NYSE: KEY

KeyCorp (KEY) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$20.40−0.21 (−1.0%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

KeyCorp's shares have moved this week on a mix of company updates and analyst commentary. An investor presentation on 25 September outlined 1H26 results, including an 8% YoY revenue increase and a 10% YoY NII increase, alongside a plan to repurchase at least $1.3 billion in shares in 2026 under a Board authorization of up to $3.0 billion. Jefferies cut its price target on KEY to $22.00 on 24 September while maintaining a Hold rating, and the stock also moved after KeyCorp raised its prime lending rate to 7.00% from 6.75%, effective 17 September.

KEY closed at $20.40, down 1% on the day, with a 1-month return of -7.4% and a 3-month return of -11.9%, though the 6-month return stands at 4.9%. The close sits between the 50-day average of $22.05 and the 200-day average of $21.62, and below the 52-week high of $24.07. The GekkoIndex reads 67.8, placing KEY in the Accumulation zone, and the current price sits 13.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $23.60.

KeyCorp's next earnings date falls on 20 October, 21 days away and before the open, placing the report inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior quarter saw EPS of $0.44 against a $0.42 estimate with a -0.9% reaction. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the current windows. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 2.6% return over 5 years, rising in 3 of them. Consensus among 15 firms includes 9 Buy and 6 Hold ratings, with a consensus target of $25.82.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

KeyCorp price vs fair value

$23.60$20.40Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $20.40200-day averageGekko Fair Value $23.60

KeyCorp quick facts

Market cap
$22.02B
P/E ratio
11.8
Forward P/E
9.9
EPS, TTM
$1.71
Revenue, TTM
$7.37B
Profit margin
27.5%
Dividend yield
4.05%
Beta
1.02
Volume
18.48M avg 14.97M
1-year return
+8.5%
Typical daily move
±2.1%
Typical 20-day move
±6.2%
50-day average
$22.05
200-day average
$21.62
Next earnings
Oct 20 before open
Shares outstanding
1.07B
52-week range
$16.47$24.07

KeyCorp swing-trade checklist

KeyCorp scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $20.40 sits between the 50-day ($22.05) and 200-day ($21.62) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    67.8, Accumulation

    Reading 67.8 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    13.6% below

    Price is 13.6% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 21 days

    Reports on Oct 20, 2026, 21 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +2.6% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +2.6% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

KeyCorp stock chart and price history

KeyCorp closed at $20.40 on Sep 28, 2026, +8.5% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $16.47 to $24.07.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
KeyCorp share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$18$22$24NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep20.40

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−7.4%
3 months
−11.9%
6 months
+4.9%
1 year
+8.5%
The full KEY chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open KEY in Gekko

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About KeyCorp

KeyCorp is the holding company standing behind KeyBank National Association, which handles banking needs for households and companies located throughout the United States. Consumers and small firms turn to it for checking and savings products, home loans, credit cards, and guidance on personal finances, and it has built a name around this broad, everyday banking relationship.

Internally, the business splits into a Consumer Bank and a Commercial Bank. The consumer side handles deposits, student loan refinancing, mortgages, wealth management, and trust work for individuals and smaller enterprises, while the commercial side supports mid-sized companies with syndicated loans, capital markets deals, equipment leasing, commercial real estate financing, currency and derivatives trading, and public finance work. Its lending to businesses reaches into energy, healthcare, industrial, real estate, technology, and public sector borrowers, and the company also takes part in underwriting, brokerage, community development lending, and investment banking. People bank with it in person, online, by phone, or through mobile apps.

KeyCorp traces its founding back to 1849 and runs its main offices out of Cleveland, Ohio, with stock trading on the NYSE under the ticker KEY.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Finance
Industry
Major banks
Website
key.com

KeyCorp GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

KeyCorp’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 67.8, in the Accumulation zone, down 1.7 points over five sessions.

010067.8Accumulation

Down 1.7 points over five sessions.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying36+1.2%+2.6%+4.5%+9.5%
Accumulation (current zone)185+0.6%+1.2%+3.7%+7.1%
Neutral403+0.3%+0.5%+0.8%+2.8%
Distribution47−0.3%−0.3%−1.7%+0.8%
Selling1Too few readings yet

Average KEY share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the KEY price, zone by zone.Track KEY in Gekko

Is KeyCorp stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

KeyCorp trades 13.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $23.60, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what KeyCorp shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$23.60

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026

13.6% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open KEY in Gekko

KeyCorp insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for KeyCorp, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for KEY in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every KEY insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open KEY in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in KEY were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for KEY, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open KEY in Gekko

Buybacks

KeyCorp has been buying back its own shares.

Latest authorization
$3.00B, Sep 25, 2026
Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$339.0M
As a share of market cap
1.54%

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Dec 31

0of the funds Gekko tracks hold KEY.

0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

KeyCorp earnings: next date and track record

KeyCorp reports on Oct 20, 2026, before the open (21 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports.

