Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for ERIE in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every ERIE insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ERIE in Gekko
NASDAQ: ERIE
Erie Indemnity (ERIE) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Sep 28 close
$221.92−0.94 (−0.4%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryERIE closes at $221.92, down 0.4% on the day, sitting below both its 50-day average of $245.05 and its 200-day average of $250.20, with the 50-day itself below the 200-day. Over the past month the shares have fallen 14.5%, extending a six-month decline of 7.9% and a one-year drop of 29.1%. The GekkoIndex reads 67.2, placing ERIE in the Accumulation zone. Against this, price sits 15% above the Gekko Fair Value of $193.03.
The next earnings report is due 29 October 2026, 30 days away, which falls outside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior quarter, reported 30 July 2026, showed EPS of $3.45 against an estimate of $3.35 but triggered a share reaction of -2.6%. Over the last 30 days, one unusual options signal has appeared, with call premium of $332,270 against no put premium. One analyst firm carries a buy rating, with a consensus target of $115 implying a consensus upside of -48.2%. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 1.9% gain over 5 years, rising in 3 of them, worth noting alongside the current setup.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.
Erie Indemnity price vs fair value
Close $221.92200-day averageGekko Fair Value $193.03
Erie Indemnity quick facts
- Market cap
- $10.25B
- P/E ratio
- 20.2
- Forward P/E
- 26.7
- EPS, TTM
- $11.01
- Revenue, TTM
- $4.12B
- Profit margin
- 14%
- Dividend yield
- 2.63%
- Beta
- 0.31
- Volume
- 111,364 avg 296,267
- 1-year return
- −29.1%
- Typical daily move
- ±3.4%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.5%
- 50-day average
- $245.05
- 200-day average
- $250.20
- Next earnings
- Oct 29
- Shares outstanding
- 46.19M
Erie Indemnity swing-trade checklist
Erie Indemnity scores 4 supportive, 0 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
4 supportive0 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $221.92 is below the 50-day ($245.05) and 200-day ($250.20) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
67.2, Accumulation
Reading 67.2 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valueheadwind
15.0% above
Price is 15% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 30 days: 1 unusual options signal.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 30 days
Next report Oct 29, 2026, 30 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+1.9% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +1.9% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Erie Indemnity stock chart and price history
Erie Indemnity closed at $221.92 on Sep 28, 2026, −29.1% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $204.63 to $330.54.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −14.5%
- 3 months
- −6.6%
- 6 months
- −7.9%
- 1 year
- −29.1%
The full ERIE chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open ERIE in Gekko
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About Erie Indemnity
Erie Indemnity acts as the managing attorney-in-fact for subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. In this role it handles policy issuance and renewals, and is best known for the range of support functions it performs on behalf of the exchange rather than for underwriting insurance risk itself.
Its work spans several service lines, including sales-related activities such as agent compensation, advertising and sales support, along with underwriting and policy processing functions. It also supplies customer service, administrative support and information technology services, effectively running the operational backbone that allows the Erie Insurance Exchange and its subscribers to function.
The company was incorporated in 1925 and is headquartered in Erie, Pennsylvania. Its shares are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker ERIE.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Finance
- Industry
- Property/Casualty insurance
- Website
- erieinsurance.com
Erie Indemnity GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Erie Indemnity’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 67.2, in the Accumulation zone, up 1.5 points over five sessions.
67.2Accumulation
Up 1.5 points over five sessions.
Reading for Sep 28, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 43 | −0.3% | +0.5% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 285 | +0.4% | −0.2% | ||
| Neutral | 297 | −1.0% | −2.8% | ||
| Distribution | 43 | +1.0% | +8.8% | ||
| Selling | 4 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average ERIE share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the ERIE price, zone by zone.Track ERIE in Gekko
Is Erie Indemnity stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Erie Indemnity trades 15.0% above Gekko Fair Value of $193.03, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Erie Indemnity shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$193.03
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026
15.0% Overvalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open ERIE in Gekko
Erie Indemnity insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Erie Indemnity, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in ERIE were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for ERIE, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ERIE in Gekko
Unusual options activity last 30 days
1signal, 100% of the flagged premium in calls.
Latest: Bullish flow on Sep 19, $332K in unusual premium.
