Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for MSM in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every MSM insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MSM in Gekko
NYSE: MSM
MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Sep 28 close
$122.14+0.92 (+0.8%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryThis week's coverage centers on a comparison between MSC Industrial Direct and peer Rush Enterprises, weighing institutional ownership, risk, valuation, analyst recommendations and dividends across the two mid-cap industrials names. No fresh company-specific results, guidance or regulatory news accompanied the piece.
MSM closed at $122.14, up 0.8%, sitting above both its 50-day average of $121.83 and its 200-day average of $104.51, with the 50-day itself above the 200-day. The GekkoIndex reads 55.5, placing the stock in the Neutral zone, down 0.7 over five days. Shares trade 14.3% above the Gekko Fair Value of $106.83. Over the past year the stock has returned 36.9%, with six-month gains of 35.3%, while the 52-week range spans $78.80 to $130.46.
The next earnings report is scheduled for 22 October 2026, before the open, 23 days out and inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior quarter's EPS of $0.82 missed the $0.84 estimate and drew a -2.1% reaction. Over the last 30 days there has been 1 unusual options signal, with call premium of $418,692 and no put premium recorded. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 1.1% gain over 5 years, rising in 3 of them. Analyst consensus stands at 3 buy and 3 hold ratings among 6 firms, with a consensus target of 131.00.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.
MSC Industrial Direct price vs fair value
Close $122.14200-day averageGekko Fair Value $106.83
MSC Industrial Direct quick facts
- Market cap
- $6.82B
- P/E ratio
- 29.3
- Forward P/E
- 23.5
- EPS, TTM
- $4.14
- Revenue, TTM
- $3.91B
- Profit margin
- 5.9%
- Dividend yield
- 2.88%
- Beta
- 0.82
- Volume
- 520,300 avg 698,034
- 1-year return
- +36.9%
- Typical daily move
- ±2.4%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4.3%
- 50-day average
- $121.83
- 200-day average
- $104.51
- Next earnings
- Oct 22 before open
- Shares outstanding
- 55.85M
MSC Industrial Direct swing-trade checklist
MSC Industrial Direct scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive1 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendsupportive
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $122.14 is above the 50-day ($121.83) and 200-day ($104.51) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
55.5, Neutral
Reading 55.5 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valueheadwind
14.3% above
Price is 14.3% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 30 days: 1 unusual options signal.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 23 days
Reports on Oct 22, 2026, 23 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+1.1% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +1.1% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
MSC Industrial Direct stock chart and price history
MSC Industrial Direct closed at $122.14 on Sep 28, 2026, +36.9% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $78.80 to $130.46.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +0.1%
- 3 months
- +4.7%
- 6 months
- +35.3%
- 1 year
- +36.9%
The full MSM chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open MSM in Gekko
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About MSC Industrial Direct
MSC Industrial Direct distributes industrial goods used in metalworking and in the upkeep and running of facilities, reaching buyers across the United States, Canada, Mexico and the United Kingdom. Among the items it carries are cutting tools, precision measuring gear, tooling parts, metalworking supplies, fasteners, bar and sheet stock, raw materials, abrasives, machinery, hand and power tools, safety and janitorial goods, plumbing fixtures, materials handling gear, power transmission parts and electrical components. The company lists close to 1.9 million individual product codes in its offering.
Orders come in through printed catalogs, online channels including the mscdirect.com site, software that helps clients track and manage their inventory, and direct contact through call centers or nearby branches. To move product it relies on a network built around 28 branches, 11 fulfillment centers for customers, and seven centers holding regional inventory. Its buyers include small machine shops, large manufacturers on the scale of the Fortune 1000, public sector agencies and manufacturing firms of varying sizes.
The company dates back to 1941 and is headquartered in Melville, New York. Its stock trades on the NYSE under the ticker MSM.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Distribution services
- Industry
- Wholesale distributors
- Website
- mscdirect.com
MSC Industrial Direct GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
MSC Industrial Direct’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 55.5, in the Neutral zone, down 0.7 points over five sessions.