8 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±2.6%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−2.0%Oct ’24−5.5%Jan ’25−2.0%Apr ’25+2.8%Jul ’25−4.3%Oct ’25+2.5%Jan ’26+1.1%Apr ’26−0.9%Jul ’26

Last earnings call, Jul 21, 2026 AI summary

What they said
KeyCorp reported solid second-quarter results with EPS of $0.44, up 26% year-over-year, revenue growth of 7% YoY, and pre-provision net revenue up 9%. Net interest margin (NIM) expanded sequentially to 2.89% and management reiterated a path to at least 3% NIM by year-end and confidence in reaching or exceeding that target. Commercial loan growth was strong (period-end C&I loans up $2.1 billion sequentially), deposits were stable with deposit costs down 2 basis points, and asset quality remained broadly stable despite a modest uptick in nonperforming loans driven by idiosyncratic situations. Loan loss provision was $92 million, including $115 million of net charge-offs and a $23 million reserve release. Tangible book value per share rose 6% YoY. Management emphasized disciplined capital deployment: over $340 million of buybacks in the quarter and on pace for at least $1.3 billion for the year. They reiterated medium and long-term return targets (ROTE >15% by end of 2027 and long-term 16%-19%) and described investments in the franchise (including ~$1 billion planned tech & ops spend this year).
Guidance
Management reiterated targets and forward-looking metrics: return on tangible common equity exceeding 15% by 12/31/2027 and a long-term target of 16%-19%; NIM target of at least 3% by year-end with a path to 3%+ and earlier references to 3.25%+ as a medium-term target; full-year net charge-off guidance of 40-45 basis points; expected deposit growth of ~2% (~$3 billion) in the second half of the year; expected roughly $9 billion of fixed-rate asset repricing in the back half of the year (~1.25% pickup) and about $30 billion of repricing through 12/31/2027; on-track share repurchase target of at least $1.3 billion for the year (run-rate ~ $300M/quarter in back half).
Risks flagged
Risks discussed included timing mismatches between loan growth and deposit funding that pressured NIM in the quarter, competitive pressure on deposit pricing in certain markets, macro and geopolitical uncertainty (management overlaid a qualitative reserve build despite quantitative indicators supporting a larger release), modest uptick in criticized loans and NPLs driven by idiosyncratic exposures (multifamily, consumer, agriculture), reliance on recovery of private equity–driven M&A activity to lift investment banking fees, and potential second‑order risks from AI-driven industry shifts (e.g., software, professional services) and concentration in certain industry verticals.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Jul 21, 2026$0.44
est $0.42
+4.8%$1.96B
est $1.97B
−0.3%−0.9%
Apr 16, 2026$0.44
est $0.41
+7.3%$1.95B
est $1.94B
+0.8%+1.1%
Jan 20, 2026$0.41
est $0.39
+5.9%$2.01B
est $1.96B
+2.2%+2.5%
Oct 16, 2025$0.41
est $0.38
+7.9%$2.13B
est $1.94B
+10.1%−4.3%
Jul 22, 2025$0.35
est $0.35
+1.2%$1.83B
est $1.80B
+1.6%+2.8%
Apr 17, 2025$0.33
est $0.32
+3.8%$1.72B
est $1.75B
−1.3%−2.0%
Jan 21, 2025$0.38
est $0.32
+18.8%$1.87B
est $1.74B
+7.7%−5.5%
Oct 17, 2024$0.30
est $0.28
+7.3%$1.87B
est $1.61B
+16.0%−2.0%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

KeyCorp stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for KeyCorp is $25.82, +26.6% from the last close, from 15 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$25.82consensus 12-month target, +26.6% from the last close
Low $22High $28
Buy9
Hold6
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 15 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 23Truist FinancialHold, maintained$23+12.7%
Sep 22CitiHold, maintained$22+7.8%
Sep 15BarclaysHold, maintained$24+17.6%
Sep 14Goldman SachsBuy, maintained$27+32.4%
Sep 8Morgan StanleyHold, maintained$25+22.5%
+3.7%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+2.6%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.1%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

KeyCorp seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 26, KeyCorp averaged +2.6% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+10.3%2021+10.1%2022−5.9%2023+4.1%2024−5.7%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days−0.2%2 of 5
Next 10 trading days−0.4%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days+2.9%4 of 5
Next 20 trading days+2.6%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days+9.7%4 of 5

For scale, KEY’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 6.2%.

KeyCorp market cap and key statistics

KeyCorp’s market cap is $22.02B, with a P/E ratio of 11.8 and revenue of $7.37B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$22.02B
P/E ratio
11.8
Forward P/E
9.9
EPS, TTM
$1.71
Gekko Fair Value
$23.60

Trading

Volume
18.48M
Avg volume, 20 days
14.97M
52-week high
$24.07
52-week low
$16.47
Shares outstanding
1.07B

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$7.37B
Profit margin
27.5%
Return on equity
10.3%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+25.3%

Risk and income

Beta
1.02
Typical daily move
±2.1%
Typical 20-day move
±6.2%
Dividend yield
4.05%

KeyCorp stock news this week

Coverage of KeyCorp this week reads positive: 8 positive, 7 neutral and 3 negative headlines.

News sentiment positive

KeyCorp peers

KeyCorp’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
JPMJP Morgan Chase−1.5%Accumulation6.9% below
BACBank of America−1.7%Buying13.8% below
RYRoyal Bank Of Canada−0.3%Accumulation3.6% below
WFCWells Fargo−2.3%Accumulation12.4% below
CCitigroup−1.7%Neutral7.8% below
TDToronto Dominion Bank−0.8%Accumulation0.8% above

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

KeyCorp stock FAQ

What is KeyCorp’s market cap?

KeyCorp’s market cap is $22.02B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $20.40, with 1.07B shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 11.8.

What is the KeyCorp stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for KeyCorp is $25.82, +26.6% from the last close. Of the 15 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 9 rate it a buy, 6 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is KeyCorp stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate KeyCorp is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $20.40 is 13.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $23.60. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does KeyCorp report earnings next?

KeyCorp is expected to report on Oct 20, 2026, before the market opens (21 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.46 per share on revenue of $2.04B. KeyCorp beat the earnings estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports, moving 2.6% on average across the report.

What is KeyCorp’s 52-week high and low?

KeyCorp’s 52-week high is $24.07 and its 52-week low is $16.47; it closed at $20.40 on Sep 28, 2026, +8.5% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $27.17 on Jan 18, 2022.

Is KeyCorp stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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