Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for NMIH in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every NMIH insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open NMIH in Gekko
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeOptions activity in NMI has drawn attention this week, with implied volatility surging in NMIH options as investors watch the moves closely. No other corporate, deal or regulatory news accompanies this shift, though it comes amid a stock that has already pulled back sharply over the past month.
NMI closes at $39.39, down 1.5%, sitting between its 50-day average of $43.23 and 200-day average of $40.14, with the one-month return at -10.3% and the three-month return at -6%, while the six-month and one-year returns remain positive at 0.4% and 9.9% respectively. The GekkoIndex reads 63.3, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, though down 7.2 over the past five readings. Price sits 14.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $45.94.
NMI's next earnings date falls on 3 November 2026, after the close, 22 days away and inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the last report on 30 July 2026 beat estimates with $1.38 per share against a $1.28 estimate, with a muted -0.1% reaction, and the company has beaten estimates in 6 of the last 8 quarters. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the respective windows. Seasonality from this point in the calendar has averaged +0.7% over the next 20 trading days across 5 years, rising in 3 of them. Analyst consensus among 6 firms stands at 4 buy and 2 hold ratings, with a consensus target of $49.86.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
NMI price vs fair value
Close $39.39200-day averageGekko Fair Value $45.94
NMI quick facts
- Market cap
- $2.99B
- P/E ratio
- 8
- Forward P/E
- 7.7
- EPS, TTM
- $5.08
- Revenue, TTM
- $730.8M
- Profit margin
- 54.1%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 0.56
- Volume
- 654,463 avg 749,217
- 1-year return
- +9.9%
- Typical daily move
- ±3%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.7%
- 50-day average
- $43.23
- 200-day average
- $40.14
- Next earnings
- Nov 3 after close
- Shares outstanding
- 75.22M
NMI swing-trade checklist
NMI scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $39.39 sits between the 50-day ($43.23) and 200-day ($40.14) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
63.3, Accumulation
Reading 63.3 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
14.3% below
Price is 14.3% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 22 days
Reports on Nov 3, 2026, 22 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+0.7% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +0.7% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
NMI stock chart and price history
NMI closed at $39.39 on Oct 12, 2026, +9.9% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $34.84 to $46.74.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −10.3%
- 3 months
- −6.0%
- 6 months
- +0.4%
- 1 year
- +9.9%
The full NMIH chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open NMIH in Gekko
Follow NMI through every session
Put NMIH on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.
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About NMI
NMI provides private mortgage guaranty insurance within the United States, covering lenders against losses on home loans. Alongside this coverage, it offers outsourced loan review work for mortgage originators, giving lenders a way to have loan files assessed without building that capability in house. The insurance line is the business it is most associated with.
Its customers span a wide range of mortgage lenders, including national and regional banks, large money center banks, credit unions, smaller community banks, lenders tied to homebuilders, online mortgage platforms, and other non-bank originators. This spread means NMI's insurance and loan review services reach both traditional banking institutions and newer, non-bank channels in the mortgage market.
NMI was incorporated in 2011 and operates out of Emeryville, California. Its shares are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker NMIH.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Finance
- Industry
- Property/Casualty insurance
- Website
- nationalmi.com
NMI GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
NMI’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 63.3, in the Accumulation zone, down 7.2 points over five sessions.
63.3Accumulation
Down 7.2 points over five sessions, from the Buying zone.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 33 | +0.9% | +6.9% |
| Accumulation (current zone) | 209 | +0.5% | +3.0% |
| Neutral | 389 | +0.2% | +0.1% |
| Distribution | 40 | −0.2% | −0.7% |
| Selling | 11 | +0.3% | −4.7% |
Average NMIH share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the NMIH price, zone by zone.Track NMIH in Gekko
Is NMI stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
NMI trades 14.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $45.94, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what NMI shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$45.94
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
14.3% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 5.7% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open NMIH in Gekko
NMI insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for NMI, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in NMIH were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for NMIH, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open NMIH in Gekko
Buybacks
NMI has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $32.29M
- As a share of market cap
- 1.08%
- Trailing four quarters
- $115.1M
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Dec 31
0of the funds Gekko tracks hold NMIH.
