Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for AFG in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every AFG insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open AFG in Gekko
NYSE: AFG
American Financial (AFG) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Sep 28 close
$138.18−0.04 (0.0%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryThis week's news flow for AFG is light, with only a general overview article and a 13F filing showing Corient Private Wealth LP reducing its stake in American Financial Group by 75.6% in the second quarter. Nothing in the way of earnings, guidance, deals, or regulatory developments has surfaced to explain price action, leaving the filing as the only notable item to mention.
AFG closes at $138.18, sitting between its 50-day average of $142.90 and its 200-day average of $135.23, a mixed trend signal. The stock has moved -3.1% over one month, -1.2% over three months, but is up 9.9% over six months. The GekkoIndex reads 70.6, placing it in the Buying zone. Against a Gekko Fair Value of $148.07, the current price reflects a gap of -6.7%.
Looking ahead, AFG's next earnings date is set for 3 November 2026, 35 days away, which falls outside a typical 20-trading-day holding window. The company's last report showed core operating earnings of $3.65 per share against an estimate of $3.18, with a -3% reaction, and it has beaten estimates in 6 of the last 8 quarters. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the current windows. Seasonality data shows the next 20 trading days have averaged a 0.1% return over 5 years, rising in 2 of them, a mixed historical pattern worth noting.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.
American Financial price vs fair value
Close $138.18200-day averageGekko Fair Value $148.07
American Financial quick facts
- Market cap
- $11.48B
- P/E ratio
- 12.1
- Forward P/E
- 11.5
- EPS, TTM
- $11.44
- Revenue, TTM
- $8.06B
- Profit margin
- 11.8%
- Dividend yield
- 2.54%
- Beta
- 0.60
- Volume
- 328,336 avg 348,015
- 1-year return
- −3.5%
- Typical daily move
- ±1.5%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±3.3%
- 50-day average
- $142.90
- 200-day average
- $135.23
- Next earnings
- Nov 3
- Shares outstanding
- 82.92M
American Financial swing-trade checklist
American Financial scores 3 supportive, 2 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive2 mixed0 headwinds
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $138.18 sits between the 50-day ($142.90) and 200-day ($135.23) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
70.6, Buying
Reading 70.6 is in the Buying zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
6.7% below
Price is 6.7% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 35 days
Next report Nov 3, 2026, 35 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitymixed
+0.1% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +0.1% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
American Financial stock chart and price history
American Financial closed at $138.18 on Sep 28, 2026, −3.5% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $123.09 to $150.02.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −3.1%
- 3 months
- −1.2%
- 6 months
- +9.9%
- 1 year
- −3.5%
The full AFG chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open AFG in Gekko
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About American Financial
American Financial runs an insurance holding business that writes property and casualty coverage for customers across the United States. Among its offerings are policies covering buses, trucks and other vehicles used in transportation, alongside marine coverage for inland and ocean shipments, farming-related insurance, and additional commercial and transport-focused products. The company has also built a name in specialty casualty lines, covering areas like excess and surplus insurance, liability for executives and professionals, general liability, and umbrella policies that extend beyond standard limits.
On top of these lines, American Financial designs insurance packages aimed at smaller and mid-sized companies and writes workers' compensation policies. It rounds out its offerings with financial insurance products, such as coverage for lenders and leasing firms, bonds guaranteeing fidelity and performance, and insurance against trade credit losses. Most of its policies reach the market through independent agents and brokers who sell on the company's behalf.
The company dates back to 1872 and runs its operations from Cincinnati, Ohio. Its stock trades on the NYSE under the symbol AFG.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Finance
- Industry
- Property/Casualty insurance
- Website
- afginc.com
American Financial GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
American Financial’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 70.6, in the Buying zone, up 6.2 points over five sessions.
70.6Buying
Up 6.2 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.
Reading for Sep 28, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying (current zone) | 19 | +1.1% | +2.3% | ||
| Accumulation | 186 | +0.8% | +2.1% | ||
| Neutral | 443 | −0.1% | −0.1% | ||
| Distribution | 22 | −0.3% | +0.9% | ||
| Selling | 2 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average AFG share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Buying readings averaged +3.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Buying zone: Smart money likely accumulating heavily. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the AFG price, zone by zone.Track AFG in Gekko
Is American Financial stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
American Financial trades 6.7% below Gekko Fair Value of $148.07, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what American Financial shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$148.07
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026
6.7% Undervalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open AFG in Gekko
American Financial insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for American Financial, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in AFG were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for AFG, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open AFG in Gekko
Buybacks
American Financial has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $26.00M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.23%
- Trailing four quarters
- $88.00M
From company filings.
