Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for SPSC in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every SPSC insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open SPSC in Gekko
NASDAQ: SPSC
SPS Commerce (SPSC) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$84.60+0.01 (0.0%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeThis week's move centers on analyst sentiment rather than company-specific news: Argus lowered its target price for SPS Commerce to $89.00, with the stock trading at $84.59 at the time. The firm continues to describe SPS Commerce as a provider of cloud-based supply chain management services. No earnings, deals, or regulatory items were reported in the period.
SPS Commerce closed at $84.60, above both its 50-day average of $80.32 and 200-day average of $68.40, with the 50-day sitting above the 200-day. The GekkoIndex reads 50.7, placing it in the Neutral zone, down 5.6 points over the last five readings. Price sits 20.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $107.02. Over the past year the stock is down 21.5%, though the one-month return is 2.3% and the three-month return is 33.6%.
The next earnings report is scheduled for 29 October 2026, after close, 17 days away and within a typical 20-trading-day holding window. The company has beaten estimates in 8 of its last 8 quarters, with an average absolute reaction of 7.2% historically. Seasonality over the next 20 trading days has averaged -8.7% across 5 years, with 0 of those years positive. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the current windows, and one trailblazer holder is noted. Consensus among 9 covering firms splits 2 buy, 6 hold, 1 sell, with a consensus target of $75.45.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
SPS Commerce price vs fair value
Close $84.60200-day averageGekko Fair Value $107.02
SPS Commerce quick facts
- Market cap
- $3.05B
- P/E ratio
- 40.3
- Forward P/E
- 68
- EPS, TTM
- $2.07
- Revenue, TTM
- $772.5M
- Profit margin
- 10.1%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 0.62
- Volume
- 367,200 avg 472,604
- 1-year return
- −21.5%
- Typical daily move
- ±2.9%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.8%
- 50-day average
- $80.32
- 200-day average
- $68.40
- Next earnings
- Oct 29 after close
- Shares outstanding
- 36.00M
SPS Commerce swing-trade checklist
SPS Commerce scores 2 supportive, 1 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
2 supportive1 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendsupportive
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $84.60 is above the 50-day ($80.32) and 200-day ($68.40) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
50.7, Neutral
Reading 50.7 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
20.9% below
Price is 20.9% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 17 days
Reports on Oct 29, 2026, 17 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalityheadwind
−8.7% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −8.7% over 5 years, rising in 0 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
SPS Commerce stock chart and price history
SPS Commerce closed at $84.60 on Oct 12, 2026, −21.5% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $49.04 to $114.87.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +2.3%
- 3 months
- +33.6%
- 6 months
- +59.5%
- 1 year
- −21.5%
The full SPSC chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open SPSC in Gekko
Follow SPS Commerce through every session
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About SPS Commerce
SPS Commerce provides cloud-based tools that help businesses manage and coordinate their supply chains. Its main product, the SPS Commerce platform, is built for retailers, suppliers, grocers, distributors, and logistics companies, giving them a way to handle orders across multiple sales channels, move goods through to sale more efficiently, and set up new trading relationships without manual setup work.
The company organizes its offerings into a few core areas. Its Fulfillment solution automates order handling, working alongside or in place of a client's own staff and communication systems, while also helping them meet individual retailer requirements and exchange data with trading partners through different formats. Its Analytics solution gives clients tools to examine and understand supply chain data in more depth. SPS Commerce also provides an assortment tool to support precise order fulfillment and a community product aimed at bringing new vendors onboard quickly and keeping partners aligned with changing supply chain rules.
The business traces back to 1987, when it was incorporated as St. Paul Software, Inc., later taking the name SPS Commerce, Inc. in May 2001. It is based in Minneapolis, Minnesota, and its shares are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker SPSC.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Technology services
- Industry
- Packaged software
- Website
- spscommerce.com
SPS Commerce GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
SPS Commerce’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 50.7, in the Neutral zone, down 5.6 points over five sessions.
50.7Neutral
Down 5.6 points over five sessions.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 79 | −0.7% | +0.8% | ||
| Accumulation | 244 | +0.4% | −0.3% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 339 | −0.9% | −3.5% | ||
| Distribution | 15 | −1.5% | +2.7% | ||
| Selling | 5 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average SPSC share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the SPSC price, zone by zone.Track SPSC in Gekko
Is SPS Commerce stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
SPS Commerce trades 20.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $107.02, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what SPS Commerce shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$107.02
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
20.9% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 23.7% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open SPSC in Gekko
SPS Commerce insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for SPS Commerce, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in SPSC were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for SPSC, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open SPSC in Gekko
Buybacks
SPS Commerce has been buying back its own shares.
- Latest authorization
- $200.0M, Feb 12, 2026
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $51.23M
- As a share of market cap
- 1.68%
- Trailing four quarters
- $153.1M
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
1of the funds Gekko tracks holds SPSC.
