NASDAQ: MBIN

Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Oct 12 close

$49.01+0.09 (+0.2%)
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Gekko Brief

AI summaryOct 12 close

This week's news for Merchants Bancorp centers on analyst commentary rather than company-specific operating news. Piper Sandler cut its price target on MBIN to $63.00 from $64.00 while maintaining an "overweight" rating, citing a 26.13% upside, even as the broader consensus holds a "Hold" rating with an average target of $55.25. A separate comparison piece weighed MBIN against WesBanco (WSBC) across institutional ownership, earnings, valuation, dividends, profitability and risk, without a stated directional sentiment.

MBIN closed at $49.01, up 0.2%, sitting between its 50-day average of $52.61 and its 200-day average of $46.57, a mixed trend signal. The GekkoIndex reads 66.2, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone. Current price sits 14.4% below the Gekko Fair Value of $57.24. One-month return stands at -7.8%, while three-month and six-month returns are 0.9% and 2.6% respectively, and the one-year return is 52.6%.

Earnings are scheduled for 27 October 2026, 15 days away, falling inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior quarter saw EPS of $1.28 against an estimate of $0.94, with a 1.4% reaction, and the company has beaten estimates in 4 of 8 quarters. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the respective 90-day and 30-day windows. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 6.2% return over 5 years, rising in 4 of them, a pattern worth noting alongside the approaching earnings date.

Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

Merchants Bancorp price vs fair value

$57.24$49.01Oct ’25Apr ’26Oct ’26
Close $49.01200-day averageGekko Fair Value $57.24

Merchants Bancorp quick facts

Market cap
$2.25B
P/E ratio
9.9
Forward P/E
—
EPS, TTM
$4.98
Revenue, TTM
$632.3M
Profit margin
42.5%
Dividend yield
0.84%
Beta
1.21
Volume
136,434 avg 211,927
1-year return
+52.6%
Typical daily move
±3%
Typical 20-day move
±6.8%
50-day average
$52.61
200-day average
$46.57
Next earnings
Oct 27
Shares outstanding
45.94M
52-week range
$30.37$56.87

Merchants Bancorp swing-trade checklist

Merchants Bancorp scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $49.01 sits between the 50-day ($52.61) and 200-day ($46.57) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    66.2, Accumulation

    Reading 66.2 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    14.4% below

    Price is 14.4% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 15 days

    Reports on Oct 27, 2026, 15 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +6.2% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +6.2% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Merchants Bancorp stock chart and price history

Merchants Bancorp closed at $49.01 on Oct 12, 2026, +52.6% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $30.37 to $56.87.

5Y and weekly in Gekko
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Merchants Bancorp share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$30$35$40$45$55NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct49.01

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−7.8%
3 months
+0.9%
6 months
+2.6%
1 year
+52.6%
The full MBIN chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open MBIN in Gekko

Follow Merchants Bancorp through every session

Put MBIN on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About Merchants Bancorp

Merchants Bancorp is a holding company providing financial services to consumers and businesses throughout the United States. It is perhaps most recognized for its work in multi-family and healthcare-related mortgage banking, where it originates and services government-backed loans for apartment buildings, senior living communities, memory care facilities and skilled nursing operations, while also arranging low-income housing tax credit syndications.

The company runs three main business lines. Its mortgage warehousing arm funds agency-eligible residential loans through their origination, purchase and resale, and extends credit to non-depository lenders. Its banking division serves both individuals and companies, offering deposit products alongside loans for multi-family construction and bridging, commercial real estate, commercial and industrial needs, agriculture, residential mortgages and consumer borrowing, plus single-family mortgage and construction financing, home equity lines of credit, and SBA-backed lending.

Merchants Bancorp was established in 1990 and is headquartered in Carmel, Indiana. Its shares trade on the NASDAQ under the ticker MBIN.

Listed
NASDAQ
Sector
Finance
Industry
Regional banks
Website
bankmerchants.com

Merchants Bancorp GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Merchants Bancorp’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 66.2, in the Accumulation zone, down 0.2 points over five sessions.

010066.2Accumulation

Down 0.2 points over five sessions.

Reading for Oct 12, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying25+3.6%+4.6%+3.7%+0.5%
Accumulation (current zone)232+1.1%+1.9%+4.9%+4.8%
Neutral353−0.2%+0.5%+0.1%+1.5%
Distribution62−1.5%−4.2%−6.4%+3.6%
Selling100.0%−7.1%−8.1%−6.5%

Average MBIN share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the MBIN price, zone by zone.Track MBIN in Gekko

Is Merchants Bancorp stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Merchants Bancorp trades 14.4% below Gekko Fair Value of $57.24, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Merchants Bancorp shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$57.24

Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026

14.4% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 3.9% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$57$49Aug 2026SepOct 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open MBIN in Gekko

Merchants Bancorp insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Merchants Bancorp, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for MBIN in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every MBIN insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MBIN in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in MBIN were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for MBIN, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MBIN in Gekko

Buybacks

Merchants Bancorp has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Mar 31, 2026
$3.00M
As a share of market cap
0.13%

From company filings.

