Insider buying last 90 days
$323Kin 2 open-market purchases
| Filed | Insider | Type | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11 | Ralph Lewis Ropp Director | Purchase | $123K |
| Aug 11 | David M. Khani Director | Purchase | $200K |
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
NYSE: MGY
Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Sep 28 close
$23.71−0.40 (−1.7%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryMagnolia Oil & Gas draws attention this week after completing its WildFire Energy acquisition, expanding its South Texas position, a move highlighted as a reason the stock has become a focal point among midcap names. Analysts have assigned a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating, with the eighteen firms covering the company noted in recent commentary. Separately, EVP Timothy D. Yang reported a stock award and related tax withholding transactions.
MGY closed at $23.71, down 1.7%, sitting below both its 50-day average of $25.99 and 200-day average of $26.73, with the 50-day below the 200-day. Longer-term returns show declines across the one-month, three-month, six-month and one-year periods. The GekkoIndex reads 67.2, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, while the gap to Gekko Fair Value of $34.25 stands at -30.8%.
Looking ahead, the next earnings date falls on 4 November 2026, 36 days away and outside a typical 20-trading-day holding window. Over the last 90 days, 2 open-market insider purchases have been recorded, valued at $323,125. Seasonality data covering 5 years shows the next 20 trading days from this point averaged a 10.9% return, with gains in 3 of those years. The consensus analyst target sits at $33.18, reflecting a 39.9% upside from current levels, a figure worth noting alongside the wider gap to fair value.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.
Magnolia Oil & Gas price vs fair value
Close $23.71200-day averageGekko Fair Value $34.25
Magnolia Oil & Gas quick facts
- Market cap
- $5.62B
- P/E ratio
- 10.5
- Forward P/E
- 9.2
- EPS, TTM
- $2.29
- Revenue, TTM
- $1.48B
- Profit margin
- 28.8%
- Dividend yield
- 2.67%
- Beta
- 0.70
- Volume
- 4.76M avg 4.28M
- 1-year return
- −4.4%
- Typical daily move
- ±4.1%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.7%
- 50-day average
- $25.99
- 200-day average
- $26.73
- Next earnings
- Nov 4
- Shares outstanding
- 269.2M
Magnolia Oil & Gas swing-trade checklist
Magnolia Oil & Gas scores 5 supportive, 0 mixed and 1 headwind across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
5 supportive0 mixed1 headwind
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $23.71 is below the 50-day ($25.99) and 200-day ($26.73) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
67.2, Accumulation
Reading 67.2 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
30.8% below
Price is 30.8% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 90 days: 2 open-market insider purchases.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 36 days
Next report Nov 4, 2026, 36 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+10.9% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +10.9% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Magnolia Oil & Gas stock chart and price history
Magnolia Oil & Gas closed at $23.71 on Sep 28, 2026, −4.4% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $21.07 to $32.76.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −11.0%
- 3 months
- −7.9%
- 6 months
- −26.7%
- 1 year
- −4.4%
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Magnolia Oil & Gas GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Magnolia Oil & Gas’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 67.2, in the Accumulation zone, down 0.5 points over five sessions.
67.2Accumulation
Down 0.5 points over five sessions.
Reading for Sep 28, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 23 | +2.5% | +5.8% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 205 | +1.4% | +2.9% | ||
| Neutral | 399 | −0.4% | −0.4% | ||
| Distribution | 40 | +1.0% | +4.0% | ||
| Selling | 5 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average MGY share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the MGY price, zone by zone.Track MGY in Gekko
Is Magnolia Oil & Gas stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Magnolia Oil & Gas trades 30.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $34.25, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Magnolia Oil & Gas shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$34.25
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026
30.8% Undervalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open MGY in Gekko
Magnolia Oil & Gas insider and Congress trading
Insiders filed 2 open-market purchases in Magnolia Oil & Gas worth $323K, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in MGY were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for MGY, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MGY in Gekko
Buybacks
Magnolia Oil & Gas has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $49.33M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.88%
- Trailing four quarters
- $206.9M
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Dec 31
0of the funds Gekko tracks hold MGY.
0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Magnolia Oil & Gas earnings: next date and track record
Magnolia Oil & Gas reports on Nov 4, 2026 (36 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 4, 2026
36 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.60
- Revenue estimate
- $411.1M
6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±2.6%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 5, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Magnolia reported a strong second quarter with robust financial and operating performance driven by production growth and higher oil/NGL prices. Key metrics included adjusted net income of ~$184M ($0.99/share), adjusted EBITDAX of $370M, free cash flow of $235M, 51% pretax adjusted operating margins, and drilling & completion capital of $125M (34% reinvestment rate). Management emphasized disciplined capital allocation, returning capital via dividends and share repurchases (1.7M shares in the quarter), and low reinvestment rates. Management discussed the pending Wildfire Energy acquisition, expecting meaningful synergies (including an acquired sand mine), a blended development plan with roughly even Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk activity, and opportunities to pick up additional working interests within the combined footprint. Management plans to resume repurchases (no material nonpublic information remains) and prioritize rapid deleveraging post-close, targeting leverage around or below ~1x by end of next year (potentially sooner). Q&A responses were generally confident and constructive, while management noted the acquisition is not closed and that it will take time to realize the full upside across the large Wildfire footprint.
