Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for MTN in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every MTN insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MTN in Gekko
NYSE: MTN
Vail Resorts (MTN) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Sep 28 close
$138.09+1.98 (+1.5%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryVail Resorts reported fourth-quarter and full fiscal-year 2026 results on 28 September and issued its outlook for fiscal 2027. The company posted a loss of $190.2 million for the year, compared with a loss of $5.08 per share a year ago, after revenue topped estimates. Chief Executive Officer Rob Katz described an exceptionally challenging weather year across key markets, saying results still demonstrated the resilience of the advance commitment model. Separately, the Colorado Supreme Court dismissed a lawsuit filed by an injured snowboarder against Vail Resorts, citing a liability waiver tied to season-pass purchases.
MTN closes at $138.09, up 1.5%, sitting between its 50-day average of $144.08 and its 200-day average of $137.77, a mixed trend signal. The GekkoIndex reading of 62.7 places the stock in the Accumulation zone. Price stands 30.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $198.05.
Over the next 20 trading days, no confirmed earnings date appears on the calendar. In the last 30 days there has been 1 unusual options signal, with call premium of $290,400 and no put premium recorded. Seasonally, this point in the calendar has produced an average 20-day return of -1.3% across 5 years, rising in 2 of them. Analyst consensus among 9 firms shows 2 buy, 5 hold and 2 sell ratings, with a consensus target of $144.77, implying 4.8% upside from current levels.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.
Vail Resorts price vs fair value
Close $138.09200-day averageGekko Fair Value $198.05
Vail Resorts quick facts
- Market cap
- $4.92B
- P/E ratio
- 30.2
- Forward P/E
- 21.9
- EPS, TTM
- $4.56
- Revenue, TTM
- $2.83B
- Profit margin
- 5.5%
- Dividend yield
- 6.34%
- Beta
- 0.70
- Volume
- 1.63M avg 946,592
- 1-year return
- −5.9%
- Typical daily move
- ±3.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.2%
- 50-day average
- $144.08
- 200-day average
- $137.77
- Next earnings
- —
- Shares outstanding
- 35.63M
Vail Resorts swing-trade checklist
Vail Resorts scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $138.09 sits between the 50-day ($144.08) and 200-day ($137.77) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
62.7, Accumulation
Reading 62.7 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
30.3% below
Price is 30.3% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 30 days: 1 unusual options signal.
See smart money - Earnings riskno data
No data
No confirmed report date on the calendar.
See earnings - Seasonalityheadwind
−1.3% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −1.3% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Vail Resorts stock chart and price history
Vail Resorts closed at $138.09 on Sep 28, 2026, −5.9% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $118.51 to $163.34.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −4.5%
- 3 months
- +2.1%
- 6 months
- +9.2%
- 1 year
- −5.9%
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About Vail Resorts
Vail Resorts runs a collection of mountain resorts and ski areas across the United States through several subsidiaries. It is best known for managing 37 mountain destinations and regional ski facilities, alongside services such as ski lessons, dining, retail and equipment rentals, and real estate brokerage tied to those locations.
The company organizes its work into three segments. The Mountain segment covers the resorts themselves and their related visitor services. The Lodging segment owns and manages hotels, condominiums, and other accommodations, including properties under the RockResorts brand, plus condominiums near Vail's resorts, destination resorts, golf courses, and ground transportation for guests. The Real Estate segment handles buying, developing, and selling property assets.
Vail Resorts was formed in 1997 and is headquartered in Broomfield, Colorado. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker MTN.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer services
- Industry
- Hotels/Resorts/Cruise lines
- Website
- vailresorts.com
Vail Resorts GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Vail Resorts’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 62.7, in the Accumulation zone, up 1.8 points over five sessions.
62.7Accumulation
Up 1.8 points over five sessions.
Reading for Sep 28, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 34 | +1.0% | −0.4% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 279 | +0.3% | +0.2% | ||
| Neutral | 342 | −0.7% | −2.4% | ||
| Distribution | 8 | Too few readings yet | |||
| Selling | 9 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average MTN share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the MTN price, zone by zone.Track MTN in Gekko
Is Vail Resorts stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Vail Resorts trades 30.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $198.05, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Vail Resorts shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$198.05
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026
30.3% Undervalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open MTN in Gekko
Vail Resorts insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Vail Resorts, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in MTN were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for MTN, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MTN in Gekko
Buybacks
Vail Resorts has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jan 31, 2026
- $45.00M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.91%
- Trailing four quarters
- $278.9M
From company filings.
Unusual options activity last 30 days
1signal, 100% of the flagged premium in calls.
Latest: Bullish flow on Sep 5, $290K in unusual premium.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
0of the funds Gekko tracks hold MTN.
0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko
Vail Resorts earnings: next date and track record
Vail Resorts beat the EPS estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports, moving 3.1% on average across the report.