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium.Unlock in Gekko
Erie Indemnity earnings: next date and track record
Erie Indemnity reports on Oct 29, 2026 (30 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 29, 2026
30 days away
- EPS estimate
- $3.41
- Revenue estimate
- $1.09B
5 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±6.1%average move across the report
2 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 30, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Erie Indemnity reported Q2 2026 combined ratio of 103.9%, improving 13 points year-over-year from 116.9%. Direct written premium grew 3.3% in Q2, moderating from 9.2% in Q2 2025. Catastrophe losses impacted combined ratio by 15 points versus 22 points in prior year. Policyholder surplus increased to $10.7 billion from $10.1 billion at year-end 2025. ErieSecure Auto launched in Pennsylvania in May as a key growth initiative.
- Guidance
- Management expects continued moderation in premium growth as pricing becomes more adequate and competitive pressures persist. Focus remains on profitable growth with targeted rate reductions rather than broad rate cuts. Policies in force declined 2% with retention at 87.5%.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | $3.45 est $3.35 | $1.09B est $1.09B | −2.6% |
| Feb 23, 2026 | −$0.33 est $1.59 | $951.0M est $975.6M | −5.9% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | $3.50 est $3.37 | $1.30B est $975.6M | −3.1% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | $3.35 est $3.55 | $1.06B est $1.09B | −0.4% |
| Apr 24, 2025 | $2.65 est $3.19 | $989.4M est $986.5M | −12.1% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | $2.91 est $2.90 | $338.7M est $925.1M | +7.1% |
| Oct 31, 2024 | $3.06 est $3.02 | $999.9M est $985.1M | −7.8% |
| Jul 25, 2024 | $3.13 est $2.58 | $988.2M est $934.0M | +9.9% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Erie Indemnity stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Erie Indemnity is $115.00, −48.2% from the last close, from 1 firm rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$115.00consensus 12-month target, −48.2% from the last close
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 1 firm.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31 | William Blair | — | — |
−0.2%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+1.9%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.4%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Erie Indemnity seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 26, Erie Indemnity averaged +1.9% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +1.0% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +3.7% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +3.0% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +1.9% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +2.3% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, ERIE’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5.5%.
Erie Indemnity market cap and key statistics
Erie Indemnity’s market cap is $10.25B, with a P/E ratio of 20.2 and revenue of $4.12B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $10.25B
- P/E ratio
- 20.2
- Forward P/E
- 26.7
- EPS, TTM
- $11.01
- Gekko Fair Value
- $193.03
Trading
- Volume
- 111,364
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 296,267
- 52-week high
- $330.54
- 52-week low
- $204.63
- Shares outstanding
- 46.19M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $4.12B
- Profit margin
- 14%
- Return on equity
- 24.8%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +3.2%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.31
- Typical daily move
- ±3.4%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.5%
- Dividend yield
- 2.63%
Erie Indemnity peers
Erie Indemnity’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| BRK.BBerkshire Hathaway | Accumulation | 3.7% below |
| BRK.ABerkshire Hathaway | Accumulation | 2.8% below |
| CBChubb | Accumulation | 6.2% below |
| TRVTravelers Companies | Accumulation | 1.3% below |
| HIGHartford Insurance | Buying | 11.4% below |
| LLoews | Buying | 15.3% above |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Erie Indemnity stock FAQ
What is Erie Indemnity’s market cap?
Erie Indemnity’s market cap is $10.25B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $221.92, with 46.19M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 20.2.
What is the Erie Indemnity stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Erie Indemnity is $115.00, −48.2% from the last close. Of the 1 firm that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 1 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Erie Indemnity stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Erie Indemnity is overvalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $221.92 is 15.0% above Gekko Fair Value of $193.03. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Erie Indemnity report earnings next?
Erie Indemnity is expected to report on Oct 29, 2026 (30 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $3.41 per share on revenue of $1.09B. Erie Indemnity beat the earnings estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, moving 6.1% on average across the report.
What is Erie Indemnity’s 52-week high and low?
Erie Indemnity’s 52-week high is $330.54 and its 52-week low is $204.63; it closed at $221.92 on Sep 28, 2026, −29.1% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $547.00 on Sep 25, 2024.
Is Erie Indemnity stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, smart money, earnings risk and seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (trend and fair value). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
Is there unusual options activity in Erie Indemnity?
Gekko flagged 1 unusual options signal in Erie Indemnity over the last 30 days, with $332K of flagged premium in calls and $0 in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Sep 19, 2026 with $332K in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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