Merchants Bancorp earnings: next date and track record

Merchants Bancorp reports on Oct 27, 2026 (15 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.

4 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±7.3%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+3.3%Apr ’24−15.8%Jul ’24−16.1%Oct ’24+4.6%Jan ’25−5.4%Apr ’25−9.9%Jul ’25−1.5%Oct ’25+1.4%Feb ’26
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Feb 2, 2026$1.28
est $0.94		+36.2%——+1.4%
Oct 27, 2025$0.97
est $0.89		+9.0%$169.8M
est $175.0M		−3.0%−1.5%
Jul 28, 2025$0.60
est $1.12		−46.4%$178.1M
est $164.8M		+8.1%−9.9%
Apr 28, 2025$0.93
est $1.25		−25.6%$145.1M
est $175.8M		−17.5%−5.4%
Jan 28, 2025$1.85
est $1.30		+42.3%$193.1M
est $158.8M		+21.6%+4.6%
Oct 28, 2024$1.17
est $1.42		−17.6%$148.4M
est $159.7M		−7.0%−16.1%
Jul 29, 2024$1.49
est $1.57		−5.1%$158.5M
est $160.7M		−1.4%−15.8%
Apr 29, 2024$1.80
est $1.37		+31.4%$167.0M
est $144.2M		+15.8%+3.3%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Merchants Bancorp stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Merchants Bancorp is $64.00, +30.6% from the last close, from 2 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$64.00consensus 12-month target, +30.6% from the last close
Low $63High $65
Buy1
Hold1
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 2 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Oct 5Piper SandlerBuy, maintained$63+28.5%
Sep 28Morgan StanleyHold, reiterated$65+32.6%
Sep 8Morgan StanleyHold, reiterated$65+32.6%
Sep 2Piper SandlerBuy, reiterated$64+30.6%
Jul 29Morgan StanleyHold, maintained$490.0%
+4.9%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+6.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Merchants Bancorp seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Merchants Bancorp averaged +6.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+15.1%2021+5.1%2022+14.8%2023−9.0%2024+1.0%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+1.4%4 of 5
Next 10 trading days+1.9%4 of 5
Next 15 trading days+0.6%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days+6.2%4 of 5
Next 30 trading days+6.4%4 of 5

For scale, MBIN’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 6.8%.

Merchants Bancorp market cap and key statistics

Merchants Bancorp’s market cap is $2.25B, with a P/E ratio of 9.9 and revenue of $632.3M over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$2.25B
P/E ratio
9.9
EPS, TTM
$4.98
Gekko Fair Value
$57.24

Trading

Volume
136,434
Avg volume, 20 days
211,927
52-week high
$56.87
52-week low
$30.37
Shares outstanding
45.94M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$632.3M
Profit margin
42.5%
Return on equity
11.7%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+146.7%

Risk and income

Beta
1.21
Typical daily move
±3%
Typical 20-day move
±6.8%
Dividend yield
0.84%

Merchants Bancorp stock news this week

2 headlines about Merchants Bancorp from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.

Merchants Bancorp peers

Merchants Bancorp’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
CMCanadian Imperial Bank of Commerce+0.4%Accumulation5.7% below
USBU.S. Bancorp+0.4%Accumulation11.0% below
NUNu−0.6%Neutral0.7% below
TFCTruist Financial+0.9%Accumulation9.6% below
FITBFifth Third Bancorp+0.1%Accumulation11.2% below
MTBM&T Bank+0.9%Accumulation9.1% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

VZTMUSTBMYINGBCS

Reporting earnings this week

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Popular on Gekko

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Merchants Bancorp stock FAQ

What is Merchants Bancorp’s market cap?

Merchants Bancorp’s market cap is $2.25B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $49.01, with 45.94M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 9.9.

What is the Merchants Bancorp stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Merchants Bancorp is $64.00, +30.6% from the last close. Of the 2 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 1 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Merchants Bancorp stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Merchants Bancorp is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $49.01 is 14.4% below Gekko Fair Value of $57.24. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Merchants Bancorp report earnings next?

Merchants Bancorp is expected to report on Oct 27, 2026 (15 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.39 per share on revenue of $183.0M. Merchants Bancorp beat the earnings estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports, moving 7.3% on average across the report.

What is Merchants Bancorp’s 52-week high and low?

Merchants Bancorp’s 52-week high is $56.87 and its 52-week low is $30.37; it closed at $49.01 on Oct 12, 2026, +52.6% over the past year.

Is Merchants Bancorp stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

Built and overseen by Jared Mann

Founder of Gekko.app. Jared has traded stocks and ETFs for more than 20 years and has a financial industry background.

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