Oct 12 close
This week's news centers on insider buying at Mach Natural Resources. CEO Tom Ward acquired 172,000 common units for approximately $2.0 million through a trust, lifting his beneficial ownership to 17%, while Chairman William Wallace McMullen purchased 34,514 shares for approximately $389,000. Both purchases follow a period of stock decline and come as the company continues to emphasize its strategic pillars, including disciplined acquisitions and unitholder distributions.
MNR closed at $10.89, up 1.5%, but remains below both its 50-day average of $11.93 and 200-day average of $12.68, with the 50-day below the 200-day. The stock sits 13.4% lower over the past month and 15.4% lower over the past year, trading closer to its 52-week low of $10.15 than its high of $15.02. The GekkoIndex reads 61.7, placing MNR in the Accumulation zone, down 4 points over five periods. Gekko Fair Value stands at $19.07, putting the current price 42.9% below that level.
MNR next reports earnings on 5 November 2026, 24 days away and within a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior release on 6 August showed EPS of $0.38 against an estimate of $0.34, with a -2% reaction, and the company has beaten estimates in 5 of its last 8 quarters. Smart money activity over the past 90 days shows 3 open-market insider purchases totaling $2,388,893. Analyst coverage from 6 firms shows 5 buy ratings and 1 hold, with a consensus target of $16.62, implying 52.6% upside from current levels.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Mach Natural Resources scores 3 supportive, 0 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive0 mixed2 headwinds
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $10.89 is below the 50-day ($11.93) and 200-day ($12.68) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart61.7, Accumulation
Reading 61.7 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex42.9% below
Price is 42.9% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair valueLeans bullish
Last 90 days: 3 open-market insider purchases.
See smart moneyReports in 24 days
Reports on Nov 5, 2026, 24 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earningsNo data
Not enough years of history for a seasonal read.
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Mach Natural Resources closed at $10.89 on Oct 12, 2026, −15.4% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $10.15 to $15.02.
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Put MNR on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.
Mach Natural Resources focuses on finding, developing, and producing crude oil, natural gas, and related liquid products. Its work centers on the Anadarko Basin, covering parts of Western Oklahoma, Southern Kansas, and the Texas Panhandle, where it carries out acquisition and production activities tied to these resources.
The company operates independently, building its business around the full cycle of energy production, from acquiring assets to bringing oil and gas output to market within its core basin territory.
Mach Natural Resources was established in 2023 and runs its main office out of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Its shares trade on the NYSE under the ticker MNR.
Mach Natural Resources’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 61.7, in the Accumulation zone, down 4 points over five sessions.
Down 4 points over five sessions.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 59 | +0.3% | +2.0% |
| Accumulation (current zone) | 275 | −0.2% | −0.7% |
| Neutral | 307 | −0.3% | −2.0% |
| Distribution | 26 | −1.7% | −4.0% |
| Selling | 15 | −0.8% | +2.7% |
Average MNR share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
Mach Natural Resources trades 42.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $19.07, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Mach Natural Resources shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$19.07
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
42.9% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 21.6% below the estimate.
Insiders filed 3 open-market purchases in Mach Natural Resources worth $2.39M, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
$2.39Min 3 open-market purchases
| Filed | Insider | Type | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17 | McMullen William Wallace director, 10 percent owner, other: See Remarks | Purchase | $249K |
| Sep 17 | McMullen William Wallace director, 10 percent owner, other: See Remarks | Purchase | $140K |
| Sep 16 | WARD TOM L. director, 10 percent owner, officer, other: See Remarks | Purchase | $2.00M |
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
No trades in MNR were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Mach Natural Resources has been buying back its own shares.
From company filings.
Mach Natural Resources reports on Nov 5, 2026 (24 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.
Nov 5, 2026
24 days away
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | $0.38 est $0.34 | $406.0M est $377.9M | −2.0% |
| May 7, 2026 | −$0.21 est $0.47 | $286.0M est $397.6M | +2.7% |
| Mar 12, 2026 | $0.50 est $0.27 | $361.6M est $357.7M | +2.2% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $0.44 est $0.34 | $272.6M est $357.3M | −3.3% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | $0.76 est $0.53 | $288.5M est $243.7M | −1.8% |
| Mar 13, 2025 | $0.34 est $0.44 | $268.6M est $240.5M | +0.6% |
| Nov 12, 2024 | $0.70 est $0.56 | — | −0.9% |
| Aug 13, 2024 | $0.42 est $0.62 | $244.6M est $252.2M | +5.6% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Mach Natural Resources is $16.62, +52.6% from the last close, from 6 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 6 firms.
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29 | Raymond James | $16 | +46.9% |
| Sep 23 | William Blair | — | — |
| Sep 9 | Stifel Nicolaus | $15 | +37.7% |
| Sep 9 | Stifel Nicolaus | $15 | +37.7% |
| Sep 4 | Capital One Financial | $16 | +46.9% |
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Mach Natural Resources’s market cap is $1.82B, with a P/E ratio of 17.8 and revenue of $1.30B over the last twelve months.
2 headlines about Mach Natural Resources from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.
Mach Natural Resources’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| XOMExxon Mobil | Neutral | 17.0% above |
| CVXChevron | Neutral | 8.4% above |
| TTETotalEnergies | Neutral | 29.7% below |
| CNQCanadian Natural Resources | Neutral | 19.7% below |
| SUSuncor Energy | Neutral | 17.4% below |
| EOGEOG Resources | Neutral | 22.1% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Mach Natural Resources’s market cap is $1.82B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $10.89, with 166.9M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 17.8.
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Mach Natural Resources is $16.62, +52.6% from the last close. Of the 6 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 5 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
On Gekko’s estimate Mach Natural Resources is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $10.89 is 42.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $19.07. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
Mach Natural Resources is expected to report on Nov 5, 2026 (24 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.28 per share on revenue of $347.3M. Mach Natural Resources beat the earnings estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, moving 2.4% on average across the report.
Mach Natural Resources’s 52-week high is $15.02 and its 52-week low is $10.15; it closed at $10.89 on Oct 12, 2026, −15.4% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $21.19 on Apr 30, 2024.
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and smart money) and 2 as headwinds (trend and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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