American Financial earnings: next date and track record
American Financial reports on Nov 3, 2026 (35 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 3, 2026
35 days away
- EPS estimate
- $3.50
- Revenue estimate
- $2.40B
6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.5%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Feb 3, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- AFG reported strong Q4 2025 results with core operating earnings of $3.65 per share and full-year earnings of $10.29 per share, generating an 18.2% core operating ROE. The company returned over $700 million to shareholders in 2025, including $334 million in special dividends and regular dividends. P&C net investment income was down 12% in Q4 due to lower alternative investment returns, though fixed maturity investments now yield approximately 5.25%.
- Guidance
- Management expects multifamily investment recovery in the second half of 2026 due to tightening supply. They maintain long-term expectations of 10% or better annual returns from their alternative investment portfolio.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2026 | $3.65 est $3.18 | $1.44B est $1.90B | −3.0% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $2.69 est $2.52 | $2.30B est $1.98B | +3.7% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | $2.14 est $2.08 | $1.92B est $1.89B | +3.3% |
| May 6, 2025 | $1.81 est $2.03 | $1.86B est $1.70B | −5.5% |
| Feb 4, 2025 | $3.12 est $3.01 | $2.15B est $2.04B | −6.7% |
| Nov 5, 2024 | $2.31 est $2.46 | $2.37B est $1.82B | +5.5% |
| Aug 6, 2024 | $2.56 est $2.45 | $1.89B est $1.72B | +0.1% |
| May 1, 2024 | $2.76 est $2.70 | $1.88B est $1.76B | −0.1% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
American Financial stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for American Financial is $155.83, +12.8% from the last close, from 4 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$155.83consensus 12-month target, +12.8% from the last close
Now $138.18Avg $155.83
Low $153High $175
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 4 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28 | Piper Sandler | $156 | +12.9% |
| Aug 24 | Raymond James | — | — |
| Aug 17 | Wells Fargo | $175 | +26.6% |
| Aug 11 | KBW | $153 | +10.7% |
| Aug 10 | Piper Sandler | $156 | +12.9% |
+2.3%average 20-day move after past Buying readings
+0.1%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±1.5%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
American Financial seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, American Financial averaged +0.1% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +3.1% | 5 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +0.9% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −0.5% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +0.1% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +6.7% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, AFG’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 3.3%.
American Financial market cap and key statistics
American Financial’s market cap is $11.48B, with a P/E ratio of 12.1 and revenue of $8.06B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $11.48B
- P/E ratio
- 12.1
- Forward P/E
- 11.5
- EPS, TTM
- $11.44
- Gekko Fair Value
- $148.07
Trading
- Volume
- 328,336
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 348,015
- 52-week high
- $150.02
- 52-week low
- $123.09
- Shares outstanding
- 82.92M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $8.06B
- Profit margin
- 11.8%
- Return on equity
- 20.4%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +44.3%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.60
- Typical daily move
- ±1.5%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±3.3%
- Dividend yield
- 2.54%
American Financial stock news this week
2 headlines about American Financial from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.
- Corient Private Wealth LP Reduces Position in American Financial Group, Inc. $AFGDefense World, Sep 28
- American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) stock price, news, quote and historyYahoo Finance Singapore, Sep 26
American Financial peers
American Financial’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| BRK.BBerkshire Hathaway | Accumulation | 3.7% below |
| BRK.ABerkshire Hathaway | Accumulation | 2.8% below |
| CBChubb | Accumulation | 6.2% below |
| TRVTravelers Companies | Accumulation | 1.3% below |
| HIGHartford Insurance | Buying | 11.4% below |
| LLoews | Buying | 15.3% above |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
American Financial stock FAQ
What is American Financial’s market cap?
American Financial’s market cap is $11.48B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $138.18, with 82.92M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 12.1.
What is the American Financial stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for American Financial is $155.83, +12.8% from the last close. Of the 4 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 1 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is American Financial stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate American Financial is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $138.18 is 6.7% below Gekko Fair Value of $148.07. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does American Financial report earnings next?
American Financial is expected to report on Nov 3, 2026 (35 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $3.50 per share on revenue of $2.40B. American Financial beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 3.5% on average across the report.
What is American Financial’s 52-week high and low?
American Financial’s 52-week high is $150.02 and its 52-week low is $123.09; it closed at $138.18 on Sep 28, 2026, −3.5% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $152.29 on Apr 21, 2022.
Is American Financial stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and earnings risk), 2 as mixed (trend and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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