0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
NMI earnings: next date and track record
NMI reports on Nov 3, 2026, after the close (22 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 3, 2026
Expected after the close, 22 days away
- EPS estimate
- $1.29
- Revenue estimate
- $159.2M
6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.5%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 30, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- National MI (NMI) reported strong Q2 2026 results with record metrics across new insurance written (NIW), insurance in force, revenue, and adjusted net income. Management highlighted $16 billion of NIW, a record $227.1 billion primary insurance in force, total revenue of $187.9 million, and adjusted net income of $106 million (or $1.38 per diluted share) with ROE of 15.9%. Management emphasized continued demand for private mortgage insurance driven by affordability needs, a high-quality insured portfolio, disciplined underwriting, and diversified risk transfer (reinsurance/ILN). They noted favorable macro and housing market conditions but acknowledged remaining macro risks and seasonal dynamics that could push defaults higher later in the year. The company also discussed capital allocation and the repurchase program, reinsurance strategy favoring traditional reinsurers recently, and limited near-term impact from recent housing legislation. Q&A responses were confident and detailed, with management reiterating they do not provide forward-looking guidance.
- Risks flagged
- Macro risks (economic or housing market deterioration), seasonal headwinds in back half of year that typically raise defaults, regional pockets of pressure (Florida, Texas, parts of Sun Belt, Mountain West, West Coast), potential competitive pricing pressure in transactionally oriented segments, and variability in reinsurance/capital markets availability or terms.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | $1.38 est $1.28 | $157.5M est $156.3M | −0.1% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | $1.28 est $1.23 | $154.8M est $154.0M | −9.5% |
| Feb 10, 2026 | $1.20 est $1.19 | $152.5M est $152.7M | +2.5% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $1.21 est $1.21 | $178.7M est $180.7M | +0.1% |
| Jul 29, 2025 | $1.22 est $1.19 | $173.8M est $177.0M | −1.2% |
| Apr 29, 2025 | $1.28 est $1.12 | $173.2M est $167.9M | +8.1% |
| Feb 6, 2025 | $1.07 est $1.12 | $166.5M est $168.9M | −5.4% |
| Nov 6, 2024 | $1.15 est $1.13 | $166.1M est $150.1M | −0.8% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
NMI stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for NMI is $49.86, +26.6% from the last close, from 6 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$49.86consensus 12-month target, +26.6% from the last close
Now $39.39Avg $49.86
Low $43High $54
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 6 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12 | J.P. Morgan | $45 | +14.2% |
| Oct 7 | KBW | $47 | +19.3% |
| Oct 5 | Barclays | $43 | +9.2% |
| Sep 25 | BTIG | $54 | +37.1% |
| Sep 25 | KBW | — | — |
+3.0%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+0.7%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
NMI seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, NMI averaged +0.7% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +1.4% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +1.1% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +2.1% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +0.7% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | −2.4% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, NMIH’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5.7%.
NMI market cap and key statistics
NMI’s market cap is $2.99B, with a P/E ratio of 8 and revenue of $730.8M over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $2.99B
- P/E ratio
- 8
- Forward P/E
- 7.7
- EPS, TTM
- $5.08
- Gekko Fair Value
- $45.94
Trading
- Volume
- 654,463
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 749,217
- 52-week high
- $46.74
- 52-week low
- $34.84
- Shares outstanding
- 75.22M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $730.8M
- Profit margin
- 54.1%
- Return on equity
- 15.4%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +14.1%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.56
- Typical daily move
- ±3%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.7%
NMI stock news this week
1 headline about NMI from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.
- Implied Volatility Surging for NMI Holdings Stock OptionsZacks Investment Research, Oct 12
NMI peers
NMI’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| BRK.ABerkshire Hathaway | Neutral | 0.1% above |
| BRK.BBerkshire Hathaway | Neutral | 1.2% below |
| CBChubb | Neutral | 1.8% below |
| TRVTravelers Companies | Neutral | 1.6% above |
| HIGHartford Insurance | Neutral | 7.1% below |
| MKLMarkel | Neutral | 3.3% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
NMI stock FAQ
What is NMI’s market cap?
NMI’s market cap is $2.99B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $39.39, with 75.22M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 8.
What is the NMI stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for NMI is $49.86, +26.6% from the last close. Of the 6 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 4 rate it a buy, 2 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is NMI stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate NMI is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $39.39 is 14.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $45.94. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does NMI report earnings next?
NMI is expected to report on Nov 3, 2026, after the market closes (22 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.29 per share on revenue of $159.2M. NMI beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 3.5% on average across the report.
What is NMI’s 52-week high and low?
NMI’s 52-week high is $46.74 and its 52-week low is $34.84; it closed at $39.39 on Oct 12, 2026, +9.9% over the past year.
Is NMI stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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