Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for UFCS in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every UFCS insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open UFCS in Gekko
NASDAQ: UFCS
United Fire (UFCS) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$56.00+0.86 (+1.6%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeUnited Fire shares continue to trade on momentum from the Q2 2026 earnings beat, with the stock heading toward its November 3 Q3 results. The prior quarter's adjusted operating income per share of $1.30 outpaced a $0.69 consensus estimate, with net written premium up 9% to $406 million. Coverage since has focused on the upcoming earnings date and call, scheduled for November 4, rather than new developments.
UFCS closed at $56.00, up 1.6%, sitting above both its 50-day average of $54.18 and its 200-day average of $45.16, with the shorter average above the longer one. The GekkoIndex reads 51.8, placing the stock in the Neutral zone, down 2.1 over the past five readings. Price sits just 0.3% above Gekko Fair Value of $55.85, leaving little gap between the two. The 52-week range spans $29.85 to $56.74, with the stock near the top of that band and up 82% over the past year.
Earnings are scheduled for 3 November, 21 days out, falling inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window and historically prone to large moves, with an average absolute reaction of 10% and a 4.5% reaction after the last report. Seasonality from this point in the calendar has averaged a 9% gain over the next 20 trading days across 5 years, rising in 4 of them. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the respective windows. Analyst coverage from 2 firms carries a consensus target of $58.50, implying 4.5% consensus upside.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
United Fire price vs fair value
Close $56.00200-day averageGekko Fair Value $55.85
United Fire quick facts
- Market cap
- $1.44B
- P/E ratio
- 10.2
- Forward P/E
- 14.1
- EPS, TTM
- $5.39
- Revenue, TTM
- $1.47B
- Profit margin
- 9.6%
- Dividend yield
- 1.28%
- Beta
- 0.47
- Volume
- 81,162 avg 131,740
- 1-year return
- +82.0%
- Typical daily move
- ±3.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.2%
- 50-day average
- $54.18
- 200-day average
- $45.16
- Next earnings
- Nov 3
- Shares outstanding
- 25.66M
United Fire swing-trade checklist
United Fire scores 2 supportive, 2 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
2 supportive2 mixed1 headwind
- Trendsupportive
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $56.00 is above the 50-day ($54.18) and 200-day ($45.16) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
51.8, Neutral
Reading 51.8 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuemixed
0.3% above
Price is within 5% of Gekko Fair Value (0.3% above).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 22 days
Reports on Nov 3, 2026, 22 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+9.0% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +9% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
United Fire stock chart and price history
United Fire closed at $56.00 on Oct 12, 2026, +82.0% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $29.85 to $56.74.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +1.1%
- 3 months
- +8.4%
- 6 months
- +40.3%
- 1 year
- +82.0%
The full UFCS chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open UFCS in Gekko
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About United Fire
United Fire sells property and casualty coverage to households and businesses across the United States. Its business customers can obtain multiple peril policies, inland marine protection, and coverage for fire and allied lines, general liability, vehicles, workplace injury claims, and fidelity and surety bonds. Households are able to purchase vehicle insurance as well as fire and allied lines protection, which extends to homeowners coverage.
Beyond writing its own policies, the company also takes on business through assumed reinsurance arrangements. Rather than selling directly to the public, it reaches customers by working with a network of independent insurance agencies that place policies on its behalf.
United Fire is based in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and dates back to 1946. Its stock trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker UFCS.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Finance
- Industry
- Property/Casualty insurance
- Website
- ufginsurance.com
United Fire GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
United Fire’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 51.8, in the Neutral zone, down 2.1 points over five sessions.
51.8Neutral
Down 2.1 points over five sessions.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 9 | Too few readings yet | |||
| Accumulation | 182 | +2.0% | +7.3% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 424 | 0.0% | +1.5% | ||
| Distribution | 59 | +1.8% | +1.7% | ||
| Selling | 8 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average UFCS share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the UFCS price, zone by zone.Track UFCS in Gekko
Is United Fire stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
United Fire trades 0.3% above Gekko Fair Value of $55.85, so the shares are about fair value on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what United Fire shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$55.85
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
0.3% above fair value · About fair value
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 4.4% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open UFCS in Gekko
United Fire insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for United Fire, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in UFCS were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for UFCS, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open UFCS in Gekko
Buybacks
United Fire has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $2.44M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.17%
- Trailing four quarters
- $7.81M
From company filings.