55.5Neutral
Down 0.7 points over five sessions.
Reading for Sep 28, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 29 | +0.6% | +0.6% | ||
| Accumulation | 212 | +0.9% | +0.9% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 398 | 0.0% | +0.9% | ||
| Distribution | 32 | −0.8% | +0.1% | ||
| Selling | 1 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average MSM share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the MSM price, zone by zone.Track MSM in Gekko
Is MSC Industrial Direct stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
MSC Industrial Direct trades 14.3% above Gekko Fair Value of $106.83, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what MSC Industrial Direct shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$106.83
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026
14.3% Overvalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open MSM in Gekko
MSC Industrial Direct insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for MSC Industrial Direct, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in MSM were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for MSM, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MSM in Gekko
Buybacks
MSC Industrial Direct has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended May 30, 2026
- $171K
- As a share of market cap
- 0.00%
- Trailing four quarters
- $14.07M
From company filings.
Unusual options activity last 30 days
1signal, 100% of the flagged premium in calls.
Latest: Bullish flow on Sep 24, $419K in unusual premium.
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium.Unlock in Gekko
MSC Industrial Direct earnings: next date and track record
MSC Industrial Direct reports on Oct 22, 2026, before the open (23 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 22, 2026
Expected before the open, 23 days away
- EPS estimate
- $1.40
- Revenue estimate
- $1.07B
5 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±2.9%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Apr 1, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- MSC Industrial Supply reported fiscal 2Q sales of $918 million, up 2.9% year-over-year driven primarily by price (+6.6%) while volumes declined ~4%. Average daily sales (ADS) growth of 2.9% missed the midpoint of guidance (4.5%) due to a combination of weather-related disruptions, a partial federal government shutdown, and execution noise from the final phase of a sales-organization restructuring that impacted ~130 customer-facing roles. Management highlighted continued strength in core customers (core ADS up ~6% YoY), flat national accounts, and growth in solutions (vending machines installed +8% YoY to ~30,400; In-Plant programs +9% to 423). Management took a small, surgical price increase in March (<1%) and expects additional supplier-driven price actions (notably in carbide/tungsten-related cutting tools) to take effect around May–June. They are targeting restoration of operating margins to the mid-teens through a combination of accelerating organic sales growth and further cost/efficiency initiatives (automation, AI, productivity improvements). Management expressed cautious optimism on demand, citing improving month-to-date March trends, MBI above 50 for two consecutive months, and customer conversations focused on securing supply rather than pulling back demand. Q&A addressed pricing dynamics, tungsten input-cost pressures, headcount changes and future OpEx leverage.
- Guidance
- Management expects average daily sales acceleration into April and May, targeting roughly 7%+ growth in April/May (Q3 midpoint implies ~7% growth). They noted price benefit in Q3 should be similar to Q2 and suggested modeling 6.5%–7% year-over-year pricing in the back half of the fiscal year. Additional supplier-driven price actions (particularly on carbide/cutting tools tied to tungsten) are expected in May–June. No formal numeric revenue or EPS guidance was presented on the call beyond these directional comments; next earnings call is July 1.