0added1opened0trimmed0sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
SPS Commerce earnings: next date and track record
SPS Commerce reports on Oct 29, 2026, after the close (17 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 29, 2026
Expected after the close, 17 days away
- EPS estimate
- $1.23
- Revenue estimate
- $197.5M
8 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±7.2%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Feb 12, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- SPS Commerce reported solid Q4 and full-year 2025 results, marking the companys 100th consecutive quarter of revenue growth. Full-year revenue was $751.5M, up 18% year-over-year, with recurring revenue up 20%; Q4 revenue was $192.7M, up 13% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded, driven by gross-margin improvements and operating efficiencies, with adjusted EBITDA up 24% for the year. Management highlighted strategic moves including the acquisitions (Carbon6, SupplyPike), the launch of AI-enabled MACS agentic features integrated into their network, and a strengthened capital return program (share repurchase authorization increased to $300M). The company acknowledged headwinds during 2025, including macroeconomic and tariff-related uncertainty, invoice scrutiny, and Amazon policy changes that affected revenue recovery take-rates and 3P customer churn. Management provided color on go-to-market priorities (retail enablement/relationship management programs, cross-sell to increase ARPU), continued investment in revenue recovery focused on 1P sellers, and product/network-led AI monetization opportunities. They also announced CFO succession and two new independent board directors.
- Guidance
- Q1 2026: revenue $191.6M to $193.6M (~6% YoY growth at midpoint); adjusted EBITDA $55.5M to $57.5M; GAAP diluted EPS $0.46 to $0.49 (38.2M shares); non-GAAP diluted income per share $0.95 to $0.99. Full-year 2026: revenue $798.5M to $806.9M (~7% YoY growth at midpoint); adjusted EBITDA $261.0M to $265.5M (~13%-15% growth YoY); GAAP diluted EPS $2.50 to $2.58 (38.4M shares); non-GAAP diluted income per share $4.42 to $4.50. Other items: stock-based comp, depreciation, amortization, and ~30% quarterly effective tax rate on GAAP pretax net earnings.
- Risks flagged
- Macroeconomic and tariff-related uncertainty leading to customer spend scrutiny and delayed purchasing; invoice scrutiny and retailer policy changes (notably Amazon policy changes) impacting revenue recovery take-rates and 3P seller economics; higher churn in smaller 3P customers; timing risk on retail relationship/enablement programs affecting customer adds and billing; integration and go-to-market execution risk related to revenue recovery acquisitions; competitive/partner dynamics around AI/agent access and data monetization.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2026 | $1.14 est $1.01 | $192.7M est $193.6M | −9.7% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | $1.13 est $1.00 | $189.9M est $193.6M | −21.8% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | $1.00 est $0.91 | — | +0.2% |
| Apr 23, 2025 | $1.00 est $0.85 | $181.5M est $179.0M | +7.2% |
| Feb 6, 2025 | $0.89 est $0.87 | — | −2.1% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | $0.92 est $0.83 | $163.7M est $169.3M | −10.2% |
| Jul 25, 2024 | $0.80 est $0.77 | $153.6M est $151.9M | +1.8% |
| Apr 25, 2024 | $0.86 est $0.74 | $149.6M est $146.6M | +4.6% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
SPS Commerce stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for SPS Commerce is $75.45, −10.8% from the last close, from 9 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$75.45consensus 12-month target, −10.8% from the last close
Now $84.60Avg $75.45
Low $59High $100
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 9 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11 | William Blair | — | — |
| Sep 11 | Citi | $82 | −3.1% |
| Aug 27 | Stifel Nicolaus | $70 | −17.3% |
| Aug 19 | Needham | $100 | +18.2% |
| Jul 31 | Craig-Hallum | $68 | −19.6% |
−3.5%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
−8.7%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.9%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
SPS Commerce seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, SPS Commerce averaged −8.7% across the last 5 years, rising in 0 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +0.7% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −0.3% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −10.1% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | −8.7% | 0 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | −7.5% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, SPSC’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5.8%.
SPS Commerce market cap and key statistics
SPS Commerce’s market cap is $3.05B, with a P/E ratio of 40.3 and revenue of $772.5M over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $3.05B
- P/E ratio
- 40.3
- Forward P/E
- 68
- EPS, TTM
- $2.07
- Gekko Fair Value
- $107.02
Trading
- Volume
- 367,200
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 472,604
- 52-week high
- $114.87
- 52-week low
- $49.04
- Shares outstanding
- 36.00M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $772.5M
- Profit margin
- 10.1%
- Return on equity
- 8.3%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −63.9%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.62
- Typical daily move
- ±2.9%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.8%
SPS Commerce stock news this week
1 headline about SPS Commerce from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.
- SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) Stock ForecastsYahoo! Finance Canada, Oct 8
SPS Commerce peers
SPS Commerce’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| MSFTMicrosoft | Neutral | 21.7% above |
| PLTRPalantir Technologies | Distribution | 22.3% above |
| ORCLOracle | Neutral | 24.3% below |
| PANWPalo Alto Networks | Neutral | 21.6% above |
| CRWDCrowdStrike | Neutral | 23.7% above |
| CRMSalesforce | Neutral | 3.6% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
SPS Commerce stock FAQ
What is SPS Commerce’s market cap?
SPS Commerce’s market cap is $3.05B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $84.60, with 36.00M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 40.3.
What is the SPS Commerce stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for SPS Commerce is $75.45, −10.8% from the last close. Of the 9 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 2 rate it a buy, 6 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is SPS Commerce stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate SPS Commerce is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $84.60 is 20.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $107.02. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does SPS Commerce report earnings next?
SPS Commerce is expected to report on Oct 29, 2026, after the market closes (17 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.23 per share on revenue of $197.5M. SPS Commerce beat the earnings estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports, moving 7.2% on average across the report.
What is SPS Commerce’s 52-week high and low?
SPS Commerce’s 52-week high is $114.87 and its 52-week low is $49.04; it closed at $84.60 on Oct 12, 2026, −21.5% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $218.74 on Feb 9, 2024.
Is SPS Commerce stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (trend and fair value), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 2 as headwinds (earnings risk and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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