- Guidance
- - Intention to reduce consolidated leverage to roughly ~1x (or less) by the end of next year, potentially sooner. - Management expects a roughly even blend of Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk development post-acquisition (uplift in Chalk development versus Wildfire's historical activity). - Company to resume share repurchases immediately; will prioritize debt paydown and return capital (dividends/share buybacks) depending on performance. - Production guidance implicitly increased from ~5% to ~6% YoY (per discussion; Giddings drove the increase).
- Risks flagged
- - Acquisition of Wildfire Energy has not closed yet; integration risks and timing uncertainties remain. - Large, 1.25 million net acre combined footprint will require time to evaluate and develop; limited prior testing in some Chalk areas. - Commodity price exposure and leverage dynamics; although management plans deleveraging, future cash flows depend on prices. - Potential competition for nearby working interests/bolt-ons; execution risk capturing synergies and sand mine benefits.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | $0.99 est $0.90 | $478.8M est $458.1M | +0.7% |
| May 6, 2026 | $0.54 est $0.52 | $358.5M est $349.9M | −8.8% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | $0.37 est $0.36 | $317.6M est $313.6M | +2.3% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | $0.41 est $0.41 | $324.9M est $322.2M | −1.5% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | $0.42 est $0.40 | $319.0M est $318.8M | −3.2% |
| Apr 30, 2025 | $0.52 est $0.53 | $350.3M est $342.5M | −1.0% |
| Feb 18, 2025 | $0.48 est $0.45 | $326.6M est $327.4M | +3.1% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | $0.53 est $0.48 | $333.1M est $330.7M | −0.1% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Magnolia Oil & Gas stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Magnolia Oil & Gas is $33.18, +39.9% from the last close, from 15 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$33.18consensus 12-month target, +39.9% from the last close
Now $23.71Avg $33.18
Low $26High $38
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 15 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | Roth MKM | — | — |
| Sep 23 | Siebert Williams Shank & Co | $32 | +35.0% |
| Sep 21 | Truist Financial | $34 | +43.4% |
| Sep 16 | Clear Street | $37 | +56.1% |
| Sep 11 | UBS | $34 | +43.4% |
+2.9%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+10.9%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4.1%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Magnolia Oil & Gas seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 26, Magnolia Oil & Gas averaged +10.9% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +3.9% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +6.5% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +8.1% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +10.9% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +12.2% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, MGY’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5.7%.
Magnolia Oil & Gas market cap and key statistics
Magnolia Oil & Gas’s market cap is $5.62B, with a P/E ratio of 10.5 and revenue of $1.48B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $5.62B
- P/E ratio
- 10.5
- Forward P/E
- 9.2
- EPS, TTM
- $2.29
- Gekko Fair Value
- $34.25
Trading
- Volume
- 4.76M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 4.28M
- 52-week high
- $32.76
- 52-week low
- $21.07
- Shares outstanding
- 269.2M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $1.48B
- Profit margin
- 28.8%
- Return on equity
- 20.8%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +136.6%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.70
- Typical daily move
- ±4.1%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.7%
- Dividend yield
- 2.67%
Magnolia Oil & Gas stock news this week
Coverage of Magnolia Oil & Gas this week reads neutral: 1 positive, 2 neutral and 0 negative headlines.
- Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (NYSE:MGY) Receives Consensus Recommendation of “Moderate Buy” from AnalystsDefense World, Sep 26
- Magnolia Oil & Gas EVP Timothy D. Yang Reports Stock Award and Tax Withholding TransactionsKalkine Media, Sep 26
- Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) legal chief also reports 5,270 shares delivered or withheld for exercise costs or taxes.Stock Titan, Sep 25
- Why Is Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) Suddenly a Must-Watch Midcap Stocks Name?Kalkine Media, Sep 25
Magnolia Oil & Gas peers
Magnolia Oil & Gas’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| COPConocoPhillips | Accumulation | 41.2% below |
| FANGDiamondback Energy | Accumulation | 6.0% above |
| ARAntero Resources | Accumulation | 28.4% below |
| RRCRange Resources | Accumulation | 7.3% below |
| SMSM Energy | Accumulation | 5.2% above |
| MURMurphy Oil | Accumulation | 5.6% above |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Magnolia Oil & Gas stock FAQ
What is Magnolia Oil & Gas’s market cap?
Magnolia Oil & Gas’s market cap is $5.62B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $23.71, with 269.2M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 10.5.
What is the Magnolia Oil & Gas stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Magnolia Oil & Gas is $33.18, +39.9% from the last close. Of the 15 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 12 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Magnolia Oil & Gas stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Magnolia Oil & Gas is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $23.71 is 30.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $34.25. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Magnolia Oil & Gas report earnings next?
Magnolia Oil & Gas is expected to report on Nov 4, 2026 (36 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.60 per share on revenue of $411.1M. Magnolia Oil & Gas beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 2.6% on average across the report.
What is Magnolia Oil & Gas’s 52-week high and low?
Magnolia Oil & Gas’s 52-week high is $32.76 and its 52-week low is $21.07; it closed at $23.71 on Sep 28, 2026, −4.4% over the past year.
Is Magnolia Oil & Gas stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 5 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, smart money, earnings risk and seasonality) and 1 as a headwind (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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