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 48.5, in the Neutral zone, up 2 points over five sessions.
48.5Neutral
Up 2 points over five sessions.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 19 | +2.0% | +4.2% |
| Accumulation | 278 | +0.7% | +2.0% |
| Neutral (current zone) | 345 | −0.1% | 0.0% |
| Distribution | 24 | −0.4% | −1.2% |
| Selling | 16 | +2.0% | +4.0% |
Average SAFT share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the SAFT price, zone by zone.Track SAFT in Gekko
Is Safety Insurance stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Safety Insurance trades 15.2% above Gekko Fair Value of $90.12, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Safety Insurance shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$90.12
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
15.2% Overvalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 34.6% above the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open SAFT in Gekko
Safety Insurance insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Safety Insurance, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in SAFT were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for SAFT, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open SAFT in Gekko
Buybacks
Safety Insurance has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Dec 31, 2025
- $20.00M
- As a share of market cap
- 1.31%
From company filings.
Safety Insurance earnings: next date and track record
Safety Insurance reports on Nov 2, 2026 (21 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 3 of its last 6 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 2, 2026
21 days away
- EPS estimate
- $1.25
- Revenue estimate
- $533.8M
3 of 6reports beat the EPS estimate
±2.2%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | $1.58 est $1.53 | $299.6M est $315.3M | +0.4% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $1.91 est $0.00 | $323.2M | +5.4% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $1.45 est $1.60 | $316.3M | +1.4% |
| May 6, 2025 | $1.48 | $301.4M | −1.2% |
| Feb 25, 2025 | $0.55 | $21.16M | −3.9% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | $1.10 est $1.40 | — | −0.6% |
| Aug 7, 2024 | $1.18 est $1.30 | $268.2M | +0.7% |
| May 8, 2024 | $1.36 est $0.50 | $267.0M | +3.9% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Safety Insurance stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Safety Insurance is $70.00, −32.6% from the last close.
$70.00consensus 12-month target, −32.6% from the last close
0.0%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+7.6%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±0.2%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Safety Insurance seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Safety Insurance averaged +7.6% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +2.4% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +2.3% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +2.6% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +7.6% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +7.2% | 4 of 5 |
For scale, SAFT’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 3.8%.
Safety Insurance market cap and key statistics
Safety Insurance’s market cap is $1.52B, with a P/E ratio of 22.3 and revenue of $1.29B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $1.52B
- P/E ratio
- 22.3
- Forward P/E
- 17.1
- EPS, TTM
- $4.66
- Gekko Fair Value
- $90.12
Trading
- Volume
- 129,863
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 127,946
- 52-week high
- $104.01
- 52-week low
- $67.04
- Shares outstanding
- 14.68M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $1.29B
- Profit margin
- 5.3%
- Return on equity
- 7.8%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +21.0%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.17
- Typical daily move
- ±0.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±3.8%
- Dividend yield
- 3.54%
Safety Insurance stock news this week
Coverage of Safety Insurance this week reads neutral: 1 positive, 1 neutral and 1 negative headlines.
- Safety Insurance Group, Inc. Actuals & Estimates (NASDAQ:SAFT)TradingView, Oct 10
- Safety Insurance Group (SAFT) Rallies Sharply Following Strong Returns As Valuation Questions BuildSimply Wall Street, Oct 9
- GLAZER CAPITAL, LLC Buys Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT) -- ShGuruFocus, Oct 8
Safety Insurance peers
Safety Insurance’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| BRK.ABerkshire Hathaway | Neutral | 0.1% above |
| BRK.BBerkshire Hathaway | Neutral | 1.2% below |
| CBChubb | Neutral | 1.8% below |
| TRVTravelers Companies | Neutral | 1.6% above |
| HIGHartford Insurance | Neutral | 7.1% below |
| MKLMarkel | Neutral | 3.3% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Safety Insurance stock FAQ
What is Safety Insurance’s market cap?
Safety Insurance’s market cap is $1.52B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $103.83, with 14.68M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 22.3.
What is the Safety Insurance stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Safety Insurance is $70.00, −32.6% from the last close. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Safety Insurance stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Safety Insurance is overvalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $103.83 is 15.2% above Gekko Fair Value of $90.12. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Safety Insurance report earnings next?
Safety Insurance is expected to report on Nov 2, 2026 (21 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.25 per share on revenue of $533.8M. Safety Insurance beat the earnings estimate in 3 of its last 6 reports, moving 2.2% on average across the report.
What is Safety Insurance’s 52-week high and low?
Safety Insurance’s 52-week high is $104.01 and its 52-week low is $67.04; it closed at $103.83 on Oct 12, 2026, +50.0% over the past year.
Is Safety Insurance stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (trend and seasonality), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 2 as headwinds (fair value and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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