United Fire earnings: next date and track record
United Fire reports on Nov 3, 2026 (22 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 3, 2026
22 days away
- EPS estimate
- $1.23
- Revenue estimate
- $384.2M
8 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±10%average move across the report
7 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 3, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- UFG reported record Q2 2026 net income and net written premium, with best second quarter combined ratio in 15+ years and highest quarterly investment income in 10+ years. Net written premiums grew 9% YoY driven by core commercial lines. The company achieved 13.2% return on equity for H1 2026, its best year-to-date performance in 20 years. Average renewal rate change was 2.9% amid competitive market conditions.
- Guidance
- Management expressed confidence in navigating H2 2026 market conditions, citing deep underwriting expertise and strong agency relationships to support continued profitable growth. No specific numeric earnings or revenue targets were disclosed in this excerpt.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | $1.30 est $0.69 | $354.1M est $347.8M | +4.5% |
| May 5, 2026 | $1.16 est $0.87 | $343.0M est $340.2M | +9.6% |
| Feb 10, 2026 | $1.50 est $0.90 | $341.1M est $306.0M | +7.4% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $1.50 est $0.69 | $354.0M est $332.3M | +16.1% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | $0.90 est $0.57 | $336.6M est $345.2M | +7.7% |
| May 6, 2025 | $0.70 est $0.62 | $21.12M est $345.1M | −3.6% |
| Feb 11, 2025 | $1.25 est $0.61 | $331.7M est $327.7M | +3.4% |
| Nov 5, 2024 | $0.81 est $0.33 | $323.0M est $313.2M | +27.4% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
United Fire stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for United Fire is $58.50, +4.5% from the last close, from 2 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$58.50consensus 12-month target, +4.5% from the last close
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 2 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4 | JonesTrading | $57 | +1.8% |
| Aug 4 | Piper Sandler | $57 | +1.8% |
+1.5%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+9.0%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.2%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
United Fire seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, United Fire averaged +9.0% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +4.6% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +4.1% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −0.5% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +9.0% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +14.2% | 5 of 5 |
For scale, UFCS’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5.2%.
United Fire market cap and key statistics
United Fire’s market cap is $1.44B, with a P/E ratio of 10.2 and revenue of $1.47B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $1.44B
- P/E ratio
- 10.2
- Forward P/E
- 14.1
- EPS, TTM
- $5.39
- Gekko Fair Value
- $55.85
Trading
- Volume
- 81,162
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 131,740
- 52-week high
- $56.74
- 52-week low
- $29.85
- Shares outstanding
- 25.66M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $1.47B
- Profit margin
- 9.6%
- Return on equity
- 15.5%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +48.3%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.47
- Typical daily move
- ±3.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.2%
- Dividend yield
- 1.28%
United Fire stock news this week
Coverage of United Fire this week reads positive: 2 positive, 1 neutral and 0 negative headlines.
- United Fire Group stock heads toward November 3 results after Q2 beatAD HOC NEWS, Oct 7
- United Fire Group Q3 2026 Earnings Date and EstimatesMarketBeat, Oct 7
- United Fire Group stock reports a strong Q2 earnings beatAD HOC NEWS, Oct 5
United Fire peers
United Fire’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| BRK.ABerkshire Hathaway | Neutral | 0.1% above |
| BRK.BBerkshire Hathaway | Neutral | 1.2% below |
| CBChubb | Neutral | 1.8% below |
| TRVTravelers Companies | Neutral | 1.6% above |
| HIGHartford Insurance | Neutral | 7.1% below |
| MKLMarkel | Neutral | 3.3% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
United Fire stock FAQ
What is United Fire’s market cap?
United Fire’s market cap is $1.44B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $56.00, with 25.66M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 10.2.
What is the United Fire stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for United Fire is $58.50, +4.5% from the last close. Of the 2 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 2 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is United Fire stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate United Fire is about fair value: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $56.00 is 0.3% above Gekko Fair Value of $55.85. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does United Fire report earnings next?
United Fire is expected to report on Nov 3, 2026 (22 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.23 per share on revenue of $384.2M. United Fire beat the earnings estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports, moving 10% on average across the report.
What is United Fire’s 52-week high and low?
United Fire’s 52-week high is $56.74 and its 52-week low is $29.85; it closed at $56.00 on Oct 12, 2026, +82.0% over the past year.
Is United Fire stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (trend and seasonality), 2 as mixed (gekkoindex and fair value) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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