3 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.1%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jun 8, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Vail Resorts reported fiscal Q3 2026 results heavily impacted by historically adverse weather in the Rockies, where industry-wide visitation declined ~24%, the worst on record outside COVID. Resort EBITDA guidance midpoint implies a 12% year-over-year decline and 14% miss versus original FY2026 guidance. Positive offsets included record guest experience scores, full staffing, improved employee safety metrics, and early traction from marketing and lift ticket strategy changes including Epic Friend Tickets at 50% discount.
- Guidance
- Updated FY2026 guidance midpoint implies resort EBITDA down 12% year-over-year and 14% below original September 2025 guidance, comparable in magnitude to the 2012 weather miss despite far worse snowfall conditions. Management reaffirmed commitment to advanced commitment strategy and resource efficiency transformation plan.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | $8.81 est $8.96 | $1.21B est $1.20B | −3.0% |
| Mar 9, 2026 | $5.87 est $6.15 | $1.08B est $1.10B | −2.6% |
| Dec 10, 2025 | −$5.20 est −$5.16 | $271.0M est $277.6M | +6.4% |
| Sep 29, 2025 | −$5.08 est −$4.72 | $271.2M est $274.4M | +1.2% |
| Jun 5, 2025 | $10.54 est $10.06 | $1.30B est $1.30B | −2.5% |
| Mar 10, 2025 | $6.56 est $6.45 | $1.14B est $1.14B | +5.0% |
| Dec 9, 2024 | −$4.61 est −$5.00 | $260.3M est $249.8M | +2.5% |
| Sep 26, 2024 | −$4.67 est −$4.21 | $265.4M est $264.8M | −1.2% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Vail Resorts stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Vail Resorts is $144.77, +4.8% from the last close, from 9 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$144.77consensus 12-month target, +4.8% from the last close
Now $138.09Avg $144.77
Low $119High $161
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 9 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | Stifel Nicolaus | $161 | +16.6% |
| Sep 24 | Mizuho Securities | $160 | +15.9% |
| Sep 23 | Barclays | $119 | −13.8% |
| Sep 21 | Exane BNP Paribas | $135 | −2.2% |
| Sep 18 | Bank of America Securities | $140 | +1.4% |
+0.2%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
−1.3%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.2%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Vail Resorts seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Vail Resorts averaged −1.3% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +0.2% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −0.2% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −1.3% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | −1.3% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +1.7% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, MTN’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5.2%.
Vail Resorts market cap and key statistics
Vail Resorts’s market cap is $4.92B, with a P/E ratio of 30.2 and revenue of $2.83B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $4.92B
- P/E ratio
- 30.2
- Forward P/E
- 21.9
- EPS, TTM
- $4.56
- Gekko Fair Value
- $198.05
Trading
- Volume
- 1.63M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 946,592
- 52-week high
- $163.34
- 52-week low
- $118.51
- Shares outstanding
- 35.63M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $2.83B
- Profit margin
- 5.5%
- Return on equity
- 16.9%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −15.8%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.70
- Typical daily move
- ±3.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.2%
- Dividend yield
- 6.34%
Vail Resorts stock news this week
Coverage of Vail Resorts this week reads neutral: 6 positive, 9 neutral and 1 negative headlines.
- Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) Q4 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptSeeking Alpha, Sep 28
- Vail Resorts Q4 Earnings Call HighlightsMarketBeat, Sep 28
- Vail Resorts (MTN) Reports Q4 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to SayZacks Investment Research, Sep 28
- Vail Resorts (MTN) Reports Q4 Loss, Tops Revenue EstimatesZacks Investment Research, Sep 28
- Vail Resorts Loss Widens After a Year of Tough WeatherWSJ, Sep 28
- Vail Resorts Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2026 Results and Provides Fiscal 2027 OutlookPRNewsWire, Sep 28
Vail Resorts peers
Vail Resorts’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| MARMarriott International | Neutral | 22.2% above |
| ABNBAirbnb | Accumulation | 1.5% above |
| HLTHilton Worldwide | Neutral | 17.8% above |
| RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises | Accumulation | 21.7% below |
| VIKViking | Buying | 21.0% below |
| CCLCarnival | Accumulation | 23.0% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Vail Resorts stock FAQ
What is Vail Resorts’s market cap?
Vail Resorts’s market cap is $4.92B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $138.09, with 35.63M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 30.2.
What is the Vail Resorts stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Vail Resorts is $144.77, +4.8% from the last close. Of the 9 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 2 rate it a buy, 5 a hold and 2 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Vail Resorts stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Vail Resorts is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $138.09 is 30.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $198.05. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
What is Vail Resorts’s 52-week high and low?
Vail Resorts’s 52-week high is $163.34 and its 52-week low is $118.51; it closed at $138.09 on Sep 28, 2026, −5.9% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $376.24 on Nov 8, 2021.
Is Vail Resorts stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and smart money), 1 as mixed (trend) and 1 as a headwind (seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
Is there unusual options activity in Vail Resorts?
Gekko flagged 1 unusual options signal in Vail Resorts over the last 30 days, with $290K of flagged premium in calls and $0 in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Sep 5, 2026 with $290K in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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