- Risks flagged
- Supplier-driven commodity and input-cost inflation (notably tungsten/carbide) with multiple supplier price notices; potential supply constraints; weather and timing disruptions (which impacted handovers after sales restructure); partial federal government shutdown impacts on public sector demand; macroeconomic uncertainty could affect national accounts and end markets; potential demand destruction if commodity-driven price increases become extreme; execution risk in sales restructuring and attrition-related service gaps.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2026 | $0.82 est $0.84 | $917.8M est $931.7M | −2.1% |
| Jan 7, 2026 | $0.99 est $0.95 | $965.7M est $962.6M | −1.2% |
| Oct 23, 2025 | $1.09 est $1.02 | $978.2M est $964.3M | +1.1% |
| Jul 1, 2025 | $1.08 est $1.03 | $971.1M est $969.2M | +5.4% |
| Apr 3, 2025 | $0.72 est $0.68 | $891.7M est $899.6M | −10.2% |
| Jan 8, 2025 | $0.86 est $0.73 | $928.5M est $906.9M | +0.1% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | $1.03 est $1.08 | $952.3M est $959.7M | −2.7% |
| Jul 2, 2024 | $1.33 est $1.33 | $979.4M est $959.7M | +0.4% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
MSC Industrial Direct stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for MSC Industrial Direct is $131.00, +7.3% from the last close, from 6 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$131.00consensus 12-month target, +7.3% from the last close
Now $122.14Avg $131.00
Low $145High $155
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 6 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | D.A. Davidson | — | — |
| Sep 15 | Wolfe Research | — | — |
| Jul 13 | Rothschild & Co Redburn | $155 | +26.9% |
| Jul 2 | Raymond James | — | — |
| Jul 2 | D.A. Davidson | $150 | +22.8% |
+0.9%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+1.1%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.4%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
MSC Industrial Direct seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 26, MSC Industrial Direct averaged +1.1% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +1.5% | 5 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +0.5% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +2.8% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +1.1% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +4.7% | 4 of 5 |
For scale, MSM’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 4.3%.
MSC Industrial Direct market cap and key statistics
MSC Industrial Direct’s market cap is $6.82B, with a P/E ratio of 29.3 and revenue of $3.91B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $6.82B
- P/E ratio
- 29.3
- Forward P/E
- 23.5
- EPS, TTM
- $4.14
- Gekko Fair Value
- $106.83
Trading
- Volume
- 520,300
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 698,034
- 52-week high
- $130.46
- 52-week low
- $78.80
- Shares outstanding
- 55.85M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $3.91B
- Profit margin
- 5.9%
- Return on equity
- 16.3%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +41.1%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.82
- Typical daily move
- ±2.4%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4.3%
- Dividend yield
- 2.88%
MSC Industrial Direct stock news this week
1 headline about MSC Industrial Direct from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.
MSC Industrial Direct peers
MSC Industrial Direct’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| GWWW.W. Grainger | Accumulation | 17.8% above |
| FASTFastenal | Neutral | 27.8% above |
| FERGFerguson Enterprises | Neutral | 2.6% below |
| WCCWESCO International | Neutral | 18.9% above |
| GPCGenuine Parts | Accumulation | 4.8% above |
| QXOQXO | Accumulation | 54.3% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
MSC Industrial Direct stock FAQ
What is MSC Industrial Direct’s market cap?
MSC Industrial Direct’s market cap is $6.82B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $122.14, with 55.85M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 29.3.
What is the MSC Industrial Direct stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for MSC Industrial Direct is $131.00, +7.3% from the last close. Of the 6 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 3 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is MSC Industrial Direct stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate MSC Industrial Direct is overvalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $122.14 is 14.3% above Gekko Fair Value of $106.83. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does MSC Industrial Direct report earnings next?
MSC Industrial Direct is expected to report on Oct 22, 2026, before the market opens (23 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.40 per share on revenue of $1.07B. MSC Industrial Direct beat the earnings estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, moving 2.9% on average across the report.
What is MSC Industrial Direct’s 52-week high and low?
MSC Industrial Direct’s 52-week high is $130.46 and its 52-week low is $78.80; it closed at $122.14 on Sep 28, 2026, +36.9% over the past year.
Is MSC Industrial Direct stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (trend, smart money and seasonality), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 2 as headwinds (fair value and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
Is there unusual options activity in MSC Industrial Direct?
Gekko flagged 1 unusual options signal in MSC Industrial Direct over the last 30 days, with $419K of flagged premium in calls and $0 in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Sep 24, 2026 with $419K in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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